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The Swamp

  • #114,321
  • Jan 10, 2024 6:46am Jan 10, 2024 6:46am
Quoting LoneTrader1
USDCAD Probably going higher above 3415 ??? {image}
A lot of 200 ema. It probably needs a day close .3390+
It looks like the eu.. with all those 200 blocking a drop. The 200 uc blocking the rise.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,322
  • Jan 10, 2024 6:47am Jan 10, 2024 6:47am
[quote=LoneTrader1;14714419]USDCAD Probably going higher above 3415 ??? {image}[/quote

I have 405 .. but no trade on this pair for me till after the news tomorrow
  • #114,323
  • Jan 10, 2024 6:52am Jan 10, 2024 6:52am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} not today I think, but I’m not a long-term trader(position trader).
Me too, if it clearly breaks that resistance could be a long, I think. I don't trade it though, that's why asked.
  • #114,324
  • Jan 10, 2024 6:59am Jan 10, 2024 6:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A lot of 200 ema. It probably needs a day close .3390+ It looks like the eu.. with all those 200 blocking a drop. The 200 uc blocking the rise. {image}
would keep an eye on.
  • #114,325
  • Jan 10, 2024 7:00am Jan 10, 2024 7:00am
There may be some decent trades, if the 200 on a bunch of usd crosses breaks. They haven't broke. Trades the other way may be looked at.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,326
  • Jan 10, 2024 7:02am Jan 10, 2024 7:02am
Quoting gatorinla
There may be some decent trades, if the 200 on a bunch of usd crosses.
To me USD looks ready to go higher.
  • #114,327
  • Jan 10, 2024 7:03am Jan 10, 2024 7:03am
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} would keep an eye on.
.8600 can be r/s later EG

A day close may seal it some.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,328
  • Jan 10, 2024 7:21am Jan 10, 2024 7:21am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} .8600 can be r/s later EG A day close may seal it some. {image} {image}
GBP looks way stronger than EU vs USD.
  • #114,329
  • Jan 10, 2024 7:39am Jan 10, 2024 7:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The 6h closes in 1h 45 min. It has a chance to close below 0930. If 0917 attracts. If it was to continue. 1 adr is 0880/81 If the week high is in. 1 wk average range is 160 pips. 0818 month average 0600 {image}
Not today
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,330
  • Jan 10, 2024 7:43am Jan 10, 2024 7:43am
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} GBP looks way stronger than EU vs USD.
It is on the weak eur side. The eur is flexing atm on several pairs
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,331
  • Jan 10, 2024 7:52am Jan 10, 2024 7:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It is on the weak eur side. The eur is flexing atm on several pairs
Right not today.
  • #114,332
  • Jan 10, 2024 8:03am Jan 10, 2024 8:03am
Quoting Ferna
in long
out 0966
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #114,333
  • Jan 10, 2024 9:27am Jan 10, 2024 9:27am
Quoting supertubes
{quote} Well lets hope you get 1015
i’ll leave the big business for the big guys, i’m just trying to pay for the soup and coffee.

will make a little short here for the noodles
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #114,334
  • Jan 10, 2024 9:40am Jan 10, 2024 9:40am
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You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #114,335
  • Jan 10, 2024 11:29am Jan 10, 2024 11:29am
2.5 hs to go. Pa is above 0939.9 st bull side. Its still below 1041. No prediction here. If it closes today below 0930, bears should be back. LC was 0966/67. the 1h 200 is 0968ish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,336
  • Jan 10, 2024 12:03pm Jan 10, 2024 12:03pm
Dollar basket wants 10170....
  • #114,337
  • Jan 10, 2024 1:16pm Jan 10, 2024 1:16pm
Short SP 4785 ...
  • #114,338
  • Jan 10, 2024 2:28pm Jan 10, 2024 2:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
The World bank is predicting the worst 1/2 decade in 30 years. https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/media...obal%20economy. To me the economy, with the best outlook is likely the U.S.A. Those higher interest rates will hurt emerging economies. Plus many loans are paid back in USD. What can one do with this? Maybe short the AUD verse usd
I'm a bit biased towards emerging nations since a year or two back.. There is some IMF data which suggests the same.
I think the 'west' will just float around in terms of GDP growth.

That their debt is in US dollar can actually be beneficial for their currencies also, as a lower value of the dollar will make buying their debt cheaper, so there will be an inflow of capital boosting their currency.
So in terms of opportunity there can be alot more in emerging nations, as also the policymakers have an interest in these countries.

Here are two charts from International Monetary Fund(IMF) of predictions/outcome of real GDP growth throughout the world, for 2023 and 2024. Of course this can all change with war.
https://www.imf.org/external/datamap...UY/SUR/BRA/COL
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You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #114,339
  • Jan 10, 2024 3:24pm Jan 10, 2024 3:24pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} I'm a bit biased towards emerging nations since a year or two back.. There is some IMF data which suggests the same. I think the 'west' will just float around in terms of GDP growth. That their debt is in US dollar can actually be beneficial for their currencies also, as a lower value of the dollar will make buying their debt cheaper, so there will be an inflow of capital boosting their currency. So in terms of opportunity there can be alot more in emerging nations, as also the policymakers have an interest in these countries. Here are two...
The problem being money borrowed. For example a sewer system/drinking water for a emerging city. The money borrowed to build it. Is borrowed in usd. It's to be paid back in usd. If the borrowers currency has lost value versus the usd. It takes a lot more of a countries wealth to pay it back. Money for other needs can shrink. This can enslave a country. Let's say the value of the borrowers currency loses 5% in a trend. A 5% loss in the future trending can be a lot more. The value of the currency is dropping, making the payments higher. This has been a problem for a while. More when the country defaults and unable to borrow. That entire country suffers. Inflation within the country while the currency is worth less to the usd.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,340
  • Jan 10, 2024 4:59pm Jan 10, 2024 4:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The problem being money borrowed. For example a sewer system/drinking water for a emerging city. The money borrowed to build it. Is borrowed in usd. It's to be paid back in usd. If the borrowers currency has lost value versus the usd. It takes a lot more of a countries wealth to pay it back. Money for other needs can shrink. This can enslave a country. Let's say the value of the borrowers currency loses 5% in a trend. A 5% loss in the future trending can be a lot more. The value of the currency is dropping, making the payments higher. This...
When countries default or need debt restructuring. It helps dry up credit for that country, and others. Research this, you will find it can make poor countries poorer. It can also invite countries such as China to rule a countries strawman. This leaves room for a country to lose some independence. Countries rich with natural resources may be robbed. That is part of the reason the world bank exist. To stop such things. It dont always work.
Things may seem fine when a loan is taking out. 5 or 10+ years down the road things may change. On a 30 or 50 year loan. Banks can't know the geopolitical futures. Or the complex future of global slowdowns, wars, drought, or whatever.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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