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Attachments: Great GBP/USD Strategy for Swing Trades
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Great GBP/USD Strategy for Swing Trades

  • #781
  • Jun 19, 2007 5:57am Jun 19, 2007 5:57am
Quoting VyNNeR
A very difficult day to trade on cable ..
Close my short for a small lost -5 pips ..
Hope you guys do better than me.

VyNNeR
How were you short? As to your system its a long on GBP/USD?
  • #782
  • Jun 19, 2007 7:14am Jun 19, 2007 7:14am
Hi all

Yesterday according to a system I got the signal to go long which I did; I just closed the position cause got scared for the upcoming news, but I got +45 pips which I think is great.

Dear VyNNer,

Did I do something wrong cause you said you went short? Where you watching the other indicators? Cause the signal still is for long.

Thank you
  • #783
  • Jun 19, 2007 7:48am Jun 19, 2007 7:48am
Sorry guys .. i think i confused you guys on the short .
It is another trade not based on my swing setup.

Just ignore my short there.

Hope you guys are protecting some of your long profits.



VyNNeR
  • #784
  • Jun 19, 2007 7:48am Jun 19, 2007 7:48am
long? short? long? mixed day today.

Quoting VyNNeR
A very difficult day to trade on cable ..
Close my short for a small lost -5 pips ..
Hope you guys do better than me.

VyNNeR
  • #785
  • Jun 19, 2007 8:04am Jun 19, 2007 8:04am
Quoting Peacelover
This may sound really stupid but what is LRI? can someone help?
Tikin introduced the Linear Regression Indicator to the thread, as an add-on to VyNNeR's method. See post 686 and 701.
  • #786
  • Jun 19, 2007 12:30pm Jun 19, 2007 12:30pm
LRI .. how to determined when to exit ?? i still cannot get it..
  • #787
  • Jun 19, 2007 1:04pm Jun 19, 2007 1:04pm
Hi, Read this attached document to understand about LRI, hope it will be useful.


Quoting oei168
LRI .. how to determined when to exit ?? i still cannot get it..
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Linear Regression Line.doc   58 KB | 674 downloads
  • #788
  • Jun 20, 2007 5:13am Jun 20, 2007 5:13am
Hi all,

since last signal the system still is showing to go long, no signs on exit. Am I right?
Today after news opened the position at 1.9900 and just closed at 1.9933. I do not like that I am entering and then closing positions maybe to early? Maybe anyone could explain how to get the right signal on exiting?

Thank you very much
  • #789
  • Jun 20, 2007 5:41am Jun 20, 2007 5:41am
Hi,
My entry signal was 1.9820, there is no exit signal until the EMA4 crosses the EMA13 which has not occured, remember this system is long term and the best profits are achieved with patience, the move from the signal is now over 100 pips.

Hope you're all still hanging in there ?

mattfx
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #790
  • Jun 20, 2007 5:55am Jun 20, 2007 5:55am
Quoting mattfx
Hi,
My entry signal was 1.9820, there is no exit signal until the EMA4 crosses the EMA13 which has not occured, remember this system is long term and the best profits are achieved with patience, the move from the signal is now over 100 pips.

Hope you're all still hanging in there ?

mattfx
I am long since the 18th. +95 pips.
  • #791
  • Jun 20, 2007 6:00am Jun 20, 2007 6:00am
Quoting mattfx
Hi,
My entry signal was 1.9820, there is no exit signal until the EMA4 crosses the EMA13 which has not occured, remember this system is long term and the best profits are achieved with patience, the move from the signal is now over 100 pips.

Hope you're all still hanging in there ?

mattfx

Thanks for explaining - yes I have some problems with patience but will try to do better
  • #792
  • Jun 20, 2007 6:27am Jun 20, 2007 6:27am
Hi again,

The problem is that when you kill the trade too early you may miss out on a "big" move. This system depends on staying with the trade until you see the exit signal. I have proved the profitability of this system with over 100 back trades all meticulously analysed manualy according to the rules of this strategy and recorded in my previous posts, and guess what ? It works and can make millionaires of any one of us. This system depends on these "big" moves "big" moves = "big" profits. You must decide whether you are a "day" trader, (short term) or in for the "long" term using a strategy such as this. Like most strategies it is never conquered in a day.

Have a great Day !

mattfx
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #793
  • Jun 20, 2007 6:36am Jun 20, 2007 6:36am
i think LRI .. isn't working to this case.. GU
its give you the false exit.. 19865 ..

and in fact the ema 13 and 4 ..not yet cross.. and still shoot up to 1.9--
  • #794
  • Edited 10:19am Jun 20, 2007 9:16am | Edited 10:19am
Quoting mattfx
Hi again,
Here is the past analysis (all performed manualy) of the last 109 trades for this system. These have been performed with no regard to the stochs,
trade 104 to 109 have been performed in "live" conditions

mattfx
Thanks for posting your analysis. I am about to post the same analysis using FXCM's tic data. Where is your test data from? I think it will be interesting to note the differences.

Please could you let me know if your rules differ to what follows. This is the logic for LONGs only, i'll also be testing the short side:

This assumes that 4ema will already have crossed the 50ema by the time the 13ema crosses the 50ema.
Not tested with stochastics.

NAME: 4x13x50
PAIR: GBP/USD
TRADE DIRECTION: Long

ENTRY SIGNALS
13x50 ema Type: Moving Average
Interval: 4 Hour
Notification Type:Entry
Signal Activates: When EMA13 crosses EMA50
ENTRY TYPE: Market Entry

ENTRY SCHEDULE Sunday: From 2:00 PM to 12:00 AM Monday: ALL DAY Tuesday: ALL DAY Wednesday: ALL DAY Thursday: ALL DAY Friday: From 12:00 AM to 4:00 PM

DOWNSIDE PROTECTION
CONTEXTUAL EXIT - 4X13X50 CE
RANGE: 0 to 10000
FIXED PIPS: 50

PROFIT-TAKING STRATEGY: Signal based exit
EXIT SIGNALS 4x13 exit
Type: Moving Average
Interval: 4 Hour
Notification Type: Exit
Signal Activates: When EMA4 crosses EMA13

SIGNAL EXIT TYPE: Market exit
  • #795
  • Jun 20, 2007 10:48am Jun 20, 2007 10:48am
hmm breakeven across long and short trades. Nothing like the results Mattfx kindly posted....does anyone else have poor test results over the same period?
Attached File(s)
File Type: xml 4x13x50 FXCM TIC.xml   57 KB | 560 downloads
  • #796
  • Jun 20, 2007 10:53am Jun 20, 2007 10:53am
Quoting ChowClown
hmm breakeven across long and short trades. Nothing like the results Mattfx kindly posted....does anyone else have poor test results over the same period?

CHowClown,

did you filter your entries using the stochs in the daily?


Ohhh..... sorry. I didn't read your note in your post in which you already answer this question. My bad!!!!

Maybe the stochs filter is necessary to avoid the bad trades. I have not tested it, but it is there for a reason....I'd say
  • #797
  • Jun 20, 2007 10:56am Jun 20, 2007 10:56am
Quoting alcastro
CHowClown,

did you filter your entries using the stochs in the daily?
No, i wanted to try and replicate the test results mattfx provided. He didn't use stochs either.
  • #798
  • Jun 20, 2007 11:05am Jun 20, 2007 11:05am
Quoting alcastro
Maybe the stochs filter is necessary to avoid the bad trades. I have not tested it, but it is there for a reason....I'd say
...no worries. Maybe but Matt's results (without the stochs) were very encouraging!
  • #799
  • Edited 6:54am Jun 21, 2007 6:22am | Edited 6:54am
...2001 - 2007 backtest attached. Not something I could trade mechanically as it stands (through FXCM). Perhaps the real strength of the method is down to discretionary input around the entry/exit signals, as VyNNeR has suggested in previous posts, around key areas of support/resistance.

Hopefully someone else will provide a backtest using other spot tic data (the results attached include slippage and a 5 pip spread). Perhaps the data i've been supplied with is inaccurate?! I wish it was, i like the method and was very surprised to see results so much at odds with Mattfx's testing.

Good trading.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xml VyNNeR 01-07 BckTest.xml   122 KB | 691 downloads
  • #800
  • Jun 21, 2007 6:48am Jun 21, 2007 6:48am
Hello all,

I think we are now touching on one of the most difficult subjects when trading, and that is, the exit strategy, yet this should not concern us, this strategy provides excellent entry and exit signals for those wishing to be "mechanical" traders, which is my objective.

However the "chimp" brain and the "descendants" of chimps are not geared up to trading the forex. Which is not surprising, imagine that !
So as a fellow "chimp" with a "chimp" brain I am also challenging every trade I take !

How do we deal with this ? We must find a strategy that does not rely on the way our brains have evolved, lets face it, our brains are not geared for trading the forex and this is what we need to deal with.

Good Luck all

mattfx
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
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