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  • #186,421
  • Jan 9, 2024 10:38am Jan 9, 2024 10:38am
Its the last chance for the bull before a deeper drop.

1 hour
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #186,422
  • Jan 9, 2024 10:54am Jan 9, 2024 10:54am
Well done to the bears on 15M chart, they did great;
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  • #186,423
  • Jan 9, 2024 10:54am Jan 9, 2024 10:54am
Be careful with shorts.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #186,424
  • Jan 9, 2024 11:27am Jan 9, 2024 11:27am
Risk sentiment looks worst today after mondays bounce, seems that the bulls have second thoughts about thursdays cpi release, but eu is not out of the probability to rise above 1.0980 again. For now its good to stay out until more good news come out, but the bear could easy lead eu lower until then.

Thanks for reading, see you tomorrow for any update. Have a great rest of the trading day!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #186,425
  • Jan 9, 2024 11:35am Jan 9, 2024 11:35am
For the bulls to follow the path they will have to maintain the D1 opening above 1.09376, the water is starting to boil, one of them will be cooked. X ... ().
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"No pain no gain"
  • #186,426
  • Jan 9, 2024 11:46am Jan 9, 2024 11:46am
Quoting pedro319
Be careful with shorts.
Previous highs likely to be taken out.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #186,427
  • Jan 9, 2024 12:03pm Jan 9, 2024 12:03pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Meanwhile, on H4... The pressure cooker is coming to an end to hold the collected steam. It must explode at some point! The "Cup & Handle" pattern can not play out without a break above 1.0989 area... If Euro zone news or numbers interfere negatively (for example: hints of German recession), bears could drag this down to 1.0863... MACD is currently supporting bears! My suggestion: trade extra carefully or better: stay out! Best wishes {image}
Last point last part was Best advice for the day!

Cheers
  • #186,428
  • Jan 9, 2024 12:27pm Jan 9, 2024 12:27pm
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} I don't think it should work, but it could work and placed a trade to find out. Secondly I don't go in that much detail about trends as it's just a scalp trade with tiny SL. And I don't mind criticism and discussing trade setups, but before entry or right after the entry, not when my trade position is struggling.
The hard, cold reality of trading is that every trade has an uncertain outcome. "Mark Douglas"

The day I shorted EU at 1.0969 most traders were expecting 1.10, My trade had SL at 1.0981 was 3 pips away from SL. Today EU hit 1.0910.
one third of the position is still open till breakeven or TP at 1.0905
as "Anything can happen" and "every moment in the market is unique".

Mark Douglas
When I put on a trade, all I expect is that something will happen.

Mark Douglas
  • #186,429
  • Jan 9, 2024 1:09pm Jan 9, 2024 1:09pm
Quoting pedro319
Be careful with shorts.
I agree with you, I'm looking at D1, it could reach 120 seeds tomorrow...
"No pain no gain"
  • #186,430
  • Jan 9, 2024 1:14pm Jan 9, 2024 1:14pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} Previous highs likely to be taken out.
Hi Pedro
Please explain what you mean
Half of the time, the market is building resistance and support levels, and
  • #186,431
  • Jan 9, 2024 1:19pm Jan 9, 2024 1:19pm
Quoting LoneTrader1
The hard, cold reality of trading is that every trade has an uncertain outcome. "Mark Douglas"
"Truth bomb!"
Quoting LoneTrader1
The day I shorted EU at 1.0969 most traders were expecting 1.10,
I did not. Still short since 1,0945
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #186,432
  • Jan 9, 2024 1:21pm Jan 9, 2024 1:21pm
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} The hard, cold reality of trading is that every trade has an uncertain outcome. "Mark Douglas" The day I shorted EU at 1.0969 most traders were expecting 1.10, My trade had SL at 1.0981 was 3 pips away from SL. Today EU hit 1.0910. one third of the position is still open till breakeven or TP at 1.0905 as "Anything can happen" and "every moment in the market is unique". Mark Douglas When I put on a trade, all I expect is that something will happen. Mark Douglas
This is true and the probabilities of a strategy in general are not fixed or actually known just estimated. When you begin thinking in this way it opens a whole new world of trading potential, that is working on having real - compelling propensity behind a trade, as that gives it the best chance of success rather than somewhat arbitrary past performance strategy/edge. I do then believe that knowing/having significant propensity to a trade allows you to much more accurately estimate the probability of the trades success etc especially when using a multitude of uncorrelated factors.

I think the whole trading community needs to wake up and start questioning if their trades have any propensity behind them or are they just gambling and trading two arbitrary lines crossing and so on.

Your chosen quote is great and I believe it coincides with what I said, in that all trades (moments) are unique and cannot be accurately predicted using past performance alone. It is a somewhat scary to accept the fact we don't control the fate of any one trade but its one you soon embrace as it is this risk that eventually pays (or breaks) us!
Seeking Fair Value
  • #186,433
  • Jan 9, 2024 1:36pm Jan 9, 2024 1:36pm
Quoting pedro319
Be careful with shorts.
I went long on the opposite of this pair. The shorts are still suspicious. Let's see how tomorrow goes.
  • #186,434
  • Jan 9, 2024 1:43pm Jan 9, 2024 1:43pm
Quoting Erkat
{quote} Hi Pedro Please explain what you mean
The last H4 candle turned the macd signal, unless there is a close below 1.0910 (same tf) the highs of yesterday could be challenged.
Also the area around 1.0905 is confluence zone and bounces are likely.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #186,435
  • Jan 9, 2024 1:46pm Jan 9, 2024 1:46pm
Quoting makingmoves
{quote} This is true and the probabilities of a strategy in general are not fixed or actually known just estimated. When you begin thinking in this way it opens a whole new world of trading potential, that is working on having real - compelling propensity behind a trade, as that gives it the best chance of success rather than somewhat arbitrary past performance strategy/edge. I do then believe that knowing/having significant propensity to a trade allows you to much more accurately estimate the probability of the trades success etc especially when...
I never had a mentor but accept that guy ( Mark Douglas) as my mentor. May his soul rest in peace. It won't be easy but if we could trade with that mindset nothing can stop us from making money as the markets are filled with it. It's all in the mind.
  • #186,436
  • Jan 9, 2024 1:46pm Jan 9, 2024 1:46pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} I went long on the opposite of this pair. The shorts are still suspicious. Let's see how tomorrow goes.
The context is bearish but I have made couple hundred pips from this support alone.
It should break at some point though.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #186,437
  • Jan 9, 2024 3:06pm Jan 9, 2024 3:06pm
My perspective,

For sure, nothing is granted but I see a bearish flag well formed on the 1 hour chart.

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At the end of it, I see the inflation numbers (red line) coming on Thursday like an elephant charging against us, beware...

I bet another beer that any break before the elephant could be a trap, but as always, if it happens, it has half a chance to be right as no one has an idea of what the inflation numbers will be...

All this is very intangible so the only thing that remains is good money management, our own rules and protective measures against the unexpected.
Good luck to all...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #186,438
  • Jan 9, 2024 4:04pm Jan 9, 2024 4:04pm
If to return to 1.1270. then the long-term trend will break.
  • #186,439
  • Jan 9, 2024 5:24pm Jan 9, 2024 5:24pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} The context is bearish but I have made couple hundred pips from this support alone. It should break at some point though.
Yes. Back firmly below monthly pivot 1.0967. I don't have a trade here. The other is still above it's mobthly pivot. I will check again to see what happens tomorrow. At the back of my mind it appears the NFP data effect is yet to kick in.
  • #186,440
  • Jan 9, 2024 8:48pm Jan 9, 2024 8:48pm
Quoting johncen
EU in ranging mode, no trade while we are in between daily and weekly pivot. Price can go either direction for sure. My 1h and 4h {image} {image}
we have been in range trading since my last post. Nothing much to do for now. Lets wait for a break out
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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