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  • #186,261
  • Jan 4, 2024 9:22am Jan 4, 2024 9:22am
if we break above 1.09629.. am adding more positions.
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  • #186,262
  • Jan 4, 2024 9:24am Jan 4, 2024 9:24am
Quoting yvestrcz
{quote} Well, I have to agree that despite fundamentals that should be more than supportive to US$, bulls seem to have resumed control as of now.
I often witness that behavior, when this thing wants to go in one direction any contrarian news is often just a trap.
I could bet a beer that if tomorrow NFP numbers are good we will see again a spike downward before new highs are printed.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #186,263
  • Jan 4, 2024 11:15am Jan 4, 2024 11:15am
Subtle clues about what might happen next.
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  • #186,264
  • Jan 4, 2024 11:24am Jan 4, 2024 11:24am
Bulls failed to take eurusd to 1.1000 or some higher today but the bigger lossers where the bears which actualy managed to keep it below 1.0972 until now and surprisingly they didn't make it to lower prices because the market may be taking a cautious approach and waiting for further confirmation of the labor market's strength before making any significant moves. Lets hope all to go well!

It will be interesting to learn what tomorrow's NFP data will bring and how traders will respond to the data! Until the morning, have a great rest of the day!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #186,265
  • Jan 4, 2024 12:47pm Jan 4, 2024 12:47pm
15m Chart

Dodged the bullet on the negative impulse. (Stronger then expected, though it shouldn't with the good US data.)

Stop is BE, and if it washes out that is fine. Not willing to risk more downside. Agree that people are sidelined till tomorrow. Too many skeptical bulls.

Will hold the long, but if it washes out at Break even I will wait till after news tomorrow. Classically I don't trade NFP.

Good luck everyone!
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  • #186,266
  • Jan 4, 2024 2:00pm Jan 4, 2024 2:00pm
Quick Thoughts for Friday's NFP

  1. I am noticing a breakout from the steep trendline, but bullish momentum was not enough to drag this higher.
  2. Until the hour of NFP we could see a drop to 1.0913 area (and with momentum maybe even to 1.0888) where I would eventually anticipate supportive pa.
  3. If a dip to mentioned levels happens, I would try to buy as low as I can. Then I would anticipate a rally towards 1.1002 area... Would we get there in the same day? I personally would say no... maybe next week...
  4. Another scenario would be a direct rise to 1.1002 area but again: from experience, I prefer to stick to my "first a drop then a rally" idea!

Best wishes

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #186,267
  • Jan 4, 2024 7:06pm Jan 4, 2024 7:06pm
Possibly the price will continue to move within the Monthly Pivot / Daily Pivot channel until tomorrow at NFP time...
The price shown in the image below may be that of the start time.
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I'm looking at Pivot Weekly as a target.
Happy 1st Friday of the year everyone!
"No pain no gain"
  • #186,268
  • Jan 4, 2024 10:41pm Jan 4, 2024 10:41pm
EU lost some momentum, but still not out of the possibility to rise to 1.1000, support for that is at 1.0932/14 and 1.0892. A break lower opens the road to 1.0865/62 first. Resistance is at 1.0972 to the road of 1.1000/16 checkpoint. Good luck to all!

Daily volatility (range) - 99 pips

Significant news - US Nonfarm Payrolls & US Factory Orders.

4 hours
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  • #186,269
  • Jan 4, 2024 11:21pm Jan 4, 2024 11:21pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
EU lost some momentum, but still not out of the possibility to rise to 1.1000, support for that is at 1.0932/14 and 1.0892. A break lower opens the road to 1.0865/62 first. Resistance is at 1.0972 to the road of 1.1000/16 checkpoint. Good luck to all! Daily volatility (range) - 99 pips Significant news - US Nonfarm Payrolls & US Factory Orders. 4 hours {image}
with a close below 0940 inverted h&s no more. Bear took back the driver seat for now
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #186,270
  • Jan 5, 2024 12:16am Jan 5, 2024 12:16am
Quoting johncen
{quote} with a close below 0940 inverted h&s no more. Bear took back the driver seat for now
Just for this morning, later well see more volatility at the nfp!

30 min
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  • #186,271
  • Jan 5, 2024 12:29am Jan 5, 2024 12:29am
Yet another twist!!
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  • #186,272
  • Jan 5, 2024 1:08am Jan 5, 2024 1:08am
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  • #186,273
  • Jan 5, 2024 1:09am Jan 5, 2024 1:09am
For now and based on H1, we must see if 1.0920/25 area acts supportive or not.. Waiting for London opening...
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #186,274
  • Jan 5, 2024 2:12am Jan 5, 2024 2:12am
Just Short and TP, Today
Maybe Tommorrow also Short.

Dare not to push Long button
Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #186,275
  • Jan 5, 2024 2:37am Jan 5, 2024 2:37am
I would not write bulls off yet.
1.0880 is strong support and there are reversal patterns forming. Once that support is taken out then even 1.07 is fair game.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #186,276
  • Jan 5, 2024 2:42am Jan 5, 2024 2:42am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} You could be right, it took to long to drop 1 hour {image}
1 hour graph yesterdays us jobs result bearish target finally met (look at quote link) now its up to you to decide what next for the eurusd, for me scalping and exiting before the news happen is the wisest!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #186,277
  • Jan 5, 2024 2:50am Jan 5, 2024 2:50am
Quoting puzzlemaster
Hi I'm New here , it seems that the first month of the year is bearish.
as expected it will be a bearish month, it will fall around 1.0770, by the end week of the month.
  • #186,278
  • Jan 5, 2024 2:52am Jan 5, 2024 2:52am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} 1 hour graph yesterdays us jobs result bearish target finally met (look at quote link) now its up to you to decide what next for the eurusd, for me scalping and exiting before the news happen is the wisest!
that is defintely wise to avoid non-farm as it is kind of like gambling. If we follow the same way as ADP we should see 0880 or even 0860. 0860 final gate to me
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #186,279
  • Jan 5, 2024 2:59am Jan 5, 2024 2:59am
Quoting johncen
{quote} that is defintely wise to avoid non-farm as it is kind of like gambling. If we follow the same way as ADP we should see 0880 or even 0860. 0860 final gate to me
agree with you!

Here is a joke while waiting!

Why did the trader cross the road? To avoid the volatility of the NFP release!

Trading can be intense and tiring, so it's important to take breaks and recharge!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #186,280
  • Jan 5, 2024 3:21am Jan 5, 2024 3:21am
Quoting pedro319
I would not write bulls off yet. 1.0880 is strong support and there are reversal patterns forming. Once that support is taken out then even 1.07 is fair game.
Bouncing as it should, if price comes back down it will be to test 1.0880.
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