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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,221
  • Jun 19, 2007 7:20am Jun 19, 2007 7:20am
Hi all

Just my 2 cents worth. I wouldnt go against the EU trade as
1) counter trend. If you want to go in make sure u have loads of reasons for doing so

2) Trendline. It has yet to touch the upper trendline, plus the MAs is in the way...u may want to see some price weakness before going in.

3) MACD is only a confirmation and visual guide. Not a signal.

4) Price momentum still intact. You probably like to see the price touching the 8ma few times before gg against the trade.

I went in for usd/CHF...20pips profit good enuff in a slow week..so far.

cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,222
  • Jun 19, 2007 7:26am Jun 19, 2007 7:26am
hi guys,

I had a very bad loosing streak with this system for the last two weeks,
maybe someone can show me my errors, I would be very grateful.

Here are a few trades:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.gif Size: 11 KB


Trade 1: 15.06.2007 at 12:00 candle
Instrument: EURO
MACD: Reject from Zero
Market emotion: Price is below MA89, went back to the EMA21 made a
shooting star at ema 21
Outcome: -30 pips


Trade 2: 18.06.2007 at 16:00 candle
Instrument: EURO
MACD: Round top
Market emotion: All moving are going together, however a shooting star at MA89 and a round top indicates a short trades for me
Outcome: -25 pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: loonie.gif Size: 14 KB

Trade 3: 14.06.2007 at 20:00
Instrument: Loonie (USD/CAD)
MACD: TC pattern
Market emotion: Price came from below MA89 went up, came back to

MA89; the reject from the MA89 and the TC MACD
pattern came at the same time, so LONG
SL: Below EMA21
Outcome: -30 pips


Trade 4 and 5 where theoretical trades I couldnīt take, they would have bring 60 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yen.gif Size: 11 KB


Trade 6: 18.06.2007 at 12:00
Instrument: EUR/JPY
MACD: Round Top
Market emotion: we are in a strong up move, however a nive round top
should be taken,
So SHORT. Outcome: -30 pips


Thank you for any comment.

br
panther_trader
  • #5,223
  • Jun 19, 2007 9:03am Jun 19, 2007 9:03am
Hi panther,

Keep trying!! I just started as well.

My suggestion are start drawing trendlines and Support and Resistant!
From your post, it seems ur trade entries are based mainly on MACD. If you go thru all philips's mp3 u will noticed he will keep emphasis 1) market ryhtem, 2) Trendlines 3) support and resistant.

After sometime, you will realised what he is talking abt!

Good luck, keep practising!


Quoting panther_trader
hi guys,

I had a very bad loosing streak with this system for the last two weeks,
maybe someone can show me my errors, I would be very grateful.

Here are a few trades:
Attachment

Trade 1: 15.06.2007 at 12:00 candle
Instrument: EURO
MACD: Reject from Zero
Market emotion: Price is below MA89, went back to the EMA21 made a
shooting star at ema 21
Outcome: -30 pips


Trade 2: 18.06.2007 at 16:00 candle
Instrument: EURO
MACD: Round top
Market emotion: All moving are going together, however a shooting star at MA89 and a round top indicates a short trades for me
Outcome: -25 pips

Attachment
Trade 3: 14.06.2007 at 20:00
Instrument: Loonie (USD/CAD)
MACD: TC pattern
Market emotion: Price came from below MA89 went up, came back to

MA89; the reject from the MA89 and the TC MACD
pattern came at the same time, so LONG
SL: Below EMA21
Outcome: -30 pips


Trade 4 and 5 where theoretical trades I couldnīt take, they would have bring 60 pips.

Attachment

Trade 6: 18.06.2007 at 12:00
Instrument: EUR/JPY
MACD: Round Top
Market emotion: we are in a strong up move, however a nive round top
should be taken,
So SHORT. Outcome: -30 pips


Thank you for any comment.

br
panther_trader
  • #5,224
  • Jun 19, 2007 9:16am Jun 19, 2007 9:16am
Quoting panther_trader
hi guys,

I had a very bad loosing streak with this system for the last two weeks,
maybe someone can show me my errors, I would be very grateful.

Here are a few trades:
Attachment

Trade 1: 15.06.2007 at 12:00 candle
Instrument: EURO
MACD: Reject from Zero
Market emotion: Price is below MA89, went back to the EMA21 made a
shooting star at ema 21
Outcome: -30 pips


Trade 2: 18.06.2007 at 16:00 candle
Instrument: EURO
MACD: Round top
Market emotion: All moving are going together, however a shooting star at MA89 and a round top indicates a short trades for me
Outcome: -25 pips

Attachment
Trade 3: 14.06.2007 at 20:00
Instrument: Loonie (USD/CAD)
MACD: TC pattern
Market emotion: Price came from below MA89 went up, came back to

MA89; the reject from the MA89 and the TC MACD
pattern came at the same time, so LONG
SL: Below EMA21
Outcome: -30 pips


Trade 4 and 5 where theoretical trades I couldnīt take, they would have bring 60 pips.

Attachment

Trade 6: 18.06.2007 at 12:00
Instrument: EUR/JPY
MACD: Round Top
Market emotion: we are in a strong up move, however a nive round top
should be taken,
So SHORT. Outcome: -30 pips


Thank you for any comment.

br
panther_trader
Panther - you are on the right track - its just your timing and your perception of the indicators are slightly out of whack.

When considering MACD trends (such as determining round tops. etc) - you should also consider which level the MACD is at. Since the MACD measures momentum, a round top about .0045, would still see the trend move slightly upwards, as you have experienced in previous trades.

At lower levels, the momentum might not be so strong, so your timing for entry could be a lot earlier.

When determining patterns in the MACD, you should only use them as an indicator as a possible reversal/continuation pattern, compiled alongside other data, such as your support resistance lines and your MA's.

You have done well analysing MA's and how price has been interacting between them, perhaps being more critical on the MA's and looking at the shorter time frames also (such as the 8 and 21) and seeing where they are positioned also, could help you a lot more, as price tends to move back to these MA's and tends to ride them.

Your on the right track, and your doing extremely well - just keep listening in on Phils and the others posts, and you should be churning positive trades in no time

Cheers

Rusty
  • #5,225
  • Jun 19, 2007 10:35am Jun 19, 2007 10:35am
Panther:

For the EURO$: You 'should have' already been long from about June 13 from the Rb. I know this is after the fact but that was my entry point for a long and held until the 89, or scaled out at that point I should say.

For the Loonie, I don't trade that but the volatility of those bars would have kept me away.

For the Yen, tough one. That was a very strong trend to the upside and I'm sure that you were not the only one that took a loss. The Yen was blowing through previous highs on the daily chart and kept going so take a look at the higher timeframes as well.

Add the trendlines, Fib #'s, channels, and S/R levels as stated before. Only look at 1 or 2 currencies at the most and don't hunt for trades.

You haven't really done anything wrong. I stated in a previous post where I printed out the 4hr charts from the beginning of the year for the EURO$ and USDJPY and made hand written notes on them where Rb's, Rt's and Tc's happened. This is a very good routine to do once a month. The images that you write down on paper, not on the computer screen, get stuck in your head in a good way.....

Hope some of this helps.
  • #5,226
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:04am Jun 19, 2007 11:04am
Anybody use this strategy with Fibonacci lines?

And in which pairs this MACD strategy better trading?

Thanks a lot
  • #5,227
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:15am Jun 19, 2007 11:15am
In the same pothole - the VT trade near 89MA. I've opened my trade on the opening of the second red candle being formed.

Afterwards I've realised one should wait for a possible lower high before going short. Or the pullback to the 21MA and and a TC trade (with proper signal) long.

I though I saw resistance near the 89MA but not to be.

As long as you know why it was a wrong deal!!!!!!!!!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euru$ 20070619 trade1.jpg Size: 68 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #5,228
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:21am Jun 19, 2007 11:21am
Quoting panther_trader
hi guys,

I had a very bad loosing streak with this system for the last two weeks,
maybe someone can show me my errors, I would be very grateful.

Here are a few trades:
Attachment

Trade 1: 15.06.2007 at 12:00 candle
Instrument: EURO
MACD: Reject from Zero
Market emotion: Price is below MA89, went back to the EMA21 made a
shooting star at ema 21
Outcome: -30 pips


Trade 2: 18.06.2007 at 16:00 candle
Instrument: EURO
MACD: Round top
Market emotion: All moving are going together, however a shooting star at MA89 and a round top indicates a short trades for me
Outcome: -25 pips

Attachment
Trade 3: 14.06.2007 at 20:00
Instrument: Loonie (USD/CAD)
MACD: TC pattern
Market emotion: Price came from below MA89 went up, came back to

MA89; the reject from the MA89 and the TC MACD
pattern came at the same time, so LONG
SL: Below EMA21
Outcome: -30 pips


Trade 4 and 5 where theoretical trades I couldnīt take, they would have bring 60 pips.

Attachment

Trade 6: 18.06.2007 at 12:00
Instrument: EUR/JPY
MACD: Round Top
Market emotion: we are in a strong up move, however a nive round top
should be taken,
So SHORT. Outcome: -30 pips


Thank you for any comment.

br
panther_trader

Info
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro1.gif Size: 15 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip EurUsd.zip   849 KB | 1,728 downloads
  • #5,229
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:21am Jun 19, 2007 11:21am
I saw this head and shoulder set-up on the EURGBP yesterday after a bounch of the 89MA. I though I can give it a go.

I've closed half my position today after 10pips and moved SL to BE. My aim is the low at 0.6725
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp 20070619 trade1.jpg Size: 63 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #5,230
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:46am Jun 19, 2007 11:46am
Info
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUsd.jpg Size: 57 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip EurUsd.zip   842 KB | 1,788 downloads
  • #5,231
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:58am Jun 19, 2007 11:58am
Quoting yellowbrick
i use ibfx mt4 and my pivot indicator work fine at monday. try it.
Thank you for sharing.

Lynn
  • #5,232
  • Jun 19, 2007 12:06pm Jun 19, 2007 12:06pm
Quoting Foricks
Here is the tool that I developed to define my Pivot Points for each day/week. It takes a little excel knowledge, but equations are defined in the cells.
The issue with Weekends is that you have to define the Friday values as starting Thursday night at Midnight 00:00 and the end of day as Sunday night 00:00 to cover the closed market time. For weekly pivots, I go from Friday Close to Friday Close. I am in EST. Let me know if you have any questions. I hope it helps.

Rick
Thanks for sharing your pivot calculator. It can also be used as a point of reference to see H/L etc. Thank you
  • #5,233
  • Jun 19, 2007 12:58pm Jun 19, 2007 12:58pm
A wise man said we would come out smiling......Here is my smile (even if the market is somewhat jacked at the moment, we might as well feel good, eh?)....

:

I feel better already!!!! How bout you???

Happy day all!!!!

Pips
  • #5,234
  • Edited 1:06pm Jun 19, 2007 1:06pm | Edited 1:06pm
Hi Ira,

I saw a post earlier saying you were going to "shut-up" until you traded better....

Please do not silence yourself. Nothing is more frustrating than learning to trade!!! Remember the market is surrounded by uncertainty, not complexity, and every trade entered has an uncertain outcome. Just continue to do your analysis and remember what the good set-ups look like. Wait for the good, high probability trades and enter knowing that the odds are in your favor (not a guaranteed win, but more likely to give you results). You are doing excellently (is that a word? )....just don't give up....ever!! Keep practicing and don't add extra indicators onto your chart....just concentrate on support and resistance for now....

& with that, I'll "shut-up."

May the day be shining brightly for you,
Donna
  • #5,235
  • Jun 19, 2007 2:08pm Jun 19, 2007 2:08pm
Quoting pips4uandme
hi Ira:

This post is in response to your question re: how do I analyze the market pre-trade entry.

Price action is always considered first, MACD is used to confirm momentum and market direction. So, first I must figure out where the market I'm looking at stands in relationship to price. How do I attempt to do this? The tools that I use are:

1. Support and Resistance.

  1. Where are the support and resistance levels on the daily chart? Is price near support? Is it near resistance? Note the levels so they are easy for you to reference. Use support and resistance lines. I also note the Inside top Low directly to the left of current price.
  2. Inside Top Lows and Inside Bottom Highs are used to determine additional s/r levels. These are also potential TP areas when I plan my trade. The daily levels are always given the highest weight in my planning. Make sure you know where price is in relation to these levels. Never go long when price is right below resistance on the daily chart. Wait for price to close above and retrace to the price area. Go long when price retraces to the area if and only if 4 hour MACD supports a long. Short if price closes back under line and MACD gives a signal that supports the short.

The above paragraph describes the major levels I look for....but, I trade off a 4 hour chart...so most of my planning is done off the 4 hour chart (with the 1 exception being daily s & r levels...they are paramount to 4 hour levels and hold the most weight for my trades. I will always know the level and plan trades with an either/or scenario. If data conflicts (level breached but no MACD signal on 1 hour at very least), the trade is passed until entry can be confirmed. (First teir is daily levels, next teir is 4 hour levels. The only level I ever pay attention to on 1 hour chart are Phillip's MA's...they guide me for early entry.

  1. Support and resistance lines from 4 hour chart are next in line. Price must close above the Inside Top Low directly to the left of the chart w/MACD signal confirming momentum/direction. Stop is placed below TL , taking spread and fudge factor into consideration (If I go long based on Inside Bottom pattern, I will also consider the inside bottom Low for my stop, if I go short based on failure of an inside top low, then the inside top high is considered for the stop). Consider the relationship of price to the MA's when entering...If the IT Low is a few pips below one of the MA's, wait for price to close above the MA (I will use the 1 hour for early confirmation at this stage....especially if price is moving through the 89 on the 1 hour. (are you confused yet )...

Again, targets are planned using the 4 hour chart. Early entry can be made (and usually is done) from the 1 hour (only to confirm price closed above/below a threshold and MACD confirms directional move).

The next most important part of my trade style is candlestick patterns...the emotion in the market. The patterns tell me what the market may "feel" at certain price levels (and thus how the mkt may react). Pay attention to the high's and low's of the candles. Double Highs may indicate resistance and possible failure...double lows may indicate a good support. Dojis, and stars are also take notice points. Harami's too. Couple the candles w/simple S & R and basic chart patterns to anticipate the market. OK...This is a lot for 1 lesson .... (I'm also trying to keep an eye on G/J long and G/U long at the moment...)....

I don't use fibs....or any other indicator other than the MACD that Phillip taught us (I love his system, and the way price behaves at the MA's). I plan to enter w/breaks and close at specific s & r levels. When they are confirmed by the MACD, I enter. That's it in a nutshell.

Trades are also entered by anticipating movements away from the MA's...that is where the 1 hour comes into play....we'll save that for another day, eh?

Hope this is helpful....Let me know if you have any questions

Pips

Hello Pip,

Thanks for this post! Your heading said Part 1 I would like to know if there is another part to this post or did you update it in recent days.

Once again, thank you.
Lynn
  • #5,236
  • Jun 19, 2007 2:28pm Jun 19, 2007 2:28pm
Quoting lerner
Hello Pip,

Thanks for this post! Your heading said Part 1 I would like to know if there is another part to this post or did you update it in recent days.

Once again, thank you.
Lynn
Hi lerner!

I was planning on doing a Part 2 explaining how I use the 1 hour, but I really don't think this is such a great idea. There is enough confusion on the forum re: 4 hour (and I don't need to add to the confusion or provide additional ways to look for a trade ). Part 1 really does sum up how I approach my trading plan. Once the plan is in place, a 1 hour chart aids my entry.....

SO HERE IS PART 2

Do not trade from 1 hour chart. Only use it to help you obtain a better entry price than is showing on the 4 hour chart. If the 1 hour MACD is in conflict with the 4 hour, it is a good bet that you will be able to enter the market at a better price and can lower the number of pips necessary for your stop.

I also thought about putting a planning sheet on the forum, but then thought better of it as it might continue to provide confusion. Haven't quite decided yet if I would put my overview sheet on as an example or not.

Talk to you later,

Pips
  • #5,237
  • Jun 19, 2007 2:35pm Jun 19, 2007 2:35pm
Are the MA's setting for the 1 hr chart the same as the 4HR?

Thank you
  • #5,238
  • Edited 4:30pm Jun 19, 2007 3:46pm | Edited 4:30pm
Hi guys, i hope u are not sick of the euro postings yet. but since i am concentrating on it rite now so my posts will be about it, thanks for your patince,
please note that everyone has diff timezones on there platforms so macd and MA may be diff from my charts.

Reasons for not taking the TC signal as pointed by arrow on macd 4 hour chart
1) divergence, macd lower while price going higher
2) bounce off 89 ( good ) but could come back and test it.
3) 8 , 89, and 365 all crossing each other.
4) price below and very close to 89 on daily chart so could bounce off it.

the possibility is that the price might go straight to 200 on the 4 hour. but i think i will wait for price to test 89 again and if it bounces off it combined with a TC signal i might go for it depending on where the rest of the MA are at that point.My previous euro short i closed -10 pips. and a lesson learned.

P.S hello phillip if u are reading this i dont know if i have thanked you enough for your dedication. I;ve decided not to let u and other members of this thread down by failure.even though not all trades will be perfect.Most of all not let my self down bec i know that your system works. and i will make pips. best wishes to u all.
all comments welcome. thankyou.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.jpg Size: 52 KB
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,239
  • Jun 19, 2007 3:54pm Jun 19, 2007 3:54pm
Quoting BIL2205
Hi guys, i hope u are not sick of the euro postings yet. but since i am concentrating on it rite now so my posts will be about it, thanks for your patince,

Reasons for not taking the TC signal as pointed by arrow on macd 4 hour chart
1) divergence, macd lower while price going higher
2) bounce off 89 ( good ) but could come back and test it.
3) 8 , 89, and 365 all crossing each other.
4) price below and very close to 89 on daily chart so could bounce off it.

the possibility is that the price might go straight to 200 on the 4 hour. but i think i will wait for price to test 89 again and if it bounces off it combined with a TC signal i might go for it depending on where the rest of the MA are at that point.My previous euro short i closed -10 pips. and a lesson learned.
all comments welcome. thankyou.

That is well analysed. Now you wait for the High probabilty trade and expect to ride it as long as possible.
  • #5,240
  • Jun 19, 2007 3:59pm Jun 19, 2007 3:59pm
I have analysed the EurUsd as from the dates above and took every MACD signal if the rules is OK. There was 415 pips made in 30 trades, 20 right 10 wrong. I will post Pdf and mp3 tommorrow to show that it pays to stick to 2 currencies only and trade them as often as possible. Only one currency has given 415 in 6+weeks during bad times.

See you tommorrow
Phillip
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