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Part Time Wealth Building System - "Open-Close Trending"

  • #181
  • Apr 25, 2007 8:36am Apr 25, 2007 8:36am
Quoting Scrat
i looked at the daily average for g-j when +/-50 entries worked best, and then i thought i should apply a directly proportional straddle to the other pairs. so i divided g-j daily average with 100 (2*50) and it gave me 2.25; then i picked other pairs and i divided their daily average by this, and i got the straddle value for every one of them. obviously, i can't use a +/-50 straddle on e-usd; but +/-15 (which is ~ 67 daily average / 2.25 /2) works better, at least on a visual check. i adjust this value every day, depending on the daily average value.
i don't know if this works, but i'm giving it a try.
sounds you are more a Turtle than a Squirrel :-)
  • #182
  • Apr 26, 2007 7:39am Apr 26, 2007 7:39am
i'm also using an indicator for weekly average, it should tell you if there's room up or down. statistically, of course. i use this indicator because i take profits and i need to set my stops according to the weekly average (to which i add/subtract one standard deviation... for more safety, of course). yes, i know i should let the trade run but i don't always have the time to adjust entry/stop levels so i prefer smaller gains than some losses.
i have attached the indicator, maybe someone will find it as useful as i have.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 (TSR) Weekly Range.mq4   15 KB | 593 downloads
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #183
  • Apr 26, 2007 8:07am Apr 26, 2007 8:07am
There's a really neat ATR tunnel indicator over
here at
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=23592

Makes a really nice wrapper around the extremes I find.

Also seems to be a very intriguing GBPJPY system, although based on evil repainting things
Still, Team Aphid has taken an interest, so I'm piqued.

Everyone seems to love tunnels
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #184
  • Jun 14, 2007 5:16pm Jun 14, 2007 5:16pm
Hi,

I'm wondering what people's results have been with this system, for those that are following it. What has your experience been so far with forward testing? Has anyone traded live?

What kind of modification/adaptations have people tried? I would be very interested to hear Scrat's results as he seemed to be testing out different variations of this system.

I started following it about 3 weeks ago on a demo acct, and I have had great results on the GPB/JPN and GPB/USD using the basic rules (no modifications). I like this system so much that I'm thinking of writing up an EA for it. It seems very doable.

I'm not a big fan of mechanical trading (although it has its place), and in my opinion EA's take all the fun out of trading. But since i have a 9-5 job and I'm asleep during the London session, I'm not able to follow the charts and make updates during critical hours. So I need an EA that will at the very least update the S/L of open trades and update the limit orders. The EA would also facilitate backtesting and optimizing the different variables.

I would love to hear people's stories with this system, so that I can program different behaviors into the EA based on different strategies. Who would be interested in this kind of EA? With your contributions I can write an EA for a system with much potential.


Thanks all.
  • #185
  • Jun 14, 2007 6:18pm Jun 14, 2007 6:18pm
Quoting superalf
Hi,

I'm wondering what people's results have been with this system, for those that are following it. What has your experience been so far with forward testing? Has anyone traded live?

What kind of modification/adaptations have people tried? I would be very interested to hear Scrat's results as he seemed to be testing out different variations of this system.

I started following it about 3 weeks ago on a demo acct, and I have had great results on the GPB/JPN and GPB/USD using the basic rules (no modifications). I like this system so much that I'm thinking of writing up an EA for it. It seems very doable.

I'm not a big fan of mechanical trading (although it has its place), and in my opinion EA's take all the fun out of trading. But since i have a 9-5 job and I'm asleep during the London session, I'm not able to follow the charts and make updates during critical hours. So I need an EA that will at the very least update the S/L of open trades and update the limit orders. The EA would also facilitate backtesting and optimizing the different variables.

I would love to hear people's stories with this system, so that I can program different behaviors into the EA based on different strategies. Who would be interested in this kind of EA? With your contributions I can write an EA for a system with much potential.


Thanks all.
I have been trading it live and like it. The whipsaws make me crazy so I added a scalp in addition to the rules: If long, I buy an additional lot on the LWMA with SL=50, TP=50. If short I sell on the LWMA. Also consider, your TP on the ribbon, rather than +50.

This is time consuming as you have to adjust your entry point every hour and I would love to try an EA on it!!! I am playing around with h4 & d so I can sleep a few hours but haven't mastered it yet.
  • #186
  • Jun 14, 2007 7:15pm Jun 14, 2007 7:15pm
Quoting Al_Have1
I have been trading it live and like it. The whipsaws make me crazy so I added a scalp in addition to the rules: If long, I buy an additional lot on the LWMA with SL=50, TP=50. If short I sell on the LWMA. Also consider, your TP on the ribbon, rather than +50.

This is time consuming as you have to adjust your entry point every hour and I would love to try an EA on it!!! I am playing around with h4 & d so I can sleep a few hours but haven't mastered it yet.

Thanks for your input, Al_Have1. I like your scalping idea.

Looking at some of the previous posts in this thread I realized others have already written EA's for this system. Not sure if they are using the old rules or the new ones, but I will look to see if I can improve upon these EAs and make them more customizable. I'm also untrusting by nature, so I wouldn't use an EA on a live account unless I know very well who wrote it and that the person is a very good coder.

I'm also looking to implement some of the suggestions to avoid whipsaws, either by not trading at all during these periods, or by some other method.
  • #187
  • Edited Jun 15, 2007 10:59am Jun 14, 2007 7:24pm | Edited Jun 15, 2007 10:59am
Quoting superalf
Thanks for your input, Al_Have1. I like your scalping idea.

Looking at some of the previous posts in this thread I realized others have already written EA's for this system. Not sure if they are using the old rules or the new ones, but I will look to see if I can improve upon these EAs and make them more customizable. I'm also untrusting by nature, so I wouldn't use an EA on a live account unless I know very well who wrote it and that the person is a very good coder.

I'm also looking to implement some of the suggestions to avoid whipsaws, either by not trading at all during these periods, or by some other method.
Would you please point to the EA you mentioned? I have not found one for this.

That is good advise for the EA. It is rare to find one that works as planned.

Here is an example of my past few days. I have since reduced my position because I don't like how G/U & U/J are setting up. I also sell off some on the outer ribbon lines and buy back on the dips (I did not include spreads in the example):

edit: my comment on GU & UJ was because they were on an upper trendline. They have since broken out for a nice gain!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart4.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #188
  • Edited 9:55am Jun 18, 2007 8:53am | Edited 9:55am
The previous EA was posted by Wackena on page 7:

http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=19391&page=7


See post # 96.

But this EA seems to be using the old rules for this system.
  • #189
  • Jun 18, 2007 10:35am Jun 18, 2007 10:35am
my 2 cents are:

you have to use ATR to determine both the trailing stop and TP levels.

as volitility shrinks your TP and stop loss should also.

thats what i am doing on the daily charts with G/Y.

based everything off of a ATR(10). up 458 pips on that pair so far.

allready took a 100 pip profit with 1st lot based on ATR and trailing 2nd lot based on ATR. locked in 310 pips.

seems to be working for me.

that way when volatility shrinks and market moves sideways... your TP and stop loss changes with it.
  • #190
  • Jun 19, 2007 6:39am Jun 19, 2007 6:39am
HAGeek,

Which indicator is the ATR? Is it Average True Range?

Can you explain how you use it to determine your trailing stop and t/p levels?


Thanks.

Quoting HAGeek
my 2 cents are:

you have to use ATR to determine both the trailing stop and TP levels.

as volitility shrinks your TP and stop loss should also.

thats what i am doing on the daily charts with G/Y.

based everything off of a ATR(10). up 458 pips on that pair so far.

allready took a 100 pip profit with 1st lot based on ATR and trailing 2nd lot based on ATR. locked in 310 pips.

seems to be working for me.

that way when volatility shrinks and market moves sideways... your TP and stop loss changes with it.
  • #191
  • Jul 15, 2007 11:27am Jul 15, 2007 11:27am
Well, people I'm still working that EA I promised. Right now I'm just programming it to update prices on open orders and pending orders (the hedge/straddle orders). I have a few bugs to work out, but it's working mostly. Just some annoyances that have to be fixed.

Down the road I will also program the EA so that it also opens new orders.

Note that I'm not using a TP to close orders currently, instead I just keep updating the SL according to the LWMA, so I'm sticking to the system. But this is an area where Tkimble was not very specific, I think he did this so we use discretion here. I'm not sure about using the ATR as someone suggested. No one has gone into detail how to use ATR to calculate a TP, so I'm not sure how to use it.

Stay tuned for further updates on the EA.
  • #192
  • Jul 15, 2007 11:29am Jul 15, 2007 11:29am
By the way, in my demo account this system has provided me with 25% return in one month. Too early to tell yet if its profitable in long term, but very promising nevertheless. The EA will help us backtest in addition to forward testing.
  • #193
  • Jul 19, 2007 10:32pm Jul 19, 2007 10:32pm
Hi All,

I would like to say thanks to "tkimble" for his systems.

I've been reading some of Joe Ross' materials, and a pdf file from 'Joe Ross Trading Manual' chapter 23, his describes a similiar technique call camelback.
Where he uses daily chart with 40sma High and Lows. He also uses 15 ema to
filter out flat spots in price action.

I hope this can help those who are seeking longer time frame.

I don't know if the Administrator would allow me to upload Joe Ross' pdf file.
but here's a link to Joe Ross' website.
I hope this is OK to post.

http://tradingeducators.com/forum/showthread.php?t=197

Christopher
  • #194
  • Jul 26, 2007 2:27am Jul 26, 2007 2:27am
I'm not really clear on the Risk Management Model.

Is the basis simply that we do not risk anymore than 2-3 per cent of our trading account on any one trade ? Or a maximum of 5 per cent if trading multiple pairs ?

mike

Quoting tkimble
The idea is to average 125 PIPs of profit per week. This system will provide that and maybe more. I accept the whipsaw action becuase the system will still yield the 125 PIPs weekly. Focus on the Money Management. That is where you will make the money. Attached is the money management spreadsheet that I use for my demo accounts. You will see that I have weekly monetary goals. As long as I meet or exceed those goals, I do not care about the whipsawing. Whipsawing is part of the price that you must pay if you want to trade. Like taxes and freedom...

Happy Trading,

TK
  • #195
  • Jul 27, 2007 6:43am Jul 27, 2007 6:43am
Hey Mike,

Yeah, I wasn't too clear either on tkimble's risk management. Unfortunately it appears that tkimble has disappeared from the forum as he hasn't posted in months. Hopefully he/she will come back some time in the near future.

I simply risk no more than 2% on any individual trade and I'm trading on GBPJPY and GBPUSD with this system. Very nice returns so far. I can post my demo account results if you like.

I'm also working on an EA for it.


Quoting mikelath
I'm not really clear on the Risk Management Model.

Is the basis simply that we do not risk anymore than 2-3 per cent of our trading account on any one trade ? Or a maximum of 5 per cent if trading multiple pairs ?

mike
  • #196
  • Edited 5:50am Jul 28, 2007 5:46am | Edited 5:50am
Quoting diallist
What I was agreeing with was the caution that FxN was expressing. I do not agree that crossover systems don't work. They can work very well, but one has to use their brain. (I get weary of all the good folks who think silly indicators can solve everything). For example, Jim (james16) showed me a technique that, when applied to a simple moving average crossover system, made it into a reliable strategy.

As to my comments about this method having similarities to the horribly failed system I used to trade, they still hold true. But, to go a bit further, this system is also similar to the Vegas 1 hour tunnel method, which is a good system.

In the end, all FxN and I are saying is to exercise caution, and reasonable judgement when evaluating this system. Will it be like the horrible system, or the Vegas method? Only time and critical evaluation will reveal that. Personally, after looking at it a bit more, I think it has potential if traded with discretion and common sense.

Thanks for asking.

Dial
Trading is a lot like sailing, surfing or cooking. To get a product out of the activity one must know something about the activity. Get in the way of a big wave and it can drown you. Use the force of it. To do that you MUST look. But you must also know what you are looking at and how to evaluate it. But to do that it becomes necessary to know how to surf, sail, cook, trade. Don't believe me go to Hawaii and look at a twenty foot wave and see if your knees don't knock a little bit or enter the EUR/USD just before the release of the Non farm payroll report. Eat your own cooking for awhile and you will either learn how to cook or eat in restaurants a lot. Sail to close to the wind and you will go no where. Sail into a hurricane and your boat can easily flounder and sink. Go into a storm with a thirty foot boat and look up at the ocaen from the trough of 60 foot seas. That knocking sound you'll hear is your soul telling you that it really is a good idea to learn something about the arena you wish to get involved with. If none of the above gives you pause. There is always Bull fighting. I know of a school in Mexico that will teach you if you pay AND sign waivers. It is very easy to form an opinion but defending one in the face of reality is a little more difficult! Besides the only people entitled to an opinion are those that are knowledgable of the subject in question!
  • #197
  • Aug 20, 2007 9:47am Aug 20, 2007 9:47am
Quoting tkimble
The following system is has by far been the most profitable system for me. It has captured 1700 GBP/JPY PIPS in the last two weeks through today.

Rules are likewise very simple but unlike the daily and weekly scalping systems, this system follows the trends:

1. Create 60 minute GBP/JPY bar chart
2. Create a 50 Period HIGH Linear Weighted Moving Average
3. Create a 50 Period LOW Linear Weighted Moving Average
4. Place LONG market entry order at the HIGH Moving Average
5. Place SHORT marekt entry order at the LOW Moving Average
6. Market entries occur at the exact moment that the price hits the market entry orders.
6. Use 50 PIP STOP
7. Adjust the LONG and SHORT market entry orders as the Moving Averages change.
8. Market can get choppy during transition from LONG to SHORT and vice versa.

That is it. Very simple. This system can be adapted to other markets but with smaller or larger Moving Averages.

Below is the current chart that I am trading from and I am currently up 320 PIPS today. Combine this system with the money management system and you will have a sure winner...

Happy Trading,

TK

The following modification, by tkimble, appeared in post 105 of this thread. - diallist

I have modified the system to reduce the whipsawing. The following change has been made:

1. Reduce the moving average from 50 periods to 25 periods
2. Create entry Buy/Sell entry orders 50 PIPS from the moving average. For example, I am currently Long the GBP/JPY at 227.21. The current moving average is 227.78. I have a SHORT entry order at 227.28 and will adjust the entry order hourly on the hourly chart.

You can also make the entry points less than or greater than 50 PIPs. Narrower entry points will create more whipsawing and wider entry points will create less whipsawing.

I will also be posting my last proprietary system which I call the "Twisted Ribbon" system because the graphical indicators resemble a twisted ribbon when created on a chart. Based upon the "Whipsawing" feedback, I suspect most will be more comfortable with the "Twisted Ribbon" trending system...

Happy Trading,

TK
Sorry for asking a simple question - what exactly is "scalping"?
thanks.
  • #198
  • Aug 20, 2007 9:56am Aug 20, 2007 9:56am
Quoting hk334
Trading is a lot like sailing, surfing or cooking. To get a product out of the activity one must know something about the activity. Get in the way of a big wave and it can drown you. Use the force of it. To do that you MUST look. But you must also know what you are looking at and how to evaluate it. But to do that it becomes necessary to know how to surf, sail, cook, trade. Don't believe me go to Hawaii and look at a twenty foot wave and see if your knees don't knock a little bit or enter the EUR/USD just before the release of the Non farm payroll report. Eat your own cooking for awhile and you will either learn how to cook or eat in restaurants a lot. Sail to close to the wind and you will go no where. Sail into a hurricane and your boat can easily flounder and sink. Go into a storm with a thirty foot boat and look up at the ocaen from the trough of 60 foot seas. That knocking sound you'll hear is your soul telling you that it really is a good idea to learn something about the arena you wish to get involved with. If none of the above gives you pause. There is always Bull fighting. I know of a school in Mexico that will teach you if you pay AND sign waivers. It is very easy to form an opinion but defending one in the face of reality is a little more difficult! Besides the only people entitled to an opinion are those that are knowledgable of the subject in question!
It has been very profitable method so far for me with my applied MM techniques.. Thank for the creator and good trading for all.. I like the fact that I do not have to be sticked to the screen.. But you need a lot of discipline and managment. Ie do not tuch your positions until Friday evening. My backtests also showed it works..

Have a good trading to all.

The simpler the better..

ps concentrate on the exit and position and money management. IMHO this is the most important of ALL. To me the entry is 1% of the success. I have tried so many ways.... So many efforts... I say if something takes to much energy to work out leave it... So I do not care where I enter... Just should be systematic.
.
  • #199
  • Aug 20, 2007 9:57am Aug 20, 2007 9:57am
Quoting hk334
Trading is a lot like sailing, surfing or cooking. To get a product out of the activity one must know something about the activity. Get in the way of a big wave and it can drown you. Use the force of it. To do that you MUST look. But you must also know what you are looking at and how to evaluate it. But to do that it becomes necessary to know how to surf, sail, cook, trade. Don't believe me go to Hawaii and look at a twenty foot wave and see if your knees don't knock a little bit or enter the EUR/USD just before the release of the Non farm payroll report. Eat your own cooking for awhile and you will either learn how to cook or eat in restaurants a lot. Sail to close to the wind and you will go no where. Sail into a hurricane and your boat can easily flounder and sink. Go into a storm with a thirty foot boat and look up at the ocaen from the trough of 60 foot seas. That knocking sound you'll hear is your soul telling you that it really is a good idea to learn something about the arena you wish to get involved with. If none of the above gives you pause. There is always Bull fighting. I know of a school in Mexico that will teach you if you pay AND sign waivers. It is very easy to form an opinion but defending one in the face of reality is a little more difficult! Besides the only people entitled to an opinion are those that are knowledgable of the subject in question!

What a great post. Five star.
.
  • #200
  • Aug 20, 2007 10:04am Aug 20, 2007 10:04am
Quoting bullrock
It has been very profitable method so far for me with my applied MM techniques.. Thank for the creator and good trading for all.. I like the fact that I do not have to be sticked to the screen.. But you need a lot of discipline and managment. Ie do not tuch your positions until Friday evening. My backtests also showed it works..
I was talking about a different thing but thats ok. Still applies.. I have been landing on a different thread I thought I am in.. Happens when you are in a hurry.
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