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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,201
  • Jun 18, 2007 10:42am Jun 18, 2007 10:42am
Quoting BIL2205
Hi Ira , i am looking to go short too but my candle does not close for another hour. too much temptation to jump in but working on my dicipline. and dont want to enter by looking at 1 hour chart bec this is a counter trend trade.Good luck.
P.S did u get a chance to read my earlier post on euro (#5195). any comments ( no pressure )Thanks!!!
Hi, BIL, please hold on and don't open your trade till the close of the candle ! Well done with your dicipline!
Yes, I have read your post, I think it's very good. The only thing I disagree is that daily gives a long signal, if I'm not mistaken the price has gone through 89 now it has retraced to 21 and now should continue it's way down from 21, but I might be mistaking . I have decided for a while not to look at weekly, as it's a very long perspective for me, till I master 4h and daily. I think it's good with this deal to close some short positions at 21 and let the rest run, but unfortunatly my MM doesn't allow me to open 2 lots.
But you are doing good work, working out ways for yourself!
  • #5,202
  • Jun 18, 2007 10:48am Jun 18, 2007 10:48am
AHA (twice) thats what i just said after reading your post and looking again at the daily chart. now i see what u mean about price going through 89 and retracing to 21, thats where it is now. so it could either move away (down ) or through (up). and i agree with u weekly is out of range for me too but just gives me an idea of the over all trend. thanks i again i will re position my self. good luck.!!!
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,203
  • Jun 18, 2007 10:53am Jun 18, 2007 10:53am
Hi, Ira! I think that TP target about 50% fib which is about 1.3375 would be more reasonable here, b/c it's a counter trade. But it might go to 21MA, which is very possible and maybe you are right. What do you think?
  • #5,204
  • Edited 11:11am Jun 18, 2007 11:09am | Edited 11:11am
Quoting alexfot
Hi, Ira! I think that TP target about 50% fib which is about 1.3375 would be more reasonable here, b/c it's a counter trade. But it might go to 21MA, which is very possible and maybe you are right. What do you think?
I know this question is directed for IRA and i in no means am trying to answer for IRA. just wanted to add my 2 cents to this euro . i just got in 1.3400 short. i agree with you for TP at 1.3375 at 50% fib, i put it in for my order before reading your post. bec the market in slow in the afternoon and the price does not move that fast .especially since there is no news coming out. but the MA will keep moving. ( i have seen this happen in past and had to move up my tp to 21 MA as it moved up ,price came down slowly)). so the 21MA might meet the 50% fib by the time price reaches it. The floor is yours IRA!!!
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,205
  • Jun 18, 2007 11:16am Jun 18, 2007 11:16am
Thank you BIL for your answer, I agree with your explanation it sounds very logical to me,the market is slow today.
  • #5,206
  • Jun 18, 2007 11:24am Jun 18, 2007 11:24am
I did not take the short signal of EUR/USD at 4 hr chart.

Daily chart is one thing. And....

As long as EUR/JPY is rising, there is plenty buy pressure of EUR/USD. When EUR/JPY shows any weakness, its the time when USD/JPY, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY go down together.

Good luck with your trade guys.
  • #5,207
  • Jun 18, 2007 11:44am Jun 18, 2007 11:44am
Quoting BIL2205
I know this question is directed for IRA and i in no means am trying to answer for IRA. just wanted to add my 2 cents to this euro . i just got in 1.3400 short. i agree with you for TP at 1.3375 at 50% fib, i put it in for my order before reading your post. bec the market in slow in the afternoon and the price does not move that fast .especially since there is no news coming out. but the MA will keep moving. ( i have seen this happen in past and had to move up my tp to 21 MA as it moved up ,price came down slowly)). so the 21MA might meet the 50% fib by the time price reaches it. The floor is yours IRA!!!
Thanks BIL for answer, it is much better than mine may be . I have thought about this deal as counter trend trade too, but after I read the post by Lerner (5186) I have changed my mind. "The candles are below the 89 ema - makes it a down trend market." Aren't we still in a down trend.
But, please, take my analysis lightly as I had too many losses lately ! What I have learned well is that market may do anything. So I wish to all of us good luck with this trade.
  • #5,208
  • Jun 18, 2007 11:48am Jun 18, 2007 11:48am
Quoting kappa
I did not take the short signal of EUR/USD at 4 hr chart.

Daily chart is one thing. And....

As long as EUR/JPY is rising, there is plenty buy pressure of EUR/USD. When EUR/JPY shows any weakness, its the time when USD/JPY, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY go down together.

Good luck with your trade guys.
Wow, Kappa! Maybe that's what I miss - such a deep understanding of market processes. That's my main consern lately, what I miss.
  • #5,209
  • Jun 18, 2007 12:28pm Jun 18, 2007 12:28pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Handymann,

Wanted to commend you on the testing you have been doing! Great Job!

Someone (I don't remember who, sorry) brought up a point of overoptimizing and the problem w/MACD signal changing in live market.

This made me think that some of the newer members may not be waiting for the close of the candle to place their trades. It is very important to trade in the direction of the 4 hour MACD signal and wait for the candle to close before entering based on the signal.

Also, if you wait for a closed candle, when you are doing your backtesting, the trades are determined exactly the same as when trading live (except w/out the real money emotion coming into play). You will see how your method of determing entry has worked out and how you may expect it to work in the future. This isn't, IMO, overoptimizing, instead it is practicing and learning to see the market action. Of course, I'm a big believer in practicing and reviewing our trades! Think it is GREAT that you are taking the time to focus your efforts on developing your edge!!!

Happy trading,
Pips
Thank you for the feedback Pips! I wish there were more people like you in the world, not many people will help a total stranger. I consider myself a patient and great self learner, who knows maybe ill find some eyeopeners to share with the rest of you. I'll have to name my observations the flying doll or something

Luke
  • #5,210
  • Jun 18, 2007 1:16pm Jun 18, 2007 1:16pm
Quoting kappa
I did not take the short signal of EUR/USD at 4 hr chart.

Daily chart is one thing. And....

As long as EUR/JPY is rising, there is plenty buy pressure of EUR/USD. When EUR/JPY shows any weakness, its the time when USD/JPY, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY go down together.

Good luck with your trade guys.
Not trying to make waves here, but I respectfully disagree, at least partly, with your assertion that when E/J is rising there is buying pressure on the E/U. That would seem to make sense on the surface, but recent historical price action says otherwise.

On April 26, 2007, the E/U reached a high of 1.3681, and reached a low of 1.3262 on June 12, down 419 pips. At the same time, E/J opened on April 26 @ 161.82 and closed on June 12 @ 161.81, virtually the same, but it reached a high on the 5th of June @ 164.59. Granted that over a longer period, say on a weekly basis, there is a correlation, but for the time frame we're trading here, I wouldn't consider it to be a valid reason to keep me out of a 4H trade, or for that matter get me into one.

The carry trade phenomenon has skewed much with regard to technical analysis in the past 18 months or so. I mean why else would the U/J reach multi year highs at the same time the E/U is?

Just an opinion from someone who hasn't even taken a live 4H trade yet so take it for what it's worth. You know what they say about opinions!

Thanks to all for supporting this thread and making it a lively and productive (profitable) discussion area.


Richard
  • #5,211
  • Jun 18, 2007 3:54pm Jun 18, 2007 3:54pm
I just checked EU and EJ and did not find strong correlation between these two, maybe it's there and I can't find it. Can somebody explain it?
  • #5,212
  • Jun 18, 2007 4:34pm Jun 18, 2007 4:34pm
Quoting alexfot
I just checked EU and EJ and did not find strong correlation between these two, maybe it's there and I can't find it. Can somebody explain it?
E/J is a synthetic cross as is G/J....which means E/U X U/J = E/J and
G/U X U/J = G/J

The other crosses influence too...but, to make it simple....when trader's buy both pairs, expect the cross to fly high....or fall hard if both are sold....the crosses have been supporting the Euro and Cable (especially today when no news was out and carry trades are back in favor)....Doesn't mean they will always move in tandem...

I agree w/both traders opinions...one that the carry is causing support, and one that it is not a reason to follow your technical entry signals on the 4 hour strategy...the signals reflect the underlying trends and provide good opportunites to trade Cable and E/U....Good Job to all...
  • #5,213
  • Jun 18, 2007 7:48pm Jun 18, 2007 7:48pm
Quoting BeachBum
Hello Phillip.....

So many people have come to FF, started a thread, touted "their system" and then ran for cover when the going got tough or they had cultivated a following that was now willing to pay for additional mentoring. It is sooooo refreshing to see someone like yourself putting in the time regularly on the thread you started six months ago to help fellow traders be successful, fielding the questions and adding nuggets of trading wisdom along the way. I read here regularly and this post in particular caught my attention because I am mainly a Daily chart trader. But my primary reason for posting was to commend you for your efforts in behalf of others.......truly a job well done! I admire your committment to helping others.
I second that emotion!!!
  • #5,214
  • Jun 18, 2007 8:16pm Jun 18, 2007 8:16pm
The EURO$ closed above the 89 on the last candle. Got this from FXDD

"DJ MARKET TALK: EUR/USD Stops Rumored At 1.3440 - Trader

Mon Jun 18 20:55:10 2007
EDT



0055 GMT [Dow Jones] There's talk of good amount of EUR/USD stop-loss buy
orders at 1.3440; if triggered, "euro/dollar could stage a sharp rally", says
Japan trust bank trader. Tips pair in 1.3410-1.3470 range; last 1.3428 on
EBS.(TAN)

Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
[email protected]


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

19-06-07 0055GMT

Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

061907 00:55 -- GMT"

FWIW...
  • #5,215
  • Jun 18, 2007 8:30pm Jun 18, 2007 8:30pm
Quoting lerner
OK... I will attempt to answer my own question, in the event, a newbie like myself was wondering the same....

I was told that my pivot indicator do not work well on Mondays due to the weekend data etc..

I would be glad to know if someone has a Pivot/Support/Resistance indicator that works Monday thru Friday and can share it with me.

Thanks for your help.
i use ibfx mt4 and my pivot indicator work fine at monday. try it.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 DailyPivots.mq4   9 KB | 762 downloads
  • #5,216
  • Jun 18, 2007 8:50pm Jun 18, 2007 8:50pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi sgfxtrader and yellowbrick,

Welcome to the forum! Also, sgfxtrader, nice job on your few weeks of backtesting! Great Job!! Keep trading the way you tested!

I have a question for you guys, because you shorted E/U earlier....Did your 4 hour give a lower high on the MACD indicating short confirmation? My chart package has MACD rising all night and thus did not confirm short trade.

I know that charting software has different candle close times, and signals may differ. It seems to me that people are using the 1 hour as the trade signal and that this could have happened for shorting E/U....?? Could you please clarify for me where your confirmation came from? Really appreciate it!

Pips
Hi Pips!

I come to understand better now.
A. MACD signal should come first, rather than looking at Price below 89 SMA, 200 SMA and 365 EMA.

The decision to short yesterday at 1.3387 is definitely a wrong move! Well, I got stop out at 1.3405.

I have changed position to LONG @ 1.3425 at point of writing.

http://www.pixilive.com/uploads/2007...dtrade1243.gif
  • #5,217
  • Jun 18, 2007 9:53pm Jun 18, 2007 9:53pm
Quoting lerner
OK... I will attempt to answer my own question, in the event, a newbie like myself was wondering the same....

I was told that my pivot indicator do not work well on Mondays due to the weekend data etc..

I would be glad to know if someone has a Pivot/Support/Resistance indicator that works Monday thru Friday and can share it with me.

Thanks for your help.

Here is the tool that I developed to define my Pivot Points for each day/week. It takes a little excel knowledge, but equations are defined in the cells.
The issue with Weekends is that you have to define the Friday values as starting Thursday night at Midnight 00:00 and the end of day as Sunday night 00:00 to cover the closed market time. For weekly pivots, I go from Friday Close to Friday Close. I am in EST. Let me know if you have any questions. I hope it helps.

Rick
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Pivot Calculator.zip   5 KB | 711 downloads
  • #5,218
  • Jun 18, 2007 11:20pm Jun 18, 2007 11:20pm
I was stopped out in my short E/U deal. I think I will shut up untill I learn well how to trade this strategy.
  • #5,219
  • Jun 19, 2007 4:06am Jun 19, 2007 4:06am
hi all

took the same short signal on E/U yesterday llike ira. maybe philip can explain where we made the mistake .

will be thankful for the explanation.
  • #5,220
  • Jun 19, 2007 4:10am Jun 19, 2007 4:10am
Quoting ira
I was stopped out in my short E/U deal. I think I will shut up untill I learn well how to trade this strategy.
Hang in there Ira. Looks like you were just ahead of your timing on this one. It took a spill after the news release at 5:00 est, but the principles of Phillips 4h were there this morning beforehand...RT, Hammer guess it will probably kiss off the 21 while it's at it.

Einstein said, "Insanity is described as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results": I guess that makes most of us clinically insane.
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