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  • #185,401
  • Dec 13, 2023 7:21am Dec 13, 2023 7:21am
Us ppi is near, I think most of the move will happen later at the FOMC meeting so the ppi may lose its interest but need to also be nimble
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #185,402
  • Dec 13, 2023 7:45am Dec 13, 2023 7:45am
Good afternoon, I hope you are doing well. I just checked the EUR/USD chart now, and I think the bulls might do alright, because of the news, 5M chart;
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  • #185,403
  • Dec 13, 2023 7:50am Dec 13, 2023 7:50am
And here came the reaction.

Small decision shows upward pressure still remains .
Range test historical low and now high has been established by bars testing the range fast creating symmetric triangles.
4 Hour fractal range was hit and broken.
Lower tf pushing price up new liquidity came in during news but still not over.
Remaining slightly above 200 ma trendline break and stohastic realigned as planned.
Major trendlines won the direction for now . Rollercoaster continues.
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  • #185,404
  • Dec 13, 2023 7:56am Dec 13, 2023 7:56am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Quick H1 Outlook With current levels in mind, I have 2 scenarios: 1-Bulls must stay above 1.0779 at least to later jump to 1.0837 area. (if data can create momentum, we could even go to 1.0888) 2-Bears must keep price below 1.0779 so they can attack 1.0741 area later. Let's see... {image}
looks like up taking into account that huge wave cycle, and where it touched looks like a perfect pithfork scenario when you see this small spikes downward that just touched outside the pitchfork bouncing back in. But yes you are righ it allways can go either way.
In this case i look at last confirmation the low bar hit a strong pz line.
  • #185,405
  • Dec 13, 2023 8:07am Dec 13, 2023 8:07am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Quick H1 Outlook With current levels in mind, I have 2 scenarios: 1-Bulls must stay above 1.0779 at least to later jump to 1.0837 area. (if data can create momentum, we could even go to 1.0888) 2-Bears must keep price below 1.0779 so they can attack 1.0741 area later. Let's see... {image}
Maybe effendi maybe effendi.
Iam horrible at drawing this things.
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  • #185,406
  • Edited 8:32am Dec 13, 2023 8:11am | Edited 8:32am
Well done to the bulls today, and may they continue their journey too lol;
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  • #185,407
  • Dec 13, 2023 8:17am Dec 13, 2023 8:17am
Quoting fx6996
{quote} While that may be true if (IF) EUR decreases faster than DXY then E/U STILL decreases. Think of it this way - E/U is comprised of Euro & Dollar on this we all agree. Who do you think will cut rates first, the EU or the FED? PERSONALLY, I believe that the EU will cut before the FED so I'm SHORT EU - that's me and it's a long-term position (Until January 2024). That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
While I agree with you, one thing to consider is that the FED is known to favor a monetary policy much more in support of the economy/fiscal markets given the US dependance on stock markets (401k pensions etc.).
For example, during 2020 (and subsequent years) the FED quickly deployed $3Tn into the market, almost doubling the FED Balance Sheet while the ECB was still deep asleep.

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Federal Reserve Board - Recent balance sheet trends

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Annual consolidated balance sheet of the Eurosystem (europa.eu)


When it comes to the ECB this is a complete wildcard

(sorry for the long post - how can I reduce the screenshots in size?)
Don't follow my trades. Challenge my Analysis!
  • #185,408
  • Dec 13, 2023 8:36am Dec 13, 2023 8:36am
There is a triangle in my mind already.
I Projected it on the chart.
Imagine saying stuff like this a couple of hundred years ago.
You would be burned for sourcery lol. Projecting the future. Ohh well.
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  • #185,409
  • Dec 13, 2023 8:43am Dec 13, 2023 8:43am
Moved fast but still above avrage.
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  • #185,410
  • Dec 13, 2023 8:48am Dec 13, 2023 8:48am
Price is inside a small squeeze it cannot stay here moving on.
Same time look at previous swing you had a lower low with range wery similair looking back pz test is done and trend is already confirmed up. Looking at the range of the bars tells the story. This bar types are also a ranging confluence look at the level they appear compared to previous swing meaning they are still above avrage and as long as the low remains the low up is up until it becomes down lol in trading that would be any second from anything. Price should be king as news is minor and there is USD support.
  • #185,411
  • Dec 13, 2023 9:11am Dec 13, 2023 9:11am
If we go to the graph of dxy, today's movement took one fvg that was below asia, and if it continues like this it will take the other fvg above asia, could we say that it is a seek and destroy?
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swing All Time Return: 153.9%
  • #185,412
  • Dec 13, 2023 9:19am Dec 13, 2023 9:19am
Quoting Brainafk
{quote} While I agree with you, one thing to consider is that the FED is known to favor a monetary policy much more in support of the economy/fiscal markets given the US dependance on stock markets (401k pensions etc.). For example, during 2020 (and subsequent years) the FED quickly deployed $3Tn into the market, almost doubling the FED Balance Sheet while the ECB was still deep asleep.
Yeah thanks to the FED we had 9.0+ inflation as the FED flooded the market with way too may dollars. What you are referring to is QE - Quantitative Easing.

Now as the FED is trimming their balance sheet it's called QT - Quantitative Tightening.
  • #185,413
  • Dec 13, 2023 9:27am Dec 13, 2023 9:27am
Quoting fx6996
{quote} Yeah thanks to the FED we had 9.0+ inflation as the FED flooded the market with way too may dollars. What you are referring to is QE - Quantitative Easing. Now as the FED is trimming their balance sheet it's called QT - Quantitative Tightening.
I suppose the supply chain, war, and covid. Had nothing to do with it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #185,414
  • Dec 13, 2023 9:39am Dec 13, 2023 9:39am
Quoting fx6996
{quote} Yeah thanks to the FED we had 9.0+ inflation as the FED flooded the market with way too may dollars. What you are referring to is QE - Quantitative Easing. Now as the FED is trimming their balance sheet it's called QT - Quantitative Tightening.
Thats correct. Both FED & ECB are performing QT right now.
Just be mindful that while the ECB is in a more desperate situation where it NEEDS to lower rates, the FED is in a stronger position where it CAN lower rates, given its ahead of the curve (relatively to the ECB).

As always...time will tell
Don't follow my trades. Challenge my Analysis!
  • #185,415
  • Dec 13, 2023 9:43am Dec 13, 2023 9:43am
Quoting fx6996
{quote} Yeah thanks to the FED we had 9.0+ inflation as the FED flooded the market with way too may dollars. What you are referring to is QE - Quantitative Easing. Now as the FED is trimming their balance sheet it's called QT - Quantitative Tightening.
Economy should have been split up long time ago we now entered the carbon age but due to the fed been missusing its power bricks turned to gold and west set of to a endless pit of debt like if they didnt know it was comming when they started printing the fake money in the first case.
Now here is the ironical part is gold valued as a payment option or becouse of its value in tech.
Becouse up to the introduction of graphene the value of gold since industrialisation was its ubber abilities in handle heat and currents and thoose abilities have been passed long time ago by graphene that in practic could be created in endless supply.

It was a bad idea from the start to allow money printing control real asset economy it should have stayed for service based sector.
So solution is still to move ahead to split economy becouse both west and east are fallowing unrealistic paths.
One with its hedgemony ideology the other with its goldrush ideology that passed long time ago.
None of them are realistic.
And you could ask if there is more than demand and supply that keeps price rising like maybe big intressts that wont let go of old models becouse of fear.

National economist called the hedgemony banking slavery in many sence true but also fact is that this nations have population with high wellfare standards, standard slaves?

Now the price long term is not worth it becouse it crash society i mean our id cards arent even tied to a national identity anymore.
And the politicians do not have the brains to reform the economy the only thing they know is to trample in old patterns the gold standard used to repair economies in the past just proves it.

This is what happens when you give your broken car to a icecream salesman to repair it.
Or doctors not understanding physics trying to describe medication.
  • #185,416
  • Dec 13, 2023 10:06am Dec 13, 2023 10:06am
Quoting Pipchaser45
{quote} is is what happens when you give your broken car to a icecream salesman to repair it. Or doctors not understanding physics trying to describe medication.
I am interested in this. How does a doctor need physics to describe medication? I'm a medical professional so I am humbly waiting for your answer.
  • #185,417
  • Dec 13, 2023 10:06am Dec 13, 2023 10:06am
This is what I expect today-tomorrow
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  • #185,418
  • Dec 13, 2023 10:17am Dec 13, 2023 10:17am
Hi guys. Can anyone help me please? I have been trading for years and i keep doing the same mistake again and again and again. I never trade with Stop Loss. Im too scared to take a loss and then i end up with blowing one account after another. Would you recommend any Youtube channel, book, or something that would help me to move on. I feel like im stuck in this vicious circle.
  • #185,419
  • Dec 13, 2023 10:43am Dec 13, 2023 10:43am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} I am interested in this. How does a doctor need physics to describe medication? I'm a medical professional so I am humbly waiting for your answer.
It deppends on how deep you want to scope the functions of the elements of reaction as everything is bound to the process of cause and effect.
So not knowing physics you can describe the effects of a medication.
But you cannot be totally sure about the whole range of effects and the the whole process leding to the effects becouse a doctor is not educated to scope down to this functions at best learn some fundamental chemistry.

This also leeds to the development of Rockafellers oil patent medication industry created 1946 and onward as a doctor will be easy to convince to prescribe a medication as the doctor is not educated to scope the whole range of effects thus medication can also be marketed to make money from sideeffects wich is also wery much the case to qote Dr Peter Gøtzsche.
And as long as somebody else is telling you the effects without you yourself being able to calculate the effects you can never be sure what you are prescribing patients 100%
  • #185,420
  • Dec 13, 2023 10:51am Dec 13, 2023 10:51am
Quoting MoHoSK
Hi guys. Can anyone help me please? I have been trading for years and i keep doing the same mistake again and again and again. I never trade with Stop Loss. Im too scared to take a loss and then i end up with blowing one account after another. Would you recommend any Youtube channel, book, or something that would help me to move on. I feel like im stuck in this vicious circle.
Your case looks interesting and sure you need help and did well you've asked here, I made the question for you and here is the answer I got:

Start small. Make a few small trades with a stop loss, and see how it goes. This will help you build confidence and get more comfortable with the idea of taking a loss.

Review your trades. Go over your trades after the fact and analyze what went well and what could have gone better. This will help you identify areas where you could improve.

Don’t make it personal. Remember, taking a loss is not a reflection of your worth as a trader or a person - it’s just part of the game. It doesn’t define you.

Of-course you can get many advices, so it's on you to decide what's best fits you and your personality, so patience is the best approach here!

Also here is a book to read that will help you:
"Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas - a classic book on trading psychology and risk management.

I wish you good luck with your journey!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
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