Make Trading simple!

Attachment g

Can anyone see this Chart?

try sending me a message with the chart attached. maybe I can open it that way and post it.

1500 tick chart from this morning
610 tick charts from this morning

Dear Pastor,
Thank you very much for sharing this trading approach, would you mind elaborating more
regarding when you are changing the settings on BB,CCI, RSI Stoch
Thanks!

Here are the two charts for November 16, 2023 I was not able to post previously. ("Browser problems" concluded FF.)

Trading like a drunken sailor in a slow market 12-4-2023 11:45 to 12:30:

REPLAY / PLAYBACK - I am testing a new method shown in the two charts below. Any comments?
RESULTS: From 9:30 am to 10:23 am today, December 6, 2023, 20 trades, two contracts each
$1,150.00 gross profit - 23 points, which is 92 ticks - less commissions of $176.00 (20 trades times 2 contracts times $4.40 per contact)
equals $974.00 net profit after commissions

charts look good. What are you basing the entries on? but that is pretty good results. How do you feel about it. today looked like a hard day. Especially early on. Not sure Price Action has been so lame this week. Seems like a slower December than I remember for a while. Usually between Christmas and New Years is pretty slow.
I did a play back of this morning and did not do that well. but I think I was to distracted and the there was not a lot of room for error today.

I am not sure I could duplicate those trades in real time. As good as the Play back feature is I still have seen the P/A so I have as idea about the how the day went. Would be nice to understand the decision process on the entries. But it seems really simular to how I trade. Let's see what today brings.

So this is a daily chart of the ES. Pretty interesting that since the 15th of Nov P/A has been pretty tight. Has some good volume days but just hanging out near the top of the range for the year. Hate it when it goes into this mode.

This is new for me what I show in Replay above.
For years I used indicators that I distilled to MACD only - the MACD crossing Zero.

Then I realized that the price goes from Bollinger Band to Bollinger Band. Better yet, from Donchian bound to Donchian bound.
When you superimpose Donchian over the Bollinger you realize that it is the same. But the advantage of Donchian is in those horizontal sections.

So the decision process is pretty simple - from Donchian to Donchian. But it is not THAT simple, I realize that, but the explanation would go beyond
the scope of this simple message. Save to say - it depends on the trend and the trend or no trend is signified by the Parabolic SAR.

(I also try a few things outside the New York trading hours for the instrument ES that is traded 24 hours a day.
But the professionals call it "the market for amateurs" for a good reason - low, practically nonexistent , volume.)

I like Macd also and I only trade the crosses above and below the zero line. I do that for all my indicators RSI, Stoch-RSI, CCI, Sto's or williams. What ever I am using. The zero or 50 line is all that matters to me. The biggest thing lately is we have had more than normal sideways action through out the day. There is always some of that on any day. But lately it seems half the day is just bound in a tight range.

In the early days of my trading back in the 90's I was better at being in the moment. But I did not know any better so I was good at sideways or up or down markets. But it depends on the range. Back then I trades Yahoo a lot. It had a 2 dollar spread between the bid and ask and I could always make money on the thing. It was my favorite back then. It would go from 50 dollars a share to 300 a share the back down every earnings cycle. I just rode the wares as best as possible.

The ES is a lot tighter so the sideways markets I have to be more careful as the margin for error is tighter. So we will see.

But back then the was no Youtube or anything like that. I remember when I first realized the zero line is what I really wanted to pay attention to. That made some of the biggest difference in profitability as anything i have learned. Went to new level right away.

This is the answer to the questions whether this can be done in real time. It is not necessarily a new method.
Rather, it is a further development of all previously gained experience with MACD, Bollinger Bands and Parabolic SAR (black dots).

Below is my chart for trading in SIMULATION with this method from 9:30 am New York time to 10:12 am today:
$750 gross, which is 15 points or 60 ES ticks.
15 trades, 2 contracts each so the commission would have been $132.00 (15 times 2 times $4.40)
13 wins, two loses - 4.0 points, the winning ratio of 86.7% for the number of trades and 80% in points

Please notice:
1. I do not trade until 9:32 am to avoid the initial gyrations of the market
2. I traded only for 40 minutes until 10:12 am
3. Due to low intestinal fortitude I did several things forgoing additional profit:
a. Took the profit too early without waiting for the price to come all the way to the opposite Donchian bound
b. Did not take some obvious trades such as at 10:09 am, the one at MACD crossover at 10:15 am and the one at Donkian at 10:17:30 am.


IO

I explained this to my wife and she made in SIM $325 within the same time frame right off the bet.
(She has a lot of experience.)

I can see you are doing fine on your system. I was just saying I am not sure I can duplicate it. Not sure how I would pick my trades is all. Looks good though. I have been to distracted this morning. 1st day I am home in the morning is a while and I have not been able to sit down in front of the computer for more than a couple of minutes.

Eurorally: Any chance you can create a video explaining your entry/exit rules? OR a more detailed breakdown? I am equally as lost kthrapp350. I am very interested in trading your mechanism.

kthrapp350: If we were to create a MTF indicator for the 1500 tick chart that shows green/red for the signals, so we can focus only on the 610 chart would that work?

Some one I am sure could code that. Ninja is supposed to very easy to code in. But I am not good at that. One thing I do is put a Macd on the 610 chart with the settings of 4/26/7. When it is above the zero line then I only trade long. When below I only trade short. This keeps the 610 tick chart in sync with the 1500 tick chart. Here is an example of that. I like to post the whole chart so that everyone can see the context and settings for all the indicators. So you can see setting for anything in any section of the chart. Then adapt it to your style.

you know it is just flat when the 610 tick chart is showing .50 half point increments. Playing with Erorally's idea and I am about 50/50 on the wins and losses. but it is slow today. Might just take the rest of the year off. P/A just sucks since the 15th of Nov.

Dear r56p:

No, I do not think so. I just cannot spend the time. It is like this: "Those who can do, do. Those who cannot, teach."
Just like the guy who will remain nameless but you may recognize him, who charges you $10,000 for a three day course at the end of which he says to you: "We cannot guarantee you will be successful trading, because this depends on you." (I paid him only $495.00 for his useless manual. If I tell you that his method is to put a standing order one tick within SMA 52 "Midband" and hope for the best, you may (a) recognize who he is and (b) understand how "successful" his "trading method" can be.) I, being persistent, lost three full years persevering with his "method" while my wife and a partner told me much sooner that the method does not work.

That is a lot of nonsense: Namely, if I have a profitable system / method(s), anybody to whom I explain how to use it will be successful if he does what I do, period. But if you have to say the above, then your system of trading is just not profitable enough mainly because it is based on guessing and not on statistically verified concepts: (1) it depends to too much of an extent on "should I do it or not?" and (2) "I should have done it but did not." That is to say, a bona fide profitable trading system must be based on concepts that are profitable with a high degree of probability. Notice that I use methods that are profitable with probability 80% to 100%.

I am not going to teach my system simply because I can make more money trading than teaching.

There is a "technical specialist" of a broker on FF who claims to make money with a concept that is 51% profitable! Good luck with that as it shows a poor understanding of probability and statistics. I think he would have to make on the average 4.4 points ($220) on each trade just to make even and pay for the commissions!

Then there is a Ninja Trader "specialist" on You Tube who claims the "market cannot be predicted because it is random." And then he continues with pontificating on "how to trade" while making a disclaimer that "Ninja Trader cannot give advise on trading." It also took me years to realize that it is not that Ninja Trader cannot give advice on trading but the truth is that Ninja Trader does not know anything about trading, period. Furthermore, their approach to solving the problems of setting up their platform is completely devoid of any knowledge of mathematics, mathematical statistics, operations research and the like, all a sine qua non of being able to setup up a well functioning trading platform.

This boils down to what we call in the science of operations research a "descriptive model" as opposed to a "explanatory model." With the former, your cannot explain and trade anything. But with the latter you can profitably trade (please see more below on random vs. stochastic markets).

Their approach is totally based on having a bunch of computer programmers who code the platform and are interested only in "whether it works." "Whether it works" means to them whether the code responds to input "as intended." So it happens that while the code responds "as intended," the concept that is coded that way may be "fatally flawed." You do not believe me? If you use Ninja Trader then take a look at their automatic "Sample MA crossover (trading strategy)". You will find that this NT automatic strategy that they will always suggest you use for testing results only in trading losses. Over the years, we made a number of suggestions, many of them have been implemented or are in the process of being implemented, to Ninja Trader for (1) corrections of concepts embedded in their code and (2) outright mistakes in coding.

Now, let us talk about why this Ninja Trade "expert" on You Tube is dead wrong when he says that "market cannot be forecasted because it is random:"

(1) He is wrong because had this been true, there would have been only a 50% probability of winning and a 50% probability of losing and, therefore, we all would be just gamblers. I do not think he means that. I say this in spite of the fact that more than 90% of traders, and perhaps much more than 90%, lose money and do not make money. On the other hand, J.P. Morgan Chase Trading bragged 18 months ago that in the preceding quarter they did not have a single losing day. They employ hundreds of mathematicians and computer scientists educated at Ivy League schools, use $10 million computers and while the electrical signal travels at the speed of light, they place their computers next to the exchange to save the most minute amount of time in communications.

(This brings the question of the "zero sum game in trading" that was brough up on this thread previously and that I would like to leave for another day.)

We make do with laptops worth several thousand dollars at most even if they have the fastest Intel Core i9 chip, a $950 (lifetime license) Ninja Trader software and communications via Internet with the built-in latency of 35 to 100 ms (response time of 0.1 of a second) at best. So the programing capabilities of Ninja Trader platform are quite limited. That brings the question of automated trading. It is said that 80% of the trades are placed by computers today. But after years of trying, I can say unequivocally that the hopes of automated trading using the Ninja Trader platform are going to be frustrated because of its limited capabilities, slow execution, order of executions and the like. But Ninja Trader platform is an excellent piece of work, the authors should be commended for that, and IT IS WELL SUITED FOR MANUAL TRADING.

Ninja Trader has an hour-long video in the afternoon of every day on You Tube discussing the day's events. With customary disclaimer that "they are not giving advice on trading" they and their gusts delve right into such an "advice." I challenge anybody to tell me whether, after listening to these videos for a week, a trader can say with a straight face that he was able to make more money in the market because of listening to these videos.

(2) The second reason why the Ninja Trader "expert" is dead wrong when he says on You Tube that "markets cannot be forecasted because they are random" is
that THE MARKETS ARE NOT RANDOM ! THEY ARE STOCHASTIC ! The crucial difference here is that in a random trading market that could not be forecasted the chance of wining would be 50% and the change of loosing would be also 50% thereby resulting in zero profit and zero loss in the long run.

But stochastic process means something entirely different: A stochastic process is not random at all ! A stochastic process contains patterns that can be uncovered, studied and implemented in trading to the extend that, as you can see from my trading, the chance of winning and losing is not 50% each but the chance of winning can be 80% to 100% and the chance of losing can be reduced to 20% to zero percent. Disclaimer: From the theory of probability, it should be clear that the chance of winning when trading a stochastic market can never be 100% in the long run.

I will say something about the actual methods of trading we employ later but cannot give a complete course here. As a point of interest, it took me more than eight years and hundreds of thousand of dollars (in lost income) to arrive at this stage of the game. On the other hand, the claims earlier in this thread that nobody would divulge the details of a profitable trading system have been highly exaggerated. I am only saying that I can make more money trading than teaching it. On the other hand, there is no concern that other people would learn a profitable method of trading and thinking that this would change the market.

There are on the average 1.6 million of contracts of instrument ES traded every day. Let us assume that suddenly there would be 100 additional traders trading 50 contracts of instrument ES every day. This would mean 5,000 additional contracts traded every day by these additional 100 profitable traders. This would not change the market in the least. This is because 5,000 contracts is only 0.3% of the total 1.6 million contracts of ES traded every day on the average.

So EuroRally, What did you do for work before retirement? I think it is totally awesome that your wife enjoys trading also.