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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #2,361
  • Edited 10:38am Jun 15, 2007 9:14am | Edited 10:38am
TiKin.......

You are using the "Backtest" indicator which gives you a Fozzy signal one day late..............not a good idea!

This strategy does not have a closing "requirement".

I suggest you read more in this thread to learn how different traders use the basic Fozzy method. A very recent post by ByteBodger nicely outlines how potential Fozzy traders should approach this system. And a little reading in this thread shows how most of us have different strategies for using multiple lots; and "when to close" is still an issue for some traders.

Every trader needs their own set of very firm rules as well as backtest experience. Sorry if I sound like a broken record...............again!

One more thing.................I really like your avatar!

Quoting TiKin
To Experienced Fozzyes,

On the following USD/JPY chart, there was a signal to BUY on Monday the 11 June, but the market did not react for 48 hours to finally explode, we can also observe the same thing on the GJ and EJ as they keep on going (beautifull signals). I was wondering once you have cashed in some profit, do you usually stay in the market with a BE stop or does the strategy requires that you close all positions the same day. I am not talking about the EA but on manual execution. On the JPY have you stayed in from Monday on.

Thank you for a great thread and contribution

More than one point of view would be appreciated
  • #2,362
  • Jun 15, 2007 10:34am Jun 15, 2007 10:34am
A FF member sent me a PM asking if the "8 and 8" template that was provided by "thebhoy" in his e-book thread has the same settings as the original Fozzy.

Frankly I don't know because I have not compared them. My suggestion to the PMer is to do a little homework and compare the settings, perhaps by putting both on a chart(s) to see if they are the same or give different signals.

I consider it a personal complement when traders send me a PM asking a question about Fozzy trading. And although some here may consider me to the resident Fozzy "expert", I don't have all the answers (I wish I did......lol!). In a situation like this, research is required to find the answer, so I'm sending the questioner on that mission. All the best!
  • #2,363
  • Jun 15, 2007 2:22pm Jun 15, 2007 2:22pm
[quote=BeachBum;1467744]TiKin.......

You are using the "Backtest" indicator which gives you a Fozzy signal one day late..............not a good idea!

OK According to the original method it is mentionned to open a position on the NEXT bar after a MA/RSI cross (first page), however, I have not red all the posts and the strategy might have changed, I will check what you mentionned.

This strategy does not have a closing "requirement".

I suggest you read more in this thread to learn how different traders use the basic Fozzy method. A very recent post by ByteBodger nicely outlines how potential Fozzy traders should approach this system. And a little reading in this thread shows how most of us have different strategies for using multiple lots; and "when to close" is still an issue for some traders.

Every trader needs their own set of very firm rules as well as backtest experience. Sorry if I sound like a broken record...............again!

One more thing.................I really like your avatar!

Yes my avatar is a long story that I have posted on another thread, it is meant to be funny, but I don't espacially like pushy gal as I enjoy the beach on weekend like you do LOL.

Thanks you very much for the answer and this system look great, it looks like it is often very good[/quote]

a
  • #2,364
  • Jun 15, 2007 2:30pm Jun 15, 2007 2:30pm
Dude the thread is 158 freakin pages long!! If you call that "a little reading" then geeez you need to get out more.Simplify this thread!!
  • #2,365
  • Jun 15, 2007 2:34pm Jun 15, 2007 2:34pm
Quoting mike43234
Dude the thread is 158 freakin pages long!! If you call that "a little reading" then geeez you need to get out more.Simplify this thread!!
Well if reading 158 pages to understand a profitable system is too much for you then I guess you are not really that interested in succeeding anyway.
  • #2,366
  • Jun 15, 2007 2:42pm Jun 15, 2007 2:42pm
Quoting mike43234
Dude the thread is 158 freakin pages long!! If you call that "a little reading" then geeez you need to get out more.Simplify this thread!!

Go ahead Dude, knock yourself out and simplify it for all the other newbies!!!!!!
  • #2,367
  • Jun 15, 2007 2:43pm Jun 15, 2007 2:43pm
Quoting willf
Well if reading 158 pages to understand a profitable system is too much for you then I guess you are not really that interested in succeeding anyway.
Do ya think???
  • #2,368
  • Jun 15, 2007 4:08pm Jun 15, 2007 4:08pm
Quoting Madog
Thanks for your comments, I apreciate BB how difficult it would be to backtest this idea because of the DTL's. I suppose manual forward testing is the obvious answer unless someone has any suggestions.

Thanks Ryecatcher for your remarks, I have already seen your post and am using the Heiken Ashi indicator as a last check before trading on my Demo Account.

I will try to forward test this and post the results on a weekly basis if this might help.

Because of work I tend to place pending orders above/below the trendline if there has been a Fozzy Cross. At least with this idea you don't miss out on the start of the breakout

Here's another breakout

Regards

Madog
Hi Again

As promised please find attached a report of this week's trades which I made trying to follow my setup rules as explained in my previous post "Fozzy / Demark Method" post no. 2324

In all it has been a good week, but I am very annoyed with the two trades which were stopped out with a loss of the full 40 ticks on both lots. I've been pulling my hair out trying to find something simple which would have kept me out of these trades. Then again I suppose you have to take these losses as part of the game in order to succeed.

I would very much appreciate any comments and will try and keep posting results on a weekly basis.

Regards

Madog
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Statement 15.6.07.doc   60 KB | 566 downloads
  • #2,369
  • Jun 15, 2007 5:38pm Jun 15, 2007 5:38pm
Quoting Madog
In all it has been a good week, but I am very annoyed with the two trades which were stopped out with a loss of the full 40 ticks on both lots. I've been pulling my hair out trying to find something simple which would have kept me out of these trades. Then again I suppose you have to take these losses as part of the game in order to succeed.

I would very much appreciate any comments and will try and keep posting results on a weekly basis.
I'm sure that my opinion is probably worth even less than you are paying for it. Having said that, you DID solicit comments, so here goes.

I've reviewed your attachment and those results are awesome! My biggest worry, based on your message, is the idea that you would beat yourself up over two 40-pip stop-outs. This week you closed $18 in hard profits and you're sitting on $510 in unrealized profit. What more do you want?

I firmly believe that if you go crazy trying to find the Perfect Filter you will only end up cannibalizing your own positive results.

I am actually working on a custom indicator that I call The Ultimate Filter. It will filter bad trades out of ANY method. When you fire it up, it turns the screen black and terminates MT4. This will be a foolproof method to keep you out of ALL bad trades.
  • #2,370
  • Edited Jun 16, 2007 6:46am Jun 15, 2007 5:53pm | Edited Jun 16, 2007 6:46am
Quoting Madog
In all it has been a good week, but I am very annoyed with the two trades which were stopped out with a loss of the full 40 ticks on both lots. I've been pulling my hair out trying to find something simple which would have kept me out of these trades. Then again I suppose you have to take these losses as part of the game in order to succeed.
FWIW, I figured I would upload my results for the past week. I'm trading this on a live account (I assume you're on demo, since you have the default account starting value of $5k). Although we have different takes on the fozzy method, we both ended up with very similar results. My account value rose by 12% this week - one of my best trading weeks ever.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Fozzy.zip   5 KB | 1,038 downloads
  • #2,371
  • Jun 15, 2007 11:33pm Jun 15, 2007 11:33pm
Thanks for your comments, and I agree with you, it's very easy to get obsessed with the losses and loose track of the bigger picture.

Nice work yourself

Regards

Madog
  • #2,372
  • Edited 3:23am Jun 16, 2007 2:58am | Edited 3:23am
*Phew* I did it, I actually made it! Ive read all 150+ pages of this thread!

Thanks to EVERYONE who has posted on this thread, Ive learnt a lot, but a special thanks to BeachBum, Willf, thebohy, and, especially, Fozzy.

Also a thankyou to Cisco for reintroducing me to this system (Sax here mate ).

Ive decided to adapt things to suit myself. What Im planning could probably be described as a "modified Willf".

Im planning on opening 3 lots, the first two will follow Willf's rules, with the first TP at Vegas fib no. 1 (remaining lots SL moved to even), second TP at fib 2 (remaining lot SL moved to fib 1).

The last lot will use a 5/10 EMA crossover. Ive been using 5/10 EMA crossovers for a while, they are very good at catching and staying on Uber-trends, but suffer from some chop otherwise (that is partially from my own greed and historic lack of MM). Ive noticed that RSI/MA crossovers frequently preceed EMA crossovers by a day. Worst case is that the third lot closes with a profit of fib 1.

The total of the 3 lots will represent a maximum of 2% risk.

The Fozzy method also appears to be a really excellent method from ramping up a 5/10 EMA trade. A good 5/10 EMA trade can last for a month or more, and on a large trend you could make much more money than just letting it ride by adding in when appropriate. The fozzy method shows when it is "appropriate" to add in.

In order to gain a valid new trade in a strong trend, the RSI must go above the MA, and then come back down below it. In real terms, this usually means a localised area of resistance, or a small retracement, which is a good time to buy. Once that happens and a new fozzy is indicated, Ill open three lots again, following the same rules. If the trend holds, Ill end up with two lots following the 5/10 EMA crossover.

Ill post an image later on to show a bit more clearly what Im talking about (hopefully what Ive said so far isnt complete gibberish), once I figure out how.
  • #2,373
  • Jun 16, 2007 3:33am Jun 16, 2007 3:33am
Quoting BeachBum
A FF member sent me a PM asking if the "8 and 8" template that was provided by "thebhoy" in his e-book thread has the same settings as the original Fozzy.

Frankly I don't know because I have not compared them. My suggestion to the PMer is to do a little homework and compare the settings, perhaps by putting both on a chart(s) to see if they are the same or give different signals.

I consider it a personal complement when traders send me a PM asking a question about Fozzy trading. And although some here may consider me to the resident Fozzy "expert", I don't have all the answers (I wish I did......lol!). In a situation like this, research is required to find the answer, so I'm sending the questioner on that mission. All the best!
Hi,
The template uses the set up most everyone uses. That is: RSI(8) and SMA(8). There are no bollinger bands. The RSI lines are at 80/20 instead of the usual 70/30 as that's my own preference.

A template makes things a bit easier but really, it only takes two mins to set up a chart!
  • #2,374
  • Jun 16, 2007 4:21am Jun 16, 2007 4:21am
Quoting BeachBum
TiKin.......

You are using the "Backtest" indicator which gives you a Fozzy signal one day late..............not a good idea!

This strategy does not have a closing "requirement".

<snip>
Very good points, but actually if you go back to post #1 on this thread you will find the Fozzy originally used a trailing stop. That is not to say one should continue with that approach but I did find it reassuring way-back-when to find a method which also described an exit strategy - because not all do that.
Minesweeper target: 284
  • #2,375
  • Jun 16, 2007 8:04am Jun 16, 2007 8:04am
Hello Madog...................well done!

Like Bytebodger, my opinion is free! You've done very well with your version of a modified Fozzy method. And like Byte, I don't think you should beat yourself up over two losing trades. NO system is perfect! There are NO filters that will keep you out of the occasional losing trade. If you want to totally avoid losers, don't trade............ I encourage you to stick with your system, and ONLY change it if extensive testing proves the wisdom of doing so. TOO many traders start out with a workable, profitable system and then "tweek" themselves into being a consistent loser. Avoid that trap at all cost! I'll be looking forward to learning more about your continued successes!

Quoting Madog
Hi Again

As promised please find attached a report of this week's trades which I made trying to follow my setup rules as explained in my previous post "Fozzy / Demark Method" post no. 2324

In all it has been a good week, but I am very annoyed with the two trades which were stopped out with a loss of the full 40 ticks on both lots. I've been pulling my hair out trying to find something simple which would have kept me out of these trades. Then again I suppose you have to take these losses as part of the game in order to succeed.

I would very much appreciate any comments and will try and keep posting results on a weekly basis.

Regards

Madog
  • #2,376
  • Jun 16, 2007 8:07am Jun 16, 2007 8:07am
Thanks Michael for the clarification. I'm sure the original questioner appreciates the info too.

Quoting the bhoy
Hi,
The template uses the set up most everyone uses. That is: RSI(8) and SMA(8). There are no bollinger bands. The RSI lines are at 80/20 instead of the usual 70/30 as that's my own preference.

A template makes things a bit easier but really, it only takes two mins to set up a chart!
  • #2,377
  • Jun 16, 2007 8:09am Jun 16, 2007 8:09am
Craig2...........I'd very much like to see a "screenshot" of this; thanks for sharing your thoughts!

Quoting Craig2
*Phew* I did it, I actually made it! Ive read all 150+ pages of this thread!

Thanks to EVERYONE who has posted on this thread, Ive learnt a lot, but a special thanks to BeachBum, Willf, thebohy, and, especially, Fozzy.

Also a thankyou to Cisco for reintroducing me to this system (Sax here mate ).

Ive decided to adapt things to suit myself. What Im planning could probably be described as a "modified Willf".

.
  • #2,378
  • Jun 16, 2007 12:39pm Jun 16, 2007 12:39pm
Quoting Craig2
Also a thankyou to Cisco for reintroducing me to this system (Sax here mate ).

Ive decided to adapt things to suit myself. What Im planning could probably be described as a "modified Willf".
Glad to see you here.

I hope you make a million....Oh, and don't forget my 10% finder's fee

G'day mate
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #2,379
  • Jun 16, 2007 6:38pm Jun 16, 2007 6:38pm
OK, I think I have this thing figured out now.

The first image shows USDCAD for the last couple of months, you can see that once the 5/10 EMA crossed over (red and green lines), it went on to run for 900+ PIPs before a counter cross.

In this case, the fozzy signal and the 5/10 EMA occurred on the same day (due to the big drop the day before). First fozzy trade is entered, TP1 and 2 are hit, the third lot waiting for a 5/10 EMA cross to close runs.

Next trade fails and all three lots are stopped out for a loss of 49 pips each (ATR20*0.7).

After that is the third sell signal, which goes on to hit TP 1 and TP2, third lot remains open.

At c. 1.0680, a EMA cross happens, meaning I close out the two "lot 3's" that are open. These two positions yield about 1200 pips, in addition to the fozzies.

One point of clarification, Im not sure if Im doing this right, and I couldnt see it dealt with in the thread: for Vegas fibs, are TP levels calculated off the fib levels when the trade is made, or are they recalculated daily based off the actual fib positions for that day? Im using the former at the moment, as it seems to make more sense, but if someone can clarify, Id appreciate it.

(edit: just noticed that some of my labels were cut off in the first pic, I think that whats left and what Ive said here explain it though.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uascad1.jpg Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uascad2.jpg Size: 84 KB
  • #2,380
  • Jun 16, 2007 7:07pm Jun 16, 2007 7:07pm
Quoting Craig2

One point of clarification, Im not sure if Im doing this right, and I couldnt see it dealt with in the thread: for Vegas fibs, are TP levels calculated off the fib levels when the trade is made, or are they recalculated daily based off the actual fib positions for that day? Im using the former at the moment, as it seems to make more sense, but if someone can clarify, Id appreciate it.
I don't really use the Vegas fibs anymore. I set my first TP at the full ATR(20) and then let my second lot run with a stop at 70% of ATR(20). I adjust the second lot daily assuming the trade has move in my direction.

However when I was using fibs I used to adjust them daily as the fib levels moved.
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