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MTF Engulf / Engulf fail

  • #941
  • Dec 4, 2023 8:24am Dec 4, 2023 8:24am
Quoting Inthebox
gold looking for engulf buy {image}
gold engulf failed.
lower level engulf buy to time with nyse open.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #942
  • Dec 4, 2023 11:27am Dec 4, 2023 11:27am
Thank you for sharing your method, ITB.
Still studying the thread.
Would you have considered a long entry on the 30M chart on the break of the high of the green candle (marked with an arrow) or should I have waited for candle close and engulf confirmation?
Many thanks!!!
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  • #943
  • Dec 4, 2023 10:13pm Dec 4, 2023 10:13pm
Quoting trader-f1
Would you have considered a long entry on the 30M chart on the break of the high of the green candle (marked with an arrow) or should I have waited for candle close and engulf confirmation? Many thanks!!! {image} {image} {image}
i would have 2 position size for long.
one for candle close above the engulf fail (arrowed green candle) as there are cases where there won't be retracement.
the other for retest of the engulf fail or engulf zone.

another thing is if there's a h4 candle (lesser for h1) close above 01dec low, it's an indication to me that price will go higher.


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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #944
  • Dec 5, 2023 2:26am Dec 5, 2023 2:26am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} i would have 2 position size for long. one for candle close above the engulf fail (arrowed green candle) as there are cases where there won't be retracement. the other for retest of the engulf fail or engulf zone. another thing is if there's a h4 candle (lesser for h1) close above 01dec low, it's an indication to me that price will go higher. {image} {image}
Thanks for the explanation, ITB.

I believe your 30-minute chart reflects the price action from Nov/9th.
I was just wondering if you saw any valid entries on the 30-min chart for Dec/4th.
Thanks again
  • #945
  • Dec 5, 2023 2:55am Dec 5, 2023 2:55am
Quoting trader-f1
{quote} Thanks for the explanation, ITB. I believe your 30-minute chart reflects the price action from Nov/9th. I was just wondering if you saw any valid entries on the 30-min chart for Dec/4th. Thanks again
nov9 was an example shown of how you would take a long on the arrowed candle that you had asked.
as for dec4 per htf d1 uptrend there was no valid m30 retest setup to buy.
however there was a engulf sell setup after the engulf fail happened.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #946
  • Dec 5, 2023 3:01am Dec 5, 2023 3:01am
DAX is inside of daily engulf, but it might also just head for the all-time-high, to grab some liquidity before going down.
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  • #947
  • Dec 5, 2023 3:27am Dec 5, 2023 3:27am
Quoting Ryan0618
DAX is inside of daily engulf, but it might also just head for the all-time-high, to grab some liquidity before going down. {image}
i think there is still room to move up till new york session
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #948
  • Dec 5, 2023 4:25am Dec 5, 2023 4:25am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} nov9 was an example shown of how you would take a long on the arrowed candle that you had asked. as for dec4 per htf d1 uptrend there was no valid m30 retest setup to buy. however there was a engulf sell setup after the engulf fail happened. {image}
It makes sense now. The trick now is spotting these setups in real time. Gotta practice ;-)
Thank you once again!!!
  • #949
  • Dec 5, 2023 4:26am Dec 5, 2023 4:26am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} i think there is still room to move up till new york session {image}
I always find it difficult when there are multiple engulfs, to determine which one is more significant. For example, yesterday this would have been a very nice long entry, although there was an engulf pushing downwards: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post14677625

Additionally, when trading indices, there are times with very low liquidity and I am not sure yet if I should ignore these times or not.
  • #950
  • Dec 5, 2023 4:35am Dec 5, 2023 4:35am
Another example. EJ inside of 1h and 15m EG, but there is another 1h EG right below it.
If I would go short now, I would put the stop loss above yesterday high, but then the price would need to reach todays low for a positive reward/risk ratio. The 1D and 1h EG below the price would act as a roadblock - a reversal is very likely, although the current trend is downwards.
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  • #951
  • Dec 5, 2023 5:49am Dec 5, 2023 5:49am
Quoting Ryan0618
{quote} I always find it difficult when there are multiple engulfs, to determine which one is more significant. For example, yesterday this would have been a very nice long entry, although there was an engulf pushing downwards: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post14677625 Additionally, when trading indices, there are times with very low liquidity and I am not sure yet if I should ignore these times or not.
somehow we have the wrong notion that if we found a good system, there must be set up everyday.
that is not so.
so if we were to let the htf to show us the direction .........
every monday we start with a weekly chart to determine which direction price will go.
we see uj w1 price came down from engulf sell to engulf buy - so immediately showing this pair difficult to trade?
if price were to remain below the key level w1 low resistant and upper level of engulf buy, there should not be a candle close above them.
yesterday there was no d1 candle close above them.
we take a closer look what happened yesterday intraday.
h4 if we were to follow to only sell on premium (above fib50) and buy on discount, there won't be any selling to be done either.
this again show that not everyday is a trading set up day.
today h1 presented the engulf sell set up.
the above is strictly following w1 direction.

on the other hand, if we were to ignore the w1 direction ......
you may be buying yesterday since we have the h4 engulf buy within the w1 engulf buy with entry on h1 engulf buy.

so it boils down what is within us, are we capable enough to take the 2 trades above?
is our mind clear most of the time to be able to see that?
if not, then i think that it is better that we choose to take the htf direction trade, ie. to trade in one direction only so as to be less confused.
w1 vs d1 - take w1 direction. d1 vs h4 - take d1 direction .........etc.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #952
  • Dec 5, 2023 6:38am Dec 5, 2023 6:38am
Quoting Ryan0618
Another example. EJ inside of 1h and 15m EG, but there is another 1h EG right below it. If I would go short now, I would put the stop loss above yesterday high, but then the price would need to reach todays low for a positive reward/risk ratio. The 1D and 1h EG below the price would act as a roadblock - a reversal is very likely, although the current trend is downwards. {image} {image}
ej d1 direction down.
price traveled from h4 engulf sell will end at h4 engulf buy.
mission more or less already completed.
then it bounced up again to h4 making 4 points.
with that ranging could result.
we know that there are roadblocks.
so look for some other pairs.
do not deal with pairs whose mission already completed and likely to range.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #953
  • Dec 5, 2023 8:55am Dec 5, 2023 8:55am
gold engulf buy with w1 support
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #954
  • Dec 5, 2023 9:02pm Dec 5, 2023 9:02pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} i think there is still room to move up till new york session {image}
dax is performing well.
whereas gold has been consolidating.
suspect that something is coming up. or at least the h4 candle body is going higher.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #955
  • Dec 5, 2023 10:22pm Dec 5, 2023 10:22pm
as traders we are always indecisive of which time frame to use for entries.
there is no easy answer.
there is no such thing as one size fits all.
very much would depend on each individual risk tolerant.
we get surprised if we see someone with more than 50 pips SL.
well we do not know his position or equity size or the instrument he is trading required that kind of SL.
one thing for sure is that the smaller the time frames, the more whipsaw we see.
so do your own back testing from m1 to h1 as entry time frames to see which one suits you for that instrument.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #956
  • Dec 6, 2023 12:20am Dec 6, 2023 12:20am
gold buy result
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #957
  • Dec 6, 2023 1:42am Dec 6, 2023 1:42am
gold after breaking trend line normally comes consolidation.
roadblocks to up trend.
if following htf uptrend, just wait for opportunity to buy.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #958
  • Dec 6, 2023 2:54am Dec 6, 2023 2:54am
Quoting Inthebox
gold buy result {image}
May I ask you where your SL was in this trade? I tend to put my SL right under the next support (~2011) / second next support. In this case the price grabbed some liquidity at this zone, probably because there are many stop losses around that area, just to shoot up right afterwards.

Thank you in advance.
  • #959
  • Dec 6, 2023 5:08am Dec 6, 2023 5:08am
Quoting Ryan0618
{quote} May I ask you where your SL was in this trade? I tend to put my SL right under the next support (~2011) / second next support. In this case the price grabbed some liquidity at this zone, probably because there are many stop losses around that area, just to shoot up right afterwards. Thank you in advance.
my SL is below the engulf zone but the way i use it is different.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14625208
this is more than the max 40 pips that i mentioned in post 1.
if one is not willing to take that, then has to wait for one which was presented in m5 engulf within the htf engulf, for around 30 - 40 pips.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #960
  • Dec 6, 2023 5:21am Dec 6, 2023 5:21am
Quoting Inthebox
gold after breaking trend line normally comes consolidation. roadblocks to up trend. if following htf uptrend, just wait for opportunity to buy. {image}
gold.
it's about time to watch for long.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
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