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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,121
  • Edited 5:20am Jun 15, 2007 5:18am | Edited 5:20am
Quoting Cope
Thanks for the feedback on the EU. I set a stop sell for while I slept in case price did bounce off the 21 and go down, which it has a little bit. It hit my entry price of 1.3208 and is back to 3216 as I type. I have a tight stop since (shame on me) I normally don't set orders while I'm not in front of my pc. Macd has not confirmed a bounce yet, but continues to hover at the zero line. Seems as tho this is where price wants to stay until we approach the US reports this AM. Time will tell, and with a tight stop, it was a bit of a force, but may turn out.
I did the same and now very ashamed as there is still no MACD signal to go short . But it may work out as to the rules of MR.

UPLOAD: Val144 I like your analysis.
  • #5,122
  • Jun 15, 2007 6:19am Jun 15, 2007 6:19am
Good morning /afternoon everyone.
I am also watching the euro movement. i am kind of nervous entering today with all the dollar news coming out today . the price is hovering on the zero line on MACD so i think the price may go either way. The pair has been acting strangely. so has the market, i am no expert but every pair i look at is giving mixed signals. I might stay out today bec it looks like a hit or miss. The pair is building up for something big and the temptation is there to jump in but i am not experienced enough to know which way the tide will flow.
EUro/ usd shows a round bottom moving towards the 21MA on the DAILY time frame . but that is a counter trend trade.So the actual trend on Daily is also downward(right). and 4 hour is still not confirming a zero bounce. So lets see if i can come up with a plan or just sit this one out,. Good luck IRA and COPE.

Sorry for my ramblings but just a little frustated .Thankyou All.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,123
  • Edited 6:46am Jun 15, 2007 6:24am | Edited 6:46am
Quoting tamkras
Dollar-yen so far acts as we discussed yesterday - it broke the upper channel and took out 123.00 level. I am just watching it as if a slow-motion movie. You can see that the price now rests on the broken trendline inviting longs - none of the 4HR candles of today closed below it. However, MACD repeats all over again - sell me! If this line happens to be a support for tomorrow do you want to sell? In my humble opinion, I would short it if the price follows this scenario, i.e. test and failure.
MACD forum, hope this observation was useful and sell orders did not blindly follow MACD sell signal. Let me know if it helped to save your cash. O'Zeeke's mini-lot and mine are going to the target so far. Your comments, ideas will be appreciated as this is what the forum is for.
  • #5,124
  • Jun 15, 2007 6:52am Jun 15, 2007 6:52am
Quoting tamkras
MACD forum, hope this observation was useful and sell orders did not blindly follow MACD sell signal. Let me know if it helped to save your cash.
Dear Tamkras,

I read your post again. hmmmmm..... Actually you were suggesting possible long with that post !! After confirming there is no rate hike, nor bullish remark from Fukui, USD/JPY shot up. Next target will be 123.50, then another round number 124..... My gut feeling tells me that other dollar pairs' move will be limited until this upmove stops.
  • #5,125
  • Edited 7:36am Jun 15, 2007 7:26am | Edited 7:36am
Hi Cope

It will be very good lesson for you. Never sell just 4 pips above Daily pivot. Much better is to sell below it (pivot - spred - buffer 5 pips [25 pips at news time] for me)
I am sorry if my post was accepted as a sell signal. It can become sell or buy signal depend the price action at the end of the week.

GL


Quoting Cope
Thanks for the feedback on the EU. I set a stop sell for while I slept in case price did bounce off the 21 and go down, which it has a little bit. It hit my entry price of 1.3208 and is back to 3216 as I type. I have a tight stop since (shame on me) I normally don't set orders while I'm not in front of my pc. Macd has not confirmed a bounce yet, but continues to hover at the zero line. Seems as tho this is where price wants to stay until we approach the US reports this AM. Time will tell, and with a tight stop, it was a bit of a force, but may turn out.
It’s just emotions & money
  • #5,126
  • Jun 15, 2007 7:45am Jun 15, 2007 7:45am
Quoting ammar2000a70
Dear all

I was trying to get the above files as tits very important files and good idea for those which cannt go through all the pages .. but I cannt.. would somebody send them to my e-mail or give me another link which I can download them.. Best wishes

[size=3][color=navy][email="[email protected]"][email protected][/color][/size][/email]

Hi everyone,

I've updated the summary that I've posted a lot of posts ago.
There are always two file:
the first one is a word file zipped that contains important post of the thread
the second one is a zip file that contains all the attachment of the thread (mp3 & pdf)

In the word file there is also a link to all the mp3 posted by Philip.

Here are the links:
File word zipped: http://rapidshare.com/files/37312572/4H_strategy.zip

Attachments: http://rapidshare.com/files/37340484/Attach.zip

the file host site is free but has a time limitation download.
You can dl only x mb per hour, so you have to dl a file, wait a couple of hour then dl the other one.

hope that it helps
  • #5,127
  • Jun 15, 2007 8:27am Jun 15, 2007 8:27am
Hello Tamkras, I have join your club with O'Zeeke yesterday evening in goin long in USD/JPY with a target at 130.00 with sop loss at 120.92 as I also agree there is a lot more potential for it going up. To revise my position, it will need to definitely need to have a serious close under the 21EMA.

This a another great lesson of Phillip as to not follow the MACD signal alone but to continually look at the price motion of the market. My reasonning for going long yesterday evening at 123.02 was a trend continuation signal on 1 hour comfirmed by MACD 4H later. If we add the fundamental thinking that the BOJ is not ready yet to increase rate and that the recent data of US are good, all the technical and fundamental converge for more uptend potential.

Also, your observation on the long term trendline broken and serving as a support is another point for the long side.

Of course, in Forex, anything can turn around so let see what happens.

BTW, I am also onl y playing with a fraction of a mini-lot on this so nothing to be scary of regarding my RRR.

Wishing that all can get a lot fof good pips

Shreem
  • #5,128
  • Jun 15, 2007 8:39am Jun 15, 2007 8:39am
Have been stopped on my E/U deal, please hit me someone if I open the trade again whithout the MACD signal . Is there a thread of losers or I will start the one . Have a good weekend everybody, Pips will be sleeping and Palmer will clean his room at last . And I will think .
  • #5,129
  • Jun 15, 2007 8:49am Jun 15, 2007 8:49am
Quoting kappa
What is that flying high ?
A bird ? An airplane ? Oh, its USD/JPY !!!

.....true....but FUNNY!!!
  • #5,130
  • Jun 15, 2007 8:52am Jun 15, 2007 8:52am
Quoting ira
Have been stopped on my E/U deal, please hit me someone if I open the trade again whithout the MACD signal . Is there a thread of losers or I will start the one . Have a good weekend everybody, Pips will be sleeping and Palmer will clean his room at last . And I will think..

Hi Ira!

No thread for anyone other than Winners!!! Everyone who is trying to learn is a winner!!!!!

& you learned a valuable lesson early in your trading career! Imagine if you won a few times trading against the signal.....

& now, my sleep is normalized so I can live the next few days like a normal person...Palmer....clean his room? .....

Have a great weekend!!!
  • #5,131
  • Jun 15, 2007 8:57am Jun 15, 2007 8:57am
Quoting kunz78
Hi everyone,

I've updated the summary that I've posted a lot of posts ago.
There are always two file:
the first one is a word file zipped that contains important post of the thread
the second one is a zip file that contains all the attachment of the thread (mp3 & pdf)

In the word file there is also a link to all the mp3 posted by Philip.

Here are the links:
File word zipped: http://rapidshare.com/files/37312572/4H_strategy.zip

Attachments: http://rapidshare.com/files/37340484/Attach.zip

the file host site is free but has a time limitation download.
You can dl only x mb per hour, so you have to dl a file, wait a couple of hour then dl the other one.

hope that it helps
Thanks alot

But still I cannt download it .. did I need to be a membre or should I wait more than hour to download it ?
If you not mind .. would you send it to my e-mail [email protected] .. best wishes
  • #5,132
  • Jun 15, 2007 8:59am Jun 15, 2007 8:59am
Quoting ira
Have been stopped on my E/U deal, please hit me someone if I open the trade again whithout the MACD signal . Is there a thread of losers or I will start the one . Have a good weekend everybody, Pips will be sleeping and Palmer will clean his room at last . And I will think .
Dont worry IRA bec i will be sleep walking while cleaning my room and thinking about what am i doing here !!!!.
Hey there is always tommorow , oh wait tommorow is saturday. so there is always a new day. a new plan. a new trade. so keep up your head high and get ready for next trend conituation pattern. whenever that will be!!!
wishing u all a good weekend!!!
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,133
  • Jun 15, 2007 9:00am Jun 15, 2007 9:00am
Quoting BIL2205
Good morning /afternoon everyone.
I am also watching the euro movement. i am kind of nervous entering today with all the dollar news coming out today . the price is hovering on the zero line on MACD so i think the price may go either way. The pair has been acting strangely. so has the market, i am no expert but every pair i look at is giving mixed signals. I might stay out today bec it looks like a hit or miss. The pair is building up for something big and the temptation is there to jump in but i am not experienced enough to know which way the tide will flow.
EUro/ usd shows a round bottom moving towards the 21MA on the DAILY time frame . but that is a counter trend trade.So the actual trend on Daily is also downward(right). and 4 hour is still not confirming a zero bounce. So lets see if i can come up with a plan or just sit this one out,. Good luck IRA and COPE.

Sorry for my ramblings but just a little frustated .Thankyou All.
Nicely thought out! If you can't come up with a plan, don't force it!! You were absolutely right that the mkt was waiting for the inflation data....and Kappa is very keen w/observation about yen pairs causing difficulty for the Majors....

Also, for all you news contrarions...Bloomberg started touted Dollar strength yesterday....(get ready for it to fall!....oh yeah, and Bear Stearns is predicting E/U at 1.25 for year end)....sorry, off topic....

Have a good weekend all...and good luck to all you long term Yen Traders! Talk about guts! (I'll probally regret saying this, but I think an artifical market is being induced right now for the big players to slowly liquidate their contracts...But, what do I know....NOTHING ).

Pips
  • #5,134
  • Jun 15, 2007 9:13am Jun 15, 2007 9:13am
Phillip, would you mind telling me why you choose to mix a SMA into your mix of EMAs? Just curious.

I wrote to you way back on the 22nd of May already and have not heard from you. I trust this time you would, thx.

Regards.
Hercs
  • #5,135
  • Jun 15, 2007 10:00am Jun 15, 2007 10:00am
Ive been following this thread for a few weeks now... thanks Phillip , there is something definately good here...
Do you guys see the following plays for today?? or am I doing this wrong
play#1 : long Eur/usd as of the 10 am est macd with a target of around 1.34 with entry at 10 am est bar at 1.3336 and S/ at 1.3306
play# 2 short Usd/chf - due to nice bounce of resistance of of rising trendline on 4 hr..s/l 1.2465 target around 1.2310...I actually enterd this at short 1.2355 but its taking time to develop becuse it hung around resistance for quite a few bars.... Does this mean it produces a longer down movement if it does... MACD nearing zero... but going downwards since 6/8???? is this preparing for a massive down- short play??
thnaks
  • #5,136
  • Jun 15, 2007 10:39am Jun 15, 2007 10:39am
Quoting avicenna
Ive been following this thread for a few weeks now... thanks Phillip , there is something definately good here...
Do you guys see the following plays for today?? or am I doing this wrong
play#1 : long Eur/usd as of the 10 am est macd with a target of around 1.34 with entry at 10 am est bar at 1.3336 and S/ at 1.3306
play# 2 short Usd/chf - due to nice bounce of resistance of of rising trendline on 4 hr..s/l 1.2465 target around 1.2310...I actually enterd this at short 1.2355 but its taking time to develop becuse it hung around resistance for quite a few bars.... Does this mean it produces a longer down movement if it does... MACD nearing zero... but going downwards since 6/8???? is this preparing for a massive down- short play??
thnaks
Yes,I saw the EU long based on daily chart as discusse earlier in the thread a couple of posts back.I entered at 1.3300 precisely with three lots.Closed 2 lots for 50 pips.Leting last lot run as I believe the EU is still in daily uptrend and we hit that bottom trendline about 9-12 hours ago.This might mean the end of the 4hr downtrend. Who knows?I'm sort of sticking to EU for the moment, but I agree with the USDCHF coments as well.Though I only see USDCHF testing trendline drawn from high as of 13 Oct2006 through to end o Jan 2007 high. Well spotted avicenna!!
  • #5,137
  • Jun 15, 2007 10:44am Jun 15, 2007 10:44am
Quoting kappa
Dear Tamkras,

I read your post again. hmmmmm..... Actually you were suggesting possible long with that post !! After confirming there is no rate hike, nor bullish remark from Fukui, USD/JPY shot up. Next target will be 123.50, then another round number 124..... My gut feeling tells me that other dollar pairs' move will be limited until this upmove stops.

Kappa, I will get back with my musings later today or over the weekend. there is so much happening in the market and apologies for the delay.

Tam
  • #5,138
  • Jun 15, 2007 11:50am Jun 15, 2007 11:50am
Hi all

Stumbled across this thread about a month back. At the time i was trying a few systems... but took the decision to focus on this system and test it out... in general, think still have loads and loads to learn, but am slowly getting there. I realize there is a huge difference to demo trading and the real thing, but I thought I would post my results over the last 5 or so weeks...

Trades 17
won 12 (273 pips)
lost 5 (-123 pips)

net gain of 150.

Majority of the trades were short but also with a few good long trades. I was conservative and took profit around the 20 pip mark (depending on ma's/trendlines) but also at times took profits at 5 pips.

Some self imposed rules - I at first stopped trading on Fridays. I have also started to stop trading on thursdays. May sound weird, but to illistrate my point, at one stage I was 120 pips up by wednesday in a week (my best trade of 80 pips :-)) and i ended the week with a net gain of 4 pips!!!! I found I would get too confident and enter silly trades or start trying to be too clever!

I hope that no one takes this post as a boast! I am no where near there!!! have so much to learn... But I hope it illustrates that this system does work. I have found, thanks to all phillips help and guidance, i understand the movement of the market better now.

I am still going to continue to demo trade this system for next month or so to see how it goes. still have loads to learn!!!

Thank you Phillip (baie dankie :-) ) for all your time on this thread and all other posters!

m
  • #5,139
  • Jun 15, 2007 12:31pm Jun 15, 2007 12:31pm
Hi all,

Like to say i am completely sold on Philips's system and cant thank him enough for sharing it with us and teaching us Price action. All out of his kindness and unselfishness. He has set an example for us to follow. Thank you.

After months of reading and listening to philips explaination, here theory to application (my trade for today). Unfortunately i wasnt filled for my orders @1.9693 even though metatrader showed price did reached my level (i dun know why it wasnt filled. i wonder if it will help if i complaint to my my broker (EFX)

Rationale (sorry cant attached images):
1) Price is at the lower trendline channel for the daily charts
2) MACD is showing a small round btm.
3) Support being found and tested for few days now.
4) Danger as lots of emotion is building (8 and 24emas are close to each other)
5) Sharp drop for past few days, retracement maybe in the horizon.

Limit order set at 1.9693 for 3mini lots SL 20 and 28 pips Target, 22pips and 89ema. Target was hit (orders were not filled but i was happy that i got the direction right.

Do let me know what i hv missed out.

thanks again
  • #5,140
  • Jun 15, 2007 12:42pm Jun 15, 2007 12:42pm
I jumped ship on my EU short about 20 mins before the news so I only lost 12 pips. Would have been much worse if I would have waited. I didn't look at the larger timeframe prior to that entry, I was looking at some room between price and the lower channel tl which is why I thought maybe. The lesson that I've learned, hopefully it sticks in my thick skull this time, is too wait one way or another until MACD confirms the entry. Regardless of the daily, had I waited for that confirmation, I never would have been in that trade. I lack discipline, learning the hard way is usually the way I learn!
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