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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,101
  • Edited 2:47pm Jun 14, 2007 11:54am | Edited 2:47pm
[/quote]
Hi Tam, I keep re reading your excellent posts about inside tops. Please let me know if i am on the right track with the $JPY. If i understand this right, it look like the previous 3 inside tops almost exactly predicted the next major top. This means that we may be looking for 131 plus change. PLease letme nkow what you think. Thanks to you for such great contributions!!!
O'Zeeke
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  • #5,102
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:59am Jun 14, 2007 11:59am
hello everyone., i guess i got my anser for IT . thanks Tam.
How would u guys interpret the long legged doji. on my chart for EURO.USD. Are people buying from the bottom or the market took out the Stop loss of people who were long on this pair.meaning the damage has been done so pair maybe going south from here the price did touch the 21MA and the doji indicates market indecision(right???). Sorry if i am confusing anyone,i am not drawing anyconclusions here, just looking for some help.
So my basic question is about the long tail. thanks for all your help..
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TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,103
  • Jun 14, 2007 12:12pm Jun 14, 2007 12:12pm
Hi Bill2205:

The doji was from news spike from PPI this morning...and I think people would trade it like a pin using the eyes for guidance...Bond yields went from 5.23 to 5.18 with the release...

Happy trading!
  • #5,104
  • Jun 14, 2007 12:34pm Jun 14, 2007 12:34pm
Hi Tam, I keep re reading your excellent posts about inside tops. Please let me know if i am on the right track with the $JPY. If i understand this right, it look like the previous 3 inside tops almost exactly predicted the next major top. This means that we may be looking for 133 plus change. PLease letme nkow what you think. Thanks to you for such great contributions!!!
O'Zeeke[/quote]

Great observation. The third monthly top is currently in the formation. If your patience and account size are friendly with a monthly swing play (no offense meant), you defined the target professionally. You just gave me an excellent idea and I will open a very small, experimental lot of dollar-yen on the long side and will keep it for 1 month. Shall we see what happens in a month? The target is 130.00 and SL is 120.00. R:R is good .
  • #5,105
  • Jun 14, 2007 1:05pm Jun 14, 2007 1:05pm
Quoting ttitto
Hi Ira,

I am following this thread too and agree that there is plenty of good information about market. My target is montly 200 pips trading the 4 majors. I do not know how do you make your backtests but I can not come to a profitable results taking all the signals. For me a winning strategy means rules that can be followed without thinking and at the end one have profit. I think this is not the case. How do you know where would you have placed your targets in the past? Using trendlines is impossible even if you use F12 becauseyou see always the next bar. Switching between charts is also impossible without knowing what comes.
I think this is a good strategy but the smallest error punishes very hard and makes one hesitate to take the next trade. Each loss makes you missing the good trades and every win makes you easier take trades that are not so good.
That is why I think that the knowledge here is very good but we can not speak about a winning strategy.
Hi, ttitto.
I agree that when it comes to trade it is a highly subjective decision. It's the reason why there is still no EA on Phillip's system. That's why this strategy completly goes with my personality. I like to think and analyze. And I have made a list of rules on Phillip's strategy.
As for backtesting, you are right too at the point, that we should not take every signal. I usually had only 5-7 deals a month. I also thought that drawing trend lines is impossible till Pips helped me. I cleaned my chart of all trendlines, then came to the end and draw recent trend lines from tops and bottoms. And started to use F12. But first I wrote where the price was in terms of Market Rhythm, then looked at s/r I draw and thought how the price could behave, after that I waited for MACD signal. But before taking the signal I also looked at the candlesticks. It takes a lot of time, but it helps enormously. My targets were ether on MA's or s/r lines. I always backtest with one lot, but I write where I could have used 2 or more.
  • #5,106
  • Jun 14, 2007 1:40pm Jun 14, 2007 1:40pm
Hi Tam, I keep re reading your excellent posts about inside tops. Please let me know if i am on the right track with the $JPY. If i understand this right, it look like the previous 3 inside tops almost exactly predicted the next major top. This means that we may be looking for 133 plus change. PLease letme nkow what you think. Thanks to you for such great contributions!!!
O'Zeeke[/quote]

I'm sorry for being stupid, but I read and re-read Tamara's posts on IT and IB it seems that I have a slight understanding, but I can't grasp the core of it. So my questions to everyone who can help. The chart posted by O'Zeeke is excellent, I can see clearly 2 IT and there are also 2 IB, am I right? But how you draw your lines, from a consolidation area? I mean when it's history I can see it clearly but when it's forming, how do you know? How many lines do we have? For example, you have one top, then the price startes to go up again, where would your s/r lines be? If the price breaks through IT we go long, if bounces from it we go short, am I right.
  • #5,107
  • Jun 14, 2007 2:37pm Jun 14, 2007 2:37pm
Ok, just trying to understand............price bounced off the 200, through the 89 and the 365. It is currently consolidating just above the 1.3300 area. There is a tl just below current price at about 1.3257 and that is all I see s/r wise. The macd is nearing zero.......so if macd heads south, that would be a tc signal to short as price would have bounced off the 21. Tp would be just above that lower tl right? If the macd breaks through zero and price heads north, we should wait until price bounces off the 365 or 89 before shorting the pair right?

Price is below the 89 so short is the only option for me as a newbie........am I headed in the right direction? If not, please comment as I am trying very hard to understand what is going on.

Thanks

Larry
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  • #5,108
  • Jun 14, 2007 2:53pm Jun 14, 2007 2:53pm
Quoting tamkras
Hi Tam, I keep re reading your excellent posts about inside tops. Please let me know if i am on the right track with the $JPY. If i understand this right, it look like the previous 3 inside tops almost exactly predicted the next major top. This means that we may be looking for 133 plus change. PLease letme nkow what you think. Thanks to you for such great contributions!!!
O'Zeeke
Great observation. The third monthly top is currently in the formation. If your patience and account size are friendly with a monthly swing play (no offense meant), you defined the target professionally. You just gave me an excellent idea and I will open a very small, experimental lot of dollar-yen on the long side and will keep it for 1 month. Shall we see what happens in a month? The target is 130.00 and SL is 120.00. R:R is good .[/quote]

Thanks for the response Tam, and i shall do the same, however 1 mini is all my r/r is good for but it looks promising. See you at 130.00?
  • #5,109
  • Jun 14, 2007 3:12pm Jun 14, 2007 3:12pm
Quoting O'Zeeke
The target is 130.00 and SL is 120.00. R:R is good .
Thanks for the response Tam, and i shall do the same, however 1 mini is all my r/r is good for but it looks promising. See you at 130.00?[/quote]

hey, hope your risk is manageable. I am using fraction of a pip for this deal. I would not notice it even if the deal is blown at 120.00. .
  • #5,110
  • Jun 14, 2007 3:35pm Jun 14, 2007 3:35pm
I'm sorry for being stupid, but I read and re-read Tamara's posts on IT and IB it seems that I have a slight understanding, but I can't grasp the core of it. So my questions to everyone who can help. The chart posted by O'Zeeke is excellent, I can see clearly 2 IT and there are also 2 IB, am I right? But how you draw your lines, from a consolidation area? I mean when it's history I can see it clearly but when it's forming, how do you know? How many lines do we have? For example, you have one top, then the price startes to go up again, where would your s/r lines be? If the price breaks through IT we go long, if bounces from it we go short, am I right.[/quote]

Ira, price action on different timeframes require appropriate lines. When I plan trade on a 4HR chart, I use highs and lows within the whole span of 4HR chart (wish I could use a display from NASA Space Centre for my charts). BUT, I always go 1 step up to confirm the entry, i.e. to daily timeframes. If I trade a daily setup, I should use a weekly TF to validate the setup. Hope it is not complicated. Let me get back to you with some examples for the inside patterns later tonight - they seems like fun..
  • #5,111
  • Jun 14, 2007 5:59pm Jun 14, 2007 5:59pm
Quoting ira
My analysis for E/U:
...
But my analysis tells me that there are more odds that the price will go up at least to the 21MA. But I can't go into deal now because there is no room for me and R:R= will not be OK. So I will watch how the price will behave around 21MA and then make my decision.
How am I doing Pips? Did I understand your lesson?
I followed you from the Daily and 4 hr analysis, but felt that the ascending triange at 1.3314 was setting up for a fall (drops the distance of the vertical length of the triangle from the point of the breakout). Was able to get in at 1.3306 at 5:50 EST and grabbed 20 pips (saved some for the rest of you). At 8am it was still ranging within the triangle. At the NY open, positive news broke price down to the daily pivot point S1 (to the pip) before the Euro rallied back to the 1.3315 mark.
  • #5,112
  • Jun 14, 2007 6:39pm Jun 14, 2007 6:39pm
Dollar-yen so far acts as we discussed yesterday - it broke the upper channel and took out 123.00 level. I am just watching it as if a slow-motion movie. You can see that the price now rests on the broken trendline inviting longs - none of the 4HR candles of today closed below it. However, MACD repeats all over again - sell me! If this line happens to be a support for tomorrow do you want to sell? In my humble opinion, I would short it if the price follows this scenario, i.e. test and failure.
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  • #5,113
  • Edited 8:26pm Jun 14, 2007 7:25pm | Edited 8:26pm
In response to Ira's question on how the IT could be defined on long-term timeframes (such as monthly). The lines that I draw are always straight and horizontal, no slope, regardless of the timeframes. But before we go to the monthly, or weekly timeframes I would prefer if price action on the 4HR and daily timeframes is studied thoroughly as it is progressively impossible to predict on longer timeframes, don't you agree? Let's look at the most recent example of dollaryen I provided yesterday. It's alright I am pulling it out in focus, in this post. When you looked at yesterday's example didn't you wonder why is that the price when retesting the lower channel did not touch it by any candle highs? These highs were just mimicking the upper slope. How to explain this mystery? To me everything becomes clear when the price was rejected at the IT red bar. This is modified version of the same chart. You can see that the high touched the highest low of the previous mountain. Looks simple, eh? Case resolved. I will now move to a more complex stuff based on dollaryen weeklies (but let me get some dinner for my piggy first..she is wining terribly..).

EDIT: 9:25 EST. Folks, MACD-aholics, I will update you tomorrow with my chart whimsies if you do not mind. Too much serious stuff at home. Ok? But I promise this stuff will blow your minds away. Intrigued? Good night then!
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  • #5,114
  • Jun 14, 2007 9:19pm Jun 14, 2007 9:19pm
What do ya'll think of the Eur/Usd? I'm watching it as I type as its hit the 21 and the MACD is right at zero. Will MACD bounce off zero for a TC or is the Euro gaining strength again? Is this a precursor to tomorrow's news? I'm curious to hear the thoughts of this threads more knowledgeable traders.
  • #5,115
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:44pm Jun 14, 2007 11:44pm
Quoting Cope
What do ya'll think of the Eur/Usd? I'm watching it as I type as its hit the 21 and the MACD is right at zero. Will MACD bounce off zero for a TC or is the Euro gaining strength again? Is this a precursor to tomorrow's news? I'm curious to hear the thoughts of this threads more knowledgeable traders.
Hi Cope!
In my humble opinion,and I could of course be wrong,EU may just be gaining strength.EU trend on daily is still definitely up.As you can see on daily chart,MACD gave a beautiful round bottom after candlestick 'emotion'.Tweezer bottom.Finding support on bottom trendline drawn from 13 Oct.2006.According to rules it tends to go back to the 21EMA b4 proceeding on its original path.21EMA currently at 1.3404.Green MA is the 89SMA.In the very least it could go back up to the 8EMA at 1.3348.Just my opinion.
news will decide,but the 'big boys' already know which way it'll go!
many pips to you!
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  • #5,116
  • Jun 15, 2007 1:13am Jun 15, 2007 1:13am
...OR...maybe I spoke too soon...benefit of hindsight ... you get an early TC signal on 1hr chart and a possible TC signal on next candle on the 4hr...but until daily trend is broken,I still believe EU will go up in long run...
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  • #5,117
  • Jun 15, 2007 1:53am Jun 15, 2007 1:53am
Hi all
In my opinion, and I could of course be wrong, EU may just test bottom for the second time.
GL & GT
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc EU 15 Jun 2007.doc   103 KB | 851 downloads
It’s just emotions & money
  • #5,118
  • Jun 15, 2007 2:57am Jun 15, 2007 2:57am
Quoting kunz78
Hi everyone

This thread is going to reach soon 200 pages!!
I've been reading it from a couple of weeks and I found it extremely interesting. Actually it is much more than a trading system.
I would say that is trading itself!! So thanks to Phil that is teaching us everyday something new.

But for everyone that discover it right now, could be difficult start reading the thread from the beginning.
I wanted to do something to help everyone to read it all.

So I tried to create a file word that contains the most interesting post of the thread with all the chart attached in the same file word.
I saved all the Mp3 and the most important PDF contained and put them in a zip file
Where there is post with a PDF or MP3 I put the name of the mp3 so you can easily find it in the zip file above mentioned.

It is not a summary because it is almost 300 pages but I wanted to leave all the useful informations & examples. I've made a subjective selection of what to put in the file. Obviously I put all the post of "Master Phil"!!

The file word zipped is about 8 mb (because of the chart attached in it)
The zipped file with mp3 and pdf weight about 27 MB.
I upload all the files to the following link; it is an host file site free.

Word zipped file

  1. http://rs31tl.rapidshare.com/files/2...H_strategy.zip

Attachment zipped file (mp3 & pdf)

  1. http://rs22l33.rapidshare.com/files/21614033/Attach.zip

I hope that it help!! for me it is very useful: I've printed the 300 page and i study it every evening...

p.s. sorry for my basic english, I hope that you all understand
p.p.s: please PM me if you have any problem downloading the files

Dear all

I was trying to get the above files as tits very important files and good idea for those which cannt go through all the pages .. but I cannt.. would somebody send them to my e-mail or give me another link which I can download them.. Best wishes

[size=3][color=navy][email protected][/color][/size]
  • #5,119
  • Jun 15, 2007 3:03am Jun 15, 2007 3:03am
What is that flying high ?
A bird ? An airplane ? Oh, its USD/JPY !!!
  • #5,120
  • Jun 15, 2007 3:14am Jun 15, 2007 3:14am
Thanks for the feedback on the EU. I set a stop sell for while I slept in case price did bounce off the 21 and go down, which it has a little bit. It hit my entry price of 1.3208 and is back to 3216 as I type. I have a tight stop since (shame on me) I normally don't set orders while I'm not in front of my pc. Macd has not confirmed a bounce yet, but continues to hover at the zero line. Seems as tho this is where price wants to stay until we approach the US reports this AM. Time will tell, and with a tight stop, it was a bit of a force, but may turn out.
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