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Forex - A negative sum game for losers

  • #701
  • Nov 27, 2023 2:10am Nov 27, 2023 2:10am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} I am 0% consistently profitable in the negative
...if you say so, buddy!
We've known each other for a long time and you might not believe it, but I'm happy for you if it's true
Member
  • #702
  • Nov 27, 2023 2:15am Nov 27, 2023 2:15am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Nice relative stuff, thank you ! That's why "they" invented the standard deviation, to avoid being caught in such sophisticated traps FX is in fact a 50-50 game in the long run so, at least theoretically, there are no winners in the long run. Simple math. But my EA contradicts me, it continuously running a stupid strategy since 2014 ...but I don't trust it, I trust math!
we are little same, EA and manuell trading. i like standard deviation, so i know near exactly in whatrange will be my equity tommorow with a very high chance.
until now i am consistently profitable since starting 20 years ago (like you said, math helps a lot) , but who knows, maybe when market change structure because less would lose, then something changes some day. but because of experience advantage we should be adopting fast.

but your calculation is wrong in my opinion. its not a 50-50 game. its connected probability (against unconnected in for example roulette) between the price and last price, so changes everything. at least in so many situations.
  • #703
  • Nov 27, 2023 2:20am Nov 27, 2023 2:20am
Quoting Trader191
{quote} we are little same, EA and manuell trading. i like standard deviation, so i know near exactly in whatrange will be my equity tommorow with a very high chance. until now i am consistently profitable since starting 20 years ago (like you said, math helps a lot) , but who knows, maybe when market change structure because less would lose, then something changes some day. but because of experience advantage we should be adopting fast. but your calculation is wrong. its not a 50-50 game. its connected probability between the prices, so changes...
Although maths cuts like a razor, hope never dies, huh?
Good luck, buddy, whatever you do out there!
Member
  • #704
  • Nov 27, 2023 2:21am Nov 27, 2023 2:21am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Although maths cuts like a razor, hope never dies, huh? Good luck, buddy, whatever you do out there!
just trading, nothing special , nothing difficult after decades doing it. same like in any job.

same for you.

just avoid all mistakes you can do by establish all so mistakes cant happen. often funny how complicated people design their trading life and avoid doing most basic solutions. and for rest mistakes (like do sell for a buy, wrong currency buying,.....) your edge should be big enough to compensate.
  • #705
  • Nov 27, 2023 2:26am Nov 27, 2023 2:26am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} ...but I'm happy for you if it's true
LoL
  • #706
  • Nov 27, 2023 2:28am Nov 27, 2023 2:28am
Quoting Trader191
{quote} just trading, nothing special , nothing difficult after decades doing it. same like in any job. same for you. just avoid all mistakes you can do by establish all so mistakes cant happen. often funny how complicated people design their trading life and avoid doing most basic solutions. and for rest mistakes (like do sell for a buy, wrong currency buying,.....) your edge should be big enough to compensate.
How to avoid mistakes

Every time I try to trade she pulls me into bed
  • #707
  • Nov 27, 2023 2:29am Nov 27, 2023 2:29am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} How to avoid mistakes Every time I try to trade she pulls me into bed
many solutions:

- dont wash yourself, maybe helps that she miss you out this day
- get gay
- dont shave

  • #708
  • Nov 27, 2023 2:31am Nov 27, 2023 2:31am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} How to avoid mistakes Every time I try to trade she pulls me into bed
she pulls me into bed.. yeah, yeah, excuses, excuses!

Quoting Trader191
{quote} many solutions: - dont wash yourself, maybe helps that she miss you out this day - get gay - dont shave
I guess that's too much, one can lose his self respect if he does all that ...and still be a loser as a retail FX trader
Member
  • #709
  • Nov 27, 2023 6:58am Nov 27, 2023 6:58am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} So negative-sum starting points imo have nothing really to do with any potential profitability in Forex Trading. Which is entirely down to the trader and when they subsequently exit their trade. (While comms do add a little to a losing trade and remove a little from a winning trade they are actually NOT the reason imo for any trader becoming OR being restricted to being a “loser” as the thread title here suggests) The phrases zero-sum and negative-sum are derived originally from Game Theory. Not Trading Theory. Linking the phrases, both...
I'm sorry but trading costs are the main reason wha this is a negative sum game. This whole industry wouldn't exist without that. And don't compare shops to trading. Two diffent worlds. We are actually not even trading, we' are betting on the future price, so guessing, gambling.
Sure, costs of doing business where costs are bigger then profit. And order flow, yeah, what about it? It keeps changing all the time, so unless you have a crystall ball, I don't know
Sorry but betting on buy or sell has no edge. Actually, you're not betting on buy/sell only, there's also a distance added to the mix. If you change your risk reward ratio, you also change statistical probabilities of hitting one of those two targets so you're back to zero with cost on top, so negative.

If it would only be that easy to just use risk reward ratio of let's say that typical 1:2. This whole industry wouldn't exist if that would work. Become a broker, market maker or a hedge fund manager if you want to make money. Why do you think they call of dumb money.
  • #710
  • Nov 27, 2023 9:21am Nov 27, 2023 9:21am
Quoting YoMoney
{quote} I'm sorry but trading costs are the main reason wha this is a negative sum game. This whole industry wouldn't exist without that. And don't compare shops to trading. Two diffent worlds. We are actually not even trading, we' are betting on the future price, so guessing, gambling. Sure, costs of doing business where costs are bigger then profit. And order flow, yeah, what about it? It keeps changing all the time, so unless you have a crystall ball, I don't know Sorry but betting on buy or sell has no edge. Actually, you're not betting...
if you bet on the future price, no wonder you dont make a win in currencies.
in currencies you should with a good broker bet on the cfd that are copy of the interbank OTC price of the LP integrated in this broker.

dont add disadvantages or you get the result of this. trading is a game of collect advantages and avoid disadvantages.

with risk reward you are right, many dont know strategy math calculations and circle analyses. and when they dont have a good entry point or bad analyze technique, next best is use many entries over different points and so they end with scale in and out. this way they get less win and higher drawdown for this ... but some edge are big enough so they can compensate this mistakes and live with this lower wins . some also like the psychological effect not to do one full size bet (even when best by math and win and drawdown).
  • #711
  • Nov 27, 2023 4:53pm Nov 27, 2023 4:53pm
Quoting YoMoney
{quote}
I'm sorry but trading costs are the main reason wha this is a negative sum game.
This whole industry wouldn't exist without that. And don't compare shops to trading. Two diffent worlds. We are actually not even trading, we' are betting on the future price, so guessing, gambling. Sure, costs of doing business where costs are bigger then profit. And order flow, yeah, what about it? It keeps changing all the time, so unless you have a crystall ball, I don't know Sorry but betting on buy or sell has no edge....

Hi Yo,

No need to be sorry in regards to quoting my post.

Though the fact of this being a "negative sum game' was never my bone of contention
If you think my post was saying that, then I pray you can read a chart better then my (sometimes long, sorry ) posts.

My point was, is, and always will be that ....

The "zero or negative sum" aspect of forex trading is NOT THE MAIN REASON why most traders are losers.

That, is likely because they are trading against the current order flow.

I wish you well, of course, with your trading
  • #712
  • Nov 28, 2023 12:17am Nov 28, 2023 12:17am
Quoting YoMoney
{quote} I'm sorry but trading costs are the main reason wha this is a negative sum game. This whole industry wouldn't exist without that. And don't compare shops to trading. Two diffent worlds. We are actually not even trading, we' are betting on the future price, so guessing, gambling. Sure, costs of doing business where costs are bigger then profit. And order flow, yeah, what about it? It keeps changing all the time, so unless you have a crystall ball, I don't know Sorry but betting on buy or sell has no edge. Actually, you're not betting...
Hi
I wouldn't have thought there are clear mind sane people on FF. Thanks
Member
  • #713
  • Dec 8, 2023 11:03am Dec 8, 2023 11:03am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Yo, No need to be sorry in regards to quoting my post. Though the fact of this being a "negative sum game' was never my bone of contention If you think my post was saying that, then I pray you can read a chart better then my (sometimes long, sorry ) posts. My point was, is, and always will be that .... The "zero or negative sum" aspect of forex trading is NOT THE MAIN REASON why most traders are losers. That, is likely because they are trading against the current order flow. I wish you well, of course, with your trading...
but 50% need to lose (in capital, amount of people of course need more then 50% lose simple by client constructure) . when noone bet against order flow, how someone can bet with order flow and a trade will establish? so market is not constructed this way and dont work like this. you need always someone on other side to get a trade done and your position open or close.
  • #714
  • Dec 8, 2023 6:27pm Dec 8, 2023 6:27pm
Quoting Trader191
{quote}
but 50% need to lose (in capital, amount of people of course need more then 50% lose simple by client constructure) . when noone bet against order flow, how someone can bet with order flow and a trade will establish? so market is not constructed this way and dont work like this.
you need always someone on other side to get a trade done and your position open or close.

Hi T191

"but 50% need to lose"
By definition alone I agree

"you need always someone on other side to get a trade done and your position open or close"
But who is this mysterious "someone". Do traders even think about the "process" of the business in total, do we think another trader is just sitting there each time at the EXACT moment we trade with the EXACT OPPOSITE trade & size we wish to effect.
Or is something taking ALL of the trades on our behalf (both buys AND sells) and aggregating them first (ie not necessarily some other trader is involved)

- -
50% need to lose is not really a total reality in regards to JUST THE "retail trader vs retail trader" situation for our retail trading imo.
We in retail imo are not directly linked to interbank trades but are handled by intermediate lower level Liquidity Providers.
Who themselves may ‘eventually’ move any of their aggregated trades (NOT individual trades) higher up into the liquidity chain at some point, not immediately tho
But maybe these lower level LPs would only move them based on their own internal risk parameters at the time (nothing to do with individual 50/50 trades).

Think about it.
Who knows, not me, but what if our broker LPs via aggregation take all our retail trades, all the buys & all the sells ie they may not care about one side of the collective trades and decide to run with them ALL in a some total B-Book LP-like aggregation above our brokerage firms. Again, who knows.

So I still say, and few seem to get the gist it seems (I hope they see their own trades with more clarity)
Imo it is NOT the zero-sum aspect (50/50) of trading that is the main reason why traders lose.
A trade can only be lost by closing (at loss) a trade that was being held onto against the current order flow. Else YOU win if you close a trade in profit.
You get into profit when your trade is (now) in the direction of the current order flow.

And also once we put a trade on that is the end of our involvement in regards to where price will go.
So in essence our trade outcomes are then determined by other traders who trade after us and where price eventually goes then (ie NOT our indicators etc).

I suggest to traders wishing to genuinely pursue this difficult & often dangerous endeavour & who might be doing it tough at present to forget any ZeroSum aspect
And CERTAINLY DO NOT use zero-sum as a direct blame away from yourself as a trader for losing (stop the blame game lol, it is you)
What if the majority of losing a/cs are those traders who are undercapitalised & trading “all in” just to double those accounts quickly.
What if the majority of winning a/cs are less leveraged & more professionally handled. Just like a business with all the ensuing “costs of doing business”

Not all trading a/cs are handled or established in exactly the same way.
But if using ZeroSum makes a trader feel okay about their losing (ie I was always going to lose & nothing I could ever do about it) then continue with that mindset.
Else pick yourself up by your coattails and find out what you are doing that is not in harmony with the movement of price in the market.

And if folks think that if retail (about 5% of the total market) ALL STARTED WINNING then the Forex Currency Market would just collapse are totally mistaken and do not understand the nature of the global currency exchange and its REAL purpose.

And it IS possible for ALL retail traders to win (tho NOT probable at all), and if so then WHO would hold the losing trade.
(clue, NOT just another retail trader, it's higher up).

We are not flipping a coin with price movement. We are trying to move WITH the market.

All the best, trade safe & (then) trade well
  • #715
  • Dec 8, 2023 11:53pm Dec 8, 2023 11:53pm
Quoting tunera
95% of all businesses fail within a few years. Most of businesses failure means also huge debts. A positive thing about "stocks/fx/futures/options/commodities Trading" is that traders who fail end up without money in their trading account, but no debts.
It’s true what you said but the fact is that some traders are capable of learning through losing whereas some others are never successful.
  • #716
  • Dec 13, 2023 12:57am Dec 13, 2023 12:57am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} i can start from any tiny amount and grow to a million in a set time period, i have done it many times forex is pure economics {image}
You are so confident man, I suppose that there's a very small amount of truth in your words.
However, the confidence you have is something that many traders are lacking of to attain their goals, so I suppose that it would be better spreading this confience in the masses to let others become the same.
It's possible to grow a tree from a seed, but it's not as simple as you are claiming right now.
  • #717
  • Dec 13, 2023 5:13am Dec 13, 2023 5:13am
Quoting Raincrusher
{quote} You are so confident man, I suppose that there's a very small amount of truth in your words. However, the confidence you have is something that many traders are lacking of to attain their goals, so I suppose that it would be better spreading this confience in the masses to let others become the same. It's possible to grow a tree from a seed, but it's not as simple as you are claiming right now.
When I started stocks I had just 100 inr in my pocket and zero knowledge

With every market crash my wealth grew 5 to 50 times because I was invested in small cap index of 250 companies

Today i have crossed 650 million inr.

Same goes with forex, technique is important not amount
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  • #718
  • Dec 13, 2023 6:58am Dec 13, 2023 6:58am
Retail forex trading is aimed at a particular audience (a type of young male with strong opinions as well as people who are desperate to make money quickly) by disreputable persons like Greg Sekker and Andrew Tate.

The only people who make money in it are the multi-level marketing gurus and people who sell systems and courses.

It's actually indistinguishable from fraud.
  • #719
  • Jan 18, 2024 9:34pm Jan 18, 2024 9:34pm
Quoting Velarcus
{quote} This thread is full of good information about why day trading is stupid, but it doesn't offer much evidence that it is the foreign exchange market's fault. Day traders of stocks are also mostly losers. Commodity futures too. Most people actually do make money investing in stocks, but most people don't day trade. And the foreign exchange market is NOT a negative sum game because the spreads and commissions don't disappear, they go in the brokers pocket. It is a 3 participant game. So, is forex a zero sum game for losers, or are loser day...
It's true that day trading is often challenging, with many participants facing losses across various markets, including stocks and commodity futures. While most people tend to make money through long-term stock investments, day trading is a different ball game.
Regarding the foreign exchange market, it's not necessarily a zero-sum game for losers. The dynamics involve spreads and commissions, contributing to a three-participant game. It's not solely about losers; it's a complex arena where successful trading requires skill, strategy, and understanding of market dynamics. The attraction of loser day traders to forex may be due to its accessibility and potential for quick gains, but success depends on individual trading approaches and market understanding.
  • #720
  • Jan 19, 2024 1:43am Jan 19, 2024 1:43am
usd weakness

this chart template FORCES ME TO MAKE MONEY at price point
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