Short-term trading for 2024

Prepared for next week. Let's get it. Let's be professional about this

I made 1.6R today. But I traded terribly. It started really well but then I got home at like 4PM and after that I had nothing to do, so I ended up on the couch watching twitch streams and constantly opening & closing tradingview.

.

The lowest TF I watch is H1. But I still opened and closed it like 15 times per hour. What is the point? Just quick dopamine, "did smth happen?".

Due to this constant checking I mismanaged a trade and took another bad trade. But longing /ES off the H1 demand was good today so I still got paid over all.

The lesson is: have something to do. Only check the markets at most on H1 close.

I need more hobbies / stuff to do. It's anyways not good to just waste away days at 22 years old like some 80yo that does nothing all day.

Yesterday I got screwed by the FTMO CFD spread. I was short NQ and the futures didn't stop me out but FTMOs CFD's did. Probably the biggest L I have taken in my career so far in terms of how brutal it was lol. Fun times fun times

Took another stop-out. Planned a long on GU but didn't pull the trigger, missed 1.5R.

I'm taking next week off. I need to regroup mentally. I don't even think I did anything egregiously bad, I just need to regroup IRL.

Good week. One thing to focus on for next week, and forever: get out at the level. Just take the obvious TP point and get out at it. Don't try to fill imbalances, don't try to go for 10R trades. Just take the 2.3R or 5R or whatever it offers and get out. NQ short this week great example. Don't look to fill imbalances lower, just TP at the level.

Preparing for next week. From experience it seems like there's an inverse relationship between how much someone types about doing a thing and how well they actually do that thing. Seems to be true in my life and also in the lives of professionals and successful people in any field. So I'll just do it.

Fuck it we ball

Shit execution. I had the 2R planned to the H12 clean highs. Good trade idea, H12 +SFP and H1 break of structure and good demand zone to enter at the level. 1 min before CPI I thought man this will be a big move, fuck it move the TP all the way up to W1 swing high.

What happens on CPI? It hits my original TP perfectly and then goes to zero.

It's only Wednesday but there's 3 things I can improve on:

EU long
I should not have taken this. The H1 MSB just isn't there. It didn't actually break structure just traded above a random swing high. Not clean, not a A+ 5* setup.

GU long
This was a good trade, valid H1 MSB. Entered at the level and held even when it went against me. But as I said above on CPI I moved the TP because I got emotional and a 2.3R winner turned into a loser.

ES long
There was a valid setup which I looked at but did not take because it rejected the highs so hard. But the setup was still very clean, in line with HTF bias, at HTF level, strong H1 demand.


Why did it happen?
I think residual tilt. These are common mistakes for me and I'm sick of making them. But I don't think about that if my tilt / stress builds up over the week and then I make the same mistakes.

How can I fix it?
Working directly on stress management.

Example from Abetrade @ tradingriot.com on market structure, this is why the EU long was not valid.

Solid week. +2.8R, but could have been 3.9R if I had just held this long (closed manually for 0.1R):

FTMO challenge update - 2.5 months, back to breakeven. it will basically be like starting a fresh challenge next year.

no use in typing a lot but I really feel like I have hit my groove here.

Finally, December PnL:

I really like these calendars, when I have a month I'm really proud of I'm putting it on the wall

Imagine if I hadn't closed this early like this. The amount of cash I've lost out on due to closing trades early and not taking good trades is obscene. I still have a long way to go.

About holidays and vacations:
It seems from my personal study that price action is mostly the same even during the holidays / summer, with the exception being on bank holidays which typically have quite bad PA. It seems like I could trade those time periods just fine. But vacations are important and I think it makes sense to take one when the whole world is on vacation too. So during Christmas / new years, and during the summer. It's the same observation I made for trading high impact news, it really seems to be +EV. Don't get scared and close a valid trade or skip out on a trade just because it's a vacation period (if you're trading at all) and don't do it ahead of high impact news. Just let it be.

Not trading week 1, but here's a clean trade: range high deviated, broke lower on H12, at range high / -breaker. Clean H1 supply zone, very strong reaction. TP at range midpoint stops.

H1 supply in H12 supply. Very strong move away, valid zone. In line with H12 structure. After we sweeped the W1 highs and put in some small range candles I think a pullback could be expected. Could target a lot lower for potential 9R.

Reacted cleanly earlier today. Conscious competence: don't close it early.

I love studying old PA to see that markets have moved the same way for a long time. Here's a clean H1 setup just like the ones I trade, in February 2002. H1 SFP and MSB, pullback to supply, target clean lows. Volume was lower back then but the logic stands. It was even at a H12 supply zone

Conscious competence #2: I have a habit of targeting too far out. Don't do that, don't get greedy. Just target the obvious stops and take the 4R. Also don't mismanage it and close it early.

0.1 pips from TP on FTMO..... good start to the year lol

I love trading

I got bored and decided to make a youtube video about a setup. We'll see how it plays out.