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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,081
  • Jun 14, 2007 3:30am Jun 14, 2007 3:30am
Quoting tamkras
it might be just an unlucky number - June 13. Why did it happen on Wednesday? I have no idea. I looked at the Dow, yes it was almost flat today but then bang! Looks like today's positive news from the US (Retail Sales up beating expectations) had no impact on euro at all as its dollar counterpart. What apparently happened is that the smart money (oxymoron) took almost half a day to realize that more sales = more inventory orders also propelled by a cheap dollar = expectations of higher stock earnings. So, the money moved again overseas to borrow the hammered yen (will they ever stop printing it?) and buy stocks. Dow surged in the afternoon hours. I saw this only after the fact. Dollar-yen will probably take out 123.00 today (but do not buy rumours!) and I will want to see if it builds value beyond that mark, i.e. staying there, at least for 2 days.

Ahh...if only I had know the date.... (I really think 13 is lucky...)

Interesting that the market rallied today....last Wed. Bloomberg reported a new "trend" where the Dow had been down for the last 4 Wed. then rebounded on Thursday....So last week was the 5th week it happened (the next report correlated it as a sign the bull run was over in Dow)...So, this week...The market manipulators know everyone is going short?

Now, Bloomberg keeps talking about how strong the dollar is getting...just broke important level on the dollar index, and the bear run is done...hmmmm...? Last month the dollar was collapsing.....

Gotta love the spin doctors!

Hope everyone has been trading... well this week (it has been hard)...Cable should finally break soon...Notice price is squished between 89 and 8 on daily and all the longer term averages on 4 hour seem to be narrowing...is a change of trend near for Cable?

I'm still blown away by Ira's analysis of U/J! Never would have thought 2 days ago 123.00 was in the cards.....Only FXHermit and Ira!!

Nice Job to the new participants who had their first win yesterday w/ E/U countertrades!

Happy trading!

Pips
  • #5,082
  • Jun 14, 2007 5:37am Jun 14, 2007 5:37am
Hi Guys,
I was in a system latley which I found it so hard for me.It was mostly based on chart reading and price motion not rules so it needed too much experience
I am wondering is this system easy to use?simple enough for a new hardwork ,inexperienced trader?
My other question is what was your average monthly pips when you start.Is anybody got to 300+ like Philip.
Anyways with over 500,000 viewers I guess this would be my SYSTEM!!

Thanks
Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #5,083
  • Edited 6:02am Jun 14, 2007 5:51am | Edited 6:02am
My analysis for E/U:
on the daily the price went through the 89, but still hasn't gone back to the 21 (which it might do). It sits right on the trend line. And there is a HAMMER.
On the 4H the price is in consolidation at the moment, and there was a hammer too, which means to me the emotions are uncertain. There is trend line and a strong support 1.3300 level and the price is above it. The price sits right on the 8MA. It also looks like there is an ascending triangle. I don't see any ND on this pair now.
So if the price closes below TL, level 1.3300 and triangle line I may go short using 1H for early entry.
But my analysis tells me that there are more odds that the price will go up at least to the 21MA. But I can't go into deal now because there is no room for me and R:R= will not be OK. So I will watch how the price will behave around 21MA and then make my decision.
How am I doing Pips? Did I understand your lesson?
  • #5,084
  • Jun 14, 2007 6:13am Jun 14, 2007 6:13am
Quoting mike1349
Hi Guys,
I was in a system latley which I found it so hard for me.It was mostly based on chart reading and price motion not rules so it needed too much experience
I am wondering is this system easy to use?simple enough for a new hardwork ,inexperienced trader?
My other question is what was your average monthly pips when you start.Is anybody got to 300+ like Philip.
Anyways with over 500,000 viewers I guess this would be my SYSTEM!!

Thanks
Mike
Hi, Mike. If you inexperienced trader you may consider yourself very, very lucky to come to Phillip's thread. Even if you will not use his strategy, all the knowledge he shared with us about market is priceless. When I first came to this thread (that happened on the 19/03/07, it's the first inscription in my trading journal, which I started due to the thread too ) I was an absolute loser in Forex. I knew only basic notions, but this thread changed my all understanding of the market. It gave me a professional approach to this business, yes, I started to treat it as business.
As for your other question, I haven't got 300+ yet, but my backtesting easily shows it. I am trading the system only for a month, but I learn everyday.
So welcome!
  • #5,085
  • Edited 6:29am Jun 14, 2007 6:18am | Edited 6:29am
Hi Ira,

Nice job! You are starting to pay attention to the details on the chart!

Noticed you think price may go up (and that is what 4 hour could be indicating at the moment)...what about planning either/or scenarios? (actually, I think that is what you are doing...w/the analysis of price around the 21...also keep an eye on the MA's on the hourly and see if price starts moving away from them as it may indicate price continuing in the "fast track" of 8 EMA downtrend. Also, flip to the daily...Current price is at IT of 1.3304....

Mental flexibility is extremely important for us to develope (if this and this = long or if this and this = short). That's what I'm struggling with at the moment, fluidity of mind ....of course I may be delusional b/c of lack of sleep....

Am I overwhelming you? Gosh, You are doing GREAT!!! & You are right on about the emotion in the market now.....We should see some serious action within the next 24 hours....

Again, Ira, You are doing an AMAZING job!!!

Pips

PS...Palmer...any thoughts on E/U?
  • #5,086
  • Jun 14, 2007 6:28am Jun 14, 2007 6:28am
Quoting mike1349
Hi Guys,
I was in a system latley which I found it so hard for me.It was mostly based on chart reading and price motion not rules so it needed too much experience
I am wondering is this system easy to use?simple enough for a new hardwork ,inexperienced trader?
My other question is what was your average monthly pips when you start.Is anybody got to 300+ like Philip.
Anyways with over 500,000 viewers I guess this would be my SYSTEM!!

Thanks
Mike
Hi Mike!

Yes, the system delivers what it promises, provided you can trade the good signals and can spend the time to develop the nec. trading skills to make trading your business. Take your time, work hard, practice on historical charts and paper trade/demo trade at first. Ask questions and you will be aided by many very helpful traders on this thread (Phillip is amazing). You do need to read all his material and listen to the MP3's...good luck!

Pips
  • #5,087
  • Jun 14, 2007 7:16am Jun 14, 2007 7:16am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Ira,

Nice job! You are starting to pay attention to the details on the chart!

Noticed you think price may go up (and that is what 4 hour could be indicating at the moment)...what about planning either/or scenarios? (actually, I think that is what you are doing...w/the analysis of price around the 21...also keep an eye on the MA's on the hourly and see if price starts moving away from them as it may indicate price continuing in the "fast track" of 8 EMA downtrend. Also, flip to the daily...Current price is at IT of 1.3304....

Mental flexibility is extremely important for us to develope (if this and this = long or if this and this = short). That's what I'm struggling with at the moment, fluidity of mind ....of course I may be delusional b/c of lack of sleep....

Am I overwhelming you? Gosh, You are doing GREAT!!! & You are right on about the emotion in the market now.....We should see some serious action within the next 24 hours....

Again, Ira, You are doing an AMAZING job!!!

Pips

PS...Palmer...any thoughts on E/U?
Thanks Pips, I want to be a good pupil . Yes, you are absolutly right I forgot about the most important thing, we are in a down trend (below 89), and on a very fast lane!!!
Can you, please, explain in detail IT on the daily, as I am focused on learning it. But, if you need to sleep, go ahead, I can wait .
  • #5,088
  • Jun 14, 2007 8:17am Jun 14, 2007 8:17am
Hi ira,

The attached is my understanding of the daily IT's for EUR/USD.

You can see several 4hr candles are rejected at 1.3315.Today's battlefield is between 1.3286 and 1.3315. Which way to breakthrough is still unknown.

I hope my understanding is correct so that I do not have to bother Pips. She is really overdedicating to us !!!
Attached Image
  • #5,089
  • Jun 14, 2007 8:28am Jun 14, 2007 8:28am
Quoting ira
Hi, Mike. If you inexperienced trader you may consider yourself very, very lucky to come to Phillip's thread. Even if you will not use his strategy, all the knowledge he shared with us about market is priceless. When I first came to this thread (that happened on the 19/03/07, it's the first inscription in my trading journal, which I started due to the thread too ) I was an absolute loser in Forex. I knew only basic notions, but this thread changed my all understanding of the market. It gave me a professional approach to this business, yes, I started to treat it as business.
As for your other question, I haven't got 300+ yet, but my backtesting easily shows it. I am trading the system only for a month, but I learn everyday.
So welcome!
Hi Ira,

I am following this thread too and agree that there is plenty of good information about market. My target is montly 200 pips trading the 4 majors. I do not know how do you make your backtests but I can not come to a profitable results taking all the signals. For me a winning strategy means rules that can be followed without thinking and at the end one have profit. I think this is not the case. How do you know where would you have placed your targets in the past? Using trendlines is impossible even if you use F12 becauseyou see always the next bar. Switching between charts is also impossible without knowing what comes.
I think this is a good strategy but the smallest error punishes very hard and makes one hesitate to take the next trade. Each loss makes you missing the good trades and every win makes you easier take trades that are not so good.
That is why I think that the knowledge here is very good but we can not speak about a winning strategy.
  • #5,090
  • Jun 14, 2007 9:01am Jun 14, 2007 9:01am
Quoting ttitto
Hi Ira,

I am following this thread too and agree that there is plenty of good information about market. My target is montly 200 pips trading the 4 majors. I do not know how do you make your backtests but I can not come to a profitable results taking all the signals. For me a winning strategy means rules that can be followed without thinking and at the end one have profit. I think this is not the case. How do you know where would you have placed your targets in the past? Using trendlines is impossible even if you use F12 becauseyou see always the next bar. Switching between charts is also impossible without knowing what comes.
I think this is a good strategy but the smallest error punishes very hard and makes one hesitate to take the next trade. Each loss makes you missing the good trades and every win makes you easier take trades that are not so good.
That is why I think that the knowledge here is very good but we can not speak about a winning strategy.
Hi ttitto,

I have a couple of questions/thoughts for you....

1. Why can't you backtest w/your system? If you start w/the info in front of you, and draw your lines and start practicing from there, you shouldn't know what comes next. Or does your system put two candles at a time when you go forward? If so, tape a piece of paper over the area maybe? Just practice w/4 hour entries..don't switich between charts.

2. Discretionary trading is thinking...but you can make rules that you follow in your trading plan to enter (if this, and this, and this, enter). You do need to trust your analysis, and that comes with practice. Learn 1 pair first...trade it well, then add another. Don't jump around looking for a trade (that's how we force the system and get into losing trades)

3. Why are your losses large? How many pips are you losing in your trades? How are you planning your trades? When you were posting your charts on the forum before, you looked like you were doing really good analysis. I think the difference between a consistently profitable and not profitable trader is s/l placement. Don't force a trade to fit your stop. Look at the market objectively...where do you think it could go if there is a blip in econ data or stop running? Put your stop out of that area...if it is too far away, place an entry order closer to the level so your stop is reasonable (many candles have retraces in price before continuing in direction of "trend"). Cancel the order if MACD signal dramatically changes and your order hasn't triggered.

I don't think it is fair to say we aren't talking about a winning strategy because we don't have the psychological part of trading under control. You are absolutely correct that it may not be a winning strategy for you b/c it is too hard to follow your rules of entry. That is not the strategies fault (it is just not suitable to your trading style maybe?). Honestly, this system has elevated my results immensely...prior to 4 hour MACD my results were good, now they are amazing. You could be focusing your efforts on too many pairs...try only trading 1 pair (if you only want 200 pips per month 1 pair should be able to give you that alone!)....following this system swissie alone has given that to me in a few days...regularly..Cable too (cable is much harder though & stop placement and timing is crucial to your success). With all that said, the strategy is hard because I do a lot of waiting...and waiting....and waiting . Try using only the 4 hour chart for a while and 1 or 2 pairs.

Hope some of these ideas/thoughts help improve your results.

Best to you,
Pips
  • #5,091
  • Jun 14, 2007 9:06am Jun 14, 2007 9:06am
Quoting kappa
Hi ira,

The attached is my understanding of the daily IT's for EUR/USD.

You can see several 4hr candles are rejected at 1.3315.Today's battlefield is between 1.3286 and 1.3315. Which way to breakthrough is still unknown.

I hope my understanding is correct so that I do not have to bother Pips. She is really overdedicating to us !!!

Hi Kappa & Ira,

Nicely done, Kappa! I was thinking too...our prices may be a bit different b/c our broker feeds/prices are slightly different (have been meaning to say this in general but keep forgeting)...also,

Ira, I made a mistake on my daily IT L "quote" earlier...It is really .3296 (the current price was covering the tag and I misread)....

My TL's havent been updated on daily for E/U...but here is a copy of my chart..Also, no sleep time yet...gotta watch the mkt for a bit during NY...and I'm waiting for my trade price to trigger....so I type on the forum while I wait.....and wait....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,092
  • Edited 11:46am Jun 14, 2007 10:03am | Edited 11:46am
hello, fellow traders,

just let me add some thoughts to the current IT euro discussion. There are currently 2 IT formations within eurodollar as I see them (it is an open discussion, isn't it?). I will not place charts in order not to clutter Phil's thread. So, there is a long-term IT formed on March 26 this year @1.3270. Yesterday's daily tail fits in this long-term formation. There is also today's, short-term, IT @ 1.3278 when today's low (so far) was testing yesterday's low. My charts are 4HR timeframes.

EDIT: My big apologies to Pips and Kappa (I still must under shock of yesterday's loss..). I truly meant Inside Bottom formation with eurodollar (IB), not the IT. Me very bad! Whew, hope it settles. Pips is right about IT.
  • #5,093
  • Jun 14, 2007 10:14am Jun 14, 2007 10:14am
Hoping someone with experience will give 2 cents on this analysis..............

Over all trend is up. Price broke through the 89 but has not re-tested it yet. There is a shorter term tl that price has respected 4 out of 5 times. Price is now bouncing off that tl on the 4h chart. MACD shows a round top above 45. Typically in the past when the MACD has been near or over 45 there has been a good retrace. Price is now around 242.00 but this price does not seem to have been a s/r point in the near past. Entry at 242.03 sl at 242.33 pt at 241.73 rr:1.

If I understand right, price should be expected to retest the 89 before continuing it's trend up. I realize this is a counter trend trade but with the round top and price bouncing off the tl I decided to give it a try. I guess profit target would be somewhere near the 89 but I am a newbie and trying to not be greedy, hence the 30 pip profit target for me.

Thanks again to all that have been so helpful!
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  • #5,094
  • Jun 14, 2007 10:33am Jun 14, 2007 10:33am
Quoting lmark
Hoping someone with experience will give 2 cents on this analysis..............

Over all trend is up. Price broke through the 89 but has not re-tested it yet. There is a shorter term tl that price has respected 4 out of 5 times. Price is now bouncing off that tl on the 4h chart. MACD shows a round top above 45. Typically in the past when the MACD has been near or over 45 there has been a good retrace. Price is now around 242.00 but this price does not seem to have been a s/r point in the near past. Entry at 242.03 sl at 242.33 pt at 241.73 rr:1.

If I understand right, price should be expected to retest the 89 before continuing it's trend up. I realize this is a counter trend trade but with the round top and price bouncing off the tl I decided to give it a try. I guess profit target would be somewhere near the 89 but I am a newbie and trying to not be greedy, hence the 30 pip profit target for me.

Thanks again to all that have been so helpful!
Hi Imark,

I have no idea w/this pair...it has been weird...but I can say you are setting the odds against you w/such a close stop for G/J...hope you don't mind my input....I'm very focused on stops lately...w/the high spread too...no room to breathe...

I wish you the best w/this trade,

Pips
  • #5,095
  • Jun 14, 2007 10:43am Jun 14, 2007 10:43am
Thanks pips, and you were right, stopped out. Oh well, back to the drawing board.
  • #5,096
  • Jun 14, 2007 10:44am Jun 14, 2007 10:44am
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  • #5,097
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:00am Jun 14, 2007 11:00am
Hi Tamkras,

I found 1.3270 when I switched to 0 GMT chart. The chart I posted is -2 GMT chart.


To Imark,

I am a newbie too. But I am more cautious than before if I were to enter short to such a pair as G/J. You drew a wonderful TL which are still being tested by current 4 hr candles. This TL still holds good. Hope you a good luck with your trade.
  • #5,098
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:30am Jun 14, 2007 11:30am
Thank you Phillip, I have been studying your 4h method for a month and a half. I have just started paper trading it and finding out that after all that studying I still don't have a grasp on it like I thought. I will continue to study and post my trades for group analysis. I am one that has to actually do something to really understand it, just reading is not enough for me so again thank you for your mp3 and I will keep on learning.
  • #5,099
  • Edited 11:41am Jun 14, 2007 11:38am | Edited 11:41am
hello everyone. i have a question which i am sure has a very simple answer. What is "IT" as being discussed in previous posts for EURO. (please dont throw me out of this forum fo not knowing the answer ) thanks!!!
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,100
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:49am Jun 14, 2007 11:49am
[quote=kappa;1466804]Hi Tamkras,

I found 1.3270 when I switched to 0 GMT chart. The chart I posted is -2 GMT chart.

/quote]

my apologies, Kappa. I just edited my last post. I truly meant IB. Inside bottom formation is for support, and Inside Top (IT) is for resistance. I watch for price reversal at this important price levels. Hope I did not confuse and somebody should have corrected me.

BUT, please, keep in mind unless Phil decides to take them as part of MACD they are a guidance, not the critical MACD component. I use them in my trades.
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