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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,061
  • Edited 9:41am Jun 13, 2007 9:28am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting O'Zeeke
Thanks again, Pips, i always learn from you(so does my dog). You opened my eyes to this divergence concept, just look at the usd/chf. what do you think? (Trendlines may not be right)
Dear O'Zeeke's doggy...this analysis is provided by Pip's puppies re:swissie...so take the advice lightly...and don't let it bite you (hehe..my dog's don't bite)...

Be careful shorting swissie....It looks like price may be setting up for a retrace, but I want to see a close below .2412 to even think about a counter trade to the 21 (and I think .2372 will be support)...Price has bounced from a TL I've had on my chart at 1.2463...and it is heading down....

Personally, I'm letting this baby establish it's new ping-pong range (hehe)...I play a lot of ping pong w/this pair (and my last buy has given mucho pips!!)...(on the surface, I'd say, get ready to sell w/close below 1.2372...target 1.2338...if breaks below that level....1.2304....then the 89 and most likely, the former level of 1.2255....If I see a few failures of the upper TL on the hourly (but I need to see a top formed first), I might get aggressive and short w/tight stop.

Here's a copy of my chart....

Pips

PS Look for Buy opps at these levels. w/MACD conf. too..That's my plan..& I'm sticking to it, maybe
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,062
  • Jun 13, 2007 10:06am Jun 13, 2007 10:06am
Hi all,

Since December 2002, no daily candle ever closed above 122. If today's USD/JPY candle closes above 122, it might pave the way upward over 130 ? Or this spike is just a short living one ? What your take ?
  • #5,063
  • Jun 13, 2007 10:32am Jun 13, 2007 10:32am
Quoting pips4uandme
Dear O'Zeeke's doggy...
Thanks Pips,and Tito thanks you too
  • #5,064
  • Edited 11:23am Jun 13, 2007 10:59am | Edited 11:23am
Hello everyone. here is my outlook at the euro right now. Let me know what u guys think since i a sm still learning.

Round bottom. Higher low. support at 1.3265.Engulfing bull candle.Three candle morning star.
Buy at 1.3295.
SL 1.3255 -40( 10pips below the last support so hope fully will not be taken out.)
TP 1.3335 .+40. just below the 21MA.
R;R 1-1.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,065
  • Jun 13, 2007 12:45pm Jun 13, 2007 12:45pm
"Hi Phillip,
The Market Has Changed
Big changes are happening in the markets, you may have
noticed it. Systems that used to work are now having terrible
results. Methods that traders have been trading for years
can't turn a profit.
The trends seem shorter - right? I am getting more emails
than ever from traders that need help......."

From a well known trader.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Difficult Trading Lately.zip   841 KB | 1,934 downloads
  • #5,066
  • Jun 13, 2007 12:59pm Jun 13, 2007 12:59pm
Quoting BIL2205
Hello everyone. here is my outlook at the euro right now. Let me know what u guys think since i a sm still learning.

Round bottom. Higher low. support at 1.3265.Engulfing bull candle.Three candle morning star.
Buy at 1.3295.
SL 1.3255 -40( 10pips below the last support so hope fully will not be taken out.)
TP 1.3335 .+40. just below the 21MA.
R;R 1-1.
Hi Bil, i like your analysis, in addition on my chart shows a double bar low, higher close12:00) . I will be watching this one as well.
  • #5,067
  • Jun 13, 2007 1:11pm Jun 13, 2007 1:11pm
I really love how this thread is so professional and full of humble respectfull people who have one thing in mind, to learn this strategy in and out. I really think Phillip is amazing for giving so much back to the community of forex for nothing. Phillip in forex karma you have a lot of pips coming to you

Yeah Phillip, it does seem that we have some changes or a tide shift in the $ and the fundamentals of the trend at hand. There are many factors at hand that are affecting the currency markets reaction. The 10yr treasury yield has broke the 5.0 mark which attracts more foreign money to the US. We have the strong retail sales coming out this morning. I think the currency market usally tends to overreact to negative news i.e.our housing market here in the US. I think Inflation is still a concern in EZ and BOE, it will be interesting to see how and when they stop raising rates. Will be very interesting to see how this year pans out.

wow I kind of ranted on there sorry just my view and opinion, really appreciate all the hardwork that goes on in this forum.

Anybody else getting the feeling that we might have a little retrace in the loonie?
Many pips to all
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  • #5,068
  • Jun 13, 2007 1:44pm Jun 13, 2007 1:44pm
"Hi Phillip,
The Market Has Changed
Big changes are happening in the markets, you may have
noticed it. Systems that used to work are now having terrible
results. Methods that traders have been trading for years
can't turn a profit.
The trends seem shorter - right? I am getting more emails
than ever from traders that need help......."

From a well known trader.

Phillip, thank you for the last mp3. I have to say that I started some paper trading with your method the first week of june and so far all have been losses. I realize that I am very new to all this and that there is a learning curve involve, hence the demo account. The losses were very discouraging. But, after listening to the mp3, I feel somewhat better that it is a difficult time for even the most experienced traders. I will continue to learn and trade my demo account with your system.

I took a long on the eur/$ at 1.3294 after the analysis above s/l 1.3280 profit target of 20 pips as I cannot stay in front of the computer. I have not figured out how to post the image yet.

Thanks again Phillip
  • #5,069
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:13pm Jun 13, 2007 2:13pm
Phillip, thank you for the last mp3. I have to say that I started some paper trading with your method the first week of june and so far all have been losses. I realize that I am very new to all this and that there is a learning curve involve, hence the demo account. The losses were very discouraging. But, after listening to the mp3, I feel somewhat better that it is a difficult time for even the most experienced traders. I will continue to learn and trade my demo account with your system.

I took a long on the eur/$ at 1.3294 after the analysis above s/l 1.3280 profit target of 20 pips as I cannot stay in front of the computer. I have not figured out how to post the image yet.

Thanks again Phillip


[/quote]

lmark,

Well it looks like us new guys are seeing the same thing on the EUR. I'm long @ 1.3295. My stops and limits are a little bigger than yours, otherwise the same trade. We'll see. +15 so far.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

If you want to post a chart from MT4, right click on the screen you want, choose 'Save Picture As',and save it to My Documents or wherever you can find it easily. That saves it in a format and size that can be accomodated here, then when you post, you have an option that says 'Manage Attachments'. Hit the browse function in it, locate your saved chart, double click it, and bingo.

I also want to encourage you and any other newbies to stay with it here. I've been trading the FX for about 2 years with modest success (it's getting better) and I've never gotten as clear and concise training as we are receiving here. I've spent thousands of dollars on training and systems, some good, and some not, but none better than this, and certainly none cheaper!

Thanks again to Phillip and all who are involved here.


Richard
  • #5,070
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:25pm Jun 13, 2007 2:25pm
Thankyou again phillip for the informative mp3. here is a 4 hour chart of usd/jpy really zoomed out .the price right now is at the trend line drawn from 12th of march. Please correct me if i am wrong. the arrows pointout at the times it touched it or came close to it. Thankyou for teaching us the importance of trend lines. like someone here said. ( sorry cant remember who it was,) that i will take trend lines as guidance as opposed to confusion.
best regards to u always.
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TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,071
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:17pm Jun 13, 2007 3:17pm
Thanks Richard! Well it worked out, got my 20 pips and very happy with that. This is my first success with the 4h method. I believe it was a "good trade" but would like to hear from some more experienced people.
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  • #5,072
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:28pm Jun 13, 2007 3:28pm
Dear Phillip,
first of all I closed my deal before i listened to your mp3, because I felt bad about it, the price stucked for two days, there even were three Buddha tops. So you have nothing to do with it. And my SL would have been hit anyway before the price went up. And that would be much worse!!! I am at b/e and I am happy.
Please, don't take it so close, I have learnt so much from you! You are a wonderful person. Don't forget to give me your address, so I could send you a half of my first million . Pips already regrets that she refused to take hers.
Have a nice day/night.
  • #5,073
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:41pm Jun 13, 2007 3:41pm
congrats Imark on your first success. i am still new at this system and trust me i've have had more losses than wins. but thats part of the process. There are so many wonderful and helpful people in this forum and words cannot describe the generosity of Master Phillip that he has shared not only his method but his valuable time. keep it up.

O'zeeke thanks for giving me a positive response on my EUR/USD analysis. i am still in the trade. and the price seems to be going back forth bet 1.3305 to 1.3310. so a little novice nervousness. lets see how it turns out. maybe i will take a partial profit and let the rest run. keep pipping!!!
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,074
  • Jun 13, 2007 5:23pm Jun 13, 2007 5:23pm
Quoting kappa
Hi all,

Since December 2002, no daily candle ever closed above 122. If today's USD/JPY candle closes above 122, it might pave the way upward over 130 ? Or this spike is just a short living one ? What your take ?
Hi Kappa, it indeed looks like a break-out on the weekly towards new highs. Like many others I was stopped out today in another yen cross - the Market just reminded of its presence. I am not sure what caused the surge in yen crosses today but this one is out of the horizontal range and it keeps going in the upward one. Did I not listen to my thoughts on March 17th? No, I did not, being overwhelmed or blinded by price short ranges. For fear of trends being shorter? Probably. However, I do not want to wait another 3 months to figure it out - can it be the trend or not. I will just pass by this day and forget about dollar-yen until this monster either breaks the upper trendline or goes back to the lower. With today's touch of the upper boundary price run still seems to be contained. However, no aggressive reversal says the longs want more as 123.00 is near.
Attached Image
  • #5,075
  • Jun 13, 2007 7:52pm Jun 13, 2007 7:52pm
As an afterthought on today's loss that I took with a yen cross I had a look at historical price action of the dollar-yen in a similar situation like the one today, i.e. ranging in an upward channel. What else can we refer to rather than history? I enclose, probably, something similar which dates back to autumn last year. The price had similar 3 tops - A, B and C. It then took all of them and broke the upper channel boundary. It is very clear that price stayed above the channel for 1 day and then slipped below it again.

The story then developed on the second chart with the disastreous outcome. While it is true that historic price patterns does not guarantee the same in the future I will be cautious with the breakout to the upside - above 123.00, i.e. - if it happens today or tomorrow.
Attached Image
  • #5,076
  • Jun 13, 2007 8:56pm Jun 13, 2007 8:56pm
Quoting tamkras
Hi Kappa, it indeed looks like a break-out on the weekly towards new highs. Like many others I was stopped out today in another yen cross - the Market just reminded of its presence. I am not sure what caused the surge in yen crosses today but this one is out of the horizontal range and it keeps going in the upward one. Did I not listen to my thoughts on March 17th? No, I did not, being overwhelmed or blinded by price short ranges. For fear of trends being shorter? Probably. However, I do not want to wait another 3 months to figure it out - can it be the trend or not. I will just pass by this day and forget about dollar-yen until this monster either breaks the upper trendline or goes back to the lower. With today's touch of the upper boundary price run still seems to be contained. However, no aggressive reversal says the longs want more as 123.00 is near.
hi tamkras,i totally agreed that dollar/yen is a monster,me too was being hit hard by this monster yesterday!! my charts said that it should go south but it went north??? what make it go north??
  • #5,077
  • Jun 13, 2007 10:04pm Jun 13, 2007 10:04pm
Quoting fxnewbie 71
hi tamkras,i totally agreed that dollar/yen is a monster,me too was being hit hard by this monster yesterday!! my charts said that it should go south but it went north??? what make it go north??
it might be just an unlucky number - June 13. Why did it happen on Wednesday? I have no idea. I looked at the Dow, yes it was almost flat today but then bang! Looks like today's positive news from the US (Retail Sales up beating expectations) had no impact on euro at all as its dollar counterpart. What apparently happened is that the smart money (oxymoron) took almost half a day to realize that more sales = more inventory orders also propelled by a cheap dollar = expectations of higher stock earnings. So, the money moved again overseas to borrow the hammered yen (will they ever stop printing it?) and buy stocks. Dow surged in the afternoon hours. I saw this only after the fact. Dollar-yen will probably take out 123.00 today (but do not buy rumours!) and I will want to see if it builds value beyond that mark, i.e. staying there, at least for 2 days.
  • #5,078
  • Jun 13, 2007 10:48pm Jun 13, 2007 10:48pm
Quoting tamkras
it might be just an unlucky number - June 13. Why did it happen on Wednesday? I have no idea. I looked at the Dow, yes it was almost flat today but then bang! Looks like today's positive news from the US (Retail Sales up beating expectations) had no impact on euro at all as its dollar counterpart. What apparently happened is that the smart money (oxymoron) took almost half a day to realize that more sales = more inventory orders also propelled by a cheap dollar = expectations of higher stock earnings. So, the money moved again overseas to borrow the hammered yen (will they ever stop printing it?) and buy stocks. Dow surged in the afternoon hours. I saw this only after the fact. Dollar-yen will probably take out 123.00 today (but do not buy rumours!) and I will want to see if it builds value beyond that mark, i.e. staying there, at least for 2 days.
i am still licking my wound,sob...when wil this carry trade ever stop??? all my analysis/charts failed me badly!!
  • #5,079
  • Jun 14, 2007 1:36am Jun 14, 2007 1:36am
Hi Tamkras,

Yes, this break-out can be a false one as you found an example from last year's chart. Your methodology to dig in the past seeking similar evidences certainly is the one of fx scientists !!!

Although I have nothing more to add to your observation, I just inform you that today's intraday strategy recommended by a well known Japanese FX analyst is to buy at 122.15 area. TP 122.85 area, sl 121.95.

Thank you for your continuos help.
  • #5,080
  • Jun 14, 2007 2:27am Jun 14, 2007 2:27am
Quoting fxnewbie 71
hi tamkras,i totally agreed that dollar/yen is a monster,me too was being hit hard by this monster yesterday!! my charts said that it should go south but it went north??? what make it go north??
Bloomberg news reported today that $1 Billion in 6 month options on the yen were at 127. This could be the culprit from fundamentals land.
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