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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #2,321
  • Jun 11, 2007 2:09am Jun 11, 2007 2:09am
Jese I PMed you
  • #2,322
  • Jun 11, 2007 9:34am Jun 11, 2007 9:34am
RyeCatcher,

Be careful you could catch a trade or two with that kind of activity... And if you find that you have pips then you should go see a bank manager as quickly as possible with them....... Just remember if you are going to trade .....then please please....use a Stop Loss for protection.....

Quoting Ryecatcher
you caught me with rsi down...

and my ma up ...

sorry...

have a good week

Rye
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #2,323
  • Jun 11, 2007 11:13am Jun 11, 2007 11:13am
ohhh!!!!


your good....


but i'd rather withdraw those pips before i lose interest....

cheers

Rye
  • #2,324
  • Jun 11, 2007 2:24pm Jun 11, 2007 2:24pm
Hi to all you helpful people out there and thanks for all your help.


I’ve fallen in love with both the Fozzy Method and the Mouteki (Demark) Method and would like your comments on the system I am trying to implement for myself based on combining both methods. Here is how it should work:

  1. A trendline breakout is spotted according to according to the Demark rules (these are very similar to the Mouteki method) but I do recommend reading Tom Demark’s book. I use an indicator to help with this.
  2. The trade is only entered if a Fozzy cross has occurred in the last 2 days.

That’s it! I like to keep things simple. I am not sure if I am writing this post in the correct thread, I apologise if so.

I only have access to the computer in the evenings and first thing in the morning because of work so I might be slow in responding to your comments.

Now please be patient with me I will try to attach some charts to show my method! Any comments on how to improve the chart quality?

Regards

Madog

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart1.jpg Size: 66 KB
  • #2,325
  • Jun 11, 2007 2:31pm Jun 11, 2007 2:31pm
Here's another setup:

Regards


Madog
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart2.jpg Size: 75 KB
  • #2,326
  • Jun 11, 2007 2:36pm Jun 11, 2007 2:36pm
Hello Madog and welcome to Fozzy trading.........

I have experimented briefly with this combination, attaching the Demark Trend Line indicator to my Fozzy charts. At a quick glance, this setup looked like it would have promise; I saw good results. However, I have not had the time to backtest this, something that is essential! Also, backtesting would be cumbersome because of having to determine where the DTLs would be in history. I can see this backtest requiring a lot of time; unless someone has a suggestion on how to do this simply and quickly.

Quoting Madog
Hi to all you helpful people out there and thanks for all your help.


I’ve fallen in love with both the Fozzy Method and the Mouteki (Demark) Method and would like your comments on the system I am trying to implement for myself based on combining both methods. Here is how it should work:

  1. A trendline breakout is spotted according to according to the Demark rules (these are very similar to the Mouteki method) but I do recommend reading Tom Demark’s book. I use an indicator to help with this.
  2. The trade is only entered if a Fozzy cross has occurred in the last 2 days.

That’s it! I like to keep things simple. I am not sure if I am writing this post in the correct thread, I apologise if so.

I only have access to the computer in the evenings and first thing in the morning because of work so I might be slow in responding to your comments.

Now please be patient with me I will try to attach some charts to show my method! Any comments on how to improve the chart quality?

Regards

Madog

  • #2,327
  • Jun 11, 2007 2:38pm Jun 11, 2007 2:38pm
Good idea mate...

If you go back to post 2264, page 151 you'll see we're singing of the same hymn sheet (almost).....

read the attached pdf, because if you like your setup ,i think you might appreciate the possible add-ons ...

let me know what you think

Rye
Attached Image
  • #2,328
  • Jun 11, 2007 2:55pm Jun 11, 2007 2:55pm
the whole backtesting in history was the first stumbling block............

But' i think this has some mileage...

now i know that fozzy is a daily system, but as you use it on 4hr, it could prove really useful for getting an entry with out the drawdowns( well you know what i mean) .

Its only multi time frame entry and not the reinvention of the wheel , however if we could find someone(far more intelligent than i)to sort the trend line ind for backtesting, i would gladly ( well maybe not gladly) carry out the leg work and post some results

As a daily system, i haven't been trading the cross until all 3 tf's are in my favour(d1,4hr,1hr entry) and it works a charm...

Also for me ,it removes that sense of the unknown(ish) as to where price will go first.

Several of my trades that were carried out prior to this 'system' ,would never have even been entered with this further information (and yes i was stopped out on all of them..oops)

whadda ya think???

Rye
  • #2,329
  • Jun 11, 2007 8:07pm Jun 11, 2007 8:07pm
My dear friend Rye..............

Couple of things:

First, I am committed to finishing and posting a list of trades as promised to JoshDance on the one year backtest of the EUR/USD. After that, who knows. My time is limited but also some of it is committed to discussing and working with Fozzy trading.

Second: If the 3tf system that you have developed for your trading "works like a charm", why mess with it? I like Fozzy trading with the Daily and 4 hour charts. Much of what I post is with the goal of helping newbies get started and/or provide some additional direction to those who may not yet be comfortable with this method..............or profitable enough. I want to encourage traders to start simple and then develop their own style of Fozzy trading that works for them.

And finally, I like the idea of some type of backtesting with DTLs, but I am at a loss as to how thus could be done without eating up an inordinate amount of time.

Suggestions traders?

But, as a whole, I'm in your corner! Let's get some more feedback on this from others..............

Quoting Ryecatcher
the whole backtesting in history was the first stumbling block............

But' i think this has some mileage...

now i know that fozzy is a daily system, but as you use it on 4hr, it could prove really useful for getting an entry with out the drawdowns( well you know what i mean) .

Its only multi time frame entry and not the reinvention of the wheel , however if we could find someone(far more intelligent than i)to sort the trend line ind for backtesting, i would gladly ( well maybe not gladly) carry out the leg work and post some results

As a daily system, i haven't been trading the cross until all 3 tf's are in my favour(d1,4hr,1hr entry) and it works a charm...

Also for me ,it removes that sense of the unknown(ish) as to where price will go first.

Several of my trades that were carried out prior to this 'system' ,would never have even been entered with this further information (and yes i was stopped out on all of them..oops)

whadda ya think???

Rye
  • #2,330
  • Jun 11, 2007 9:14pm Jun 11, 2007 9:14pm
Thanks for your comments, I apreciate BB how difficult it would be to backtest this idea because of the DTL's. I suppose manual forward testing is the obvious answer unless someone has any suggestions.

Thanks Ryecatcher for your remarks, I have already seen your post and am using the Heiken Ashi indicator as a last check before trading on my Demo Account.

I will try to forward test this and post the results on a weekly basis if this might help.

Because of work I tend to place pending orders above/below the trendline if there has been a Fozzy Cross. At least with this idea you don't miss out on the start of the breakout

Here's another breakout

Regards

Madog
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart3.jpg Size: 79 KB
  • #2,331
  • Jun 12, 2007 5:40am Jun 12, 2007 5:40am
Madog...............nice comments.

I welcome any and all testing (back and/or forward) and a posting of the results; so please share with us. There still may be a way to do this, I just to spend some time thinking about it after I finish other on-going projects.

Quoting Madog
Thanks for your comments, I apreciate BB how difficult it would be to backtest this idea because of the DTL's. I suppose manual forward testing is the obvious answer unless someone has any suggestions.

Thanks Ryecatcher for your remarks, I have already seen your post and am using the Heiken Ashi indicator as a last check before trading on my Demo Account.

I will try to forward test this and post the results on a weekly basis if this might help.

Because of work I tend to place pending orders above/below the trendline if there has been a Fozzy Cross. At least with this idea you don't miss out on the start of the breakout

Here's another breakout

Regards

Madog
  • #2,332
  • Edited Jun 13, 2007 6:59am Jun 12, 2007 10:00am | Edited Jun 13, 2007 6:59am
As promised, I have prepared a list showing the "possible" trades that correspond with the information in my post #2245. These trades are in harmony with my previous statement in that post:

"Look back for one year at the EUR/USD. Now remember I use FXDD and the AO_FozzySignalALL to get my attention, but I always confirm a "clean" cross, no bounces. AND NO OTHER INDICATORS! RSI/MA cross only!"

"However, it is possible to Fozzy trade without doing anything other than entering the trades and waiting for them to close, either at T/P or S/L. In my example, I suggested moving the second lot to B/E when the first T/P is reached. BUT if a trader made the choice NOT to do this, but simply let all of these trades run-out, the net result in my example would be 2840 pips. Thats one trade a week on average, netting 55 pips per week on one currency pair."

All trades were taken in harmony with the above statements. To be as objective as possible, I looked very closely at all trades and eliminated some that could be viewed as "marginal" according to my definition of a "clean" cross. This reduced the number of winners from 36 to 30 and increased the losers from 19 to 20. The net pips gained is less but still very good.


Allowing all trades to close at either T/P or S/L would produce a net pip gain of 2080.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_usd_xls.jpg Size: 75 KB
  • #2,333
  • Jun 12, 2007 10:21am Jun 12, 2007 10:21am
Quoting BeachBum
-800 1800 2200

Total 3200
BB, thanks for sharing your hard work on this. The results are very impressive. However, shouldn't the losses be -1600 since you are losing -40 on 2 lots? It's still good results!
  • #2,334
  • Jun 12, 2007 10:31am Jun 12, 2007 10:31am
Al...............actually I have included that value in the total of 2080 at the end of my post.

What I need to do is explain that if a trader made single lot trades the results would be 1800 gained minus 800 loss for a net gain of 1000 pips.

Managed two lot trades would be 4000 gained minus 1600 loss for a net gain of 2400 pips. And simply allowing the trades to close without managing would yield 2080 pips.

Thanks for pointing out the need for clarification!


Quoting Al_Have1
BB, thanks for sharing your hard work on this. The results are very impressive. However, shouldn't the losses be -1600 since you are losing -40 on 2 lots? It's still good results!
  • #2,335
  • Jun 12, 2007 12:00pm Jun 12, 2007 12:00pm
shouldnt there be a fozzy order of merit for this guy?


Quoting BeachBum
Al...............actually I have included that value in the total of 2080 at the end of my post.

What I need to do is explain that if a trader made single lot trades the results would be 1800 gained minus 800 loss for a net gain of 1000 pips.

Managed two lot trades would be 4000 gained minus 1600 loss for a net gain of 2400 pips. And simply allowing the trades to close without managing would yield 2080 pips.

Thanks for pointing out the need for clarification!
  • #2,336
  • Jun 12, 2007 12:03pm Jun 12, 2007 12:03pm
Quoting coolshades
shouldnt there be a fozzy order of merit for this guy?

Absolutely!
  • #2,337
  • Jun 12, 2007 12:10pm Jun 12, 2007 12:10pm
and yes, before anyone goes there, i have bagged his book deal rights, movie deal rights, podcast, videocast rights, and i am speaking to his agent on projecting his silhouette on the moon..

alas his speaking rights were booked by an earlier poster..


Quoting Cmartin371
Absolutely!
  • #2,338
  • Jun 12, 2007 1:01pm Jun 12, 2007 1:01pm
cool and cmartin..............

If you guys think the praise will get me to do this same excercise for every currency pair, please read the above headline...............

Everybody needs to do their own homework.....................
  • #2,339
  • Jun 12, 2007 1:01pm Jun 12, 2007 1:01pm
Quoting BeachBum
Al...............actually I have included that value in the total of 2080 at the end of my post.

What I need to do is explain that if a trader made single lot trades the results would be 1800 gained minus 800 loss for a net gain of 1000 pips.

Managed two lot trades would be 4000 gained minus 1600 loss for a net gain of 2400 pips. And simply allowing the trades to close without managing would yield 2080 pips.

Thanks for pointing out the need for clarification!

Beach,

I have been and out of here...and you know it. But I have to say something. I have to take off my hat and congratulate you for the incredible effort that you put into this thread. These results are an "acid test" for this method (using only one lot an letting them close at stop or at target 1) and the definite proof that it works.
Your consistency, the rigorous way in which you test your hypothesis (the 4 hr fozzy), the way in which you support newbies, and skeptics and flip-floppers (include me in that shameful category) is laudable.

I do not know exactly where i want to go with this post. But Beach Bum... thank you for keeping this thing going.
  • #2,340
  • Jun 12, 2007 1:02pm Jun 12, 2007 1:02pm
Quoting BeachBum
cool and cmartin..............

If you guys think the praise will get me to do this same excercise for every currency pair, please read the above headline...............

Everybody needs to do their own homework.....................


Awwwww...just when i was about to ask for the backtest on 13 additional pairs!!!!!!!!
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