EURUSD Momentum Swing Trading

■ Trade #8 Daily update.

Finally we got something significant today and in the right direction for me, at least for now.
One good candle with a bit of follow-through.

Still, the week is full of important economic numbers that can put everything upside down which means that I have to remain alert on any direction change showing some strength and not hesitate to flip my position if needed.

One day at a time...

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"It's never too late to be what you might have been." -George Eliot

■ Trade #8 Final update.

As feared, things went upside down for this trade and after having a good profit, two bearish candles ruined it.

I have no regrets, it finished in a small 2% loss but my execution was good and when momentum turns so fast and strong there is nothing you can do except follow it when your rules agree, that's what I did entering new trade #9.

We are again testing the lower level of the daily bearish flag. From there a new rebound will ruin my new trade, on the contrary, a break of the flag could see a very large move downwards.

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"If you want to make your dreams come true, the first thing you have to do is wake up." -J.M. Power

Congratulations on the new forum, I'll be following...

■ Trade #9 Initial update.

Another great day for nothing that almost ended where it began.

The momentum is slightly positive on H4 but negative on daily so it's too early to conclude anything at this moment, maybe tomorrow...

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"The road to success is always under construction." -Lily Tomlin

■ Trade #9 Final update.

Well this one didn't even last for a day.

Momentum was confirmed positive after a follow through candle.
After closing the trade I entered it again to give it a chance thinking it was going to reverse but not and finally entered long trade #10

The sooner we get out of this flag, the better as we cannot develop full trends in this space.

I also kept the same lot size in the hope to recover recent losses so my risk is actually a bit higher but if this one fails again I will go back to normal lot size calculation, let's see...

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■ Trade #10 Initial update.

This one got a boost thanks to bad US labor numbers. Well from time to time is also OK to have some luck on your side.

We closed slightly above the daily bearish channel and I really would like to get away from it, next week maybe...

Oh H4, I consider the whole move from the lower side of the channel up to where we are now as a single push. This means that if a new bull trend emerges from this move it could be promising and so would be the profits for this trade.

But as usual, there is always another side to the game. Today's close is very near of the upper level and if we get back into the channel again, we could see the same kind of moves we saw these past days.

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"Life is what we make it and how we make it – whether we realize it or not." –Napoleon Hill

■ Trade #10 Daily update.

The expected and inevitable correction came today but the resulting momentum is still positive as the correction is small and ordered. This, of course, is valid for today, tomorrow if that continues with additional strength the picture could look different again as we are also back into the daily bearish flag.

Trade profits would be good already printing 40% with this initial impulse given by the labor numbers but I neither trade impulses nor news but full trends instead so for now the plan is to give the trade all the space it needs to eventually develop.

Notable event, the 100 SMA started climbing since the middle of the flag...

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"Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood." -Ralph Waldo Emerson

■ Trade #10 Daily update.

The closing day bar is bringing us back near 1.07 and turning momentum slightly positive but we need some follow through and a new high to eventually declare a new trend and definitely get out of this flag.

I think that we should be settled by the end of the week.

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“Never bend your head. Always hold it high. Look the world straight in the eye.” -Helen Keller

■ Trade #10 Daily update.

We corrected a bit more after yesterday close but the move stopped at previous high with 1.0664 acting as support.

Then, today we got a single bar covering the precedent correction meaning that momentum is clearly positive. We are now back above yesterday highs and day is showing positive momentum as well.

Two days to terminate the week and If the trend persists, it will turn positive as well meaning that next week could finally bring us outside of this bearish flag.

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"I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have." -Thomas Jefferson

■ Trade #10 Daily update.

This time we got just the contrary of yesterday and are again closing at support very near of 1.0664 but not making a new low yet.

It looks like we don't know where to go, the momentum is again negative on H4 but positive on day. If we manage to finish the week in the upper half of the bearish flag, that would print a well contained correction on the weekly where the momentum is right now mostly neutral which could announce a bullish week ahead.

The trade remains positive as for now, the SMA100 is above the BE point and the lower level of the flag should touch BE late Friday. Patience is the name of the game until we are away from this zone.

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“I love her, and that’s the beginning and end of everything.” -F. Scott Fitzgerald

■ Trade #10 Daily update.

Another great day of indecision.

While week and day have still a positive momentum, the H4 turned slightly negative even with a positive day.

It looks like it wants to climb but it's missing a catalyst to do so like the NFP did last week, maybe next week inflation numbers could do the job...

The correction is for now a simple zigzag as no new low was made yesterday but it could quickly turn in something more complex if not a full featured correction trend. The question is if, whatever it is, will the bulls manage to contain it before we turn definitively bullish, or in other words, are they accumulating ?

In the meantime, the trade still shows 27% profit so it's far from dead and I have not seen a clear bearish momentum to force me to close it and enter short.

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“You can’t blame gravity for falling in love.” -Albert Einstein

■ Trade #10 Daily update.

Not much to add since last update, we remain in the middle of nowhere in this bearish flag waiting for some motivation to go out.

Normally this formation is bearish but we got already 2 tentatives to break it to the downside that failed and it comes after a quite long trend down so my bias is quite neutral. Any new position taken now would be at risk so better to keep what I have and wait for the momentum to eventually show a new path.

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“In the end, it’s not the years in your life that count. It’s the life in your years.” -Abraham Lincoln

■ Trade #10 Daily update.

Finally I got what I needed and was expecting, we are now out of this flag and there are chances that this is only the first leg of the Christmas rally.

It was the perfect momentum push as I define it, to know, unidirectional price action with a strong finish of the H4 bar in which the inflation numbers where published and a follow through bar of the same magnitude.

The trade shows now a more colorful profit of 98% but my head remains cold. It's good to be on the right side when a movement begins but it's better to hold and let profit runs at least until I see what kind of trend, if any, develops and guess where could be its end, until then I will just sit back, relax, study and watch profits growing.

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"Dreaming, after all, is a form of planning." -Gloria Steinem

■ Trade #10 Daily update.

We are now correcting but the correction is well contained for now, showing only quite small bars.
Normal stuff after such a big push.

I expect the trend to develop in the near future, if that comes true and I do well, I should have my explorer green by the end of the year.
Patience is the name of the game again.

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"The only impossible journey is the one you never begin." -Tony Robbins

■ Trade #10 Final update.

After looking again at the whole picture and remembering post #46, where I comment the move from the lower lever of the channel as a first push, I see now the whole movement to get out of that channel as complete. This doesn't mean that there is no more upside but only that my bet is that some correction should take place, that's why I decided to book the profits of the trade and enter short.

It's one of those moments where the momentum makes a pause before deciding if it wants to correct or continue...

The trade ended with +88% which is the best score so far since I started and my win ratio climbs to 60% with it.
Let's see if I manage to have the account green by the end of the year.

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"You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." -Mae West

■ Erratic trade #11 .

I deviated from my fundamentals and was anticipating a correction while in fact the momentum was still positive and so it remained making new highs.

Finally I got my loss of 21% and entered trade #12 but not at a good level and I know it but it's still possible of making new highs...

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“Inspiration comes from within yourself. One has to be positive. When you’re positive, good things happen.” —Deep Roy

■ Trade #12 Initial update.

If you do the work and analyze your errors you should normally get out with more knowledge to avoid repeating them in the future.
Trade #11 forced me to spend my weekend on that and have now more tools for trading. 2024 will be an interesting year.

I didn't know it when I entered trade #12 but I know it now, there is still room for this trend to grow after some retracement takes place.
I will let the momentum guide me as usual and see, for now the strength is clearly to the upside.

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"Not how long, but how well you have lived is the main thing." -Seneca

■ Trade #12 Final update.

Finally closed that late one with a small profit of 8+% but all fine as I knew I was late with that one.

The momentum is clearly to the downside so I Initiated short trade #13 for what I predict should be only a correction of the current trend.
My most perfect scenario is another rally after this correction certainly to finish the year which should be trade #14

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"The way to get started is to quit talking and begin doing." -Walt Disney

■ Trade #13 Final update.

I was expecting a more pronounced correction but I'm seeing good resistance to the downside and the momentum turning slightly positive again.
So decided to close for a tiny profit of 1.8%

I'm in a bit early per my standards as I should let the trade die before entering the other direction but for me this trend has more legs up and I don't want to be in too late, so I'm long again with trade #14

I see at least a new high before year's end but the possibility to correct a bit more before that exists also...

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"Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up." -Thomas A. Edison