Support and Resistance, Swing / Long term trading | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trading Swing by Swing 39 replies

Swing-trading/long term journal 5 replies

Swing Trading with Major Support/Resistance 9 replies

Swing highs and swing lows 3 replies

swing high/swing low indicator and volume tic history 13 replies

Attachments: Support and Resistance, Swing / Long term trading
Exit Attachments

Support and Resistance, Swing / Long term trading

  • #21
  • Nov 5, 2023 5:48pm Nov 5, 2023 5:48pm
Quoting TheCardinal
EURUSD. This is an interesting one. For those of you that followed my previous thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...hnicals?page=3) I took a long right here at support (yellow circle), but unfortunately got stopped out BE before the one as we can see {image} Shit like that happens. GBPAUD (previous chart) might do the same thing right now, stalling at support, giving us a weak rally to shake those weak long, to then shoot up. I was obviously long on EURUSD because Monthly-Weekly support,...
EURUSD, Pending order:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 52 KB


See "quoted" post for more details as to why I placed a pending from the Monthly and Weekly perspective
  • #22
  • Nov 5, 2023 5:50pm Nov 5, 2023 5:50pm
Quoting TheCardinal
GBPCHF. I was expecting a reaction from the break&retest on the weekly. We might still get it by the close, who knows. If the Weekly closes with a Pinbar (doubt it), I will look to sell next week. If we close above the KL, I will place a pending order just like so: {image} If we pullback just before we reach my pending, I will cancel my order. A lot of CHF pairs are near Weekly resistance (AUDCHF, EURCHF, NZDCHF). An ideal situation is the following: GBPCHF closes above the KL and during the next week, reaches my pending order at the same time as...
GBPCHF, Pending order:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 43 KB


See "quoted" post for more details as to why I placed a pending from the Monthly and Weekly perspective
  • #23
  • Nov 5, 2023 5:59pm Nov 5, 2023 5:59pm
Quoting TheCardinal
AUDCAD. I've been following this one closely since we are at Monthly and Weekly support printing bullish PB {image} {image} Now that we have a break of the previous structure, I will try to get involved with a retracement (if next week gives me one) {image} The 50% retracement seems like a nice place to enter (for now). It aligns well with a break&retest of structure. I'll keep you guys updated
AUDCAD, Pending order unless we break the recent high at 0.8910.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 49 KB


Splitting my risk between these 2 entries. I dont know where price will reverse, im betting on the 50% break&retest as previously mentioned and the 78% that is close to the origin of the bullish move. I dont want to have an order at the 50% retracement with a 200 pips SL. For me, its not worth it on this pair. Its not as volatile as GBPJPY for example.
  • #24
  • Nov 5, 2023 6:01pm Nov 5, 2023 6:01pm
Will closely monitor USDSGD (for a long opportunity) and USDJPY (for a short opportunity)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 48 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 34 KB


At this point in time, USDJPY short is quite risky. I need more than just a Weekly Pinbar to consider the trade. I need a change of order flow at least on the Daily, so a break of my blue box will give me just that. THEN I will consider shorting the pair.

Thats all for now
  • #25
  • Nov 6, 2023 1:22am Nov 6, 2023 1:22am
USDSGD Unable to break 1.3500.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 12 KB
  • #26
  • Nov 6, 2023 7:36am Nov 6, 2023 7:36am
Quoting Inthebox
bearish view next week is it ok h4 for trade entry? {image}
will see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 11 KB
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #27
  • Nov 6, 2023 7:58am Nov 6, 2023 7:58am
Quoting mallee
USDSGD Unable to break 1.3500. {image}
That seems to be very low timeframe, like the H1 or below. I dont trade that and I dont analyze on those timeframes, specially since this is swing&long term trading.

From my perspective, the 1.35 is not significant.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 56 KB

Monthly is making higher highs and higher lows. Thats all that matters for me.
  • #28
  • Nov 6, 2023 8:00am Nov 6, 2023 8:00am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} will see {image}
So tell me, whats the reasoning behind this trade Inthebox?
  • #29
  • Nov 6, 2023 8:17am Nov 6, 2023 8:17am
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} So tell me, whats the reasoning behind this trade Inthebox?
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post14643136

support to resistant flip around fib 50/62. SL above trend line and within supply zone.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #30
  • Nov 6, 2023 8:20am Nov 6, 2023 8:20am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post14643136 support to resistant flip around fib 50/62. SL above trend line and within supply zone.
All based on the Daily-H4?
  • #31
  • Nov 6, 2023 8:33am Nov 6, 2023 8:33am
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} All based on the Daily-H4?
based on w1 d1 h4
expected the drop from w1 engulf sell to w1 engulf buy.
in this case i take the d1 engulf buy as TP.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 15 KB
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #32
  • Nov 6, 2023 10:33am Nov 6, 2023 10:33am
A quick note about Flow and why it is important to have an objective bias (not being attached to it), but having a way to identify the path of least resistance.

See this Monthly individual candle? Bearish Engulfing. Strong candle. Specially on the Monthly. This candle happened in September, so October bias could be bearish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 32 KB


But where is it? No where. Im sure on lower timeframes, it is somewhere and you would have MULTIPLE places where to enter JUST based on PA alone. No indicators no nothing. Here is how it looks on the Daily (still a high time frame for some traders). Red box is the month of October

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 36 KB


Breaks&retest, high of a "supply" zone, another Break&retest, high of a "supply" zone. Nothing really worked. You could argue one of them worked, but it still ended up breaking to the upside. What happened?

Well, we just came off a MONTHLY support (green box) and Monthly was only retracing back down before continuing up. Monthly flow never changed. Weekly flow never changed either. Only Daily.

We had 4 places to short, one of them somewhat worked, but for intra day trades. Nothing long term. No long lasting trades.

Now imagine if we were to add fibs and indicators and Moving averages and RSi and this, and that. You can litteraly have a reason to short every single trade ALL the way during that up move, all the way to bankruptcy...

Monthly was up. Bearish Engulf on the Monthly? Where is it happening? No where? Who cares. Pay attention when it happens at the edge. Stop going against the flow.
  • #33
  • Edited 9:16pm Nov 6, 2023 10:38am | Edited 9:16pm
Another interesting case study. It takes litterally 10sec to do. Open a chart, any chart. Go to the Weekly TF. Click on the horizontal line tool, close your eyes, move your mouse/trackpad up and down and click while still having your eyes closed. Now open your eyes.

Im 100% SURE you will find places where your horizontal line, this so called "key level" reacted and you could have shorted or go long and make good money. Crazy right? Its easy to draw a line on the chart and to do hindsight trading. Seeing how after the fact it worked at certain places. But you are ignoring all the times it didnt work. Anything and everything works. Thats why you need a systematic way to draw them.

In my previous post, I talked about indicators. Im not bashing them, im not against them. Litteraly anything works. You just have to make it work. I dont believe in trading something that fits your "personality". Im for "trading what fits your beliefs about the markets". If I would trade according to my personality, I would have probably ended up on the m1 chart (minute). But since it didnt make any sense to me, I would have second guessed every single trade. I would have FOMO, break my rules, doubts every trade, etc.

Dont trade according to your personality. Trade your beliefs about the market. At the end of the day, scalper can make money, position trader can make money, price action trader can make money, indicators guys can make money.

Trade what makes sense to you and you will be less likely to break your rules and second guess yourself.
  • #34
  • Nov 6, 2023 10:41am Nov 6, 2023 10:41am
Quoting TheCardinal
Another interesting case study. It takes litterally 10sec to do. Open a chart, any chart. Go to the Weekly TF. Click on the horizontal line tool, close your eyes, move your mouse/trackpad up and down and click while still having your eyes closed. Now open your eyes. Im 100% SURE you will find places where your horizontal line, this so called "key level" reacted and you could have shorted or go long and make good money. Crazy right? Its easy to draw a line on the chart and to do hindsight trading. Seeing how after the fact it worked at certain places....
In your experience, what are some key principles or beliefs about the market that have helped you become a successful trader, and how did you come to adopt those principles or beliefs?
  • #35
  • Edited Nov 7, 2023 8:56am Nov 6, 2023 12:19pm | Edited Nov 7, 2023 8:56am
Quoting vandorUA
{quote} In your experience, what are some key principles or beliefs about the market that have helped you become a successful trader, and how did you come to adopt those principles or beliefs?
My beliefs are not complicated.

1. Macro events (economic and politic) can create one sided movements that technicals wont stop. Think of EURUSD during the Ukraine-Russia war (politics), think BOJ negative monetary policies against all other majors (economics). Why is the Yen so weak and all the pairs destroying it? No matter what are the technicals level that you have against the Yen, it will get moved out of the way until the BOJ changes its monetary policy. We are not taking about the economic calendar here but BIG, MACRO events.

2. The most followed strategy by retail traders is NOT trend following but counter-trend trading. Traders LOVE to short during an uptrend and buy during a downtrend.

3. Reversals usually happens at Monthly zones and MAJOR reversals usually happens at Monthly zone with a macro news.

4. The Daily doesnt give any bias and is meaningless in terms of long term mvts/following the flow/path of least resistance. It wont be identified on the Daily, but Monthly and Weekly.

5. You can make the markets & your system as simple as you want or as complicated as you want. All depends on what you think works. If you need 4 confirmations before entering, you made it complicated, but thats what YOU need, so trade as such. I've realized that if I put more than 5 lines on my chart, I dont trade well. I dont like my charts, I get easily distracted from what price is doing.

6. Price action with support & resistance is all you need. Candles formations or patterns are useless unless they happen at a Key zone. A weekly pinbar is useless for me unless it happens at resistance or support.

7. This is a losers game. Everybody loses. If you dont add to your winners, you will end up losing also.

8. You dont necessarily need confirmation to enter the markets. A good support is a good support, regardless if there is a pinbar or not, regardless if there is a moving average or an RSI divergence. If big whales find the price interesting, they will buy even if YOUR analysis/price action/indicators said otherwise. If they buy, its going up.

Thats some of the beliefs I have. The most important ones.
  • #36
  • Nov 6, 2023 12:26pm Nov 6, 2023 12:26pm
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote}3. Reversals usually happens at Monthly zones and MAJOR reversals usually happens at Monthly zone with a macro news.
how do you see the pivot point?
  • #37
  • Nov 6, 2023 1:41pm Nov 6, 2023 1:41pm
Quoting vandorUA
{quote} how do you see the pivot point?
When you have an origin of an impulse move that breaks previous structure on a MAJOR timeframe (like the Monthly or the Weekly).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 38 KB


It doesnt mean it will reverse. But when we talk about a "high probability zone", it cant be on the H4 or H1 or even the Daily (unless you scalp). The long lasting moves happen on the Monthly. If you want to day trade or scalp, no problem, but there are no "high probability long term reversals zones" on those time frames IMHO.
  • #38
  • Nov 6, 2023 4:07pm Nov 6, 2023 4:07pm
for scalping, what do you recommend?
  • #39
  • Nov 6, 2023 8:53pm Nov 6, 2023 8:53pm
Quoting vandorUA
for scalping, what do you recommend?
What do I recommend? What do you mean? What pairs to trade? What time frame? Regardless of your answer, I do not scalp, it is not my expertise, therefore I probably dont have the answers your are looking for.
  • #40
  • Nov 7, 2023 1:25am Nov 7, 2023 1:25am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} based on w1 d1 h4 expected the drop from w1 engulf sell to w1 engulf buy. in this case i take the d1 engulf buy as TP. {image} {image}
so far no momentum to break support.
i put trade to BE and will see which side will london open push to.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 14 KB
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
0 traders viewing now