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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,001
  • Edited 5:33am Jun 12, 2007 5:32am | Edited 5:33am
Hi all,

I'm a major lurker here a know I should post more, but just wanted to say -

Pips - Thanks for extra info on planning a trade
Jland - Great question because I think the same. When do you delete?

Phillip - Congratulations on 5000 posts! Excellent stuff. Did you ever think it'd grow this big?
Hope your family are all getting better.

Cheers
Enter Signature
  • #5,002
  • Jun 12, 2007 5:33am Jun 12, 2007 5:33am
Quoting SynWind
wow.. over 300+ messages on this thread already.
can some on summaries any changes to the post 1 message method??

thanks
Oh! I got the #5000 post. Don't I get a special prize for this? LOL!
  • #5,003
  • Jun 12, 2007 5:36am Jun 12, 2007 5:36am
Quoting SynWind
wow.. over 300+ messages on this thread already.
can some on summaries any changes to the post 1 message method??

thanks
Hi, for summery go to the page 289 post 4335.
  • #5,004
  • Jun 12, 2007 5:43am Jun 12, 2007 5:43am
Quoting ira
Hi, for summery go to the page 289 post 4335.
thanks for your prompt respond. i am looking excited to trade with this method.
  • #5,005
  • Jun 12, 2007 5:47am Jun 12, 2007 5:47am
You are welcome you'll like it!
  • #5,006
  • Jun 12, 2007 5:50am Jun 12, 2007 5:50am
Quoting BIL2205
hello , thankyou for your continious effort to teach us newbies. can u please explain what is inside top lows and highs in your previous post. Thankyou!!!
Inside tops and bottoms were kindly introduced by Tamkras. p114 post 1710
Am I right Pips?
  • #5,007
  • Jun 12, 2007 6:01am Jun 12, 2007 6:01am
Quoting ira
Inside tops and bottoms were kindly introduced by Tamkras. p114 post 1710
Am I right Pips?
Thank you, Ira! You are very correct. Anyone interested in learning them should search all of TamKras' posts for Inside Tops, Inside Bottoms, Nesting dolls, IND and UND.
  • #5,008
  • Jun 12, 2007 6:18am Jun 12, 2007 6:18am
How can I thank you for your kindness? Ok half of my first million is yours the other I'll give to Phillip !
  • #5,009
  • Jun 12, 2007 6:39am Jun 12, 2007 6:39am
Quoting kappa
Hi pips,

Thank you for your teaching. I always appreciate your efforts to render us support in both technically and mentally.

Please see the EUR/USD daily chart to make sure that I understand your method well.

We see two long tails upward at the arrow, that's confirmation of failure to go above the upper trendchannel (thick red). One should prepare for possible short entry using 1 hr TF. When the price close below 21 EMA, its a signal for short.

In this case, 1.3345 and 1.3315 are inside top numbers.

Do I understand in a right way ?

If I were a bit more careful and looked at this daily chart, I would not have gone long this pair at a slight TC signal on 4hr chart. I lost 35pips that time.

And I checked GBP/USD daily chart bcos you mentioned that you are looking at this pair for long entry. Last two days candels made you to look for long trade ?

Waiting for your second part of teaching !

Wow!! Kappa you have got it!!! Nicely done! ....I can't exactly verify your inside top levels...b/c I can't really tell by eyeballing your chart...but it def. looks close.

Yes, the tails are failures to close above the channel (and the green candle was a failure of a previous IT L to the left)..due to profit taking and/or short selling. Yes! I would note the price level from the TL on the daily, switchto the 4 hour, assess the market topography (note the distance to the MA's and the MACD direction and level). This may be a contratrade, but I would consider it a high probability, high pip trade (but I'd still plan for partial profits and BE move).

I would look for 2 trades from your arrow -- the first would be w/the close of the green arrow. I would have immediately noted the IT failure and the Res. Line failure. I would look for the sell signal on the 4 hour and use the 1 hour to hopefully enter on a retracement towards the resistance line (I'd probably have a sell order pending if I had the signal to sell from the 4 hour MACD). My stop would be above the high of the green wick.

Trade #2 would set up the next day, after the close of the red candle. That low will now become a new IT L to watch for in the future -- a close below that level w/MACD conf. would give me an entry if the MA's on the 4 hour support the r:r (my stop would be above the high of the wick). I use exactly the same method with the 4 hour support lines. (if you didn't have time to monitor, the daily chart supported a short trade too.)

I am now out of the Cable and GBP/JPY longs. The cable long was b/c price kept closing w/in a support line on the 4 hour and price pierced, but did not close outside of the daily support line. I also liked that price had bounced up past the daily 89 (hadn't closed yet though), but I did have a close above recent double high on the 4 hour (I entered at 1.9683 and closed the trade when price hit the 21 at 1.9750). I'm favoring a short next, but I need to see a zero bounce (is that the right term?)...will wait and see what the market tells us!

Thank you Kappa! Your chart looks so good!!! & it is so Awesome to hear that thinking about the bigger picture has helped you filter out some not so good trades!!!

Best to you,
Pips
  • #5,010
  • Jun 12, 2007 6:41am Jun 12, 2007 6:41am
Quoting ira
How can I thank you for your kindness? Ok half of my first million is yours the other I'll give to Phillip !
Now your talking...Your first million....Yes! I love that kind of thinking!

But, I'll make you a deal....You get to keep it all....as long as you never forget that you were new to this biz too once..K?

Now, I can't speak for Phillips half.....
  • #5,011
  • Jun 12, 2007 6:59am Jun 12, 2007 6:59am
Quoting pips4uandme
hi Ira:

This post is in response to your question re: how do I analyze the market pre-trade entry.

Price action is always considered first, MACD is used to confirm momentum and market direction. So, first I must figure out where the market I'm looking at stands in relationship to price. How do I attempt to do this? The tools that I use are:

1. Support and Resistance.

  1. Where are the support and resistance levels on the daily chart? Is price near support? Is it near resistance? Note the levels so they are easy for you to reference. Use support and resistance lines. I also note the Inside top Low directly to the left of current price.

Hope this is helpful....Let me know if you have any questions

Pips

Hi Pips, thank you for this excellent post. The dumb question i have is when you determine your daily s/r levels, are you looking at the previous days hi/low? I appreciate all your great contributions Pips.
  • #5,012
  • Jun 12, 2007 7:10am Jun 12, 2007 7:10am
Quoting jland
Pips,

Thanks for sharing your trade plan setup to us. Basically I'm doing the same thing. I also take the support and resistance lines base on the Daily Chart.

My question is when do you usually get rid of the other trend lines or you don't delete them at all? I know Phil even showed us the eur/usd trend way back 1985 to the present. Because I don't like to see my chart all cluttered with lines. It makes my confuse more. So my tendency is to only look for the current trend channel the price is moving. And using the Daily Chart that can be a BIG channel thats why my Support & Resistance would always be on the extreme. Which may be useless if because I am a day trader and not a long term trader.

Anyway, let me go back to my main question. When do you delete your trendlines?

Thanks,

Jland
Hi Jland!

I understand not liking the clutter of old lines on our charts....but, I have also learned the important lesson that the market has a better memory than I do!

It really depends on the pair I'm looking at....Swissie, I have a couple of TL's on the daily that are 2 years old (the most recent one I have been playing and planning around is from 2 years ago. The new one (b/c of the breakout), is 13 months old. I add additional as is important by eyeballing and drawing. I delete when the line flies out into space that is way way far away and is separated by time (at least a few months on the daily).

For cable, I have multiple channels on the daily charts....you could call them channels within channels. The major ones stay....the smaller channels that zig zag get deleted when they are no longer being obeyed. Major lines stay forever.

For the 4 hour, if it is a line that price is attracted to often, the line stays. I also keep at least 2 months worth of data visible on my charts....I am finding that the same lines play over and over and it is really important to keep them on the chart for a long time (months on 4 hour).

Here's an example of the daily cable....please don't ask how I derived the channels...they are connected at 3 or more points, but the chart is condensed so it can be posted well...it's just an example of channels w/in channels...

Hope this long answer helped....Yikes...

Also, Congrats on being #5000
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  • #5,013
  • Jun 12, 2007 7:19am Jun 12, 2007 7:19am
This is my last post for the day...Promise

Before you start to confuse many elements into your strategy, please focus your mental energies on understanding the market rhythm. Phillip's observations on market behavior are priceless and will result in many pips for your account. If you can understand how price moves, when to enter, and when to run away, you are 80% of the way towards your dreams.

Once you've mastered the motion, focus on support and resistance. Practice drawing your lines and find a method of trade entry that works for you. In my backtests, I entered on candle openings...just using s & r, market motion and candle patterns....the results were amazing.

I trade the same way...S & R w/MACD confirmation. The market motion has also become "automatic," like scanning the road when driving...you are always aware, but you aren't aware you are doing it. Don't get fancy and don't add things to your trades that you haven't practiced and mastered. We are all different...and what works well for one trader may or may not work well for another. We have to understand what we are doing in order to follow our entry rules.

Wishing you all mucho mas pips this week!

Pips
  • #5,014
  • Jun 12, 2007 7:24am Jun 12, 2007 7:24am
Quoting O'Zeeke
Hi Pips, thank you for this excellent post. The dumb question i have is when you determine your daily s/r levels, are you looking at the previous days hi/low? I appreciate all your great contributions Pips.
Yikes...so much for my promise of the last post

First and foremost....Hi O'Zeeke!! Long time no talk....I love that your dog woke you up before you got stopped out....trying to train mine to do the same

No, I look at channels and Inside Tops, Inside Bottoms....and Trend Lines if they are nearby...If none of these levels are nearby or tagged recently, then levels are determined strictly by the 4 hour chart.

Hope you are doing fantastic!!

Talk to you later,
Donna
  • #5,015
  • Jun 12, 2007 8:11am Jun 12, 2007 8:11am
Quoting pips4uandme
Yikes...so much for my promise of the last post

First and foremost....Hi O'Zeeke!! Long time no talk....I love that your dog woke you up before you got stopped out....trying to train mine to do the same

No, I look at channels and Inside Tops, Inside Bottoms....and Trend Lines if they are nearby...If none of these levels are nearby or tagged recently, then levels are determined strictly by the 4 hour chart.

Hope you are doing fantastic!!

Talk to you later,
Donna
Thanks for the response Pips, now if i can translate your answer into DOGGY, i can have him enter the trade as well as wake me up when to get out. Take care
  • #5,016
  • Jun 12, 2007 8:37am Jun 12, 2007 8:37am
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 12June2007.zip   842 KB | 1,327 downloads
  • #5,017
  • Jun 12, 2007 9:15am Jun 12, 2007 9:15am
Phillip,

Listening to your daily summary, you mentioned that you posted a summary on page 29XX? How do I get this? Sorry to ask this again. I just want to get one article/pdf sheet that gives me the A to Z on your method.

THanks
Al
  • #5,018
  • Jun 12, 2007 9:21am Jun 12, 2007 9:21am
Quoting zebra7860
Phillip,

Listening to your daily summary, you mentioned that you posted a summary on page 29XX? How do I get this? Sorry to ask this again. I just want to get one article/pdf sheet that gives me the A to Z on your method.

THanks
Al
Page 289 from post 4335 and onwards. Next to the pages numbers is a down arrow. Click on it and it will ask you to enter page number
  • #5,019
  • Jun 12, 2007 9:26am Jun 12, 2007 9:26am
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf GbpUsd trendlines.pdf   111 KB | 1,328 downloads
File Type: zip GbpUsd trendlines.zip   824 KB | 1,485 downloads
  • #5,020
  • Jun 12, 2007 9:39am Jun 12, 2007 9:39am
Hello everyone. Thanks ira for posting tams post number about inside tops. i am currently looking at GU .
Currently the 2 bull candels on each side of the bear candle show resistance at the TL. so pressure from top= short.So i will consider it a strong resistance, correct? Also the price is below the 21 MA. so this could indicate that there is downward room.possibly to 8Ma , then to the resistance TL.

So a bounce off of a 21Ma could indicate a TC down. One could only tell after the candle close.in the daily chart the short term trend is upwards to wards teh 21MA with a round bottom forming and the price is sitting on the 89 Ma.. This is where my conflict lies.

1) take the Tc signal downwards. (if confirmed off of 21 MA)
2) looking at teh daily chart the trend is upwards.
Thankyou in advance for your answers.
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