MA Crossover System that works for me

Another 4HR trendline break on GBPJPY and got signal after 1 hr candle close i am in. Let's see
Edit : This kinda sus because price still above 100 EMA

It's already give me signal if i was in when i got signal was on profit but i'm waiting for break the support zone i trust this setup

Catched EURGBP this morning

I see you are using a trendline breakout method for your trading. The EMAs show a bearish condition so it means you aren't using an MA crossover method. Have I understood correctly?

I use trendlines or supply demand zones are secondary confirmation it's just makes me feel better about trade but my priority is crossover always i look for MA crossovers

This was sus trade but i'm targeting this sup area

I am interested to know if anyone has experience using the system of this thread on stock indexes (S&P, Nasdaq ...) and if so, does it work?

Yes, it works with indices etc, but it's important to be familiar with the behaviour of these instruments. They behave a bit differently from forex. Also the scale or size of the numbers you work with, and calculating lot sizes, are quite different. So if you are familiar with these differences then there's no reason the method we follow here would not work.

I'm busy with an interesting project. Teaching someone to trade who knows nothing about trading and has only a mobile phone to work with.

There are only the basic indicators provided on Android phones, so no EAs or dashboards such as we use here, so I cut it right back to the basics.

Trading timeframe: H4
Higher TF: D1
8/21/100 EMAs on both.

When the EMAs align on both charts (=3x2 method) look for a trigger candle on H4. Trigger candle is one that opens 'inside' the 8 EMA and closes 'outside' it (same as used on our EA).

Yesterday I showed him how and where to place the SL and TP. It's very early days, but exciting to see him grasp this very simple method so quickly.

I'm thinking that this thread has served its purpose. I have learned a lot from it and have been able to focus right in on what works for me and I believe many of the traders who visited here also found value, I hope so.

I wish to thank everyone here for their posts -they were valuable in many different ways. eur-thijs, in particular, has helped us all with the EA he created. I am now using that EA (version 12) on a manual setting as a way of getting trading signals based mainly on the 3x3 method (3 EMAs aligned across 3 timeframes) but variations of that all the way down to 2x1!! Of course, I don't accept every signal, in fact I reject most based on my safety checklist. (BTW eur-thijs is a very good coder - if you need anything done, drop him a DM).

I also find the OGT trend dashboard very useful and have recently taken to using the full dashboard - all pairs showing all TFs based on the 8/21/100 EMAs - that gives a very useful overview of trend behaviour.

Perhaps the most valuable lesson from all of this is to trust the system and leave trades to run. Knowing that multiple TFs are in agreement is powerful and gives me courage to stay with a trade.

Good trading all!

Hi AlistairC,

Its been interesting following your thread, its not the way I trade so I haven't commented but it has been an interesting journey on a well managed thread, best wishes for your continued trading, Dave

Sir, it was a pleasure intereacting with you. my trading has improved a lot because of your insights. especallly when not to trade ....
best of luck to you

As a newbee in trading this thread has been very useful to me. I think in the end no ' one system' will fit everyone, but this type of thread adds to the basic skills any trader should learn. For me, personally, using the information received in this thread, I learned that probably the most important issue in trading is to wait for the best moment to step into the market. When you open your computer, do no want to be IN the market, you see lots of trend movements but tell yourself that it doesn't matter to miss out one movement (no FOMO!!), there will be enough opportunities. So the number of trades opened has gone down substantially for me and I try to buy or sell on pullbacks, with my focus being more on swing trading giving me better results.
I thank Alistair for sharing his knowledge, for answering all the questions, but also the other members giving free advice, this was really helpful and I wish all the people following this thread good trading results. Above all, enjoy!!

Even though we've kind of signed off on this thread, I feel I have to comment on what I'm seeing in the forex markets. It seems big shifts are taking place with almost no trading opportunities using the 3x3 method (3 EMAs aligned across 3 TFs), and even when it's relaxed to 2x3.

It was not long ago that this full view of the OGT dashboard (using 8/21/100 EMAs) had all JPY pairs showing green from side to side. And many others showed at least a dominant trend direction across the main TFs, if not all. Look at it now. Three of those JPY pairs are now showing red from M15 right up to D1, while the others are red from M15 to H4. What a turnaround! The only pairs now that show one colour from side to side are CADCHF and EURCHF, and my hunch is that those might soon start turning green starting on the left side, given that both are at their lowest price since as far back as I can get data (~1993). I sometimes wonder how much, or whether at all, this kind of observation mirrors the state of the world. The dashboard certainly shows a confused state of affairs in the forex markets. Or perhaps a turnaround. That's my fervent wish for the world in 2024.

Hi josi
Very valuable conclusions
Thanks alot

version with expiry 2024.06.24

There is always more to learn!

I realised that the trigger candle concept is more useful than I originally thought. This is the concept that eurusd-thijs used for his EA that he very kindly made public on this thread. In the EA I have it set to send a possible trade signal when it opens below the fast MA and closes above it (for a bullish trend). I have marked those that qualify on the chart.

The benefit of using this is that most times it represents a breakout above/below the EMAs, but also ensures that price is not overbought/oversold, so the chance of price pushing quickly away from the EMAs is increased.

I have set eurusd-thijs's EA on just one time-frame (H4 in my case) and the trigger candle on the same time-frame. So when the EA gives me a possible trade signal I am actually being told I have an H4 trigger candle waiting for me to make a decision with. I have also worked out that if the next two higher TFs (D1 and W1 in my case) show just the fast and medium EMAs are also bullish/bearish, then most times I have a good trade waiting.

"There is always more to learn"

classical analysis paralysis

1) dont trade the insturment..... trade the timeframe.....
2) develop one strategy/system in a timeframe of your choice....
3) set the settings of your indicators to suit your timeframe.....
4) backtest your indicator settings in the timeframe of your choice.....
plan your trade.........
5) find the instrument which fits in your timerame and your trading plan
once this is done..... trade the plan.
6) then comes your money management.... initial stoploss , number of lots... first target.....etc
7) lastly if the trade goes in your favour .... how to trail your stoploss to get maximum profit ?

there is no end to learning.....

plan the trade and trade the plan

"I realised that the trigger candle concept is more useful than I originally thought"
please explain in real time... entry, exit , stoploss, targets, lots, money management...

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Summary of the below (the short answer): The ideal trigger candle is one that takes place after a pullback and not too far from the origin of that trend.
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I can explain where I will enter using a trigger candle, but none of the other items you asked about because a trigger candle is just a good place to enter a trade. The rest is up to the trader.

Let us use a bullish trend as our example. A trigger candle is simply when a price bar opens below all three, or two or just the fast EMA and closes above all of them in "open" space in the direction of the dominant trend.

Notice that all of the trigger candles I have marked close above all three EMAs, in "open" space. When this happens and you decide it represents a good trade, you would usually enter it at the close. In the chart I previously posted (and again below) there are many trigger candles in the direction of the dominant trend. The first two I have marked on the left side are when the three EMAs have not yet become aligned, so if having all three EMAs aligned is important to you, you would not trade these. I would not trade the first one marked anyway because it is too explosive (long) and often price retraces after such a candle. The ideal trigger candles to go for would be the 5th and 6th ones because (i) the EMAs are fully aligned, (ii) they represent a breakout after a pullback, (iii) they are close to the EMAs so they are at the beginning of a new burst of energy and (iv) they are close to the beginning of this trend. The longer the trend lasts the less interested I would be about entering because no trend lasts forever, they all end somewhere, and I don't want to be there when that happens.

In this example I haven't looked at what the higher TFs are doing, but for a valid trade, at least one or both of the HTFs would be bullish as well.