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ReadtheMarket - Supply and Demand with Price Action

  • #8,161
  • Oct 16, 2023 1:05pm Oct 16, 2023 1:05pm
Quoting RedEagle
Hi, Everyone is trying to figure-out the trading strategy of Matrix...! So, I have visited its Profile and guessed that the clue is in the iQM. If you are able to trace it in Matrix charts too. You are half-way done. {image} Cheers
I have backtested thousands of simulations my conclusion

MAny QMs work many dont
many Iqms work many dont
many SSR kinks work many dont
many flip zones workk many dont many siginicant ignored levels work many dont
I tried approach pa and reaction pa

My conclusion
do your subjective top down market structure analysis
determine your ssr kinks
manage your trade
be psychologically strong the oucome of any individual trade is random
the strategy is profitable long term
dont expect a very high win rate even with your conservative target

people tend to show their winning trades and hide their losing trades in this business
  • #8,162
  • Oct 16, 2023 1:14pm Oct 16, 2023 1:14pm
Quoting benadil
{quote} I have backtested thousands of simulations my conclusion MAny QMs work many dont many Iqms work many dont many SSR kinks work many dont many flip zones workk many dont many siginicant ignored levels work many dont I tried approach pa and reaction pa My conclusion do your subjective top down market structure analysis determine your ssr kinks manage your trade be psychologically strong the oucome of any individual trade is random the strategy is profitable long term dont expect a very high win rate even with your conservative target people...
I agree with you 100%.
A lot of people are now here in this market. Those are showing only winning trades and making others fool and then earn by selling them their course/content.
BUT
I have met with a very few (about 3 in 7 years), those are real traders. They trades about 1:20+++ normally and with a win rate of about 90%+.

But have met many (100+), those sell RTM or RTM like content and are not good in trading.

Thanks for sharing your handworks and conclusions
Ahmad Hassan
  • #8,163
  • Oct 16, 2023 1:39pm Oct 16, 2023 1:39pm
Quoting RedEagle
{quote} I agree with you 100%. A lot of people are now here in this market. Those are showing only winning trades and making others fool and then earn by selling them their course/content. BUT I have met with a very few (about 3 in 7 years), those are real traders. They trades about 1:20+++ normally and with a win rate of about 90%+. But have met many (100+), those sell RTM or RTM like content and are not good in trading. Thanks for sharing your handworks and conclusions
90% win rate most probably are scalpers, I dont believe it is possible to have 90% WR with high risk to reward, the higher win rate the lower is risk to reward and vice versa
I could be wrong though, and I do believe and found that supply demand with market structure and price action has a statistical edge over the market but it is not the only way to trade other methods can have an edge too .
  • #8,164
  • Edited 2:29pm Oct 16, 2023 2:04pm | Edited 2:29pm
Quoting RedEagle
{quote} I agree with you 100%. A lot of people are now here in this market. Those are showing only winning trades and making others fool and then earn by selling them their course/content. BUT I have met with a very few (about 3 in 7 years), those are real traders. They trades about 1:20+++ normally and with a win rate of about 90%+. But have met many (100+), those sell RTM or RTM like content and are not good in trading. Thanks for sharing your handworks and conclusions
what will be helpful to you RadEagle is to backtest at least 200 trades according to your rules, the higher the sample size the better
market structure top down analysis
SNRS
SNDS
approach pa
reaction pa
try with diferent targets
then gather your statistics analyse them and set your own rules
this is the only way to gain coonfidence and not be influenced by any one including myself . you need to be independent confident trader
  • #8,165
  • Oct 17, 2023 11:42am Oct 17, 2023 11:42am
Quoting ahdat
{quote} part of the trend system is simplifying trading, follow the trend in the biggest scale that makes sense. There's lots of opportunities and R to be had in these kinds of trades, and a good way to keep you out of trouble. This looks like a jpy pair. Its probably trending up in the larger scale. I'd wait at the lower origin for a long (if it gets there soonish). Possibly a short at the top (there's something pretty decent up there), but i'd need some approach pa based on what im seeing so far. Ignore the middle.
been following JPY pair for few days, now comparing two trades.
trending makes difference. trending generates way higher returns. Zoom out to higher time frame and plan a trade really requires patience.

The ealier sell several posts ago was just traded in M1, it was a good trade from entry point of view, but a failed trade from trending view. It was against trend even in M1. Counter trending tade is tradable, but too much anxiety, not good for our general well being.

The recent buy shows the diffence. Since it is trending and move is in our favour, the plan is to hold it for a while and see if new high created and then another buy will be in play.


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  • #8,166
  • Oct 23, 2023 6:00pm Oct 23, 2023 6:00pm
Origin or the source of movement is one of the most important areas to consider when analyzing prices in the RTM style. This area is actually an FTR that forms immediately after a Supply or Demand area. If this FTR can hold the price, it becomes an FL and is commonly referred to as an ORFL, which plays a crucial role in RTM analysis.
The tendency for prices to return to the Origin after an FL is engulfed indicates the significance of this area. ORFLs are actually very important in determining the direction of movement and decision-making location, with many orders loaded within them. Engulfing an ORFL is a very clear sign of a change in the big boys' perspective and is always accompanied by a deep Retrace.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf ORFL.pdf   753 KB | 847 downloads
  • #8,167
  • Oct 24, 2023 7:06am Oct 24, 2023 7:06am
Quoting MrPhi
Origin or the source of movement is one of the most important areas to consider when analyzing prices in the RTM style. This area is actually an FTR that forms immediately after a Supply or Demand area. If this FTR can hold the price, it becomes an FL and is commonly referred to as an ORFL, which plays a crucial role in RTM analysis. The tendency for prices to return to the Origin after an FL is engulfed indicates the significance of this area. ORFLs are actually very important in determining the direction of movement and decision-making location,...
I dont have problems with what you said, just new people to RTM method should understand that price might not come back to your ORFL, and price sometimes can break your ORFL even with approach pa and reaction pa and sometimes price can engulf your ORFL and turn against the direction of the engulf, just manage your risk and dont be frustrated when this happen, yes ORFL are great areas to consider in trading RTM style, as in every trading method in the world sometimes they work sometimes they dont, and your ORFL is relative to your scale and time frame, as it is the case with Princecharm , he trades continuation QMs, the method is profitable but long term, thats way new traders should always keep in mind the importance of risk management trade management and psychology.
  • #8,168
  • Oct 28, 2023 7:07pm Oct 28, 2023 7:07pm
"Analysis using the RTM method and a fairly good trade!"
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Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf XAUUUUUU.pdf   1.7 MB | 1,001 downloads
  • #8,169
  • Oct 29, 2023 4:35am Oct 29, 2023 4:35am
Quoting RedEagle
Hi, Everyone is trying to figure-out the trading strategy of Matrix...! So, I have visited its Profile and guessed that the clue is in the iQM. If you are able to trace it in Matrix charts too. You are half-way done. {image} Cheers
hi RedEagle would u mind sharing your key level comes from where and what timeframe? tq
  • #8,170
  • Nov 2, 2023 9:22am Nov 2, 2023 9:22am
So this is Salivan nowadays then? He's setup a company called Solomon Fathers hedge fund. No mention of any of his time spent in RTM, of course.

Solomon Fathers (https://solomonfathers.com/)


How an Iranian Kurdish refugee started a “mysticism-driven” hedge fund trading as God would (wealthiermoksha.com) (https://www.wealthiermoksha.com/post/how-an-iranian-kurdish-refugee-started-a-mysticism-driven-hedge-fund-trading-as-god-would)

I could never quite grasp the finer details of Free Order Flow but I hope he has a bright future.... certainly seems clever enough.
  • #8,171
  • Nov 2, 2023 11:28am Nov 2, 2023 11:28am
after recent rigrous testing, some findings and thoughts to share;
- engulf
- trending
- ftr
- risk management
when enguled, trend established, almost every turn creats a ftr. all ftr is tradeable... trade from ftr to ftr.
At the moment of placing order, only god know if it is a good one or not. when it turns out to be a bad trade, get out and continue.
DO NOT try to make sense out of a bad trade. you can not beat the market. Trying to make sense of a bad trade only lead you to more doubt and frustration... becuase you will have the same trade again and again.
Therefore, risk management is PARAMOUNT!!!!!! If anyone says risk management is not necessary, run away from it as far as possible.

Here is a trade, can anyone tell why this buy did not work out? the trade was based on ftr. However, it turned out that the price just cut through it like hot knife to the butter. there is NO right or wrong, NO mistake to lear from. The only mistake is that you miss the risk management.

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  • #8,172
  • Nov 2, 2023 11:47am Nov 2, 2023 11:47am
here some trade that worked out;
In biger picture, they are actually against the trend, but they are all traded off ftr and they is heading to a ftr. All ftr is tradable... from ftr to ftr
The only reason to enter a trade is ftr. when let favourable trade run and cut short the unfavourable trade, your win rate is significantly increased.
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  • #8,173
  • Nov 2, 2023 6:08pm Nov 2, 2023 6:08pm
Quoting SuperErnie
{quote} Thank you very much for sharing. That's a whole collection of learning material. I love it!
Hi SuperE , may i know do you still have the collection of pc material ? can you share with me cause that file didn't found anymore on that link . am glad if you be able to help me =) there're something i wannna check whether my hypothesis be true or false again . but that the only way to understand how PC think about how the market work .
  • #8,174
  • Edited 12:11pm Nov 3, 2023 4:23am | Edited 12:11pm
Quoting mvf
here some trade that worked out; In biger picture, they are actually against the trend, but they are all traded off ftr and they is heading to a ftr. All ftr is tradable... from ftr to ftr The only reason to enter a trade is ftr. when let favourable trade run and cut short the unfavourable trade, your win rate is significantly increased. {image} {image} {image}
Those very same trades could have failed, the answer we dont know, and we will never know , no matter how hard we try, what helped me is risk management, and especially reducing my size so that i can withstand psychologically losing streaks when they happen, we do our analysis, top doown, market structure, snrs, lsks..., we manage our risk, and we manage our trades, the closer the target the higher win rate, further the target the lower win rate the higher the potential reward, also higher targets are emotionally difficult to implement so one of the best solutions is to reward ourselves as the trade goes in our favor by taking partials, so we should adopt the targets and trade sizes that suits our psychology. Guys please stop looking for magical levels or ftrs that you think will bring you the holy grail. Look for example PrinceCharm, 2 years ago he was so confident with his tight entries based on the engulf and origin of the move, 2 years later he kept his strategy, but he became wiser and experienced and emphasized on the paramount importance of risk management trade management and psychology he admitted himself that he has gone through rough times sometimes but still his strategy is profitable. Maybe this is my last post I am speaking from my heart, and I have extensively back tested and forward tested this strategy in and out , and I know my statistics in and out. There is no such thing as ITs sending each other engulf signals, there is no such thing as ITs pointing to a specific left shoulder level that will turn price, there is no such thing as market manipulation against retailers and Its against retailers, yes false breakouts are market facts , but also true breakouts are market facts, and false breakouts are even talked about in baby pips so dont think you know some magical concept or you understand how ITs will manipulate the retail trades who have insignificant trading volume, the big advantage of supply demand is that they are areas that give us high risk reward and thats it. now guys you are free to do whatever you like you can waste your time as I have wasted mine before, looking for magical levels and read the mind of so called ITs that control the market and send secret signals to each other. Maybe you dont like what I said, nobody has decoded or can decode the market, Ifmyante didnt decode the market, he is selling you the 25k course so wake up, this is probably the most expensive trading course in the planet, salivan trading style with his free order flow doesn't work all the time he has come with a fantastic engulf method which is price doesn't need to engulf the entire FL but suffices it to engulf the last decision point of the FL, well people are making rules, and they can be profitable but only risk management and psychology that will save you, and yes FLS, or ftrs, or order blocks or SNDs, or decision points coupled with your subjective market analysis for predicting market direction can give you an edge but you have to implement MM and appropriate psychology the two affect each other. I am sure many will not like what I have said because we all want to find explanations for what price is doing, the market doesn't work like that , it is a probability and statistical game. Someone who is trying to sell you a course will never tell you this because he wants you to be and stay confused and be dependent on him. You disagree with what I have said just do your backtests invest in a software like forex tester. Those are my final words good luck traders just when you go through rough times go back to this post and reflect. this is a video from a reliable trader not someone who has claimed he has decoded what the ITs are doing, and he claimed plainly that he doesn't trade anymore I know you know who I am referring to, so watch it and reflect again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iY1eRBVKECM&list=PL6mKRYF_-rg0xh5snePnHgH13JJVTdf96
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmtbBkCd8sM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SkNMQ6a3Lo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJYrzEQvG6E&t=5822s
  • #8,175
  • Nov 3, 2023 6:34am Nov 3, 2023 6:34am
I don't like many trading videos out there but this one right here is what everyone needs to watch and understand.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=994Rv9UXi9Q&t=316s
  • #8,176
  • Nov 3, 2023 6:12pm Nov 3, 2023 6:12pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
So this is Salivan nowadays then? He's setup a company called Solomon Fathers hedge fund. No mention of any of his time spent in RTM, of course. Solomon Fathers (https://solomonfathers.com/) How an Iranian Kurdish refugee started a “mysticism-driven” hedge fund trading as God would (wealthiermoksha.com) (https://www.wealthiermoksha.com/post/how-an-iranian-kurdish-refugee-started-a-mysticism-driven-hedge-fund-trading-as-god-would) I could never quite grasp the finer details of Free Order Flow but I hope he has a bright future.......
I was not a follower of RTM but I have seen this name a couple times on this thread. Who was he and did he show his results? So he claims to trade like a 'God', his claims are bold, he must be the only trader in history to make such claims.
  • #8,177
  • Edited 9:29am Nov 4, 2023 7:26am | Edited 9:29am
Quoting Afgg
{quote} I was not a follower of RTM but I have seen this name a couple times on this thread. Who was he and did he show his results? So he claims to trade like a 'God', his claims are bold, he must be the only trader in history to make such claims.
he had excelent result during a given period , but having an excellent 6 months results doesnt mean he can replicate those results forward, he came up with his own ideas of some free order flow and scale, and flag limit and ITs manipulation , and a relaxed condition of flag limit engulf, he was sincere he thought that he understood how ITs run the market, well he trades his beliefs which doesnt make sense to me and which i have backtested and didnt find any consistency with the engulf rule and free order flow and ITS manipulation he has identified, after extensive backtesting of all the concepts fake berakouts, three drive, compression, cplq,engulf,flag limit, paz,ftr, qm and diamond reaction pa, snr kinks, Icts fair value gaps, order blocks, optimal trade entry, draw on liquidity, discount levels,premium levels, kill zones,......, what matters is your subjective analysis of market conditions and market structure and trade at good locations that can give you good risk to reward, the more you trade the experienced you will become.

Salivan can still be an excellent trader, but not because of of his delusional understanding of hwo ITs control the market and manipulate the retailers.
you can search for his free order flow article to know his own beliefs about the market. Van tharp said we trade our beliefs and the market decides to do whatever it likes to do. Ifmyante and ICT himself want you to think that you must understand the so called manipulation of institutional traders to be profitable otherwise you will not make it, free yourself guys simplify your trading accept uncertainty, manage your risk and emotions you will be profitable, dont fall on the mistake of thinking that you need to know how the market works or is manipulated to be profitable, i have wasted my time before and I dont want you to waste yours
  • #8,178
  • Edited 7:34pm Nov 5, 2023 7:22pm | Edited 7:34pm
Quoting benadil
{quote} he had excelent result during a given period , but having an excellent 6 months results doesnt mean he can replicate those results forward, he came up with his own ideas of some free order flow and scale, and flag limit and ITs manipulation , and a relaxed condition of flag limit engulf, he was sincere he thought that he understood how ITs run the market, well he trades his beliefs which doesnt make sense to me and which i have backtested and didnt find any consistency with the engulf rule and free order flow and ITS manipulation he has...
I'll tell you this much. I have been in the game for 7 years almost. The profitable traders I know (Just 3 people btw), all trade simple price action. Candlestick patterns, Supply and Demand, Support and Resistance, Fibonacci, Break of structure, Moving Averages etc. But these guys have many many years of experience and been through the miseries of this trading journey.

The worst traders I know act like they have discovered some secret and can't wait to open up an Instagram page and start posting, 2 pip SLs, 'Smart money' etc (But these are just new guys who have jumped on trading in the last 2/3 years or so, still very new in their journey and just about beginning for them) So we will let it slide.

Big banks move the markets? Who cares? Supply and Demand, especially the H4+ zones are great areas to trade from and create a strategy around and that's just from my experience. Do they manipulate price? Again, Who cares? That's irrelevant information, our job to trade a system with an edge and gain a lot of years of experience with it understand when to trade and when to avoid. Intuition must be built, it is the only reason why successful traders are successful.

It is easier to become profitable trading and focusing on just 1 instrument and becoming a specialist at it. This is the most common trait of these actual profitable traders I know. They just trade 1 currency pair and that's it.

I am not saying manipulation doesn't exist, nor am I saying RTM, ICT or whatever is out there, is BS. Of course not, that's not the point of this post. I just don't care and neither should others tbh.

Again, this is all my opinion and my experiences, not advising anyone or anything. Do what you guys like. But I know what I am doing.
  • #8,179
  • Edited 9:09am Nov 18, 2023 8:34am | Edited 9:09am
trading gets boring. im thinking about creating a little discord group for full-ish time traders. Parameters:

Symbols: Majors, US indices (nas100, spx500, us2000, us30), commodities (usoil, copper, gold). my personal focus is the us indices but it doesnt seem like many people trade these
TFs: h1/h4+
active trade times: around euro open, but this can bleed into us open
types of trades: identifying 'next moves'. reversal, next leg of a trend move, ltf confirmation, etc... sharing your precise levels is optional.

not a learning group, more for trade ideas of upcoming swings or major levels. then its up to the individual on how to trade it (po, ltf confirmation, etc...). not interested in posts of past trades. most ideally, if things are flowing we are all watching and trading the same/best handful of moves because we have a level of trust in each other. not interested in anyone's secrets or methods. trying to make trading easier for all of us and get us trading in the right direction, maybe tie it to some fundamentals, and to talk some shop. i want to keep the gropus small and tight, everyone contributing. wallflowers will be booted. pm me if you fit the parameters.
RIP RTM - long live Nonsense Trading
  • #8,180
  • Nov 18, 2023 9:28am Nov 18, 2023 9:28am
Quoting ahdat
trading gets boring. im thinking about creating a little discord group for full-ish time traders. Parameters: Symbols: Majors, US indices (nas100, spx500, us2000, us30), commodities (usoil, copper, gold). my personal focus is the us indices but it doesnt seem like many people trade these TFs: h1/h4+ active trade times: around euro open, but this can bleed into us open types of trades: identifying 'next moves'. reversal, next leg of a trend move, ltf confirmation, etc... sharing your precise levels is optional. not a learning group, more for trade...
Hello
I can't write to you privately, however I would like to be part of this group
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