Trust the Backtest? | Forex Factory

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Trust the Backtest?

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 28, 2023 10:17am Oct 28, 2023 10:17am
Hi, I have multiple EAs, all with nearby this result (Currency and Timeframe are different on each EA).
I Start with 250 EUR and this is the Result after 20 years. It is an full automated EA. I run it, and 14 other EAs, on an virtual private server.
The EAs have an dynamic Lot balancing. I Start with 0.01 and if I get another 250 EUR the lot raises 0.01 (and its trades smaller Lots after loses). Maximum is 9.9 Lots. More then 10 Lots is not possible with my Broker.
How do you think about this EA. Should I trust an EA with an result like this?
Kind regards
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  • #2
  • Oct 28, 2023 1:37pm Oct 28, 2023 1:37pm
Forward test on demo account and see
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #3
  • Nov 1, 2023 12:22am Nov 1, 2023 12:22am
This EA is quite impressive but only thing you should do is test it on demo for a few months. I think you can trust this EA if drawdown is at acceptable point.
  • #4
  • Nov 2, 2023 2:51pm Nov 2, 2023 2:51pm
looks to good to be true, one of those that reads history ?
  • #5
  • Nov 3, 2023 9:31am Nov 3, 2023 9:31am
Quoting eurodirk
Hi, I have multiple EAs, all with nearby this result (Currency and Timeframe are different on each EA). I Start with 250 EUR and this is the Result after 20 years. It is an full automated EA. I run it, and 14 other EAs, on an virtual private server. The EAs have an dynamic Lot balancing. I Start with 0.01 and if I get another 250 EUR the lot raises 0.01 (and its trades smaller Lots after loses). Maximum is 9.9 Lots. More then 10 Lots is not possible with my Broker. How do you think about this EA. Should I trust an EA with an result like this? Kind...
Backtest and real trading are 2 big differences. Don't trust tests...
www.myfxbook.com/members/AMBASSADORFX
  • #6
  • Nov 3, 2023 11:28am Nov 3, 2023 11:28am
Quoting eurodirk
How do you think about this EA. Should I trust an EA with an result like this? Kind regards {image}
The best way is to run it on a demo/real account and see how it compares to the backtest, for the same period.
BTW, the most recent period doesn't look great in the backtest. And the market is constantly changing. So don't get your hopes too high.
  • #7
  • Nov 7, 2023 11:59am Nov 7, 2023 11:59am
Test it on a demo account for a while, it will all be clear from there and you have not wasted your time.
  • #8
  • Last Post: Nov 8, 2023 4:54am Nov 8, 2023 4:54am
Quoting eurodirk
Hi, I have multiple EAs, all with nearby this result (Currency and Timeframe are different on each EA). I Start with 250 EUR and this is the Result after 20 years. It is an full automated EA. I run it, and 14 other EAs, on an virtual private server. The EAs have an dynamic Lot balancing. I Start with 0.01 and if I get another 250 EUR the lot raises 0.01 (and its trades smaller Lots after loses). Maximum is 9.9 Lots. More then 10 Lots is not possible with my Broker. How do you think about this EA. Should I trust an EA with an result like this? Kind...
Backtests are based on historical data and assumptions, which may not accurately reflect future market conditions. They can't account for unforeseen events or changing market dynamics. Trusting a backtest alone can lead to over-optimistic expectations, and real-world trading often differs from the simulated results. It's crucial to combine backtesting with forward testing and risk management to make informed trading decisions.
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