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EURUSD only

  • #182,601
  • Oct 27, 2023 8:51pm Oct 27, 2023 8:51pm
This chart is H4,
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My intention is to buy in the 1.05402 region upwards, calculating the buy limit entry for the 3rd candle of Monday's H1.
"No pain no gain"
  • #182,602
  • Oct 28, 2023 1:52am Oct 28, 2023 1:52am
EU had a bad week after a failed bullish attempt to break 1.0700 at Monday and closed below 1.0600 yesterday, but it is still ranging inside the channel (4 hours chart). Bears will need to keep the price below the low of this channel so they can break below 1.0516/1.0482 zone and reach the low at 1.0448. The bulls will try to keep the price above the low of the same channel so later they can surpass 1.0640 resistance on the way to 1.0695.

Weekly volatility (range) - 111 pips

Significant news - US JOLTS Job Openings, US Interest Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Factory Orders MoM & US Nonfarm Payrolls.

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Have a great rest of the weekend!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #182,603
  • Oct 28, 2023 2:03am Oct 28, 2023 2:03am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Thanks... the DAILY chart provides a much simpler channel... Here, it is still unclear to me if price will go straight up to 1.0642 or down to 1.0490 area... That's why I call it a dog fight! Patience is key! Best wishes {image}
Daily subcycles last for about 20-30 bars. Therefore, 10 candles doing something will normally imply 10 more candles doing something related to it. A sideways channel or an impulse-reversal-continuation (20 candles total), etc...

This may help.
  • #182,604
  • Edited 7:36am Oct 28, 2023 2:50am | Edited 7:36am
Quick H4 Outlook

  1. Overall, it is not wrong to say that bulls are trying to get out of the long-term bearish channel. In the last week they actually did good BUT: Bulls have not established a base above 1.0579 breakout level. We are still below this level and therefore bears have the upper hand. I colored the area with red to emphasize the triangle zone inside the falling wedge that H4 candles are currently in.
  2. I also have 3 scenarios. Personally, I would wish for scenario A to play out, but markets don't operate on wishes, so we must consider all three:

    1. Scenario A: Bulls break above 1.0579. That would open doors to 1.0632 area and higher with momentum.
    2. Scenario B: Price keeps getting rejected by the steep intra-trendline and we slowly drop to 1.0475 until there is a breakout to the upside, which could create a last chance for bulls to recover and reverse.
    3. Scenario C: Price just keeps falling into the abyss once last man standing: 1.0475 area fails...

That's my quick view for Monday... Pick your scenario and trade accordingly...

Anyway, for now keep enjoying your weekends folks... We hopefully meet again on Monday...

Peace

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #182,605
  • Oct 28, 2023 10:03am Oct 28, 2023 10:03am
Quoting johncen
{quote} love this plan!
For now it's going as expected, one day after another...
"No pain no gain"
  • #182,606
  • Edited 2:46pm Oct 29, 2023 3:59am | Edited 2:46pm
Quoting Endoephemera
{quote} ...Next week, 43rd, I expect up to around 1.065 and then down trend resumption...
Past week, 43rd, price exceeded my expectation upward. The rise removed the impediment we'd been having of too many retails short.
Next week, 44th, I expect down continuation. To 1.04 and lower.

Note for the real pro traders. Next week, as you all probably already know, will be dominated by one major event; it has been on every trader's mind for months. It will have a huge impact on EURUSD. Perhaps I shouldn't even say it, since all the big players know about it, but, alright, I'll say it all the same for the one or two guys out of a million who might have missed it. I'm talking about the big news, of course, and that is, fasten your seat belts, that on the night of November 2 and 3, Jupiter will be in opposition.
Just messing with you, guys.
Practitioner of the cryptic trading arts
  • #182,607
  • Oct 29, 2023 11:48am Oct 29, 2023 11:48am
Quoting Endoephemera
{quote} Past week, 43rd, price exceeded my expectation upward. The rise removed the impediment we'd been having of too many retails short. Next week, 44th, I expect down continuation. To 1.04 and lower. Note for the real pro traders. Next week, as you all probably already know, will be dominated by one major event; it has been on every trader's mind for months. It will have a huge impact on EURUSD. Perhaps I shouldn't even say it, since all the big players know about it, but, alright, I'll say it all the same for the one or two guys out of a million...
Lol! I don't think it's appropriate for this forum, but I thought you will say something like, interest rates or Lagarde speaking but I was wrong Anyway it's a good reason to go outside do some stargazing and take some pictures!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #182,608
  • Oct 29, 2023 12:46pm Oct 29, 2023 12:46pm
H1 Analysis Pre-Market Opening

  1. I am marking the big ellipse's rim as nearest support: 1.0554 area!
  2. Either bears will jump out from this zeppelin or bulls will stay inside ellipse and soon attack 1.0584...
  3. Just by looking at MACD, it is not wrong to say that bulls have the upper hand for now. Let's see how things will play out!

Wishing everyone a happy new trading week in advance..

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #182,609
  • Oct 29, 2023 1:16pm Oct 29, 2023 1:16pm
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Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
  • #182,610
  • Oct 29, 2023 4:15pm Oct 29, 2023 4:15pm
Good evening, hope you're great. For tomorrow, I have 1.0578 as resistance 1, and 1.0591 as resistance 2. The support level is at 1.0550. 1H chart;
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  • #182,611
  • Oct 29, 2023 6:34pm Oct 29, 2023 6:34pm
Dear fellow traders, Wanted to wish you all a great week with my big !

It's been quite the scalping heaven, a choppy choppy ranging heaven heavy crazy fun adventure for a good month now!!

Bloody last Friday, the 1min went through the usual 20s ,100s, but also the 1000s and even 5000s and EVEN 10000MAs !!! Flat and grand say I !

So, like my last shares, it's mostly small TPs time ! That's right, it's mostly "take my money and run while dancing and laughing" time for me!

But it's even more focus on picking the crumbs and running like good'ol dirty rats, because ::: Big news every day all week !

Even more importantly, it's a great time to celebrate the people I love with laughter, peace and tenderness, as life does its declining tricks on us and our loved ones, little by little, and without much warning. So,

The warmest of my many wishes for each and every one of you for this week :

Carpe diem !
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If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #182,612
  • Oct 29, 2023 6:36pm Oct 29, 2023 6:36pm
Any Auction Market Theory traders here?

During my weekend analyses I have come across a more detailed view of EURUSD. Breaking down the composite market profile into 2 separate profiles, more accurately showing the price ranges over time. I came across something interesting, a stacked double value area / balanced area;

Price has been obeying the levels (VAH's, VAL's, P.O.C's) very well for the last 2 trading days, as shown by the single TPO'S. If this balanced, responsive activity continues I believe these levels could continue to be powerful and as such we can expect further responsive activity around them. If price starts the week unbalanced, its simply a case of reversing the levels. Use order flow or other tools around these levels to confirm entries either way.

Below that I marked up those same value levels on a 2HR volume profile chart to the exact same time period on EUR futures. This is to see if there are any large volume clusters we can use to our advantage (Entry or stop loss support/resistance). There are some high volume clusters around the market profile's P.O.Cs, so that can be taken into account. The value area of the volume profile confirms the market profile value area(s).

A lot of high impact news this week incoming, volatility and trends may be incoming, trade safe.
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Seeking Fair Value
  • #182,613
  • Oct 29, 2023 8:07pm Oct 29, 2023 8:07pm
Quoting JBRolim
{quote} For now it's going as expected, one day after another...
I am still waiting patiently until we closes the day above 50dsma or under 20dsma

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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #182,614
  • Oct 29, 2023 11:47pm Oct 29, 2023 11:47pm
EU is ranging below 1.0597 Fridays high and below 1.0573 is looking for at least the daily S1 level - 15 min chart. Above the last it can move to 1.0610 and if it doesn't get sold by the bears will reach 1.0635/40 next.

Daily volatility (range) - 51 pips

Significant news - German CPI & GDP

15 min
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Have a great week!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #182,615
  • Oct 29, 2023 11:56pm Oct 29, 2023 11:56pm
Quoting mtako
Dear fellow traders, Wanted to wish you all a great week with my big ! It's been quite the scalping heaven, a choppy choppy ranging heaven heavy crazy fun adventure for a good month now!! Bloody last Friday, the 1min went through the usual 20s ,100s, but also the 1000s and even 5000s and EVEN 10000MAs !!! Flat and grand say I ! So, like my last shares, it's mostly small TPs time ! That's right, it's mostly "take my money and run while dancing...
You're killing it with the metaphors, mtako my friend! Seriously, you've got a great outlook on trading and on life. Keep spreading those good vibes, and have a green week in the markets! Thanks!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #182,616
  • Oct 30, 2023 1:24am Oct 30, 2023 1:24am
Good morning, hope you're well. I think the bulls might be showing up early, even though we haven't reached* the support level yet lol, if they can keep it above 1.0563. 1H, and 5M charts;
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  • #182,617
  • Oct 30, 2023 1:37am Oct 30, 2023 1:37am
Forget about the bulls, because it is the bears that are showing up now;
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  • #182,618
  • Oct 30, 2023 2:11am Oct 30, 2023 2:11am
I just placed a sell now;
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  • #182,619
  • Oct 30, 2023 2:30am Oct 30, 2023 2:30am
I just closed it now, with small profit lol;
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  • #182,620
  • Oct 30, 2023 2:33am Oct 30, 2023 2:33am
Dang! You nailing it my friend

You must be seeing something the rest of the market isn't. What's the rationale behind your sell decision?
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
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