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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #2,501
  • Oct 23, 2023 8:04am Oct 23, 2023 8:04am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Welcome to the thread, all pretty friendly here. I'm building up a database of parameters whilst optimising my EAs, takes a while to get everything finished even though I have access to many PCs, I've found the feedback quite revealing. Concepts are always inline with the basics of the thread though, no predictions, no SL, averaging in/out, multiple pairs, small lots big bank, I trade live. Not sure Rob can help much with your algos though, he's an old part-time construction worker with no interest in computers.
...you're not wrong...
  • #2,502
  • Oct 24, 2023 5:35am Oct 24, 2023 5:35am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Welcome to the thread, all pretty friendly here. I'm building up a database of parameters whilst optimising my EAs, takes a while to get everything finished even though I have access to many PCs, I've found the feedback quite revealing. Concepts are always inline with the basics of the thread though, no predictions, no SL, averaging in/out, multiple pairs, small lots big bank, I trade live. Not sure Rob can help much with your algos though, he's an old part-time construction worker with no interest in computers.
Yep, ive tried lots of different parameters etc back testing and coding. its quite enjoyable for me to be honest. Like someone said before, my favourite are the ranging erratic pairs
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  • #2,503
  • Oct 26, 2023 8:52am Oct 26, 2023 8:52am
Putting my 5min EAs into play this week (live), the backtesting/optimisations are encoraging enough to warrant forward testing. Putting my gains so far on the line so fingers crossed they play out. I always find new strategies go south for a bit at the the beginning, but if it all goes tits-up longer term I'll revert back.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,504
  • Oct 26, 2023 5:33pm Oct 26, 2023 5:33pm
Quoting LazyTrades
Putting my 5min EAs into play this week (live), the backtesting/optimisations are encoraging enough to warrant forward testing. Putting my gains so far on the line so fingers crossed they play out. I always find new strategies go south for a bit at the the beginning, but if it all goes tits-up longer term I'll revert back.
Have had a couple new ones running this week aswell, will update at the end of the trading week with how they are going, what kind of logic are you using on your m5 ea's?
  • #2,505
  • Edited 4:10pm Oct 27, 2023 3:54pm | Edited 4:10pm
Basically big bear candle = buy, big bull candle = sell, only repeats if no nearby trade, small TP on each pair/basket, running on 7 pairs. It's all just a variation of the averaging in/out mentality regardless, no SL, indis or predictions, patience is the biggest tool. Running on 5 mins rather than 4 hr charts increases DD but all backtesting shows it plays out ok, the only difficult thing to replicate is how each pair will correlate over time whilst running simultaneously.

First week has been profitable so far, live account now at +5.64% (equity) = +.41% weekly. Have a good weekend all.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,506
  • Oct 27, 2023 6:22pm Oct 27, 2023 6:22pm
Quoting LazyTrades
Basically big bear candle = buy, big bull candle = sell, only repeats if no nearby trade, small TP on each pair/basket, running on 7 pairs. It's all just a variation of the averaging in/out mentality regardless, no SL, indis or predictions, patience is the biggest tool. Running on 5 mins rather than 4 hr charts increases DD but all backtesting shows it plays out ok, the only difficult thing to replicate is how each pair will correlate over time whilst running simultaneously. First week has been profitable so far, live account now at +5.64% (equity)...
Ive ended the week +1% on my scalping account and 0.5% on my longer term account, yea I find trading as many different assets that do not correlate the most beneficial, My concept is the same except I have one set running on an RSI trigger and the other is just always in the market both adapt with an ATR for the grids, I also use tick for my EA's not time frames. Heres an idea for you that I use, the 5m chart is almost like a different asset to the same currency in a 4h chart depending on your trigger, so even though I only have 2 algos running, I have them on 12 pairs and 3 different timeframes so 36 running at the one time, does that make sense?
  • #2,507
  • Oct 27, 2023 6:48pm Oct 27, 2023 6:48pm
hello waves,
monday i will reveal my bollinger bands averaging style here
  • #2,508
  • Oct 28, 2023 3:10am Oct 28, 2023 3:10am
Quoting voeltoez
hello waves, monday i will reveal my bollinger bands averaging style here
Please do, be good to get this thread buzzing...
  • #2,509
  • Oct 28, 2023 3:27am Oct 28, 2023 3:27am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} 6 x SHORTS BE 32471......don't reckon it will get there before the weekend but you never know...
Finally in profit with this trade after 7 months, price now @ 32387..will let it run next week as well
  • #2,510
  • Oct 28, 2023 8:15am Oct 28, 2023 8:15am
Quoting WallFlower
{quote} Ive ended the week +1% on my scalping account and 0.5% on my longer term account, yea I find trading as many different assets that do not correlate the most beneficial, My concept is the same except I have one set running on an RSI trigger and the other is just always in the market both adapt with an ATR for the grids, I also use tick for my EA's not time frames. Heres an idea for you that I use, the 5m chart is almost like a different asset to the same currency in a 4h chart depending on your trigger, so even though I only have 2 algos...
Same pair, different timeframe EAs sounds an interesting concept, lots of ways to skin the cat using similar basics apparently, keep them coming. My concern is always the margin requirements when you have so many trades open at the same time, backtesting always shows there will be a bigger than usual DD scenario when averaging so my EAs are all optimised for min DD. I've got in to the habit of closing everything when there's a reasonable profit on the table and one or more pairs is starting to build. My pairs mostly provide positive swap one-way as well, which helps.

Even with min lots, and a reasonable size bank, margin requirements can get quite large, at least with my broker at 30:1. Once I get to £1M in the account things should get easier . I'm guessing Rob's account has quite a few zeros in it.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,511
  • Edited 9:43am Oct 28, 2023 9:03am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Finally in profit with this trade after 7 months, price now @ 32387..will let it run next week as well
Wow 7 months...I am wondering what broker you use most of broker will charge you 1 pip a day as swap.
I am wondering why not average down when it was around 35K and close them together. I am just trying to understand thought process.
The reason I am asking this is if you have bought around 30K you may not see for couple of years. How do you deal with such scenario? How long you wait before giving up on a trade?
  • #2,512
  • Oct 28, 2023 9:54am Oct 28, 2023 9:54am
Quoting sampat
{quote} Wow 7 months...I am wondering what broker you use most of broker will charge you 1 pip a day as swap. I am wondering why not average down when it was around 35K and close them together. I am just trying to understand thought process. The reason I am asking this is if you have bought around 30K you may not see for couple of years. How do you deal with such scenario? How long you wait before giving up on a trade?
Yes swaps are charged part on the game, I hedge and average out using other pairs and indices, have about 100 trades on at one time was up to 130 this week but closed a few now down to 92 some in profit some underwater, at the moment P/L in profit which is unusual for for me, I deal with big DD's by having large bank and only trade small lots, thanks for your question...hope the answer helps...
  • #2,513
  • Oct 28, 2023 10:00am Oct 28, 2023 10:00am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Yes swaps are charged part on the game, I hedge and average out using other pairs and indices, have about 100 trades on at one time was up to 130 this week but closed a few now down to 92 some in profit some underwater, at the moment P/L in profit which is unusual for for me, I deal with big DD's by having large bank and only trade small lots, thanks for your question...hope the answer helps...
Thats great. How do you keep track on all of them 100-200 trades it is difficult to remember price levels pairs etc....
  • #2,514
  • Oct 28, 2023 10:07am Oct 28, 2023 10:07am
Quoting sampat
{quote} Thats great. How do you keep track on all of them 100-200 trades it is difficult to remember price levels pairs etc....
I mostly close when in profit, so flicking through on the phone doesn't take long to see the trades that are in the green(blue with my broker), to sum it up I don't trade the markets I trade my positions...
  • #2,515
  • Oct 28, 2023 10:12am Oct 28, 2023 10:12am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} I mostly close when in profit, so flicking through on the phone doesn't take long to see the trades that are in the green(blue with my broker), to sum it up I don't trade the markets I trade my positions...
Yes think this sums it up quite well, I only ever check equity and margin.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,516
  • Oct 28, 2023 10:14am Oct 28, 2023 10:14am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Yes think this sums it up quite well, I only ever check equity and margin.
Same here just watch my equity as P/L is nearly always in the red and can be disheartening ...what's margin
  • #2,517
  • Oct 28, 2023 10:29am Oct 28, 2023 10:29am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Same here just watch my equity as P/L is nearly always in the red and can be disheartening ...what's margin
Margin = probably something I should pay less attention to
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,518
  • Oct 28, 2023 9:13pm Oct 28, 2023 9:13pm
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Same pair, different timeframe EAs sounds an interesting concept, lots of ways to skin the cat using similar basics apparently, keep them coming. My concern is always the margin requirements when you have so many trades open at the same time, backtesting always shows there will be a bigger than usual DD scenario when averaging so my EAs are all optimised for min DD. I've got in to the habit of closing everything when there's a reasonable profit on the table and one or more pairs is starting to build. My pairs mostly provide positive swap...
yep, there definitely is, I'm using 1:500 at the moment on my personal account and just scale accordingly if I had to go back to an Aussie 1:30 broker, Yea backtesting shows some pretty hefty DD sometimes but my results are usually always better in live trading as I'm able to close things and hedge when needed. I usually close baskets of trades aswell sometimes. There was an old old trader on here called brijon a long time ago who has some concepts I still use today, has anyone heard of him? He was abit controversial so if it's best I don't discuss it let me know and I'll shut it down
  • #2,519
  • Oct 29, 2023 1:22pm Oct 29, 2023 1:22pm
Quoting WallFlower
{quote} yep, there definitely is, I'm using 1:500 at the moment on my personal account and just scale accordingly if I had to go back to an Aussie 1:30 broker, Yea backtesting shows some pretty hefty DD sometimes but my results are usually always better in live trading as I'm able to close things and hedge when needed. I usually close baskets of trades aswell sometimes. There was an old old trader on here called brijon a long time ago who has some concepts I still use today, has anyone heard of him? He was abit controversial so if it's best I don't...
I'm sure it's fine to put out concepts for general discussion, I doubt any of us here are doing something completely original that hasn't been done before in some form or other.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,520
  • Oct 30, 2023 5:21pm Oct 30, 2023 5:21pm
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} I'm sure it's fine to put out concepts for general discussion, I doubt any of us here are doing something completely original that hasn't been done before in some form or other.
Yea your right, essentially he was using a 'hedge' he called it essentially a bunch of pairs that when opened together never really went into profit or loss but are hedged with each other and he used the profit and loss section if mt4 to decide when to trade (no chart), essentially buying pairs as they move into profit and averaging out the losers when the direction changes, he was a terrible communicator but I got the chance to speak with some of his friends on skype not long after he died they said that he essentially gave up because it was nearly impossible to explain to people that it's possible to trade without a chart, I think wave would have experienced this when he said the said that's how he does it. I'll go through my old notes and show a couple of the techniques he showed us when I'm back at my desk later today. Apologies for the rant it's just wave is the first person who I've seen since use something similar.
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