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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #2,461
  • Aug 22, 2023 12:28pm Aug 22, 2023 12:28pm
Quoting d5400
{quote} That's interesting. How do you deal with the gap?
I can reply and say the gap is up to the operator, The published EA just pushes either side of price. I've one solution which is running live as we speak, has banked 3 profitable rounds so far but it's too early to say.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,462
  • Aug 23, 2023 3:52am Aug 23, 2023 3:52am
Quoting d5400
{quote} That's interesting. How do you deal with the gap?
Hi d5 . EA only use to open trades after that the fun begins
Basic hedging when gap starts opening up .
Scan for ranging pairs London session and take notice of S/R before i unleash the EA
  • #2,463
  • Aug 24, 2023 4:22pm Aug 24, 2023 4:22pm
Quoting LazyTrades
Ok so my equity went over 3% today after DD from Friday turned positive overall, I'm putting my profitable EAs on hold for now whilst I try a new one, I'll admit it's along the lines of Rob's one sided method mentioned above. I backtested it over the weekend and whilst it didn't produce any better results in terms of profit than my existing, the DD figures were better. Need to see how it plays out automatically and might need the margin, will see. Might change my handle to SpendHoursAtWeekendsCodingThenLazyTrades
Have run a live EA for 2 days but I can't easily keep track of all the trades it opens, will keep testing/optimising and try again later, it was profitable but the EA was a little chaotic for my liking, closed everything at BE. With EAs I need to factor in a PC shutdown as well, going to pause this for now.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,464
  • Aug 25, 2023 3:13am Aug 25, 2023 3:13am
One of the standout reveals of working with scripts recently has been how better they behave when an element of randomness is introduced in the entries, seems counter-intuitive at first, but all of the EAs improved when backtesting if the entries were controlled more by candle high/lows rather than a fixed grid. Longs, for example, seem to be more profitable if the entry is triggered by a break of the previous candle high rather than a simple grid, this in turn can be controlled by stipulating that a trade only occurs if there are no nearby trades.

Sorry I forgot this isn't an EA thread, currently long GU and NZDUSD, random entry, no prediction on where it's going.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,465
  • Edited 6:03pm Aug 28, 2023 5:48pm | Edited 6:03pm
Long GU and NZDUSD trades closed in tiny profit. Whilst I don't use any indicators for trading decisions I do use RSI as a basic filter for longs and shorts, other indicators are available. I have spent some time over the weekend backtesting RSI levels in 5% increments, over 1 and 3 years for each pair, and unsurprisingly results show shorts work best when RSI is above 30 ( I have specific values for each pair) and longs work best when below 40. My aim is not to find values which return best profit, but best profit to DD ratios.

Using a basic hedging EA, NZDUSD longs look risky at +20% DD - GBPUSD longs and shorts gave the second highest DD of 14%, all other pairs were below 10% long or short. This is all historical of course and past results are no guarantee etc. etc.

Short USDMXN.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,466
  • Aug 30, 2023 12:51pm Aug 30, 2023 12:51pm
Lots of trades today, a small few still open, equity @ +3.47% = weekly average of 0.58%, slowly increasing lot sizes but mindful of margin requirements, wish I had £1M to trade with.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,467
  • Aug 31, 2023 9:42am Aug 31, 2023 9:42am
Other TPs hit but long EJ & UJ so waiting game employed on these two, EAs dropping buy stops on the way down.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,468
  • Aug 31, 2023 11:47am Aug 31, 2023 11:47am
Quoting LazyTrades
Other TPs hit but long EJ & UJ so waiting game employed on these two, EAs dropping buy stops on the way down.
I'll be collecting some swap tonight for sure
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,469
  • Sep 1, 2023 12:45pm Sep 1, 2023 12:45pm
So this week will end in DD as lots of trades open and it's just something to get used to with this style of trading. I've been out most of the day and just left the EAs to their thing, some trades closed at TP and some in the waiting pool, short MXNUSD, long EURJPY, short NZDUSD, short EU and long GU. Have a good weekend all.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,470
  • Sep 1, 2023 12:53pm Sep 1, 2023 12:53pm
Quoting LazyTrades
So this week will end in DD as lots of trades open and it's just something to get used to with this style of trading. I've been out most of the day and just left the EAs to their thing, some trades closed at TP and some in the waiting pool, short MXNUSD, long EURJPY, short NZDUSD, short EU and long GU. Have a good weekend all.
Yes DD something you have to get used to but if you closed all your trades now overall will you be in profit...
  • #2,471
  • Sep 1, 2023 1:38pm Sep 1, 2023 1:38pm
I’ve been in profit for many weeks and have yet to drop below deposit level although prepared to do so if required. The problem is as soon as you increase lot size you have to get used to new levels of DD but backtesting has prepared me for this. I just look at losing trades as profits yet to mature or take the hit when all trades in profit overall. I honestly don’t think you can get used to the mindset unless you are trading live IMO.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,472
  • Sep 1, 2023 1:57pm Sep 1, 2023 1:57pm
Quoting LazyTrades
I’ve been in profit for many weeks and have yet to drop below deposit level although prepared to do so if required. The problem is as soon as you increase lot size you have to get used to new levels of DD but backtesting has prepared me for this. I just look at losing trades as profits yet to mature or take the hit when all trades in profit overall. I honestly don’t think you can get used to the mindset unless you are trading live IMO.
I always refer to the first page, it ain't easy total mind set change something we've all got to get used to if you want to trade this way, maybe only increase lot size when really comfortable with it, i've not change my lot size as happy with the profit i'm making, something every individual has to deal with...
  • #2,473
  • Sep 2, 2023 3:37am Sep 2, 2023 3:37am
i change my lotsize when the equity, that is, when the closed trades minus the open trades show a profit.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,474
  • Sep 2, 2023 8:50am Sep 2, 2023 8:50am
The reality is, whilst I'm comfortable in everything I'm doing to a point, there's some elements you just can't get a feel for until you are live trading with real money and that's where I am, 95% there I would say. Another good reason to post findings as it's always helpful to see your own thought processes and hopefully help others of course.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,475
  • Sep 4, 2023 2:25pm Sep 4, 2023 2:25pm
Just waiting at the side of the river bank for now, waiting for the fish to come along.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,476
  • Sep 4, 2023 6:42pm Sep 4, 2023 6:42pm
hedging as we know it should be best practiced with physical, tangible assets.
and not liquid assets. carrying out hedged operation on liquid instruments/assets that inversely
complement each other won't produce the optimal net returns desired, long-term. (my opinion)
  • #2,477
  • Edited 3:35pm Sep 5, 2023 3:25pm | Edited 3:35pm
Quoting Sector-Five
hedging as we know it should be best practiced with physical, tangible assets. and not liquid assets. carrying out hedged operation on liquid instruments/assets that inversely complement each other won't produce the optimal net returns desired, long-term. (my opinion)
Welcome to FF and thank you for your input SF, in the interests of wider knowledge for all, is the opinion above based on any data/factual information, or is it a belief derived from some empirical research, interested to know, thanks in advance.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,478
  • Sep 7, 2023 9:43am Sep 7, 2023 9:43am
Still fishing, have quite a few rods in play now.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,479
  • Sep 8, 2023 8:49am Sep 8, 2023 8:49am
from a macro perspective, yes they are.
retail might say otherwise.
  • #2,480
  • Sep 12, 2023 5:10pm Sep 12, 2023 5:10pm
Ok so last two weeks have been a good learning curve, 3% DD last week turned into a 4% profit this week. Would have been so easy to let the head demons take over but probably the most important element of trading this way is patience, controversially I don't think entries even make a huge difference.

Equity = +4.07% = +0.51% weekly average.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
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