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Finally Naked

  • #101
  • Feb 22, 2007 8:16pm Feb 22, 2007 8:16pm
Quoting Samuri
Naked and fun!
I like what I see! Care to share some of your personal input into the trading naked concept to us?
Just1pip
  • #102
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:17am Feb 23, 2007 12:17am
Quoting Just1Pip
I like what I see! Care to share some of your personal input into the trading naked concept to us?
Just1pip
I need more time getting used to this new style. Until then, I do intend to share some of my naked outcomings with you all. Let us wait for a while.

For the moving average mentioned by luqmanz, IMHO, it is not naked yet.
I decided not to use it a long time ago, but I still can remember how excited I was finding the wonderful EMA89 (almost in any timeframe). But now, I think for a daytrade system, it is by far useless.
凹凸 only
  • #103
  • Mar 20, 2007 12:55pm Mar 20, 2007 12:55pm
looking over the continuing saga of thong or no-thong, i make more pips by simple observance of price action at popular/intellegent levels of S/R. Boy i used to have so many squiggly MAs on my charts, one search through my posts will verify that. They looked pretty though one thing i noticed in my personality is that they often times would stiffle my tradding. I'd look at the past patter, see price heading toward XmovingAverage and say; "it did this in the past, it'l do it this time too" only to see it do it's own thing. I know that the lines are painted due to price action and not the other way around. . . it's just so tempting to think the MA comes before the PA at times.

: ) Thom
  • #104
  • Mar 20, 2007 2:06pm Mar 20, 2007 2:06pm
I'm trading without any indicators about 2 month ago and i should say: Man, what a waste of time the fuc*ing indicators is.
People think that indicators will show the entry points but when they do it's already late.
Looking for Price action, news, S/R and fib levels is all i do now and i am amazing with the results... The market seems to be another, without the indicators you pay full atention at the market and you begin to understand him (him?).
I know there's a bunch of people who doesn't agree with me, and thats ok. I just want to they don't get me wrong. I just give my oppinion.

Let's see what happens tomorrow. Good luck for all

(sorry about my english).
No Brain, no Gain.
  • #105
  • Mar 20, 2007 2:59pm Mar 20, 2007 2:59pm
Quoting Samuri
Naked and fun!
Impresive results, I am also atempting to trade naked, would you care to share the method you use in your live trading?
  • #106
  • Mar 20, 2007 3:06pm Mar 20, 2007 3:06pm
I think your talking about the keep it simple stupid plan. I'm still working on it myself but WOW has my trading come along since I've focused on price. What do indicators intrepret anyway??? PRICE. Become your own indicator!
  • #107
  • Mar 22, 2007 9:06am Mar 22, 2007 9:06am
IMHO, forex is about attitude to life, about displine, about patience, about courage, about persisting to what you believe, and only a tiny little bit about technical skills.

Maybe (in fact true) we are not clever enough to master those fancy technics, but apart from that, we all have our individual wonders inside. Try not lose your way burried by the indicators.

Still, I do believe 95% of the participants will finally proofed to be losers, because they are borned to be.

Are we one of them?
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凹凸 only
  • #108
  • Mar 22, 2007 2:15pm Mar 22, 2007 2:15pm
Quoting Samuri
On the contrary, in the daytrade basis, I never try to mentally do anything, just wait for the result, limit or stop.

And I do revert as the system signals.

This is a live account by the way. And of course, this month is a harvest month for the system.
Hi Samuri,

Great thread.. thank you Could you please share with us what is your system?

Regards
Igor
  • #109
  • Apr 13, 2007 10:49pm Apr 13, 2007 10:49pm
A trader can never forget that technical analysis is merely a mathematical behavoural psychology for the masses. Technical indicators have no magic predictive ability in and of themselves, there ability comes into play as others use the indicators and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Therefore, it makes sense to incorporate the most popular technical indicators that the masses use to trade to understand the thoughts/psychology of the masses.

That said, I will only look at such indicators when the price action is anomolous, or when it drops into "deadspace" where the chart patterns and price action make prediction extremely difficult, or when my psychological game isn't up to par.

When one is analyzing the chart consciously on points of technical indications, then one is limiting the potential of ones mind. Intuition is merely sub-conscious thought, which sub-conscious thought contains exponentially more information that can ever be contemplated in the conscious stream of thought. Which is to say, you have seen thousands upon thousands of charts and the price-actions tick by tick which formed those charts in ones experiences, when ones trading is intuitional, one is really processing and trading off of the enormity of these experiences; so consciously analyzing the sitiuation is to bring into play inferior thought processes, to limit oneself to a particular idea which is by defintion one of doubt/uncertainty (if there was no doubt, there would be no conscious thought of the matter).

Also, I should clarify, I say that in relation to reliance upon indicators, as stated, I think that they give you a definite advantage in that it allows you to predict the actions of the masses; even if you are a contrarian thinker, the predictive ability of the technicals as to mass behaviour is very useful...thus, I am saying that indicators should be used as a psycholgical tool, not as a point of analysis, but as something to be sub-consciously processed.
  • #110
  • Apr 14, 2007 1:27am Apr 14, 2007 1:27am
Reading this thread is reminiscent of the God-Atheist debate. The naked traders seem to have an attitude of : They don't believe in indicators, they think indicators are foolish, they think indicators have no use. That someone else's belief in indicators is wrong and that the truth is indicators are useless and foolish. Sort of like the way Atheist's think.

I would like to point out that Mr Trend made a joke that is at the heart of the issue. 'I don't even use charts anymore to trade.' Or something to that effect. That's the meat and potatoes. If you are still using a chart you are still using an indicator.

All indicators(most) are is calculations based off of five basic things found on charts. Price:open, close, high, low. Also used is number of time periods. Most every indicator is a hashing and rehashing of those basic values. People use volume, too, but that isn't available on price charts. Things like EW, Fibs and TLs aren't quite like other indicators but they are still basing their calculations on price history. So if you are reading a chart you are exposing yourself to those basic values and you are still using an indicator, the chart itself. All the commotion about using only price action and nothing else but price action is an indicator. All the ruckus about indicators are lagging, well, price action is lagging too. It's all a record of past price action. One tick ago is lagging, it's the last tick, not current.

Years ago when I first started studying forex I looked at a sample of three months worth of demo trading. I looked at every entry and recorded how many of them would have been in a profit at any point. Out of nearly 1000 demo trades I found only one, yes one trade that did not go positive at any point. Some went only a few pips negative and stayed positive from then on, some went a few pips positive then negative from then on. But overall I found that it did not make a difference whether you longed or shorted from any price point and that if you had enough margin to wait out the trade it eventually would be a gainer.

That inspired me to experiment with something. I called it my monkey method, because a monkey could do it. Without even looking at a chart I would enter a trade and set my limit at 75pips and my stop at 25pips and just let it run it's course. When my trade station was opening all I would do is flip a coin to decide whether I was going to go long or short. I did this in a separate demo for about two months. I was amazed at what transpired. My win to loss ratio was just under 50%, about 48%, and the account balance was up by around 300% after the two months. I could not believe it. What's funny is I never tried that experiment again and have not used that type of method in my trading.

All those two things showed me is that trading isn't about reading charts or coming up with a nifty method. It was risk to reward ratio management. It didn't matter whether you bought or sold, it didn't matter if you timed anything right, it wasn't about having the right system, even though those things can but not always help your overall success rate. We are still talking about a market that is 50/50, either you're right or you're wrong. All the research in the world might only help you by a few percentage points difference in the success ratio. I've had some real good runs where I was right 9 times out of ten. Then had some equally bad runs.

What made the difference was sticking to the limit/stop risk to reward ratio that allowed me to be wrong 2/3 times, right only once, yet still make money. Other than that all the research and study I do is to make other people believe this is harder than it looks and keep myself occupied with something to do.
  • #111
  • Apr 14, 2007 2:35am Apr 14, 2007 2:35am
I've gotta try that coin flip thing.

Quoting Pipsta
Reading this thread is reminiscent of the God-Atheist debate. The naked traders seem to have an attitude of : They don't believe in indicators, they think indicators are foolish, they think indicators have no use. That someone else's belief in indicators is wrong and that the truth is indicators are useless and foolish. Sort of like the way Atheist's think.

I would like to point out that Mr Trend made a joke that is at the heart of the issue. 'I don't even use charts anymore to trade.' Or something to that effect. That's the meat and potatoes. If you are still using a chart you are still using an indicator.

All indicators(most) are is calculations based off of five basic things found on charts. Price:open, close, high, low. Also used is number of time periods. Most every indicator is a hashing and rehashing of those basic values. People use volume, too, but that isn't available on price charts. Things like EW, Fibs and TLs aren't quite like other indicators but they are still basing their calculations on price history. So if you are reading a chart you are exposing yourself to those basic values and you are still using an indicator, the chart itself. All the commotion about using only price action and nothing else but price action is an indicator. All the ruckus about indicators are lagging, well, price action is lagging too. It's all a record of past price action. One tick ago is lagging, it's the last tick, not current.

Years ago when I first started studying forex I looked at a sample of three months worth of demo trading. I looked at every entry and recorded how many of them would have been in a profit at any point. Out of nearly 1000 demo trades I found only one, yes one trade that did not go positive at any point. Some went only a few pips negative and stayed positive from then on, some went a few pips positive then negative from then on. But overall I found that it did not make a difference whether you longed or shorted from any price point and that if you had enough margin to wait out the trade it eventually would be a gainer.

That inspired me to experiment with something. I called it my monkey method, because a monkey could do it. Without even looking at a chart I would enter a trade and set my limit at 75pips and my stop at 25pips and just let it run it's course. When my trade station was opening all I would do is flip a coin to decide whether I was going to go long or short. I did this in a separate demo for about two months. I was amazed at what transpired. My win to loss ratio was just under 50%, about 48%, and the account balance was up by around 300% after the two months. I could not believe it. What's funny is I never tried that experiment again and have not used that type of method in my trading.

All those two things showed me is that trading isn't about reading charts or coming up with a nifty method. It was risk to reward ratio management. It didn't matter whether you bought or sold, it didn't matter if you timed anything right, it wasn't about having the right system, even though those things can but not always help your overall success rate. We are still talking about a market that is 50/50, either you're right or you're wrong. All the research in the world might only help you by a few percentage points difference in the success ratio. I've had some real good runs where I was right 9 times out of ten. Then had some equally bad runs.

What made the difference was sticking to the limit/stop risk to reward ratio that allowed me to be wrong 2/3 times, right only once, yet still make money. Other than that all the research and study I do is to make other people believe this is harder than it looks and keep myself occupied with something to do.
  • #112
  • Jun 9, 2007 10:45pm Jun 9, 2007 10:45pm
Quoting linuxtroll
Alan Hull does not manage billion dollar funds?
Alan Hull
Good one! Sorry it took me so long to respond.
  • #113
  • Jun 9, 2007 11:54pm Jun 9, 2007 11:54pm
Just finished reading this thread, man this is great, does anyone have an EA for this strategy?
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #114
  • Jun 10, 2007 7:10am Jun 10, 2007 7:10am
Quoting Samuri
IMHO, forex is about attitude to life, about displine, about patience, about courage, about persisting to what you believe, and only a tiny little bit about technical skills.

Maybe (in fact true) we are not clever enough to master those fancy technics, but apart from that, we all have our individual wonders inside. Try not lose your way burried by the indicators.

Still, I do believe 95% of the participants will finally proofed to be losers, because they are borned to be.

Are we one of them?
I think a majority of the 95% who are proved to be losers are also the type to bury themselves under indicators. There's nothing wrong with a little "window dressing" on your charts, but when you have more than three or four indicators, you're definitely trying to hide some flaw... and I think the "naked trading" analogy still works here: if you have more indicators than articles of clothing you wear on typical day, then something's wrong.
  • #115
  • Jun 10, 2007 7:12am Jun 10, 2007 7:12am
Quoting Pipsta
That inspired me to experiment with something. I called it my monkey method, because a monkey could do it. Without even looking at a chart I would enter a trade and set my limit at 75pips and my stop at 25pips and just let it run it's course. When my trade station was opening all I would do is flip a coin to decide whether I was going to go long or short. I did this in a separate demo for about two months. I was amazed at what transpired. My win to loss ratio was just under 50%, about 48%, and the account balance was up by around 300% after the two months. I could not believe it. What's funny is I never tried that experiment again and have not used that type of method in my trading.
Why did you stop the monkey method?
  • #116
  • Jun 10, 2007 7:49am Jun 10, 2007 7:49am
Quoting Pipsta
Reading this thread is reminiscent of the God-Atheist debate. The naked traders seem to have an attitude of : They don't believe in indicators, they think indicators are foolish, they think indicators have no use. That someone else's belief in indicators is wrong and that the truth is indicators are useless and foolish. Sort of like the way Atheist's think.

I would like to point out that Mr Trend made a joke that is at the heart of the issue. 'I don't even use charts anymore to trade.' Or something to that effect. That's the meat and potatoes. If you are still using a chart you are still using an indicator.

All indicators(most) are is calculations based off of five basic things found on charts. Price:open, close, high, low. Also used is number of time periods. Most every indicator is a hashing and rehashing of those basic values. People use volume, too, but that isn't available on price charts. Things like EW, Fibs and TLs aren't quite like other indicators but they are still basing their calculations on price history. So if you are reading a chart you are exposing yourself to those basic values and you are still using an indicator, the chart itself. All the commotion about using only price action and nothing else but price action is an indicator. All the ruckus about indicators are lagging, well, price action is lagging too. It's all a record of past price action. One tick ago is lagging, it's the last tick, not current.

Years ago when I first started studying forex I looked at a sample of three months worth of demo trading. I looked at every entry and recorded how many of them would have been in a profit at any point. Out of nearly 1000 demo trades I found only one, yes one trade that did not go positive at any point. Some went only a few pips negative and stayed positive from then on, some went a few pips positive then negative from then on. But overall I found that it did not make a difference whether you longed or shorted from any price point and that if you had enough margin to wait out the trade it eventually would be a gainer.

That inspired me to experiment with something. I called it my monkey method, because a monkey could do it. Without even looking at a chart I would enter a trade and set my limit at 75pips and my stop at 25pips and just let it run it's course. When my trade station was opening all I would do is flip a coin to decide whether I was going to go long or short. I did this in a separate demo for about two months. I was amazed at what transpired. My win to loss ratio was just under 50%, about 48%, and the account balance was up by around 300% after the two months. I could not believe it. What's funny is I never tried that experiment again and have not used that type of method in my trading.

All those two things showed me is that trading isn't about reading charts or coming up with a nifty method. It was risk to reward ratio management. It didn't matter whether you bought or sold, it didn't matter if you timed anything right, it wasn't about having the right system, even though those things can but not always help your overall success rate. We are still talking about a market that is 50/50, either you're right or you're wrong. All the research in the world might only help you by a few percentage points difference in the success ratio. I've had some real good runs where I was right 9 times out of ten. Then had some equally bad runs.

What made the difference was sticking to the limit/stop risk to reward ratio that allowed me to be wrong 2/3 times, right only once, yet still make money. Other than that all the research and study I do is to make other people believe this is harder than it looks and keep myself occupied with something to do.
Pipster:
The Monkey method you tried is interesting. Did you always use the same currency pair? Did you wait for one transaction to complete in profit target of 75 or SL of 25 before opening another position? Did you always just flip a coin?
  • #117
  • Jun 10, 2007 10:58am Jun 10, 2007 10:58am
Quoting bluebuddha
Why did you stop the monkey method?
The coin flipping thing is a myth, it was in a old book by Van Tharp from a few years ago that if you just manage risk and take random entries you can still make money, this was before the markets got so volatile. I have read about guys backtesting this on the trading blox forum, you will lose, I have done MT4 backtests and the win rate is about 20%, if only it was that simple, risk reward is more complex than simply setting stops & take profits.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #118
  • Jun 10, 2007 12:16pm Jun 10, 2007 12:16pm
The big issue is just the nature of variance underlying the pair. It's usually assumed Gaussian and history and position independent, but without much stats to back it up (the research is usualy done on the very large scale, where the peculiarities of FX tend to wash out.)

Take a simple, illustrative, but completely made up example. (You'll have to calculate your own stats, I don't do this for free). Suppose those resistance lines/round number ideas that float around are true, which would imply that at such a value if the price touched the resistance and went in one direction a little bit, then it has a much better than even chance of continuing in the same direction for a little longer. Putting numbers on it, suppose it's $CAD as it hits 1.0000

Now suppose that at such a big round number, $CAD has a 50% chance of hitting 1.0025 before 0.9975, and vv. In other words we don't know if it will bounce, or shoot through. Further suppose that the psychology of traders is such that once they see it's already moved 25p, they'll jump on the bandwagon and push it another 50, so that the likelihood of it actually going back to par (from say 1.0025) is only .1, compared with a probability of going next to 1.0075 of .9. Then your expectation of profit on a coin flip that said "go long" at 1.000 is Expectation(of going up 25 and up another 50) + Expectation( of going up 25 and back to 1.0000) - Expectation(of hitting the stop loss), which equals ->

0.5*0.9*75 +0.5*0.1*0 - 0.5*25

or around 9p. Of course, if these stats were valid, then an intelligent trader would wait until the price was made up or down 25p, at which time they would place their bet (continue 50 pips at 0.9 vs reversion at 0.1), giving an expected gain of .9*50-.1*25, around 42p ....

There's similar versions for big entry times (open & close of markets for example), but I think this roughly expresses the flavour of what's happening....The biggest issue here is determining the length of continuation moves, and short term deterministic behaviour in an otherwise random process. Plus the fact that we (individual investors) are now up against much more sophisticated hedgefunds that now use math based trading, not the old Econ101 models....
  • #119
  • Jun 10, 2007 1:34pm Jun 10, 2007 1:34pm
FWIW, the round number/support/resistance issue isn't absolutely necessary, either. For those with some programming skills, just write up a little program where the expected price change is equal to some small constant times the last price change, with a suitable random number generator. i.e.

x(n+1) = x(n) +(x(n)-x(n-1))*k +v*random_normal().

The underlined part says that the price is expected to move k times whatever it moved last (iirc in a number of applications k was around .7), while the bold part just gives you a Gaussian variable with variance v**2. It's a very simple model of a trader looking at a chart, seeing that it's gone up, and believing that it will continue to do so....Setting k=0 gives you the Econ101 model.
  • #120
  • Jun 10, 2007 1:59pm Jun 10, 2007 1:59pm
I always trade naked, usually naked and standing up in my bed room looking at Forex numbers, make me dizzy and i lay down a lil
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