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Proof That Forex is Random video

  • #181
  • Jul 6, 2021 8:20pm Jul 6, 2021 8:20pm
Quoting MackS10
It is not random.
Hello traders
I have to correct myself. The market is both random and not and to profit you need an edge. This edge will keep you going in the right direction no matter what the market throws at you.
Previously I mentioned it was not random but the problem I faced was that I thought predicting a direction was possible, this can't be further from the truth. To profit one must remain humble and believe our position entered is wrong until proven profitable.
Give that a good thought!

Cheers and happy trading~
  • #182
  • Sep 15, 2023 9:15am Sep 15, 2023 9:15am
Dear traders

I have to correct myself yet again. Above i wrote "The market is both random and not and to profit you need an edge'. Simply the market cannot be both, if there is a hint of random in it then it is considered such.
After long years of study and profitability at last. I conclude, yes the market is random.

Wish you all a prosperous year ahead~
  • #183
  • Sep 16, 2023 5:01pm Sep 16, 2023 5:01pm
Quoting goose4
A very interesting video. Enjoy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZdBzFcvwQY
Car shop locations are random but, still, you can find one, and once found you can get a car.

Job offers appear randomly, but still, you can just sit and wait for one that meets your criteria and get a job.

People paths are random, but still, you can sit on the street, wait for someone you like to appear (randomly) and ask for a date.

The event may be random but, once it happens, you can utilize it.

A random function just does not always give the same output when it receives a specific input. Nothing more, nothing less.

And every single random variable can be analyzed, classified, evaluated and predicted with well-known accuracy. Why not markets? Because potato?

Just an example of how dealing with probabilistic events: think in the next random uptrend of approximately 40 daily candles. It will occur randomly. Once it happens, you buy below the open every single day and most of the days you end up above your entry in average and randomly. Get the median ATR and close above 2/3 of it, besides. Close 2/3 below of it. Backtest it 1000 times and get the probability of doing it right. Do it often to detect deviations in how price regimes work.

Establish if your strategy is profitable and get the exact probabilty. That will tell you your expected average return. Once you find something positive, you have found how to trade with randomness.
  • #184
  • Sep 18, 2023 7:41am Sep 18, 2023 7:41am
Exactly scherzi!

We can't assume that randomness cannot be traded profitably. Our job as traders is to find an edge as in the daily candle example you mentioned.

Cheers~
  • #185
  • Sep 19, 2023 1:28pm Sep 19, 2023 1:28pm
Quoting MackS10
Exactly scherzi! We can't assume that randomness cannot be traded profitably. Our job as traders is to find an edge as in the daily candle example you mentioned. Cheers~
Yes, I try to express how I see it.

I have been using extensively simulators to sim trade and tests all the setups I could think would be good (and some wrong too) with them and also with simple statistical tools like R or Python pandas.

Once you find a set up and you retest it with historical data, it is plain to see if it is profitable or not, how often and under what circumstances. That is a reason why I think, also (off-topic) that if a financial service or product is not guaranted, it means they do not know actually the stats and are gambling with your money.

Regards
  • #186
  • Sep 21, 2023 12:45pm Sep 21, 2023 12:45pm
Quoting MackS10
Exactly scherzi! We can't assume that randomness cannot be traded profitably. Our job as traders is to find an edge as in the daily candle example you mentioned. Cheers~
And that is the problem, finding that edge A lof of traders think they have it, but they don't.
  • #187
  • Sep 26, 2023 10:17am Sep 26, 2023 10:17am
Quoting YoMoney
{quote} And that is the problem, finding that edge A lof of traders think they have it, but they don't.
Yes, some few may find an edge. Once found then you must have the discipline to follow with no greed and/or revenge.

All the best!
  • #188
  • Sep 26, 2023 10:28am Sep 26, 2023 10:28am
Planning and following a strategy is the way, however still random because you don't know the outcome of any of your trades. By following your tested strategy however you are managing risk/reward. It will put the odds in your favour.

For example you take the flip of a coin to enter, so long as you place your sl and tp properly you will still come out on top. I encourage anyone trying to learn to trade profitably to simply toss a coin and take head/tails as long/short. Follow by managing the trade as best as possible and see how even a random entry can provide profit.

Once you master this procedure (100 trades plus on a live account) you will then see the power of a trading strategy, now you have an edge

Cheers~
  • #189
  • Sep 26, 2023 3:05pm Sep 26, 2023 3:05pm
Quoting MackS10
Planning and following a strategy is the way, however still random because you don't know the outcome of any of your trades. By following your tested strategy however you are managing risk/reward. It will put the odds in your favour. For example you take the flip of a coin to enter, so long as you place your sl and tp properly you will still come out on top. I encourage anyone trying to learn to trade profitably to simply toss a coin and take head/tails as long/short. Follow by managing the trade as best as possible and see how even a random entry...
This is the kind of thing that Mark Douglas said, and sent a hundred thousand traders around the bend to check their mindset.
  • #190
  • Oct 9, 2023 3:30am Oct 9, 2023 3:30am
i explain it this way
to an untrained eye the market behaves and looks very chaotic and it’s behaviour appears to be quite random
similar to the fisherman on a river bank watching the chaotic movements of the river he is fishing

the water flows in a chaotic random way as it passes and the fisherman questions why today he has no fish he will say it’s random

the inexperienced trader looking at a t/f on a chart who is doing the same thing as yesterday is having losses today and believes it’s all random

now the smart informed fisherman has dug deeper and understands that this random flowing river has certain rules and is effected from variables ,water temperature,water pressure,colour ,is the water level dropping or rising, weather conditions,are they holding water back at the locks effecting flows.all these things and more effect the feeding habits of the fish
the more knowledge of your subject the less random it becomes
  • #191
  • Oct 23, 2023 7:09pm Oct 23, 2023 7:09pm
Quoting diceman555
i explain it this way to an untrained eye the market behaves and looks very chaotic and it’s behaviour appears to be quite random similar to the fisherman on a river bank watching the chaotic movements of the river he is fishing the water flows in a chaotic random way as it passes and the fisherman questions why today he has no fish he will say it’s random the inexperienced trader looking at a t/f on a chart who is doing the same thing as yesterday is having losses today and believes it’s all random now the smart informed fisherman has dug deeper...
That's well put diceman555!

All the best fellows~
  • #192
  • Oct 23, 2023 8:30pm Oct 23, 2023 8:30pm
If some of you watched a tick chart for a week you might realize some shit. But that would go against the mysticism many want to indulge in
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #193
  • Oct 24, 2023 1:52am Oct 24, 2023 1:52am
Quoting nubcake
If some of you watched a tick chart for a week you might realize some shit. But that would go against the mysticism many want to indulge in
Hi, what do you mean?
  • #194
  • Oct 24, 2023 1:58am Oct 24, 2023 1:58am
Quoting scherzi
{quote} Hi, what do you mean?
Let me rephrase it so it's clearer:

If some of you watched a tick chart for a week you might realize some shit. But that would go against the mysticism many want to indulge in
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #195
  • Oct 24, 2023 3:07am Oct 24, 2023 3:07am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Let me rephrase it so it's clearer: If some of you watched a tick chart for a week you might realize some shit. But that would go against the mysticism many want to indulge in

Sorry, I didn't realize you were speaking about people the first time I read your sentence.

Cheers.
  • #196
  • Jan 2, 2024 10:13am Jan 2, 2024 10:13am
It seems to me that many traders have such thoughts that the forex market is random and does not depend on any macroeconomic events.
But it seems to me that everything is much more complicated than it seems at first glance. And markets seem random because there are a lot of participants in them. Sellers and buyers. That's what makes price movements so diverse.
Besides, even if forex markets are completely random, our task is to be statistically successful in at least 51% of trades. Then the overall score will be positive.
And for this you need good trading strategy.
  • #197
  • Last Post: Dec 31, 2024 8:45pm Dec 31, 2024 8:45pm
I just like to get high and listen to him say "Sweet Spot" over and over....... What we do in the shadows style...
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