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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #3,941
  • Jun 8, 2007 11:12am Jun 8, 2007 11:12am
Quoting the_wizard
I took this pin bar. First trade in weeks. It ended up losing.

If you count four back you will see another pin bar, that triggered and then lost, too.
I might look at it like this wizard--if three straight pinbars can't push the price down, we're obviously in a short consolidation period. Often consolidations are a 'market breather' for a trend continuation, in this case up...
  • #3,942
  • Jun 8, 2007 11:17am Jun 8, 2007 11:17am
Quoting raczekfx
I don't trade this pair, but if I did, I would not take any short trades against last week's BU bar. Preservation of capital is one of the keys....
Why fighting the trend? With an Kiwi's interest rate of 8%, it's safer to wait for pullback and go with a trend again...
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  • #3,943
  • Jun 8, 2007 11:21am Jun 8, 2007 11:21am
So slowely coming along, three consecutive profitable weeks now following only J16 PA...woohoo
A few setups Ive noticed on weekly and daily charts: BEOB on weekly gbpjpy, cable and eurusd, as well as dblhc on daily usdjpy and a BUOB on weekly usdchf

have a nice weekend everyone, Raz
ps, wizard youre still my hero, keep your chin up
Never say never.
  • #3,944
  • Jun 8, 2007 11:54am Jun 8, 2007 11:54am
Quoting JoshDance
I might look at it like this wizard--if three straight pinbars can't push the price down, we're obviously in a short consolidation period. Often consolidations are a 'market breather' for a trend continuation, in this case up...
I agree with you Josh but this wasn't known until after the fact.

At the third pin bar, the setup looked good.

The market duly moved through the low of the pin bar by a good deal, triggering the short and just as it was building up some steam, turned around and reversed back up.
  • #3,945
  • Jun 8, 2007 11:55am Jun 8, 2007 11:55am
Quoting vlazaf
It's beauty lies in it's simplicity! Wonderful post!
Concentrate on only these 3 pictures with a fair MM system and you are onto a winner.
How many pairs are you concurrently scanning at any one time mbqb11?
The best advice I remember getting is to concentrate on certain PA setups at a time. The thing that held me back the most was seeing PA setups everywhere, because we are just reading price. So it is fairly easy to make assumptions at any one time. This is a hard way to make money, in the beginning. So I started to work on just certain formations, and slowly add things to my arsenal. And pins still remain my best weapon.
You are correct sir MM is key!

I currently watch 19 pairs.

Enjoy the weekend,
Mike
  • #3,946
  • Jun 8, 2007 2:29pm Jun 8, 2007 2:29pm
...but eurusd is showing macd divergence on daily...where are we going?
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Never say never.
  • #3,947
  • Jun 8, 2007 2:55pm Jun 8, 2007 2:55pm
Quoting the_wizard
I took this pin bar. First trade in weeks. It ended up losing.

If you count four back you will see another pin bar, that triggered and then lost, too.
AHAH~!
the major problem with this strategy is that people use it the wrong way, I personally will NOT trade against such a strong trend until i see a reversal pattern or something more concrete, In other words, dont just sell becuse it looked like a pinbar forming. Wait until it has formed and people started to trade it then u enter, dont be the first to get in and get fak
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #3,948
  • Jun 9, 2007 1:56am Jun 9, 2007 1:56am
Quoting razldazl
...but eurusd is showing macd divergence on daily...where are we going?
Interesting chart, i am currently positioned long @ 3349 on this pair, 1st target of 3420, stops are near previous lows.
  • #3,949
  • Jun 9, 2007 7:51am Jun 9, 2007 7:51am
Quoting razldazl
...but eurusd is showing macd divergence on daily...where are we going?

Hi Raz,

I am looking at the same charts I have on MT4 through Interbank and I do not show the divergence that you are showing on MACD would you mind sharing what settings you are using?

Thanks,

Steve
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #3,950
  • Jun 9, 2007 10:39am Jun 9, 2007 10:39am
Quoting Trader_V
Hi Raz,

I am looking at the same charts I have on MT4 through Interbank and I do not show the divergence that you are showing on MACD would you mind sharing what settings you are using?

Thanks,

Steve
Hey Steve,
Im using the settings 5, 13, 1, which originally came from the macd indicator used on the Philnel 4hr Macd strat. I guess everyone uses different settings but these work well enough for picking up on divergence, have a look at this daily jappy chart, and the macd divergence, it really gave a nice hint...
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Never say never.
  • #3,951
  • Jun 9, 2007 10:46am Jun 9, 2007 10:46am
I zoomed in for you because it was hard to see what I was talking about, this looks better, have a great weekend, Raz
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Click to Enlarge Name: jappy.jpg Size: 53 KB
Never say never.
  • #3,952
  • Jun 9, 2007 11:31am Jun 9, 2007 11:31am
Quoting razldazl
I zoomed in for you because it was hard to see what I was talking about, this looks better, have a great weekend, Raz

Raz,

Thanks for the quick response. I have added this to some practice charts so I can get a feel for it. Looks pretty responsive.

Hope you have a great weekend as well. Now I am off to get my 18 holes in and work on my tan

Steve
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #3,953
  • Jun 9, 2007 7:05pm Jun 9, 2007 7:05pm
I just wanted to throw this chart out there again for some opinions! I see a PB and divergence. Anyone have anything else to add. I'm not sure if this is a good signal to short or if I'm missing something here. Happy Trading!
Attached Image
  • #3,954
  • Jun 9, 2007 9:40pm Jun 9, 2007 9:40pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
I just wanted to throw this chart out there again for some opinions! I see a PB and divergence. Anyone have anything else to add. I'm not sure if this is a good signal to short or if I'm missing something here. Happy Trading!
AUDUSD MN, Last month was I4B and price breaks up
AUDUSD W1, Last week was BUOB and price breaks up
EURAUD W1, Last week was BEOB and price breaks down
EURAUD D1, Yesterday was failed potential PB and price goes down

AUDUSD and EURAUD were negative correlated, so when EURAUD D1 PB failed, we need to be careful, while higher TF prove uptrend.

If it works, make sure you know it's retracement of uptrend.
  • #3,955
  • Jun 10, 2007 1:55am Jun 10, 2007 1:55am
Quoting razldazl
...but eurusd is showing macd divergence on daily...where are we going?
That's not quite divergence in the manor I would look for a reversal. You need two finished peaks or dips to line up, preferable three. Generally when I see divergence I don't really think reversal as much as a slowing trend, often the macd is just coming down as it must eventually, to gather momentum for another movement. That being said a slowing trend is a good place to look for a reversal, but it doesn't guarantee it will happen.


Quoting Tw0eleven
I just wanted to throw this chart out there again for some opinions! I see a PB and divergence. Anyone have anything else to add. I'm not sure if this is a good signal to short or if I'm missing something here. Happy Trading!
I already shorted this one from 30-80, I actually got back in at 40 (ya greed) It's a nice pin bar. But aud is in a strong trend, although it is a steep trend which is more likely to break. Also the 50 isn't the greatest resistance level and with strong fundamentals it's likely a more risky trade for me.
  • #3,956
  • Jun 10, 2007 2:26am Jun 10, 2007 2:26am
[quote=shadeslay;1462737]That's not quite divergence in the manor I would look for a reversal. You need two finished peaks or dips to line up, preferable three.
Ok, I was being lazy not drawing in the line on the chart, is this what you mean? (See chart) If not, can you tell me what Im doing wrong please? Thanks for the input...its funny, sometimes doing it wrong gives better results

Generally when I see divergence I don't really think reversal as much as a slowing trend, often the macd is just coming down as it must eventually, to gather momentum for another movement. That being said a slowing trend is a good place to look for a reversal, but it doesn't guarantee it will happen.

Yeah, I agree, really I use it as a caution signal, in this case we have a BEOB on weekly eur so it might mean that we are going to see some kind of pullback first...what do you think? Thanks a lot for the input, I really appreciate it, Raz
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Never say never.
  • #3,957
  • Jun 10, 2007 2:41am Jun 10, 2007 2:41am
Quoting Tw0eleven
I just wanted to throw this chart out there again for some opinions! I see a PB and divergence. Anyone have anything else to add. I'm not sure if this is a good signal to short or if I'm missing something here. Happy Trading!
Hi Twoeleven,
I took this trade on demo, from the same daily pin. I see the divergence on macd but look at something, on the daily chart the last macd bar closed higher than the second last, while the last daily bar on the actual chart closed lower than the second last. Can somebody tell me what they think about this? I dont know how significant it is Twoeleven, but you would think that the macd should have closed lower unless its going to start going back up again? Hard to know on these counter trend trades and maybe Im starting to see things take care everyone, Raz
Never say never.
  • #3,958
  • Jun 10, 2007 6:12am Jun 10, 2007 6:12am
just remeber, that a market making new highs or low nearly ALWAYS shows momentum divergences...one of the four cardinal principles in TA is that mometum preceeds price...in other words, when a market does make a new momentum high, the price high is yet to come
  • #3,959
  • Jun 10, 2007 11:14am Jun 10, 2007 11:14am
Quoting mbqb11
Just as an added note, for something I observe personally. There are 3 major types of pins IMO.

You have:

1. Pins that are countertrend, after large moves up or down, where one feels liek they are going against the longer term trend- such as the aud/usd (if it closes today as is)

see pic 1

2. Then you have those pins that go with the trend(short or longer term) In this case a short term down trend, but that doesn't occur on a retrace, kinda just sticks out there(looks sideways). These pins I never play anymore(not that you can't).

see pic 2

3. Then you have my personal fav, when you get a nice retrace on the current/or longer term trend and a pin forms where it creates space away from the previous trend. Meaning it retraced, but not with a sharp move.

see pic 3, eur chf


Just some observations

Mike
Hi Mike,
Would you say gbpjpy has the makings of your favourite retrace pin bar? It has pierced fib confluence areas and has quite a longish nose...thanks for your input, it helps to be able to focus on specific setups as you said take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #3,960
  • Jun 10, 2007 11:51am Jun 10, 2007 11:51am
Quoting mason
AUDUSD MN, Last month was I4B and price breaks up
AUDUSD W1, Last week was BUOB and price breaks up
EURAUD W1, Last week was BEOB and price breaks down
EURAUD D1, Yesterday was failed potential PB and price goes down

AUDUSD and EURAUD were negative correlated, so when EURAUD D1 PB failed, we need to be careful, while higher TF prove uptrend.

If it works, make sure you know it's retracement of uptrend.
Thanks Mason, I was just looking at my charts again. The Aud/Usd daily chart has a PB, but I'm affraid that the open and close price are too close to the middle of the bar. Also, I checked out the 4hr chart and there was a PB(nose down) suggesting price going up which would follow the trend. And I've been using a 4hr chart method prior to the PB method which is signalling a long...so I may skip this trade for fear of a "false" PB on the A/U daily. In fact, I'm considering going long.
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