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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #2,261
  • Jun 8, 2007 4:19pm Jun 8, 2007 4:19pm
Quoting BeachBum
I love backtesting................

OK, not really, but I do learn a lot!
I'll drink to that one! :-) I did extensive backtesting of a strategy recently and learned so much in the process, despite the painstaking detail that must go into backtesting.

BB, I'm going to renew my fozzy daily backtesting (got started last week, was disrupted by non-trading events in my life). May I ask, how did you handle reversals in your testing? On a cross on the next bar or two in the other direction, assuming your SL is not hit, did you close and reverse your position?
  • #2,262
  • Jun 8, 2007 4:20pm Jun 8, 2007 4:20pm
Quoting bogdan
I am sorry to post this but I recently discovered that this FOZZY METHOD is nothing but a ... (blah blah blah)

See ya.
Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out! :-)
  • #2,263
  • Jun 8, 2007 4:44pm Jun 8, 2007 4:44pm
Quoting JoshDance
Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out! :-)
...............................
  • #2,264
  • Jun 8, 2007 4:45pm Jun 8, 2007 4:45pm
Very interesting posts...........

Thought i'd throw my penny in if anyones interested...

i , like a lot of you, was finding it difficult to totally summarise the discretionary bit so rather than babble on i will attempt to post what i deem as my solution.well it works for me

this is a trade i closed out today for +267 on gbp.

the chart consists of

Mouteki trend lines

a price action channel(5sma high 5sma low all on close, filters ranging price beautifully)

rsi 8 ma 8

am still learning to perfect the art of posting charts...

so if anyone wants to set this up an either post or just have a look at it ...

Might look a bit busy for some but to me it makes sense.

The price action channel acts as a range filter and you will also notice that as the price leaves the channel i.e the new candle opens either above or below the channel but also in the direction of the trade you wish to pursue.

the Mouteki trend lines act as you would imagine..

and the rsi/ma is confirmation ( fozzy )

For me i find the whole fozzy thing just feels better with some PA analysis
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MoutekLineNextGenH1_v2.mq4   21 KB | 560 downloads
  • #2,265
  • Jun 8, 2007 4:50pm Jun 8, 2007 4:50pm
Quoting JoshDance
I'll drink to that one! Me too!:-) I did extensive backtesting of a strategy recently and learned so much in the process, despite the painstaking detail that must go into backtesting.

BB, I'm going to renew my fozzy daily backtesting (got started last week, was disrupted by non-trading events in my life). May I ask, how did you handle reversals in your testing? On a cross on the next bar or two in the other direction, assuming your SL is not hit, did you close and reverse your position?
Sorry if I didn't make this clear. Beginning 1 June 2006, I entered on the first cross and every subsequent cross allowing ALL trades to close at either T/P or S/L. No SAR trades! However, I did not enter on a new cross if I was still in a trade. Old trade must close before new trade entered. This meant I "skipped" a few crosses; these could have been winners or losers, didn't matter. I wanted a purely mechanical trading routine.

Cross
Enter
Close at T/P or S/L

Very simple, very mechanical. No discretion!
  • #2,266
  • Jun 8, 2007 4:53pm Jun 8, 2007 4:53pm
Backtested?

Quoting Ryecatcher
Very interesting posts...........

Thought i'd throw my penny in if anyones interested...

i , like a lot of you, was finding it difficult to totally summarise the discretionary bit so rather than babble on i will attempt to post what i deem as my solution.well it works for me

this is a trade i closed out today for +267 on gbp.

the chart consists of

Mouteki trend lines

a price action channel(5sma high 5sma low all on close, filters ranging price beautifully)

rsi 8 ma 8

am still learning to perfect the art of posting charts...

so if anyone wants to set this up an either post or just have a look at it ...

Might look a bit busy for some but to me it makes sense.

The price action channel acts as a range filter and you will also notice that as the price leaves the channel i.e the new candle opens either above or below the channel but also in the direction of the trade you wish to pursue.

the Mouteki trend lines act as you would imagine..

and the rsi/ma is confirmation ( fozzy )

For me i find the whole fozzy thing just feels better with some PA analysis
  • #2,267
  • Jun 8, 2007 4:53pm Jun 8, 2007 4:53pm
Quoting BeachBum
Sorry if I didn't make this clear. Beginning 1 June 2006, I entered on the first cross and every subsequent cross allowing ALL trades to close at either T/P or S/L. No SAR trades! However, I did not enter on a new cross if I was still in a trade. Old trade must close before new trade entered. This meant I "skipped" a few crosses; these could have been winners or losers, didn't matter. I wanted a purely mechanical trading routine.

Cross
Enter
Close at T/P or S/L

Very simple, very mechanical. No discretion!
So, take for example 1/26. Cross down at the close of this day, correct? We go short, and we're stopped out sometime during 1/29 (the next day, over the weekend). At the close of 1/29, we see the rsi has crossed up, indicating a long. We take the long, correct?
  • #2,268
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:00pm Jun 8, 2007 5:00pm
I'm going to upload my results, which are totally different from yours, BB. Bear in mind this was done over the course of 20 or 30 minutes with my pit bull sitting in my lap because he was scared of thunder ;-) I got totally different results, with an overall pip gain of 200. I'm attaching 4 images showing my trades. Magenta lines are losers, green lines are winners. Can you post your trades or at least give me an idea of what I'm doing differently from you? Granted, I'm using Alpari GMT+1 data which is probably a bit different from fxdd, but I don't see how we could have such a discrepency.

I had 60 trades, 28 losers and 22 winners, for a total of +200 pips. And that was with most losers being well into -40 pips, and giving a little leeway to about 3 winners which were right on the edge of +60. I should add, the vertical lines indicate the day the cross occurred, so obviously we enter at the opening of the next bar.

This has been my frustration with the method -- I see so much success but when I've backtested it's been disappointing! Please let's compare our testing differences and figure out how we differed! Later tomorrow perhaps I'll get an FXDD data feed and test again, so we eliminate that variable.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip eurusd-fozzy-06012006_06012007.zip   223 KB | 558 downloads
  • #2,269
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:00pm Jun 8, 2007 5:00pm
I should add that this is all my own work........................not!

so heres where some of the ideas came from...

oh and thanks to teb ,fozzy,mouteki,james 16.......you are awesome inspiration

thanks for my pips


Rye
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf TDI_1[1].pdf   254 KB | 651 downloads
  • #2,270
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:01pm Jun 8, 2007 5:01pm
Quoting JoshDance
So, take for example 1/26. Cross down at the close of this day, correct? We go short, and we're stopped out sometime during 1/29 (the next day, over the weekend). At the close of 1/29, we see the rsi has crossed up, indicating a long. We take the long, correct?
No, I have a cross on 1/25 that results in "just" 60 pips of profit, NO S/L. Then a new trade on 1/29.

We must have different brokers.

However, IF I had the scenario you describe above, I would have traded as you describe.
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  • #2,271
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:04pm Jun 8, 2007 5:04pm
Different brokers, different signals.............the above is a good example..................your loser is my winner!

I'll look at your work closely this weekend!

PS................my backtest took me over 3 hours, and I don't consider myself "slow"..............

Quoting JoshDance
I'm going to upload my results, which are totally different from yours, BB. Bear in mind this was done over the course of 20 or 30 minutes with my pit bull sitting in my lap because he was scared of thunder ;-) I got totally different results, with an overall pip gain of 200. I'm attaching 4 images showing my trades. Magenta lines are losers, green lines are winners. Can you post your trades or at least give me an idea of what I'm doing differently from you? Granted, I'm using Alpari GMT+1 data which is probably a bit different from fxdd, but I don't see how we could have such a discrepency.

I had 60 trades, 28 losers and 22 winners, for a total of +200 pips. And that was with most losers being well into -40 pips, and giving a little leeway to about 3 winners which were right on the edge of +60.

This has been my frustration with the method -- I see so much success but when I've backtested it's been disappointing! Please let's compare our testing differences and figure out how we differed! Later tomorrow perhaps I'll get an FXDD data feed and test again, so we eliminate that variable.
  • #2,272
  • Edited 5:21pm Jun 8, 2007 5:07pm | Edited 5:21pm
People have asked me what is my SL, what is my TP, do I do this... Do I do that. So I thought I would sit down and write a few lines.

I think the word discretionary is a perfect word for the Fozzy Method, at least the way I trade it.

I definately have an Entry which is the Fozzy crosses. Although today I could kick my discretionary ass for not taking the Cable and usd/chf... I would have been up over 200 pips just on those two over night trades......shame on me for opting out just because I made a discretionary decision..

Sometimes taking all crosses can be very stressful but like BeachBum said, you never know which one will put you in your place and which one will make your pip account grow.

As for SL I am now committed to only placing my SL at the high/low of the previous day's candle. I might get stopped out a few times but I think in the long run it will pay off. If I do have a large SL then I will compensate by reducing my lot size, therefore my potential loss will not be as great.

Now for the big one.....TP....I dont place a TP except for certain times.... I don't place a TP because in reality I, nor the market does not know if a trade will only bare you 1 pip or 100 pips or in the case of BeachBum 357 pips (per trade) So I choose not to limit my expecations and I go by either my gut, my nerves or in some cases...this is where I will put a TP in.... my charts are screaming at me telling me that there is magor resistance 40 pips away don't be a dumb ass and go place a TP........

This is my schedule for the trading day. At 5 pm west coast time I put in my trades. From 5pm to 11pm I watch them on and off. When I go to bed at 11pm I decide, do I take my profit and run or hang in there and let the Fozzy crosses do their thing. When I get up at about 6am the next day I will look to see what happened and almost always take my profit and close the trade. All of the profit thing for me has been and will be pure discretion and gut feeling.

I have tried to add other filter to keep me out of bad trades but for me I find I start to get the "deer in the head lights" look. I find that I end up not taking the trade just because the blue line didn't cross over the pink line and the pink line didn't change color to orange....etc

I personally believe that if you keep it simple it will keep you happy and profitable...Now simple to one person might be complex to another....that word again..... Discretionary.

The Fozzy system has been the only system that has given me constant pips in all of my short trading career. That to me in of its self speaks volumes.

When I started trading the Fozzy Method about 6 weeks ago I did three things (for the first month) that have phycologically kept me going: 1. I committed to taking all the crosses and trading the original Fozzy way with no deviations what so ever. 2. I resigned my self to loosing money IF that is what was going to happen. 3. I kept a record of EVERY signal trade I did and I would go back and keep looking at those trades as a learning tool.

I beileve that if you did nothing else but those three things, the Fozzy Method will make you pips.

Dam I'm long winded...

Have a great weekend

Billser....
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #2,273
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:13pm Jun 8, 2007 5:13pm
Quoting BeachBum
Different brokers, different signals.............the above is a good example..................your loser is my winner!

I'll look at your work closely this weekend!

PS................my backtest took me over 3 hours, and I don't consider myself "slow"..............
Ok great, I'm going to examine your data feed and use the same indicator you used as well, and let you know if my findings correlate with yours--looking forward to the testing! (well, not really--but you know what I mean :-O)
  • #2,274
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:15pm Jun 8, 2007 5:15pm
Alright BB,

no i havent tested fozzy with my use of filters because for me its still fozzy which i have backtested ,only now it has the added security of s/r breaks and if you look back at how the channel behaves ,so long as the price movement is outsde of it ,your in the trade .

I must admit to using candle signals quite extensively also

Rye

p.s however in addition to my +867 for the month i can now add todays pips also. for me these are amazing results
  • #2,275
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:18pm Jun 8, 2007 5:18pm
Nice Pips Ryecatcher.

Quoting Ryecatcher
Alright BB,

no i havent tested fozzy with my use of filters because for me its still fozzy which i have backtested ,only now it has the added security of s/r breaks and if you look back at how the channel behaves ,so long as the price movement is outsde of it ,your in the trade .

I must admit to using candle signals quite extensively also

Rye

p.s however in addition to my +867 for the month i can now add todays pips also. for me these are amazing results
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #2,276
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:34pm Jun 8, 2007 5:34pm
I cant quite believe it myself :surprised

also cught some of e/u went in at 424 came out at 361...

didnt mention earlier cause i didnt want seem boastful ...

but what a week/month

hope it lasts

cheers

Rye
Attached Image
  • #2,277
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:44pm Jun 8, 2007 5:44pm
Rye.......I forgot to mention this earlier, but I see you're trading 1 hour Fozzy. Correct?

Quoting Ryecatcher
I cant quite believe it myself :surprised

also cught some of e/u went in at 424 came out at 361...

didnt mention earlier cause i didnt want seem boastful ...

but what a week/month

hope it lasts

cheers

Rye
  • #2,278
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:46pm Jun 8, 2007 5:46pm
OK............it looks like eveyone who is "working" the Fozzy method has earned pips this month. Well done...................

I hear a Guiness calling my name.................
  • #2,279
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:52pm Jun 8, 2007 5:52pm
Quoting BeachBum
OK............it looks like eveyone who is "working" the Fozzy method has earned pips this month. Well done...................

I hear a Guiness calling my name.................
BB.... Guiness.....Are you a Brit.....that would explain a lot.....
Rye.....Keep on Boasting Sir.....Great work
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #2,280
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:59pm Jun 8, 2007 5:59pm
to end the week ...google the words under my name..

i absolutely piŁ$ed myself

cheers all

Rye

p.s dont you hate it when some one finally learns to post charts....
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