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Why is NZD so strong??

  • #21
  • Jun 5, 2007 7:01pm Jun 5, 2007 7:01pm
Quoting top banana
What has New Zealand got to offer to push it up that high?
...
Attached Image
  • #22
  • Jun 5, 2007 7:09pm Jun 5, 2007 7:09pm
How couldn't you be long after that...
  • #23
  • Jun 6, 2007 2:22am Jun 6, 2007 2:22am
Long.. I've topped out with this Kiwi now.

Maybe still some left in the bag??
  • #24
  • Jun 7, 2007 11:31am Jun 7, 2007 11:31am
Feels good to be right, I was long NZD/[email protected], and NZD/USD at 7470. Let's see what we can get to by weeks end.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #25
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:12pm Jun 7, 2007 1:12pm
Get in there Dutch Trader!!!

It's getting very choppy up the top there have you taken your profits or can you see more upside?

I won't short it until the .7444 mark is breached.

I can see it going up a fair bit still with those interest rates and housing booming for now.

The AUD had excellent Employment results these two have still got a bit left in them for a while.

I had the signals to go north back at .7327 but I could'nt go against the trend at the time.

Everyone's been selling the GPB today so made up so far on the GPB/JPY.

Canadian dollar looks like it starting to bottom out now. Who knows just a liittle bit more just to make sure.


PiP Pip Hooray.
  • #26
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:18am Jun 8, 2007 5:18am
Quoting top banana
Get in there Dutch Trader!!!

It's getting very choppy up the top there have you taken your profits or can you see more upside?

I won't short it until the .7444 mark is breached.

I can see it going up a fair bit still with those interest rates and housing booming for now.

The AUD had excellent Employment results these two have still got a bit left in them for a while.

I had the signals to go north back at .7327 but I could'nt go against the trend at the time.

Everyone's been selling the GPB today so made up so far on the GPB/JPY.

Canadian dollar looks like it starting to bottom out now. Who knows just a liittle bit more just to make sure.


PiP Pip Hooray.
Sorry Bananan, I did get stopped out. With the NZD I always have a trailing stop whenever I'm holding an open position. I was stopped out at 91.57 in nzd/jpy and at 7520. So now flat against the market. Looks like USD 10yr is causing some carnage eh?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #27
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:32pm Jun 8, 2007 5:32pm
NZD just went up for another 100 pips piercing through 0.7640!

NZD, AUD, CAD wanting to become at par with USD?
ie NZDUSD=1, AUDUSD=1 and USDcAD=1?

Carry Traders must be extremely prolific this year.
  • #28
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:42pm Jun 8, 2007 5:42pm
Yeah 10 year notes over 5% are getting plenty of interest.

Good results today for the States today have, most of the dollar pairs would of seen a small gain.

Very eventful day today, Stering looks like it's having a correction should reaach the 1.9200 over the next few weeks!!

Hold on, louder you scream faster they fall.

Please let me know when the N/U is up for a big fall.

I feel there is a big correction soon, dollar is so oversold!!

Plenty to be made, just don't take your eye off those signals.


God bless those Pips??
  • #29
  • Jun 8, 2007 6:18pm Jun 8, 2007 6:18pm
nzdchf is about to test 0,9448 ( 2006 high ) eurnzd also pointing lower at this stage, my point is that even that if we se more dollar strenght (usdchf) we could still se kiwi going higher, long nzdusd long usdchf =long nzdchf ( we need to calculate dollar amount for positioning) current i use gold and nzd/chf as a leading indicator for direction may pips bless us

revoke
  • #30
  • Jun 11, 2007 2:35am Jun 11, 2007 2:35am
It's all going on now, eyes down.

RBNZ intervened, just shows what happens when you don't have a balance of growth. It must reverse, this will shit the investors up if the the NZ bank is jumping in.

As always it ends in tears.

Get ready, selling at .7475 this will be fun.

How much slippage is there when the market moves like this? Do your stops STOP! when the market is this hostile. I never traded before when this has happened.

Do you think it's best to stay out until it's settled a bit??

I bet the brokers will be making a killing in the spread with this NZD.

Trade with caution. Make a Killing.
  • #31
  • Jun 11, 2007 2:46am Jun 11, 2007 2:46am
People who have shorted it might be very happy now ^^
  • #32
  • Jun 11, 2007 2:18pm Jun 11, 2007 2:18pm
Melpheos there only happy if they shorted at the peak.

Many traders have shorted the NZD i.e N/U from a .73 area.

The hedgers must have such an influence for the RBNZ to step in to lower the value.

If and buts and this stage of the equation.

Logically if you were a investing, surely you would not throw more money at an economy that has a very high interest that is virtually melting?

If you were in charge would'nt you intervene to protect the interest of the country?

But humans being humans, once bitten twice shy. Possibly could go up to the RBNZ.

Got stopped out ordered another trade at .7475 to sell.

Bloody charts!!!!!!!

Scrat you must be holding on by your finger nails.

Common sense, just isn't common!!!
  • #33
  • Jun 12, 2007 7:04am Jun 12, 2007 7:04am
actually i'm flat at the moment after a 50 pips trade yesterday; i couldn't have got from the top anyway, it was a total surprise for everyone.
and looks like it's heading nowhere for the moment. but i'll short it again from 0.7460 area; another possible short entry should be 0.7495, with SL @ 0.7545.
we'll see.

Quoting top banana
Melpheos there only happy if they shorted at the peak.

Many traders have shorted the NZD i.e N/U from a .73 area.

The hedgers must have such an influence for the RBNZ to step in to lower the value.

If and buts and this stage of the equation.

Logically if you were a investing, surely you would not throw more money at an economy that has a very high interest that is virtually melting?

If you were in charge would'nt you intervene to protect the interest of the country?

But humans being humans, once bitten twice shy. Possibly could go up to the RBNZ.

Got stopped out ordered another trade at .7475 to sell.

Bloody charts!!!!!!!

Scrat you must be holding on by your finger nails.

Common sense, just isn't common!!!
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #34
  • Jun 12, 2007 11:48am Jun 12, 2007 11:48am
Looks like the market can test RBNZ's mood again... I'm long now, 30 pips trailing...

  • #35
  • Jun 21, 2007 4:30am Jun 21, 2007 4:30am
12:30 Sydney- will it fall down again ?
  • #36
  • Jun 21, 2007 5:11am Jun 21, 2007 5:11am
This is a great thread! Enjoying reading your posts, gang.

Shorted last week and lost.

Now we've made a nice little head and shoulders on the 15m, topping right where the recent intervention occurred.

But every time it dips, worldwide carry traders buy, overwhelming everything else. Did everyone see the article that came up in the FF forum yesterday about Japanese housewives? It said there have been 600,000 forex accounts opened in Japan in the last year. Think about each of those folks leveraging up, and the same thing is happening in the US. People are flocking to forex, and the carry trade is the closest thing to a money tree.... until a big storm knocks the tree down.... what will it take?
  • #37
  • Jun 21, 2007 9:37pm Jun 21, 2007 9:37pm
Quoting blueruby
People are flocking to forex, and the carry trade is the closest thing to a money tree.... until a big storm knocks the tree down.... what will it take?

Cio-Cio-San, aka Madama Butterfly (with the score by Lorenz, not Puccini )
  • #38
  • Jun 21, 2007 10:00pm Jun 21, 2007 10:00pm
Quote
People are flocking to forex, and the carry trade is the closest thing to a money tree.... until a big storm knocks the tree down.... what will it take?

Wait for this coming Sunday 4:00PM EST. At this time, all banks/markets are closed except New Zealand. Liquidity is low and therefore, RBNZ can easily bring the NZD value down by selling a few million NZD. NZ Banks could also follow.

However, if "real money" traders are waiting to buy on dips, then it would be a tag o war.
  • #39
  • Jun 21, 2007 11:26pm Jun 21, 2007 11:26pm
Quote
02:59 NZD/USD: Tight Ranges To Close The Week In Asia Sydney June 22. The Kiwi has traded in a 0.7628/40 range this morning in Asia, with light demand from model funds absorbed by profit taking into the weekend in a quiet session. Stops above 0.7645 were taken out overnight, as the pairing stalled around 0.7655, which is now initial resistance, while support starts at an hourly range low at 0.7610, with 0.7575/80 a more significant level, the prior two day"s low.
There is a great deal of talk in the market of a large uridashi related bid in the swaps market for NZD1bln+ and there is also a raft of Japanese investment trusts scheduled into month end, some of which will be in NZD, so the question is, have the issues been pre-bought this week, or will there be another round of NZD buying into month end? Our information suggests that model funds have been the major buyers this week, so though the Japanese have been net buyers, there should be significantly more to be done next week. The Kiwi trades 0.7635/38. [email protected]
Bollard vs Japanese investors
  • #40
  • Jun 22, 2007 1:33am Jun 22, 2007 1:33am
This is a good thread. Frankly I have been waiting this whole month now to take this short. I don't feel the New Zealand economy can support such a high rate. I did get a few PIPs on the intervention but mostly I have been waiting. When this thing goes I think it will go hard, but it is hard to say when it will go. I was tempted at 73 but held back. I was tempted at 74 and held back. As I write this it is sitting at .7648 & I am really tempted but I can't find anything on any chart to give me a sign. So I will wait some more. I really can't see it getting past .7650 let alone .7700 but you never know I guess. I do have to say I find it strange that NZ keeps raising their interest rate while at the same time trying to force their currency down. I'm not sure I follow that thinking.
Lots of News next week on the NZD though. Trade Balance , GDP, Current account. If these all come in weak....
Waiting in the weeds
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