Why is NZD so strong?? | Forex Factory

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Why is NZD so strong??

  • #1
  • First Post: May 31, 2007 8:08am May 31, 2007 8:08am
Has anyone got an idea on why the NZD is going strong???
  • #2
  • May 31, 2007 8:11am May 31, 2007 8:11am
Is strong because Reserve bank expected to raise rates next week and probably again in July!!
  • #3
  • May 31, 2007 8:25am May 31, 2007 8:25am
Thanks for a speedy, very helpful response Ahoy.

Do you think that it will breakthrough the end of April highs?

Cheers

TB
  • #4
  • May 31, 2007 8:41am May 31, 2007 8:41am
Quoting top banana
Has anyone got an idea on why the NZD is going strong???
NZD/*** crosses are much like ***/JPY crosses. Anything it is pinned against is usually very interest positive. When carry trade positions are strong, typically the AUD and NZD head north.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #5
  • May 31, 2007 9:26am May 31, 2007 9:26am
TB
No idea but NZ ecconomy experiencing strong export prices driving inflation and a strong housing demand. So yes the risk appears to be the upside.
  • #6
  • Jun 1, 2007 1:03am Jun 1, 2007 1:03am
Quoting Ahoy
Is strong because Reserve bank expected to raise rates next week and probably again in July!!
Considering we here in NZ are at the highest Interest rate in nearly ten years, and the manufacturing sector is on the verge of mutiny with the finance minister; coupled with the fact the IMF has called our finance minister and told him to 'cool off' from raising interest rates again... I doubt very much we'll be seeing any interest rate increases for the rest of the year.

Look more towards the alignment of positive trade with China and the fact the Asian economy is so strong as to the new interest in carrying with the NZD. There is little reason we will see our NZD collapse. But I wish it would, my short is killing me.
  • #7
  • Jun 1, 2007 2:27am Jun 1, 2007 2:27am
Cheers for your input!!

Governor Alan Bollard will raise the benchmark interest rate to a record 8 percent next week because the stronger economy will fan inflation.

The economy is simply speeding out of control (These are not my words)

Explains the surge for NZD can't all be speculation.

Any one know how to borrow a few Mill from the Japenese Gov???
  • #8
  • Jun 1, 2007 3:40am Jun 1, 2007 3:40am
Quoting top banana
Cheers for your input!!

Governor Alan Bollard will raise the benchmark interest rate to a record 8 percent next week because the stronger economy will fan inflation.

The economy is simply speeding out of control (These are not my words)

Explains the surge for NZD can't all be speculation.

Any one know how to borrow a few Mill from the Japenese Gov???
Your source? I read a consensual probability of a hike @ 25-35%

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/topic/stor...ectid=10443024
  • #9
  • Jun 1, 2007 1:50pm Jun 1, 2007 1:50pm
If you ever wondered what a star falling from heaven was like....
Short NZD now.
  • #10
  • Jun 1, 2007 3:58pm Jun 1, 2007 3:58pm
by my calculations, it should have been falling by now. i opened a short @ 0.7420 and i see no signs of reversal yet. anyway, i'm not leaving it without 150 pips profit at least, whenever this would be.
we'll see.

Quoting stunew
If you ever wondered what a star falling from heaven was like....
Short NZD now.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #11
  • Jun 2, 2007 5:25am Jun 2, 2007 5:25am
kiwi seems going up as gold looks like turning around up again chalenging last years highs take care with short kiwi and aussie


revoke
  • #12
  • Jun 2, 2007 9:20am Jun 2, 2007 9:20am
The carry trades on the JPY/NZD must be absolutely immense as with most other currency crosses with NZD. Surely having one of the highest interest rates in the world has got to create demand for the high yeilding NZD. Surely in the mid term it's going to go Up Up Up?

I personally shorted the NZD/USD back when it was .7471 and exited just after the breakthrough of .74 was breached a day or so ago.

I did not think that there was much more upside back then, don't you just hate these surges!!!

Give us shout when you think the reverse is going to happen.

Cheers fellows punters.
  • #13
  • Jun 3, 2007 3:54pm Jun 3, 2007 3:54pm
I look for it to hit the 1990 high at 92.20
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #14
  • Jun 3, 2007 4:32pm Jun 3, 2007 4:32pm
i see the start of a bearish divergence on daily chart (look at macd), so i expect it to come down sooner or later.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #15
  • Jun 4, 2007 4:39am Jun 4, 2007 4:39am
Come on Scrat we can't just rely on MACD to give us a reverse. Sooner being when?? What are your other reasons??? Come on spill the beans!!!

Dutch trader are you long on your position? Why do you look for it to hit 92.20? What has New Zealand got to offer to push it up that high. Can you see interest rates going up to 9.5% to stop this housing sector overheating.

What is the correlation between Gold and the KIWI Revoke?

Stunew what made you short the NZD, is it your fundamental views or do you use Tech Signals? Your short, if you don't mind me asking, at what price did you short is it killing you?

Ahoy are you just observing the NZD or are you amongst it? With the interest statement being released on Wednesday, can you see another boost in the NZD?

StockKJay do you trade typically when the NZD & JPY crosses carry trades are positive?

Who fancies combining our views/signals to successfully trading this NZD say with the USD?? or any other pair they feel we should use. I'm easy.

I not sure whether this can be done with yes & no decisions being made, using a voting system probably will work the best.

I say over 6 months to a Year. I will confidently stick my neck out and say we can make money!! As long as we don't trade on HUNCHES!!!!

Who's up for it?
  • #16
  • Jun 4, 2007 5:08am Jun 4, 2007 5:08am
ok, how about this:
many pairs are looking to go down after this friday. aud has kept usd pairs from going down, but looks like it topped already and turning bearish. so... i think n-u has to go down, also.
is this ok with you? i'd say it's pretty different from macd.

Quoting top banana
Come on Scrat we can't just rely on MACD to give us a reverse. Sooner being when?? What are your other reasons??? Come on spill the beans!!!

Dutch trader are you long on your position? Why do you look for it to hit 92.20? What has New Zealand got to offer to push it up that high. Can you see interest rates going up to 9.5% to stop this housing sector overheating.

What is the correlation between Gold and the KIWI Revoke?

Stunew what made you short the NZD, is it your fundamental views or do you use Tech Signals? Your short, if you don't mind me asking, at what price did you short is it killing you?

Ahoy are you just observing the NZD or are you amongst it? With the interest statement being released on Wednesday, can you see another boost in the NZD?

StockKJay do you trade typically when the NZD & JPY crosses carry trades are positive?

Who fancies combining our views/signals to successfully trading this NZD say with the USD?? or any other pair they feel we should use. I'm easy.

I not sure whether this can be done with yes & no decisions being made, using a voting system probably will work the best.

I say over 6 months to a Year. I will confidently stick my neck out and say we can make money!! As long as we don't trade on HUNCHES!!!!

Who's up for it?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #17
  • Jun 4, 2007 7:46am Jun 4, 2007 7:46am
Quoting top banana
Come on Scrat we can't just rely on MACD to give us a reverse. Sooner being when?? What are your other reasons??? Come on spill the beans!!!

Dutch trader are you long on your position? Why do you look for it to hit 92.20? What has New Zealand got to offer to push it up that high. Can you see interest rates going up to 9.5% to stop this housing sector overheating.

What is the correlation between Gold and the KIWI Revoke?

Stunew what made you short the NZD, is it your fundamental views or do you use Tech Signals? Your short, if you don't mind me asking, at what price did you short is it killing you?

Ahoy are you just observing the NZD or are you amongst it? With the interest statement being released on Wednesday, can you see another boost in the NZD?

StockKJay do you trade typically when the NZD & JPY crosses carry trades are positive?

Who fancies combining our views/signals to successfully trading this NZD say with the USD?? or any other pair they feel we should use. I'm easy.

I not sure whether this can be done with yes & no decisions being made, using a voting system probably will work the best.

I say over 6 months to a Year. I will confidently stick my neck out and say we can make money!! As long as we don't trade on HUNCHES!!!!

Who's up for it?
I shorted the NZD @ 0.7322 because the whole of NZ is waiting for a major correction. Our economy is booming, US is slowing, Interest rates are at ceiling level, Major corps are outsourcing manuf. and production offshore.... something has to give.
But cor-blimey.... It just keeps going up.
I don't trade TA much at all... except when RSI's and MACD's fly off the chart. I'm a reactionary trader... but this trade has fooled me. I read myself to sleep and ponder trades for days before taking a position.

It's a holiday in NZ today, but I don't think that effects the market too much. Picked up the local paper today....
Headline - 'Bankers Stunned'
  • #18
  • Jun 4, 2007 10:01am Jun 4, 2007 10:01am
Of course it's O.K! Cheers for the positive divergence on your reply.
Do you think it will breakthrough the 7486 res (The old classic Double Top) on Wednesday before falling off like a tarts dress? Who knows??

Do you like to combine the COT data with you predictions Stunew?

I used it to make me a small fortune with the CAD, still pulling like a train, just like the Canadian train set Warren Buffet has just bought into for the commodities. CAD should be topping out soon but the Loonie just keeps going from strength to strength.

Anyway I'm gasping for a pint..

Adios
  • #19
  • Jun 4, 2007 1:20pm Jun 4, 2007 1:20pm
Quoting top banana
Come on Scrat we can't just rely on MACD to give us a reverse. Sooner being when?? What are your other reasons??? Come on spill the beans!!!

Dutch trader are you long on your position? Why do you look for it to hit 92.20? What has New Zealand got to offer to push it up that high. Can you see interest rates going up to 9.5% to stop this housing sector overheating.

What is the correlation between Gold and the KIWI Revoke?

Stunew what made you short the NZD, is it your fundamental views or do you use Tech Signals? Your short, if you don't mind me asking, at what price did you short is it killing you?

Ahoy are you just observing the NZD or are you amongst it? With the interest statement being released on Wednesday, can you see another boost in the NZD?

StockKJay do you trade typically when the NZD & JPY crosses carry trades are positive?

Who fancies combining our views/signals to successfully trading this NZD say with the USD?? or any other pair they feel we should use. I'm easy.

I not sure whether this can be done with yes & no decisions being made, using a voting system probably will work the best.

I say over 6 months to a Year. I will confidently stick my neck out and say we can make money!! As long as we don't trade on HUNCHES!!!!

Who's up for it?

I believe that the inflationary pressures are still there for a rate hike. As far as the NZD/JPY going to 92.20 that is where the Fibo measurements top out.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #20
  • Jun 5, 2007 2:14am Jun 5, 2007 2:14am
Nice kiwi longs lets se how gold peform i add more kiwi longs if gold go above 675 current 672.34

revoke
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