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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #5,721
  • Jun 7, 2007 7:58pm Jun 7, 2007 7:58pm
Quoting bravado
confirmation looks good. also load up on ej if you wish.
looks even better.

hey bravado,
what do u use for confirmation of the long?
  • #5,722
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:15pm Jun 7, 2007 8:15pm
Eureka! Found my Holy Grail:

Take opposite positions to bravado.



No seriously, I cant see a definite direction yet - analyst just said

"Looks like USDJPY was being propped up for the fix".

Seems like downward surge could continue. Currently closed all positions. Anyone ideas?

.
  • #5,723
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:22pm Jun 7, 2007 8:22pm
Quoting mcv-exchange
hey bravado,
what do u use for confirmation of the long?
price action.

//

btw, if the price falls from here don't be alarmed. hold your position and buy more from below. don't go crazy. you'll be amazed how much you can gain by building up with small amount on dips.

buy it and hold it.

again, current level is an 'excellent' buying opportunity.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,724
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:30pm Jun 7, 2007 8:30pm
Quoting bravado
price action.

//

btw, if the price falls from here don't be alarmed. hold your position and buy more from below. don't go crazy. you'll be amazed how much you can gain by building up with small amount on dips.

buy it and hold it.

again, current level is an 'excellent' buying opportunity.
ahh, price action like failure swings? let me know....
but i agree this is a good place to buy, but i smell a retest of 23890 and if that level does not hold look out for the 237xx to come into play which would be a lovely buy!
  • #5,725
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:40pm Jun 7, 2007 8:40pm
Quoting mcv-exchange
i smell a retest of 23890 and if that level does not hold look out for the 237xx to come into play which would be a lovely buy!
well. i wouldn't exactly call going down to 3890 a retest. but any break below will likely be a fake out.

the price right now is indeed a good place to buy because significant fundamental push would be required to drop the price beyond current level.

and i'm not talking about a visit to 3890.

//

newbies, beginners, novices will take this as cue to go all in. don't do that. buy small amounts and build your position. i cannot emphasize this enough for this pair. you WILL see great profits adding little by little.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,726
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:40pm Jun 7, 2007 8:40pm
Quoting mcv-exchange
ahh, price action like failure swings? let me know....
but i agree this is a good place to buy, but i smell a retest of 23890 and if that level does not hold look out for the 237xx to come into play which would be a lovely buy!
tnx for ur post mcv-exchange, will you please elaborate on how did you predict the 238.90 come into play? Because for me 239.55 is now hard to crack tnx in advance...still "buy on dips"....
  • #5,727
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:41pm Jun 7, 2007 8:41pm
Skepticism all over my charts here... GU bouncing off 23% of y'day hi-lo (200 pips) is bearish for tomorrow. Euro even worse, just put new low.... UJ likely toppish in the 100 hour EMA (120.35).....

I chickened out....
  • #5,728
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:46pm Jun 7, 2007 8:46pm
Quoting mcv-exchange
ahh, price action like failure swings? let me know....
but i agree this is a good place to buy, but i smell a retest of 23890 and if that level does not hold look out for the 237xx to come into play which would be a lovely buy!
read this on bloomberg

June 8 (Bloomberg) -- The yen headed for the first weekly advance versus the euro in a month as a slump in global stock markets caused investors to sell higher-yielding assets they bought with money borrowed in Japan.
Japan's currency yesterday gained the most in 10 weeks after the Dow Jones Industrial Average had the biggest drop since April 13, pushing traders to pare so-called carry trades. Asian stock markets are likely to follow after American depositary receipts of the region's equities had the biggest decline in three weeks.
``The carry is going to come in for a bit of a pasting as Asian markets will be rattled,'' said Paul Milton, chief dealer at Societe Generale SA in Sydney. ``There will be yen strength.''
The yen was at 162.65 per euro at 9 a.m. in Tokyo from 162.52 late in New York yesterday, when it gained 0.6 percent. It may rise to 161.30 today, Milton said. The yen traded at 121.15 per dollar from 120.98.

what do you think are we going down again tomorrow?
  • #5,729
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:48pm Jun 7, 2007 8:48pm
If you draw the fibo with the low on May 11 and the high on June 5, you will see that the 50% is at 239.7 and the 61.8% (from the top) is at 238.9....twice (on May 25 and May 30), the price bounced off the 50% and so yesterday they expected the same as well. But yesterday it bounced off the 61.8....hmm lets see....
  • #5,730
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:52pm Jun 7, 2007 8:52pm
Ok, call me crazy....

Short UJ @ market + sell limit 121.35 (100 hour EMA) - risk 121.60, reward 120.60...

Sell stop 120.99.

Tomorrow will tell....

Technically and fundamentally these trades are based on GUT FEELING only.
  • #5,731
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:58pm Jun 7, 2007 8:58pm
Quoting bravado
well. i wouldn't exactly call going down to 3890 a retest. but any break below will likely be a fake out.

the price right now is indeed a good place to buy because significant fundamental push would be required to drop the price beyond current level.

and i'm not talking about a visit to 3890.

//

newbies, beginners, novices will take this as cue to go all in. don't do that. buy small amounts and build your position. i cannot emphasize this enough for this pair. you WILL see great profits adding little by little.
okay, i see what u mean about the 23890 not being a true "retest"... but i think 23890 is definitely an important level (it's proven itself in many times)and a being so close and the way the market is, I feel like bears will try to "get past" it... taking us to 237.7x area, which IMHO would be the fake out level....
  • #5,732
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:00pm Jun 7, 2007 9:00pm
Quoting cesarnc
Ok, call me crazy....

Short UJ @ market + sell limit 121.35 (100 hour EMA) - risk 121.60, reward 120.60...

Sell stop 120.99.

Tomorrow will tell....

Technically and fundamentally these trades are based on GUT FEELING only.
Hmmm let see if your Gut Feeling is good enough to follow, never sucess with my own
  • #5,733
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:02pm Jun 7, 2007 9:02pm
Quoting heriyadi
Hmmm let see if your Gut Feeling is good enough to follow, never sucess with my own
Don't try this at home Junior...



gotta get some sleep now...
  • #5,734
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:07pm Jun 7, 2007 9:07pm
Quoting mcv-exchange
taking us to 237.7x area, which IMHO would be the fake out level....
you are on. i say it won't in my expert opinion. but remember, you are going againt a true pro.

btw. if it gets there, buy more.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,735
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:12pm Jun 7, 2007 9:12pm
Quoting bravado
you are on. i say it won't. but remember, you are going againt a true pro.

btw. if it gets there, buy more.
Friday is gonna be interesting now... The looser wears this avatar for a week. Deal?



http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2004/...b__430x340.jpg
  • #5,736
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:13pm Jun 7, 2007 9:13pm
Quoting cesarnc
Friday is gonna be interesting now... The looser wears this avatar for a week. Deal?


whats your proposal? (loser of what)
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,737
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:18pm Jun 7, 2007 9:18pm
Quoting cesarnc
Short UJ @ market + sell limit 121.35
sell limit triggered?
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,738
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:27pm Jun 7, 2007 9:27pm
ahahaha cesarnc...Deal!

while i think that we may looking at the birth of a new downtrend (still too early to say), i had a nice bull flag for a good 30 pips an hour ago...

keeping the trails low...
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  • #5,739
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:34pm Jun 7, 2007 9:34pm
Quoting cesarnc
Friday is gonna be interesting now... The looser wears this avatar for a week. Deal?



http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2004/...b__430x340.jpg
what the heck... it's my first... i'll take the deal
  • #5,740
  • Jun 8, 2007 2:29am Jun 8, 2007 2:29am
Is this armaggedon? If so, it has come a lot earlier than I thought it would!

It's got all the tell-tale signs of a carry unwind despite the comments of Wantanabe and co...
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