DislikedNot to trade is a trading decision too!
Don't try too hard to find reasons for market movements, just stick with what the charts tell you. Today isn't exceptional for this cross. The past 2 months of low volatility were more exceptional. Sometimes it helps to zoom out of the M15/H1 charts and check the daily and monthly for a better perspective. Check the daily charts and you notice that last year this puppy used to have very regular corrections of 400-600 pips in 3-5 days, just to resume it's trend.
What has changed since than?
The interest rate differential is bigger than ever, japanese economy is still struggling to shrug off deflation (or BOJ/MOF is still manipulation the hell out of their inflation/consumption data : ) and the BOE is struggling with historic high inflation. So not much change on the fundamentals with last year.
What has changed is that the february correction (result of jap end of year repatriation, tankan report, japanese rate hike and soaring global equities partially funded with cheap yen) reminded us that the carry trade is not a free ride to unlimited cash and with the historic highs in global markets (EUR,AUD,NZD, GBP, Gold, stock markets) the carry is attracting loads of attention and markets get nervous. So expect more volatility, but the main trend is up up up. Where it ends 248, 260 , 286.... only god knows and no doubt about it, it will be voilent. But I only know that I'm a buyer above 226 for sure and perhaps even down to 212 as long as the IRD remains this sweet. Shorting this monster is just suicide, at least for me.
Good luck to you all it'll be interesting to watch the coming days and I hope to build some nice longs to hold for dear life.Ignored
Thanks for sharing your opinion, which is mine also. I am just not patient enough to sit and wait for the present down-move to unfold and then entering long. So I am on the short side, at least for tomorrow. When the long term trend (which is definetely UP UP UP ) clicks in again I will be long as well and then with a longer perspective, as the runs last longer.
Rgds
t.
always expect the unexpected!