4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

Thank you for the insight, Pips. I'm certainly taking the retracement possibility into consideration. For example, my little 30 point stop will be easily taken if it only retraces to the 8ma on the daily, which it did just six days ago. However, and I can see myself kicking myself later at this comment, I feel as if it is physically impossible to take 33 pips profit at this moment, while it's staying below the 8ma. -- Tony

Oh, I downloaded the e-book too, have heard of but haven't read the book, and thank you and Phillip for the trend explanations.

You are doing a great job w/this trade! Nicely done ...Exhibiting a good trait for successful trader....Patience!!! Hope this pair continues to explore the inner reaches of the earth's crust.

Happy Trading,
Pips

No problem. Havent read it myself. Will be interesting.

My language is Afrikaans(South Africa) so you will find a lot English not perfect. If the meaning is distorted and is actually contradicting, please feel free to let me know as I only want the correct meaning to go through.
Thanks

Phillip,
I've been having the impression, for some time now, that your English is getting better by leaps and bounds! English is my native language, but, if I can communicate as well in English as you do, I will believe I have done a very good job. --Tony

And thanks again for so much effort and so much shared skill!

Sorry for spelling your last name wrong. See?

[
I put in a GTC order at 10:35 GMT for USDCAD to go short at 1.0623, which was the 21ma on the one hour chart. My four hour chart uses EDT, and I'm MDT, GMT-6, so I had to get to bed. I entered 1 mini-lot, and am very reluctant to take profit or move my stop down until I can get a better idea of the action. The move back up to the 21 got rejected again, so I'm in limbo until I can recognize a direction. The temptation to ride the Canadian train down is too tempting! -- Tony[/quote]

quick cautionary tale on last nights ride on the USD CAD. My initial TP was at 1.0572. As it dropped, I moved my stop to one pip below my entry (any pips are good pips) and went to bed. Woke up to find that not only wasn't 0571 achieved, which looked like a safe channel range, but I had set my stop to 1.0695 by mistake! Long, story short, I rechecked the technicals and thought I was seeing a double top/double BOZ onthe 4 hr. Reset the stop and rode it down to 1.0572 with a 10 pip moving stop! Exposure was as high as 40 pips, but quickly dropped to 15 at 8:30 est. Talk about 19 pips the hard way!

Lesson learned: 1. Reconfirm orders before and after hitting the enter button. 2. Believe in the system. 3. Big RR are not always bad if you are confident with the technicals and can afford the loss.

Hi Philip...please see this chart... Is the right time to buy GBPJPY ?


Thanks

Pips, Phillip, thank you very much for being so kind. I am sorry that I bump you with silly questions, but I really set a target to be a pro in this business, and there nobbody except you I can ask .
The last three days were quite hard for me, because I expected the price to go certain way, which it didn't. When I understood that it will not go that way, it was already too late to open position and I stayed on the sidelines of a good move. And I must say it's painful to watch the move and not to be in the trade. Especially, when there was a signal and proper conditions. You look back and say, here is everything, why I stupid didn't open the position??? And that feeling makes you to hunt trades, there should be a pullback, you think, I must take it. So you see a slight sign of a pullback and take the wrong deal (I was too stoped on G/U not very originall ). I started to think for market, not with the market! I think we were stoped first of all because we stayed out of a good move and we desired to take revenge from the market.
Well, the market changes every hour, I would say every minute and we should look at it every time with "new" eyes. I think I should not expect something from market, once again: "The facts are in front of you therefore you must do this and that". And a one more great advice from Phillip: "counter trade that's not we are looking for, we are waiting for TC".
PATIENCE - the magic word. BTW if I get too bored I go to Phillip's 5 min strategy, yesterday I earned there 20pips.
Sorry to put it all on you, but I needed to share it to ease my tension .
Phillip, please don't worry about your English, every word of yours is exact and precise.

Hi Ira,

Think we can all relate to your post. There are many moves that we miss and kick ourselves for not taking. The biggest thing to remember is: not every move is ours. It is impossible for us to capture every perfect set-up (but I get mad too when I miss a great trade (that was planned in advance) and an opportunity to enter doesn't appear). In order to grow in this business, we have to shrug these "missed opportunities" off and know that another good trade is right around the corner (much easier said then done).

The next most important thing is to figure out your plan and stick to it! Don't keep "re-evaluating" the market. Only re-evaluate if you are proven wrong w/your assumptions. If you keep re-evaluating (on a short time frame, as determined by your study of the market), you will question your plan and find it difficult to stick w/your trade. (I did this earlier in the week with E/J trade. It moved against me for 24 hours while U/J sold off. I thought that my analysis was flawed and my reasons for the trade were forced. I closed the trade manually at a loss, only to have the trade turn around within a few hours (12) and go to my TP (which was +100 pips from entry) (my stop would not have been hit...and my stops are set to levels that prove me wrong based on my analysis of the market breath). Yes, you are correct, the market is dynamic, but we are trading on a 4 hour scale and sometimes (most times) our trades take quite a while to work in our favor (In my backtests, 8 - 24 hours is very common, so is > 2 - 3 days for full profit; also, very rare to have more than 13 trades per month per pair).

Lastly, it is normal to want to trade and be in the market, especially when we miss an opportunity. It is fantastic that you recognize this emotion! You know you have it and you know that it is a terrible state to approach the market! If we have to have a trade, we will find one (and our minds will bend the information to justify our entry). Usually, we end up w/a lousy trade that takes our precious pips from our accounts.

Personally, I feel that our mental state is the most important aspect to profitable trading! If you can approach the market without desperation and a must win attitude ( I always lose when I say, "today, I will make X dollars...and I usually lose exactly X dollars to the pip!). you will perform honest analysis of information presented to you if you aren't actively looking to be involved in the market. Without the need to trade, you will know when the right time to act is and will be able to execute without hesitation. Will you be 100% right in your trading decisions? The answer is YES...if you don't let desperation into your mind! Will you be 100% correct w/your trades? Probably not (and if you are, please manage my account, OK? ).

You are doing a great job! Working hard to understand the market dynamics and movements! Spend your time studying the market, practice one thing at a time via testing w/historical info! Read books to strengthen your emotional control (don't read too many books on how to trade until you are comfortable with how you trade because you will only start to confuse yourself and be inconsistent w/your approach). Learn 1 thing at a time, master that then learn another. Schedule testing into your weekly trading routine, along with trade planning and live testing/trading. Eventually things will start to click into place and you'll have the big "A-Ha" moments! The learning curve for Forex is "J" shaped...you think you understand the basics (which seem so simple), confuse yourself, look for clarificaction (which confuses you more), then, after many months/years, something happens and somthing starts to really click. That's when your knowledge shoots way up! Don't try too many things at one time....I can't say that enough!!! One thing at a time (Yes, I'm being redundant on purpose)....

& Always KNOW THAT YOU CAN MAKE A LIVING TRADING!! If you want success, you can have it! Work hard at studying the market! Practice what you know over and over and over and over!! Never stop the practice sessions!!! Keep good track of your trades. Spend time reviewing your trades each week...What went well, what didn't? Review, Review, Practice, Practice, Practice, Plan, Trade! Repeat weekly...that is the formula for longterm success!!!

As always...way to long a post....Just wanted to say, I totally know how you feel re: missing good trades & Your points on patience and revenge (and the rest of your post)...is so right on!! You are wise beyond your trading years!!!!


Best to you,
Pips

Pips!

Lovely e-book you posted!
It is making me stuck to my screen for hours.

Thanks.

Hani

Could have fooled me w/your english! Think we "native" speakers are too loose w/our word choices...You have nailed certain concepts w/the perfect use of specific words!

"Anticipate" nailed it for me! (later read it in Rem Of Stock Operator...Simply BRILLIANT...that one concept alone shifted my trading paradigm). Support and Resistance lines vs. TL too....There are many more....but, I've already way over utilized Forum resources/space....

Hope you capture many many pips!

Pips

I was the same way last week.....my eyes are still blurry....

Glad you like it! I think Every trader should start w/this one book (can you tell it just blew me away!! Couldn't believe every cliche, psychology point was covered).

Happy Trading!

Pips

As you can see, I'm new here, but I have been following this thread with great interest almost since its conception. I would really like to thank Phillip for not only devising such a great strategy, but also taking the time and care to explain all the subtleties in such great detail to everyone! Actually this is more than a strategy, this is a whole philosophy of trading. Also thank you to everyone else for their contributions and discussions! I've done some papertrading to convince myself that this strategy does really work, and now I opened up a really tiny live account to see how I can manage in a more real setting. Surprisingly in the first 3 days I made over 80 pips.

I especially liked my last setup on GBP/CHF (a pair which hardly anyone seems to use). If I'm not mistaken, this shows very well Phillip's "market motion and market rhythm" philosophy. On Tuesday, the price broke through the 89SMA (red), and eventually reached a medium-term trendline (orange) and almost got to 200SMA (blue). Moreover a daily support level was also in the vicinity (not shown on the chart). At the close of the 12pm candle on Wednesday, the MACD showed a mild reversal pattern, so I entered long at the red dot at 2.4263 with a SL just below the trendline, and a target just under the 2.4300 price level. Over the next 12 hours the price stayed down but tested the trendline twice more, before finally bouncing off and reaching my target level (blue dot), which now almost coincided with the 89SMA and the daily resistance level (not shown). Of course maybe I entered a bit early, and should have waited for a second test of the trendline, but I got quite healthy pips from this anyway, so I'm not complaining!

Again, thank you very much to everyone, and here is to making more pips!

I took yen and EUR/JPY longs based in tested of supports and confirmed by 1h chart doji stars and macd signails.
Today profits +63 pips.
Thanks Phillip for your teachings, my income grows constantly.
P.S:And now that we talk about books I would like recommend Robert Kiyosaki ones (very helpful especially for newbies).

Phillip,I find no problem understanding your english, in fact much easier than understanding this complicated market thing. however i did get 26 pips on the eur/chf bounce off the trendline just after i read your excellent trendline pdf. ,i really appreciate all your hard work, THANK YOU!
(Fxhermit, thanks for opening my eyes to this pair)

Anyone like the head and shoulders forming and bounce off TL?

Hello everyone . hope u all are having a good day. looking at my chart for USD JPYdo u think it is too late to enter a TC.It has bounced off the 21 MA which is a perfect setup. i know i could have entered by 1 hour chart. But now the candle is too long and it closes in another 2.5 hours. but it might go down to 200MA.
sorry the chart is blurred had to scan out to get the 200 in the picture

I squared my short position in USDCAD last night at 23:28GMT for thirty pips. My exit was at 1.0592. What I wrote last night in my journal was:

"I wanted so much to accompany $CAD down another lag of its journey to the center of the earth, but tiredness and inability to stop thinking about how a breakout was going to occur (but in which direction?) were too much for me."

Right now, the price is at 1.0632/37 on my platform and rising. Will have to see if it goes past the 89ma. At any rate, I would already be out some pips and wondering whether to square for a loss, as my 30 point stop was at 1.0653. -- The best to all, and good pip hunting! -- Tony

Info

I will wait for support or resistance breakaway.
This pair has been very quite this week.