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  • #23,801
  • Oct 7, 2023 12:24pm Oct 7, 2023 12:24pm
Quoting Capablanca
{quote} Update 3: I still received the Alpha wire last night. This confirms my suspicion that Alpha is still paying and paying quickly. The one week mess was all caused by Wise. For some reason I inserted the details twice and in none of them the transfer was processed. Wise support is a bunch of useless people. They kept saying that they could not provide information to recipient (which was me) and I would have to ask to the recipient (which was me). Don't laugh. This happened 3 times. My suggestion to euro zone traders is to avoid Wise and pick...
any updates with FXIFY? I have a withdrawal on 19th, im getting worried about having the same issues.
  • #23,802
  • Oct 7, 2023 12:27pm Oct 7, 2023 12:27pm
Quoting KoyaAndy18
{quote} any updates with FXIFY? I have a withdrawal on 19th, im getting worried about having the same issues.
No. On Monday will be a week and no payout yet. Keep us poster about yours, please
  • #23,803
  • Oct 7, 2023 12:28pm Oct 7, 2023 12:28pm
If someone is considering Maven, they don't allow scalping. They refund the challenge (at least they don't expect for a payout to deny it)
https://twitter.com/LIQUIDITYSENSEI/...51756020891695
  • #23,804
  • Oct 7, 2023 12:36pm Oct 7, 2023 12:36pm
Quoting Capablanca
If someone is considering Maven, they don't allow scalping. They refund the challenge (at least they don't expect for a payout to deny it) https://twitter.com/LIQUIDITYSENSEI/...51756020891695
They also have a all or nothing rule, where you cannot pass in a few trades. Then you need to do the challenge again. Have not seen how they handle this on funded accounts. This rule is not clearly defined at all and very discretionary. Market is doing what it wants. Sometimes you are faster in reaching goals and sometimes not.
  • #23,805
  • Oct 7, 2023 12:39pm Oct 7, 2023 12:39pm
Quoting TrAndy1
Some more info about detailed statistics on MFF (and also TFT). I find this video interesting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvDyIZ6jKfk
This guy is a scamming dirt bag. So I will not be clicking this video. Source: He requests payment for positive reviews of prop firms.
  • #23,806
  • Oct 7, 2023 12:42pm Oct 7, 2023 12:42pm
Quoting Capablanca
If someone is considering Maven, they don't allow scalping. They refund the challenge (at least they don't expect for a payout to deny it) https://twitter.com/LIQUIDITYSENSEI/...51756020891695
I also see more and more rules are coming. The no martinale, no grid rules etc. are not designed to help you as trader but to keep all the challenge fees. Because if a strategy does not work, why not let the trader find him out. They would pay the challenge fee nevertheless. For me it is kind of ridiculous if any prop firm is saying you need to trade this in that way or this way. You cannot trade it in that ways. That is bullshitting. If they knew how to trade they did not need to open such a prop firm. But I am not affected by these rules, as I know they are usually not profitable. These more and more rules are signs for me that the crowd of traders get more intelligent and more profitable overall, so there are less failed challenges and overall more payouts. So the prop firms are in place to "invent" new rules to make it bit more difficult or to sort some traders. It is bit dangerous looking to me. Because if that tendency holds on you can expect something in the end like Traders Central Funding where they have horrible consistency rules. Only placing trades on same symbol for same holding time, minimum holding time, no difference in lot sizes and such things. That would be a pretty bad development. That is something that disturbs me. But I like the new no time limit rules a lot. So this is kind of mixed actually.
  • #23,807
  • Oct 7, 2023 12:43pm Oct 7, 2023 12:43pm
I do find it interesting that when you make a prop firm offering, people generally look at it whether it will work (you will be number 1) or it would work (you will be 0). Never really in between.

I have been toying with the idea as well of creating a data factory, thousands of demo traders producing data that is based on a set of rules but not identical in order to fuel machine learning. It wouldn't be appealing to those in first world countries as the earning initially would be small but it would be a good living for those in a part of the world where consumerism hasn't ruined everything.

So if you can build a data driven solution, all you need is to find people to create that data and make it randomized inside the rule set for you. Win win situation and without the marketing fuss of social media channels / me having to tell everyone off in support chat.
  • #23,808
  • Oct 7, 2023 12:54pm Oct 7, 2023 12:54pm
Quoting Takisd
I do find it interesting that when you make a prop firm offering, people generally look at it whether it will work (you will be number 1) or it would work (you will be 0). Never really in between. I have been toying with the idea as well of creating a data factory, thousands of demo traders producing data that is based on a set of rules but not identical in order to fuel machine learning. It wouldn't be appealing to those in first world countries as the earning initially would be small but it would be a good living for those in a part of the world...
I think it is too hard for any non professional trader and non quant to make any use of orderflow data from funded traders. It could be so much random and across multiple shifts/structure breaks on different market behaviors, that you cannot get out of it, with a very sure method to profit constantly out of it. Only if you are a market maker and there is the need to do so, you need to outsmart, then you are forced to do so. Otherwise it is AT LEAST as difficult to find a very profitable strategy on the market itself. And when you already have a very profitable strategy on the market itself, then why not trading this for yourself, or start a hedge fund etc. I am pretty sure everyone is in the rabbit hole to find strategies to make orderflow trading very profitable. It cannot be except you are genius. But if you are....then why this mess at all...only if you are forced to do so, like in a big bank. There you have no choice. Outsmart and make flow profitable or starving, and cannot compete anymore and the bid ask business with reasonable volume on each side.
  • #23,809
  • Oct 7, 2023 12:56pm Oct 7, 2023 12:56pm
Quoting TrAndy1
{quote} I think it is too hard for any non professional trader and non quant to make any use of orderflow data from funded traders. It could be so much random and across multiple shifts/structure breaks on different market behaviors, that you cannot get out of it, with a very sure method to profit constantly out of it. Only if you are a market maket and there is the need to do so, you need to outsmart, then you are forced to do so. Otherwise it is AT LEAST as difficult to find a very profitable strategy on the market itself. And when you already...
Quants traditionally are using the market data to make decisions Andy.

I am looking at making decisions only on the actions of a person, not what the market is doing. Its not as hard as you think but still it is difficult. But you seem very insistent that I, or taking me out of the equation, anyone here, can do it.

Thats very presumptuous.
  • #23,810
  • Edited 1:11pm Oct 7, 2023 12:57pm | Edited 1:11pm
Quoting Takisd
{quote} This guy is a scamming dirt bag. So I will not be clicking this video. Source: He requests payment for positive reviews of prop firms.
Maybe you are right. I did not check this. But it is not all bad what he is saying and demonstrating. I have watched all mentioned videos to the end. My two cents.
  • #23,811
  • Oct 7, 2023 1:01pm Oct 7, 2023 1:01pm
Quoting Takisd
{quote} Quants traditionally are using the market data to make decisions Andy. I am looking at making decisions only on the actions of a person, not what the market is doing. Its not as hard as you think but still it is difficult. But you seem very insistent that I, or taking me out of the equation, anyone here, can do it. Thats very presumptuous.
From my understanding, there are so many different styles of trading and so many different types of traders with so many different symbols and timeframes etc., that this is like analyzing the market itself. As also most of this trading also is like random trading. So anyone who says he can develop successful strategies out of this, it is like developing a very good strategy on the market itself. That is from my understanding. Because you need to find that group of traders who are constantly wrongdoing in a certain way that you can find systematic rules out of it, to make it profitable for the prop firm. You cannot. This is like analyzing all market data itself, in the end. Difficult to explain my view, but this is my understanding.

Let me say it in that way. The human trader is mostly discretionary trading the markets mostly, so he is not constant in what he is doing. So how you can find a pattern on it based from the underlying market, to make consistently profitable for your own, based on all the orderflow data. This is like a scheme put on the market itself. Kind of different market, because of traders trades data, but still behaving like the market in a kind of way. There is no such logic you can pull out info, to profit from it. That is at least as difficult as finding very consistent strategies on the market itself. Everyone trying this needs to be a genius. Impossible for the prop firms. Only some big banks with huge reserves of PHDs as staff can maybe find something. But then again there is always risk, as market are dynamic and so all the traders are dynamic too in what they are doing. They are also trying to adapt on markets. This is very (!) dynamic. Like analyzing the dynamics (of traders behavior) on the dynamics (of the changing markets).

[That is like trying to shoot with a gun at a mile distance on a bee in the sky who is moving fast and constantly, but very erratic (the bee flying around).]
  • #23,812
  • Oct 7, 2023 1:23pm Oct 7, 2023 1:23pm
Quoting Capablanca
5ers already posted saying that their operations are not affected (they are in Israel). https://twitter.com/Gil_BenHur/statu...73142589612492
and this from twitter, they must be doing something correctly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5%ers NAS.PNG Size: 9 KB
  • #23,813
  • Oct 7, 2023 1:28pm Oct 7, 2023 1:28pm
Quoting Capablanca
{quote} No. On Monday will be a week and no payout yet. Keep us poster about yours, please
have u tried following it up on discord? pls do so.
  • #23,814
  • Oct 7, 2023 1:30pm Oct 7, 2023 1:30pm
Quoting Takisd
I do find it interesting that when you make a prop firm offering, people generally look at it whether it will work (you will be number 1) or it would work (you will be 0). Never really in between. I have been toying with the idea as well of creating a data factory, thousands of demo traders producing data that is based on a set of rules but not identical in order to fuel machine learning. It wouldn't be appealing to those in first world countries as the earning initially would be small but it would be a good living for those in a part of the world...
Your machine learning on this orderflow data is like curve fitting. Of course you will find something when backtesting and optimizing, like always. But this is highly likely non predictive. As I said because the market is dynamic and also the traders behavior how they trade is also dynamic, but different in its dynamics than the market. So the chance to get a non predictive strategy is even higher I would say. Nearly impossible to find a consistent strategy out of this. It is all curve fitting when everyone is looking on those data to "find" something. One can only find something on past data, but that does not mean it will work (in that way) on futures data (on more trades).
  • #23,815
  • Oct 7, 2023 1:34pm Oct 7, 2023 1:34pm
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} and this from twitter, they must be doing something correctly:{image}
Jeez, you need to look at the profit goals to meet here. You need to flip two times first. So the score is less than 1. This is like daylight robbery and pure crime. You can also give me $100 bucks and I will exchange it with $50 at once. This is sure loss. Better you trade on personal account here instead of this offer. This prop is criminal.
  • #23,816
  • Oct 7, 2023 1:40pm Oct 7, 2023 1:40pm
Even for the systematic traders with a rule based strategy, all 100% objective. Even you pull all this strategy its trade data in your backtesting machine learning AI or anything. It is so hard to find a strategy on a given strategy itself. I tried it hard in the past. Usually always 100% you get a non predictive but very good curve fitted strategy out of it. You cannot just create strategies out of strategies. The same and even much harder does apply for discretionary traders, as they are less systematic in their trading, and so there are these trades from them. Even more difficult to find predictive rules. This is a rabbit hole clearly, I would say. Based on my understanding.
  • #23,817
  • Oct 7, 2023 1:44pm Oct 7, 2023 1:44pm
Otherwise everyone would or could pull out of a profitable strategy the trade data as input data for the outsmarted strategy to be found and feed the machine learning AI or genetic programming backtesting / optimizing software and then create an even better strategy. It does not work that way. You cannot just create a strategy out of another strategy and then again and again. You only get curve fitted results, with no meaning for the future. I tried this in many ways in the past too, so I know from what I speaking here.

You need to know exactly what you are doing when you are testing and optimizing. Thus you need a lot of true market knowledge already to improve any strategy. This is same difficult like to find a very profitable and consistent strategy out of the market itself. I hope I have it shown now, and everyone has understood what I said.
  • #23,818
  • Oct 7, 2023 1:58pm Oct 7, 2023 1:58pm
All what I see what is doable to find little tiny bit better entry and exit of those orderflow datas. So that it can cover the slippage and transaction costs involved for the prop firm when they are copying trades, so doing A-booking. That is all what can be done, as nearly all traders do not have a toxic orderflow so little bit better entries and exits should be possible. But there is again some risk here. It is not free lunch at all, even if done it correctly. So again the prop firm needs to ask itself why then doing this. There is always the risk for the prop b-booking profitable traders and A-booking loosing traders. That is why I think even MFF had only b-booking done. You can forget what they done on A-booking. By far to tiny in the amount of trades that could be any meaningful. So why then analyzing orderflow data, it can only make it worse, much worse. My described model some posts earlier would work and could also for robust for the longterm view of any prop. The actual model of exchanging floating fees incomes with fixed percentage profit split on payouts is a much riskier business model. It all depends how much is in the pot and how much goes out here.
  • #23,819
  • Oct 7, 2023 2:19pm Oct 7, 2023 2:19pm
Quoting Takisd
I have been contemplating opening a new style of prop firm. Full transparency including all the dealing elements (without exposing strategy) and transparency on what the company is making/losing from trading. The problem is in order to avoid the CFTC I Would have to ignore US citizens because the CFTC, regardless of virtual, sim or geo location, requires these entities to be registered with them. NO MATTER WHAT. The same goes for 5ers ftmo etc who arent in the US or Canada. That tidal wave is coming, you can see it on the horizon. In all you guys...
Well yeah, I'm just a free livin mouse clicking whore after all. Why not?!
  • #23,820
  • Oct 7, 2023 2:29pm Oct 7, 2023 2:29pm
Quoting Takisd
{quote} There are many order flow strategies that are not a book. A book is copying a traders trade back to back. What if you have behavioral analysis to do other things to the trade in order to make money. For example, what if you net and hedge the entire db? Scalper flow is useless in this instance, but if you have plenty of regular flow you can effectively make more money than the winning traders will make. It requires you to accurately shape the flow that is produced and have a strategy around it. I have spent the last 6ish months working on...
Darwinex have been working on this for years and they nearly got there. However they have a massive but very obvious blind spot which I find remarkable they haven't covered and can only put it down to arrogance... endemic in this industry.
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