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MTF Engulf / Engulf fail

  • #241
  • Oct 4, 2023 8:49pm Oct 4, 2023 8:49pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} the h4 close can give some hint. {image}
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} there will always be road blocks in ltf. if price goes up, need not wait to hit sl. can judge and see whether to exit if breaking ltf bearish engulf. if in doubt refer to htf frame. htf price went up from d1 bullish engulf and my target is d1 bearish engulf. same thing, i need not to wait for price to reach the target. because the target is just for direction. i can profit before reaching target anytime. now expect to target the d1 bullish engulf. {image}
started from jpy intervention.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #242
  • Oct 4, 2023 9:00pm Oct 4, 2023 9:00pm
run away without me.
now road block.
let's see whether will reach target or not.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #243
  • Oct 4, 2023 9:08pm Oct 4, 2023 9:08pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} I like this top down approach by the OP very much (1) Go to htf w1, d1, h4 and find engulf for the price direction flow. You can still be wrong 1% of the time .... If you do not know the Weekly engulfing that is a Weekly Control Candle {image} ...
Nice image and terminology ' Weekly Control Candle ' Deja Vu from Strat's PASR thread
  • #244
  • Oct 4, 2023 10:37pm Oct 4, 2023 10:37pm
I think if not greed,
intraday everyday can get 20-50 pips nicely.
just focus session start 7/8am and until 11 am at each session.
15m and 1 h swing point.
PA Return Today: na
  • #245
  • Oct 5, 2023 12:59am Oct 5, 2023 12:59am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} {quote} result loss reclaimed with profit {image}
Nice trading...
It seems you are somewhat aggresive trader triggering without confirmation. Personally, I'd like to wait until bottom range is broken down with a strong breakout candle. As there is a another road block underneath, I'd like to take a quick profit. Steve may agree as he's much more conservative....
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(M15)
Sorry for the hindesight chart and comment but everybody in FF just love hindsight view you know....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #246
  • Oct 5, 2023 2:19am Oct 5, 2023 2:19am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Nice trading... It seems you are somewhat aggresive trader triggering without confirmation. Personally, I'd like to wait until bottom range is broken down with a strong breakout candle. As there is a another road block underneath, I'd like to take a quick profit. Steve may agree as he's much more conservative.... {image}(M15) Sorry for the hindesight chart and comment but everybody in FF just love hindsight view you know....
if you can digest my point 3 of post 1, then you may understand.
i show only one time frame.
but i flip through w1 all the way down to m1 to make a decision.
my entries can be in m15, m5 or m1.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #247
  • Oct 5, 2023 3:28am Oct 5, 2023 3:28am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} if you can digest my point 3 of post 1, then you may understand. i show only one time frame. but i flip through w1 all the way down to m1 to make a decision. my entries can be in m15, m5 or m1.
Ok, I see. I also flip through multiple timeframes for analysis but as my entry is mostly M1 or M5, I found Daily and higher timeframes are overkill and not really helpful. It's especially true to futures traders as unlike forex, daily and higher timeframe charts are often not consistent due to rolling over.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #248
  • Edited 4:55am Oct 5, 2023 4:43am | Edited 4:55am
now to illustrate.
at the bottom it was approximately the mn, w1 and d1 low.
i try to reduce the big zone way way back to the left using h1 engulf here.
then i further reduce some m15 blue and red engulf zone.
the bullish m15 may be around the h1, or the m15 may be inside the h1.
this is the zone to watch.

you see that the first entry price came down to test h1 engulf, then came down again to test m15 engulf and bounced.
the second entry i entered when price touched the m15.
if you are able to see, there is also a m5 engulf touching the m15 engulf.
there is no limit, you can further reduce to m1 engulf, but you know it is not that stable.
once you see them all pointing in one direction within the same zone, that's the hint.
so many bullish engulfs here don't have watch any more price action.
just have to watch your SL.

we can see that they are ranging as usual if there is going to be a big movement later.
if price breaks the red bearish engulf, it is engulf fail, expecting price to move further up.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #249
  • Oct 5, 2023 10:59am Oct 5, 2023 10:59am
@ITB, could you please show your EU chart for HTF to LTF how you projecting the current move?
If you believe in yourself anything is possible !!
  • #250
  • Edited 6:28pm Oct 5, 2023 6:03pm | Edited 6:28pm
Multiple timeframes are necessary.

It is not overkill. It helps ensure your trade goes your way with higher probability.

You only need to do monthly once a month
Weekly once a week
Daily once a day (1h before you trade)
From here, your ltf setup.

And so what if it is a hassle, the money it gives is simply good.

Example euro this week

Daily engulf to south confirmed

https://www.tradingview.com/x/dERlFzJ1

We know what happens next is pull back. By that alone
Wednesday Thursday we know price will go up.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/UseVtAji

Pull back

Now that it has confirmed based on in the box's rules, next later is a possible short day. Just note red news.
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Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #251
  • Edited 7:35pm Oct 5, 2023 6:40pm | Edited 7:35pm
Quoting imifx
@ITB, could you please show your EU chart for HTF to LTF how you projecting the current move?
direction bias

in order for w1 to travel from top to bottom
it has to overcome the road block of d1.
likewise in order for d1 to travel from one engulf to another
it has to overcome the road block of h4.
the same things happen until all the way down to m1
the smaller the time frame, the more engulfs you see
it will come to a point that will cause you confusion.
so do this until you are happy with the time frame
that you want to stop at so it won't cause you headache.
each time frame has its own story to tell, and everyone sees things differently.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #252
  • Oct 5, 2023 8:41pm Oct 5, 2023 8:41pm
so what does the above road map tells you?
down is direction bias
up is retracement
it's up to you whether you want to trade with the direction or retracement.
it does not mean every single time i trade with direction.
for example gold retracement can be more than 100 pips.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #253
  • Oct 5, 2023 11:44pm Oct 5, 2023 11:44pm
Quoting Inthebox
now to illustrate. at the bottom it was approximately the mn, w1 and d1 low. i try to reduce the big zone way way back to the left using h1 engulf here. then i further reduce some m15 blue and red engulf zone. the bullish m15 may be around the h1, or the m15 may be inside the h1. this is the zone to watch. you see that the first entry price came down to test h1 engulf, then came down again to test m15 engulf and bounced. the second entry i entered when price touched the m15. if you are able to see, there is also a m5 engulf touching the m15 engulf....
further buy within htf engulf zone.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #254
  • Oct 6, 2023 5:22am Oct 6, 2023 5:22am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} further buy within htf engulf zone. {image}
keep on buying
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #255
  • Oct 6, 2023 5:50am Oct 6, 2023 5:50am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} direction bias in order for w1 to travel from top to bottom it has to overcome the road block of d1. likewise in order for d1 to travel from one engulf to another it has to overcome the road block of h4. the same things happen until all the way down to m1 the smaller the time frame, the more engulfs you see it will come to a point that will cause you confusion. so do this until you are happy with the time frame that you want to stop at so it won't cause you headache. each time frame has its own story to tell, and everyone sees things differently....
to continue this.
price just moves from one engulf to another engulf.
see the price movement on the blue engulf.
why price after touching the higher blue engulf did not come down?
because it had unfinished business above.
the grey engulf is just above it.
same thing from grey engulf to grey engulf.
are you able to see how price moves on hindsight?
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #256
  • Oct 6, 2023 7:07am Oct 6, 2023 7:07am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} direction bias in order for w1 to travel from top to bottom it has to overcome the road block of d1. likewise in order for d1 to travel from one engulf to another it has to overcome the road block of h4. the same things happen until all the way down to m1 the smaller the time frame, the more engulfs you see it will come to a point that will cause you confusion. so do this until you are happy with the time frame that you want to stop at so it won't cause you headache. each time frame has its own story to tell, and everyone sees things differently....
Thanks, a lot.
If you believe in yourself anything is possible !!
  • #257
  • Oct 6, 2023 7:12am Oct 6, 2023 7:12am
Quoting Inthebox
so what does the above road map tells you? down is direction bias up is retracement it's up to you whether you want to trade with the direction or retracement. it does not mean every single time i trade with direction. for example gold retracement can be more than 100 pips.
many thanks for the education,

if I am not wrong, the retracement may be a reversal and that point its very hard to recognize the early trend change direction, what's your opinion here.
If you believe in yourself anything is possible !!
  • #258
  • Oct 6, 2023 7:22am Oct 6, 2023 7:22am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} to continue this. price just moves from one engulf to another engulf. see the price movement on the blue engulf. why price after touching the higher blue engulf did not come down? because it had unfinished business above. the grey engulf is just above it. same thing from grey engulf to grey engulf. are you able to see how price moves on hindsight? {image}
I see it and thanks again for this wonderful learning.
If you believe in yourself anything is possible !!
  • #259
  • Oct 6, 2023 8:05am Oct 6, 2023 8:05am
Quoting imifx
{quote} many thanks for the education, if I am not wrong, the retracement may be a reversal and that point its very hard to recognize the early trend change direction, what's your opinion here.
reversal of htf trend is always difficult.
there will be ranging going on, sometimes even for days.
there is no trend, only can trade the range.
until you see the breakout of range.
gold is now around monthly low, is it not?
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #260
  • Oct 6, 2023 8:20am Oct 6, 2023 8:20am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} reversal of htf trend is always difficult. there will be ranging going on, sometimes even for days. there is no trend, only can trade the range. until you see the breakout of range. gold is now around monthly low, is it not?
Great...

and yes, gold is at M low and at very interesting point
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If you believe in yourself anything is possible !!
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