NZD - rate statement - help | Forex Factory

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NZD - rate statement - help

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 6, 2007 2:33pm Jun 6, 2007 2:33pm
Just received a market commentary stating that it is expected a 0.25% hike, raising to 8%.

FF's calendar shows no-hike expected....

1)- Which one is right?

2)- Is a hike already priced in?

Thanks a lot

César
  • #2
  • Jun 6, 2007 2:53pm Jun 6, 2007 2:53pm
I think it's partially priced in off rumors. I do expect a decent move though if it is raised. Likely drag aud with for the ride.
  • #3
  • Jun 6, 2007 3:00pm Jun 6, 2007 3:00pm
Quoting shadeslay
I think it's partially priced in off rumors. I do expect a decent move though if it is raised. Likely drag aud with for the ride.
But why does FF's calendar shows no-hike expected? Was there some change in the expectations or is it just wrong?
  • #4
  • Jun 6, 2007 3:07pm Jun 6, 2007 3:07pm
Not sure why, maybe they don't consider it a valid rumor. I can't find any of the major news sources saying a hike is expected either, could be they forecast more off fundamentals then rumors.
  • #5
  • Jun 6, 2007 3:07pm Jun 6, 2007 3:07pm
There are different consensus numbers in different sources. I cannot say and don't know where FF gets their #'s from.

I will give a word of advice. Be careful. I got burned on the last hike. Market reacted as a short instead of a long.


As a layperson, doesn't 8% sound high to people? I wonder if New Zealand is effected by oil prices in their inflation numbers and cost like the US is. I heard food prices have gone up 7% last year in the US somewhere. Can't remember the source now.
  • #6
  • Jun 6, 2007 3:13pm Jun 6, 2007 3:13pm
Stumbled on this site, not good with fundamentals yet so most of it looks like mumbo jumbo to me, but it goes over all that.

http://www.interest.co.nz/news.asp

Also theres bank of newzeland

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/
  • #7
  • Jun 6, 2007 3:13pm Jun 6, 2007 3:13pm
Quoting techno79
There are different consensus numbers in different sources. I cannot say and don't know where FF gets their #'s from.

I will give a word of advice. Be careful. I got burned on the last hike. Market reacted as a short instead of a long.


As a layperson, doesn't 8% sound high to people? I wonder if New Zealand is effected by oil prices in their inflation numbers and cost like the US is. I heard food prices have gone up 7% last year in the US somewhere. Can't remember the source now.
Thanks techno... I'm not jumping before, I just wanted to check the information.... Although a hike may be already priced in and can possibly inspire a down move, there will be increasing interest in NZD via carry trades.... Once this correction in the NYC Stock market gets to an end, NZDJPY will be an even-more attractive pair...

Going for dips in NJ would be my plan for the next day(s)
  • #8
  • Jun 6, 2007 3:54pm Jun 6, 2007 3:54pm
Anyone know what to expect if it comes out as expected?
  • #9
  • Jun 6, 2007 4:02pm Jun 6, 2007 4:02pm
Interest Rate up to 8%
any idea where nzd/usd is going? does it depend on the wording in the statement?
  • #10
  • Jun 6, 2007 4:14pm Jun 6, 2007 4:14pm
with this suprise i keep going with my buy dip strategy def stupdid to go against the trend just have patience before jumping in the market will probably chase news traders stops and then reverse i have placed a buy stop at 0.7505

revoke
  • #11
  • Jun 6, 2007 4:23pm Jun 6, 2007 4:23pm
did anybody trade that on OANDA and get Locked OUT?
I totally placed a buy and it was completely ignored...no record of it at ALL
I chatted with live help

wondered if anybody else had that
taking series 3 and 34
  • #12
  • Jun 6, 2007 5:14pm Jun 6, 2007 5:14pm
Had no problems on Oanda here...spread widened to 40 pips for a few seconds, but that's about it
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #13
  • Jun 6, 2007 7:37pm Jun 6, 2007 7:37pm
This is one tricky pair, imo....

I like to go for big pips, not 10ies or 15ies... What you guys, used to NZD fundamentals and all, think? NZDUSD is a 0.8000 or a 0.7000 after this rate hike?

Is this hike toppish for 2007 and down we go?
  • #14
  • Jun 6, 2007 8:24pm Jun 6, 2007 8:24pm
Quoting cesarnc
This is one tricky pair, imo....

I like to go for big pips, not 10ies or 15ies... What you guys, used to NZD fundamentals and all, think? NZDUSD is a 0.8000 or a 0.7000 after this rate hike?

Is this hike toppish for 2007 and down we go?

I think there's gonna be somewhat of a repeat of what happened the last time they raised rates. It went up big, then sold of the previous day during London hours, which turned out to be a really good trade for a couple of weeks. High rates are bad for the Kiwi and the RBNZ knows this. They just have to keep raising to try and slow growth.
  • #15
  • Jun 6, 2007 8:43pm Jun 6, 2007 8:43pm
Quoting quantas33
I think there's gonna be somewhat of a repeat of what happened the last time they raised rates. It went up big, then sold of the previous day during London hours, which turned out to be a really good trade for a couple of weeks. High rates are bad for the Kiwi and the RBNZ knows this. They just have to keep raising to try and slow growth.
Thanks... gonna lookout by London
  • #16
  • Last Post: Jun 8, 2007 1:51pm Jun 8, 2007 1:51pm
only thing i know is that we need to se lower lows in order to fade the upside ofcourse daytraders dont care but if we se 50 pips more (lets say to 0,7650) i se more upside to come, im locking in profit here by closing half, leaving my position and awaiting new considerration


revoke
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