RBA Market probability
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
- #108,181
- Oct 2, 2023 10:10pm Oct 2, 2023 10:10pm
- Temporarily Suspended | Joined Jul 2021 | 3,677 Posts
RBA Market probability
- #108,182
- Oct 2, 2023 10:17pm Oct 2, 2023 10:17pm
- Joined Oct 2019 | Status: Trader | 2,448 Posts
Master your mind. Master Trading.
- #108,183
- Oct 4, 2023 3:04pm Oct 4, 2023 3:04pm
- Joined Oct 2019 | Status: Trader | 2,448 Posts
Master your mind. Master Trading.
- #108,190
- Oct 14, 2023 9:29pm Oct 14, 2023 9:29pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Gold Again | 10,567 Posts
Hi guys, AUD/USD is one of the pairs I'm interested in, just wanted to drop by and say hi! Hope everyone is seeing blue!
And here is a tip on seeing things, visualize this while doing your morning Yoga.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
- #108,191
- Oct 15, 2023 9:49pm Oct 15, 2023 9:49pm
- Joined Oct 2019 | Status: Trader | 2,448 Posts
Master your mind. Master Trading.
- #108,195
- Nov 3, 2023 7:48pm Nov 3, 2023 7:48pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Gold Again | 10,567 Posts
Aw, that's cute, pay attention next time!
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
- #108,196
- Nov 3, 2023 8:48pm Nov 3, 2023 8:48pm
- Joined Aug 2018 | Status: Trader | 7,847 Posts
{quote} My doctor just told me that I was color blind, that came right out of the yellow.
- #108,197
- Nov 3, 2023 10:58pm Nov 3, 2023 10:58pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Gold Again | 10,567 Posts
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
- #108,198
- Nov 4, 2023 4:10am Nov 4, 2023 4:10am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Gold Again | 10,567 Posts
{quote} Can you explain the logic behind deciding to sell without the benefit of the hindsight? {image}
First, one must establish the weekly bias, here we see that the previous 2 weekly candles are Green and the most recent close, prior to the week just closed of course, is above many week's highs and closes.
And then it's a case of observing the price action on the 4-Hour chart; is it above the 20 EMA? Easy to recognize. Does the close meet the criteria of the 4-Bar Fractal? The indicator will print a STAR to highlight that market condition, which can also be the entry signal, depends how you want to trade.
Hopefully that makes sense, good luck.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
- #108,200
- Nov 5, 2023 1:34am Nov 5, 2023 1:34am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Gold Again | 10,567 Posts
{quote} So, in my post #108197, those conditions were met when the star indicator printed the star where you went short?
I'm excited for this week coming, watch for any Monday + Tuesday retracements to form the weekly wick low.
All the USD pairs show same pattern, obviously, vs CAD, CHF, and JPY, it's the other way around.
Consider this analysis: USD vs AUD and by proxy NZD. Thanks to http://www.marctomarket.com/2023/11/...ts-turned.html
An inflection point may have been reached last week. Despite, Chair Powell's insistence that the Fed did not adopt an easing bias and confirmed that there is still no talk of a cut, the market knows better. The implied yield of December 2024 Fed funds futures contract is about 4.45%, which is to say, the market is discounting not only the two cuts in the Fed's September projections, but a third cut, and the risk again (~60%), of a fourth cut. The first cut is now fully discounted by the end of Q2 24. The disappointing employment report pushed on an open door, sending US rates and the greenback lower.
The Australian dollar rallied to its best level in two months ahead of the weekend, amid the broader US dollar pullback and speculation of a possible RBA rate hike next week. The momentum indicators are trending higher. After six previous attempts since mid-August, the Aussie managed to close above $0.6500, not simply trade above it on an intraday basis. Still, it traded nearly three standard-deviations above its 20-day moving average (~$0.6525) and settled higher than two standard-deviations (~$0.6470). After matching its longest advance since January (three weeks) and rising about 2.8% last week (the largest weekly rally since last November), it looks vulnerable if the RBA does not lift rates.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.