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  • #181,001
  • Sep 28, 2023 4:04am Sep 28, 2023 4:04am
If we don't get reversal pattern H1 pointing to 1.0474, I am going to focus solely on 1.0430.
Atm we have a potential left wing for a Bfly buy, let's see if market keeps the pattern intact.
If we get further upside that destroys the pattern I will be looking to sell 1.0560, 50 pips sl, targeting same levels.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #181,002
  • Edited 5:19am Sep 28, 2023 4:15am | Edited 5:19am
The month is coming to an end. If price doesn't close below 1.0500 (better still 1.0488) today I won't be selling because October's pivot might be somewhere around 1.0700 or slightly above that and price will hit it at some point. Taking 400 pips as tentative monthly range and 1.07xx as new month's pivot, I will hunt buys for the purpose of corrective price movements.

I think there is a range of 1.0500 to 1.1000 at play here. I will be dynamic and watch carefully as things unfold, switching sides quickly as price gives me clues.

NB: pay attention to US GDP values today. That migbt be the reason to quickly dip to 1.0400 area or quickly fly to 1.0576 area.
  • #181,003
  • Sep 28, 2023 4:29am Sep 28, 2023 4:29am
Quoting pedro319
If we don't get reversal pattern H1 pointing to 1.0474, I am going to focus solely on 1.0430. Atm we have a potential left wing for a Bfly buy, let's see if market keeps the pattern intact. If we get further upside that destroys the pattern I will be looking to sell 1.0560, 50 pips sl, targeting same levels.
Can I bother you with chart showing potential butterfly?
  • #181,004
  • Sep 28, 2023 4:32am Sep 28, 2023 4:32am
Quoting fxcontest
Profit Shrunk Long, Hope not get Stopout again {image}
SL BE+1 Hit, Repeat Long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDmM30 2809a.png Size: 9 KB
Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #181,005
  • Sep 28, 2023 4:39am Sep 28, 2023 4:39am
Quoting fxcontest
{quote} SL BE+1 Hit, Repeat Long {image}
Where is your TP?
  • #181,006
  • Sep 28, 2023 4:52am Sep 28, 2023 4:52am
Quoting fxcontest
{quote} SL BE+1 Hit, Repeat Long {image}
Start Collecting TP, green pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDmM30 2809c.png Size: 10 KB
Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #181,007
  • Sep 28, 2023 5:06am Sep 28, 2023 5:06am
Does anyone understand the Forecasting process? All the states seem to have a forecast at or around previous number. Germany consolidated is significant lower than Previous.
State numbers that are now released are mostly better than anticipated.
Now the big question... will German CPI consolidated be better than forecast as well or do they have different forecast basis there?!?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 15 KB
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  • #181,008
  • Sep 28, 2023 5:13am Sep 28, 2023 5:13am
Quoting Brainafk
Does anyone understand the Forecasting process? All the states seem to have a forecast at or around previous number. Germany consolidated is significant lower than Previous. State numbers that are now released are mostly better than anticipated. Now the big question... will German CPI consolidated be better than forecast as well or do they have different forecast basis there?!? {image}
I don't think we have all states on the calendar and that we just have to wait the release which should not be above the previous of 6.1 percent if I consider today's numbers.

1 year has 12 months, so you have to go back and make an average of 12 previous releases and see what happens, but again I think we are missing something here
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  • #181,009
  • Sep 28, 2023 5:15am Sep 28, 2023 5:15am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} I don't think we have all states on the calendar and that we just have to wait the release which should not be above the previous of 6.1 percent if I consider today's numbers. 1 year has 12 months, so you have to go back and make an average of 12 previous releases and see what happens, but again I think we are missing something here
If i understood you correctly, your interpretation is that the State FCST rolls-up into the Consolidated forecast. Therefore, lower state ACT numbers should yield lower Consolidated ACT numbers (ignoring the non-published part for now)?
Don't follow my trades. Challenge my Analysis!
  • #181,010
  • Sep 28, 2023 5:16am Sep 28, 2023 5:16am
Quoting fxcontest
{quote} Start Collecting TP, green pips {image}
TPed All
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  • #181,011
  • Sep 28, 2023 5:17am Sep 28, 2023 5:17am
Quoting Lenart
{quote} Can I bother you with chart showing potential butterfly?
I will next time, this one is gone.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #181,012
  • Sep 28, 2023 5:29am Sep 28, 2023 5:29am
Meanwhile, on H1...

I am marking 1.0514 as nearest resistance on this timeframe...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-H1.png Size: 15 KB
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  • #181,013
  • Sep 28, 2023 5:33am Sep 28, 2023 5:33am
Quoting Brainafk
Does anyone understand the Forecasting process? All the states seem to have a forecast at or around previous number. Germany consolidated is significant lower than Previous. State numbers that are now released are mostly better than anticipated. Now the big question... will German CPI consolidated be better than forecast as well or do they have different forecast basis there?!? {image}
What is your source? Here on FF Calendar, the event is not that detailed. It would be interesting to see the details and/or compare two calendars...
  • #181,014
  • Sep 28, 2023 5:52am Sep 28, 2023 5:52am
Sorry, I was not able to follow the opening of the London markets due to the interruption of the internet service, but in any case, we have two opposite candles with increasingly high volumes, accompanied by a jump in the RSI to 40, an increase in buying volumes, and a decline in cumulative selling volumes, which supports the idea of buying with caution, and the target will be area 1. .0605 to 615 SL at breakdown low of the day
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E DEC23 (60 Minute) 2023_09_28 (1_44_14 PM).png Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E DEC23 (60 Minute) 2023_09_28 (1_44_34 PM).png Size: 17 KB
Volume is the soul of the market
  • #181,015
  • Sep 28, 2023 5:57am Sep 28, 2023 5:57am
Quoting Brainafk
{quote} If i understood you correctly, your interpretation is that the State FCST rolls-up into the Consolidated forecast. Therefore, lower state ACT numbers should yield lower Consolidated ACT numbers (ignoring the non-published part for now)?
Not exactly but it should be lower than the previous from my experience. You can enter inside ECB website and find out more about the calculation.

Also this might help too:
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Ec...dex/_node.html
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  • #181,016
  • Sep 28, 2023 6:03am Sep 28, 2023 6:03am
Quoting Lenart
{quote} What is your source? Here on FF Calendar, the event is not that detailed. It would be interesting to see the details and/or compare two calendars...
Im using the Investing.com Economic calendar.
Economic Calendar - Investing.com
Don't follow my trades. Challenge my Analysis!
  • #181,017
  • Sep 28, 2023 6:04am Sep 28, 2023 6:04am
Quoting Forexman1979
Sorry, I was not able to follow the opening of the London markets due to the interruption of the internet service, but in any case, we have two opposite candles with increasingly high volumes, accompanied by a jump in the RSI to 40, an increase in buying volumes, and a decline in cumulative selling volumes, which supports the idea of buying with caution, and the target will be area 1. .0605 to 615 SL at breakdown low of the day {image} {image}
Nice work!
I also agree with the assessment of your targeted area.
  • #181,018
  • Sep 28, 2023 6:05am Sep 28, 2023 6:05am
Pay attention to the small details. For the first time in a while price is closing candles above the daily pivot. That might mean some more upside in the works. All shaping up for tomorrow and ultimately the new month. Please this does not mean to buy here, as someone got confused yesterday. This is just an observation.
  • #181,019
  • Sep 28, 2023 6:09am Sep 28, 2023 6:09am
Quoting Brainafk
{quote} Im using the Investing.com Economic calendar. Economic Calendar - Investing.com
Thank you.
  • #181,020
  • Sep 28, 2023 6:28am Sep 28, 2023 6:28am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} I don't think we have all states on the calendar and that we just have to wait the release which should not be above the previous of 6.1 percent if I consider today's numbers. 1 year has 12 months, so you have to go back and make an average of 12 previous releases and see what happens, but again I think we are missing something here
I just read this interesting post as, if, ECB can't predict inflation then who can!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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