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  • #180,821
  • Sep 25, 2023 5:42pm Sep 25, 2023 5:42pm
Looks like the first round is over, you're tired ?
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"No pain no gain"
  • #180,822
  • Sep 25, 2023 5:56pm Sep 25, 2023 5:56pm
The second round has started...
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"No pain no gain"
  • #180,823
  • Sep 25, 2023 8:57pm Sep 25, 2023 8:57pm
EU broke 1.0615/1.0600 and now it should drop to 1.0516/1.0483 but it must stay below 1.0655. I believe we may see it ranging first before more downside - levels on the 15 min chart.

Daily volatility (range) - 48 pips

Significant news - US New Home Sales

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Green pips
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  • #180,824
  • Sep 25, 2023 11:11pm Sep 25, 2023 11:11pm
Quoting D7S
DXY has continuously been going up for the past 8+ weeks {image}
Yes because it is mainly driven by EURUSD, which went downwards the last 8 weeks lol
  • #180,825
  • Sep 25, 2023 11:45pm Sep 25, 2023 11:45pm
Looks like we are gonna break below the support and drop some more. Twenty pips minimum?
  • #180,826
  • Sep 25, 2023 11:50pm Sep 25, 2023 11:50pm
Quoting yvestrcz
Looks like we are gonna break below the support and drop some more. Twenty pips minimum?
I am watching at this point. I always knew and wrote here that they'd hit 1.0576 but the idiots delayed it all Friday and made me close all my shorts. Now price has hit it without me. They can as well make a run for 1.0540 area or even 1.0520 area. But this yearly pivot of 1.0576 should yield at least 100 pips North. I dont know what the robbers are planning.
  • #180,827
  • Sep 25, 2023 11:56pm Sep 25, 2023 11:56pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} I am watching at this point. I always knew and wrote here that they'd hit 1.0576 but the idiots delayed it all Friday and made me close all my shorts. Now price has hit it without me. They can as well make a run for 1.0540 area or even 1.0520 area. But this yearly pivot of 1.0576 should yield at least 100 pips North. I dont know what the robbers are planning.
I closed mine too as I had some buys covering and thought it woul go up a bit again...the gamble failed and didn't have SL on the buys so now feeling the pain

Want to try to cover before the ride back or a further drop but it will be due to retrace and retest at some point
  • #180,828
  • Sep 26, 2023 12:01am Sep 26, 2023 12:01am
Quoting yvestrcz
Looks like we are gonna break below the support and drop some more. Twenty pips minimum?
I am watching for the weekly volatility low of the range if we don't make a new weekly high at 0563 and daily vol target if we don't make a new daily high at 0548.
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  • #180,829
  • Sep 26, 2023 12:03am Sep 26, 2023 12:03am
Good morning, hope you are well. We have reached the support level for* today, hopefully we will see the bulls. But, right now, it's the bears that are doing well;
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  • #180,830
  • Edited 12:28am Sep 26, 2023 12:08am | Edited 12:28am
I was tempted to close at that time (1.0615), too, but decided to stick to my plan. Closed at 1.05815 and opened long as I expected retrace to previous resistance (target1 1.063, Target2 1.655).
PA didn't agree with me today, so I closed with small profit.
I think I'll wait a bit to see, how PA will look like today.
  • #180,831
  • Sep 26, 2023 12:32am Sep 26, 2023 12:32am
The bulls might be trying now, I think lol;
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  • #180,832
  • Sep 26, 2023 12:44am Sep 26, 2023 12:44am
Well done to the bulls today, they did alright;
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  • #180,833
  • Sep 26, 2023 12:47am Sep 26, 2023 12:47am
There is some support at 1.0560 and I don't want price closing below it. I bought 1.0571 and will target at least 1.0630.
  • #180,834
  • Sep 26, 2023 1:06am Sep 26, 2023 1:06am
My focus is around 1.0600 option expiries for today

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  • #180,835
  • Sep 26, 2023 1:08am Sep 26, 2023 1:08am
Speculate Long ?

End of Month = Rebalance
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Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #180,836
  • Sep 26, 2023 2:11am Sep 26, 2023 2:11am
Quick Weekly Outlook

  1. So far, it was an 11 weeks nonstop bearish drop towards shark completion level without any major correction! Therefore, any bullish correction could come suddenly and mercilessly. Beware!
  2. 1.0725 is my nearest resistance here and 1.0540 my nearest support.
  3. Estimated correction zone sits between 1.0850 and 1.1055. Anything higher than 1.1100 would cancel my idea of a correction and turn this back into bullish continuation.

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #180,837
  • Sep 26, 2023 2:37am Sep 26, 2023 2:37am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} Target met, taking profit and opening longs 50 pip sl.
Aiming at 1.0730-40 where I want to short again.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #180,838
  • Sep 26, 2023 2:48am Sep 26, 2023 2:48am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
My focus is around 1.0600 option expiries for today {image}
What is going to be the effect?
  • #180,839
  • Sep 26, 2023 3:23am Sep 26, 2023 3:23am
Quoting Forexman1979
{image} {image} {image}

Three Possible Areas for returne to downtrend
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Volume is the soul of the market
  • #180,840
  • Sep 26, 2023 3:27am Sep 26, 2023 3:27am
Quoting yvestrcz
{quote} What is going to be the effect?
It's due to the hedging from institutions writing options.

Let's say some bank has writen a large amount of EU calls with a strike price of 1.06 when euro was trading at 1.0580.
That gives its clients it sold those options to the right to buy EU at 1.06 before expiry date.

If EU suddenly turns north and approaches 1.06, it will force the bank to buy at that price or just below it, making that strike price act like a magnet. So in the case EU continues north to 1.065 or more and the client exercise its right to buy at 1.06, the bank limit its loses selling EU at the option price as it got the spot at that same price or even below.

Now, if EU remains below the strike (1.06), then it has an eventual loss if it bought higher but that is offset by the writing of the calls on which it made 100% as the calls expire worthless.
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