What's with this sharp move down - your personal insights? | Forex Factory

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What's with this sharp move down - your personal insights?

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 25, 2023 1:09pm Sep 25, 2023 1:09pm
Dear all, I would like to ask for your opinion and analysis for this specific situation with GOLD today (XAUUSD, 25 Sep. 2023).
According to my analysis, it looked like gold was about to go up today and I entered long as per picture (H1 white candle) with a TP as per picture. Please do not ask me why this TP level... not important at this moment.

My questions are:
- Would you have “predicted”/”expected” gold to turn down (sharply) as it did, after the end of this H1 candle?
- If this was indeed your expectation, what do you base your expectation on? Could you please provide some details of your reasoning and way of analysis.
- Could some indicator(s) have helped you expect this down move? Or do you use any other analysis approach?
Thank you all for any insights you may have on this down move, quite unexpected for me.
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  • #2
  • Sep 25, 2023 4:51pm Sep 25, 2023 4:51pm
There is a complete forum for Metals, and threads concerned only with Gold, ask those guys.

No one is interested in 1 lonely post...

https://www.metalsmine.com/thread/1100220-gold

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #3
  • Sep 26, 2023 1:29am Sep 26, 2023 1:29am
Quoting Erebus
There is a complete forum for Metals, and threads concerned only with Gold, ask those guys. No one is interested in 1 lonely post... https://www.metalsmine.com/thread/1100220-gold
Sorry, maybe my post was not very clear... I am not specifically asking about gold...In fact, I rarely trade gold.
I have seen similar/same chart patterns with many forex pairs and indices. Thus, my question is about this particular situation regardless of the underlying pair or metal...
I can also ask a different question: Would you enter short at the end of the last H4 and H1 white candles? Or maybe would you enter short on the candle just after the H1 white candle? If you do, why?
  • #4
  • Sep 26, 2023 2:12am Sep 26, 2023 2:12am
Quoting rosspetX
{quote} Sorry, maybe my post was not very clear... I am not specifically asking about gold...In fact, I rarely trade gold. I have seen similar/same chart patterns with many forex pairs and indices. Thus, my question is about this particular situation regardless of the underlying pair or metal... I can also ask a different question: Would you enter short at the end of the last H4 and H1 white candles? Or maybe would you enter short on the candle just after the H1 white candle? If you do, why?
All right, all right all right, well, I don't trade Gold, but I do have a crystal ball, let's take a look, shall we?

We know the USD is powering on by seeing the DXY chart, so tend to think bearish on Gold.

I use 50 EMA and 200 EMA to get an idea on the higher time frames, usually I start on Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour.

But for this, let's consider from Daily, 4-Hour and 1-Hour.

Now, Daily is like a yo-yo, up and down, just hitting on the 200 EMA, sort of a triangle as would be expected, but nice lower highs.

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The 4-Hour showing the yo-yo which looks wild, but my 5 EMA and 8 EMA pointing down.

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Over to the 1-Hour and my trusty indicator shows a SELL signal at exactly where you were buying, interesting. That would have been during late London session, can you remember? Was there news around that time?

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Good Luck

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #5
  • Sep 26, 2023 3:00am Sep 26, 2023 3:00am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Over to the 1-Hour and my trusty indicator shows a SELL signal at exactly where you were buying, interesting. That would have been during late London session, can you remember? Was there news around that time?
Thanks a lot for having taken the time to look at the charts and provide your opinion.
I do not remember any major news at that time and nothing appears in financial calendars.
Would you be able to give us a bit more details about your trusty indicator? I hope it is not a big secret... What does it do? What is it? What platform are you using?
  • #6
  • Sep 26, 2023 3:39am Sep 26, 2023 3:39am
No problem, not a big secret, I had it coded from an idea which I will post the explanation and source later.

To give you some ideas, and get you going, use this version of the indicator.

High Level Accuracy Method – “3-bar pattern Indicator/Alert” | Page 9 | Forex Factory

And the original concept to use it found here.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post14032565

But, since then, my theory is to define, analyze and make a judgement call of the current and overall TREND.

That's on the Weekly and Daily as mentioned; naturally the 4-Hour "should" generally be the same, but we want H4 retracements for entry signals.

So, instead of using 4-Bar Fractal indicator for continuation long and short entries, I do the Opposite, Sell on the Buy signal, and Sell on the Buy signal.

Part of the concept behind this is that I have read there only Breakout entry or Retracement entry, unless you count simple random or revenge trades as a viable method.

Not having much consistent luck with breakouts and fighting the phantom statistics of 80% of breakout fail, I wanted a method to enter on retracement.

I know all the usual stuff, Fibonacci, support and resistance, supply and demand, ADR, but who gives the signal and how?

Here is the 1st success trade this week: trade plan is to take up to 4 entries per retracement, stop loss & take profit at 1 x ADR(10)

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Standby for further links where I explained the 4-Bar Fractal method.

Cheers
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #7
  • Sep 26, 2023 11:54am Sep 26, 2023 11:54am
Quoting rosspetX
Dear all, I would like to ask for your opinion and analysis for this specific situation with GOLD today (XAUUSD, 25 Sep. 2023). According to my analysis, it looked like gold was about to go up today and I entered long as per picture (H1 white candle) with a TP as per picture. Please do not ask me why this TP level... not important at this moment. My questions are: - Would you have “predicted”/”expected” gold to turn down (sharply) as it did, after the end of this H1 candle? - If this was indeed your expectation, what do you base your expectation...
I am not that much expert at gold analysis but it seems the market is about to take the uptrend. Let’s see what happens!
  • #8
  • Sep 26, 2023 12:28pm Sep 26, 2023 12:28pm
Quoting rosspetX
{quote} Or maybe would you enter short on the candle just after the H1 white candle? If you do, why?
no indicator. i am using engulfing candle to explain.
when price retest the bearish engulf, it dropped to the bullish engulf and bounced back up to the bearish engulf and dropped.

now let's look at h1.
there was also a h1 bearish engulf within the h4 bearish engulf.
when price retest this zone, it dropped breaking through the h4 bullish engulf.
later price also dropped when retesting the h1 bearish engulf.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #9
  • Sep 26, 2023 12:35pm Sep 26, 2023 12:35pm
Quoting rosspetX
Dear all, I would like to ask for your opinion and analysis for this specific situation with GOLD today (XAUUSD, 25 Sep. 2023). According to my analysis, it looked like gold was about to go up today and I entered long as per picture (H1 white candle) with a TP as per picture. Please do not ask me why this TP level... not important at this moment. My questions are: - Would you have “predicted”/”expected” gold to turn down (sharply) as it did, after the end of this H1 candle? - If this was indeed your expectation, what do you base your expectation...
Gold can be impacted by 3 NY session opens... the NY forex open; the Comex open; and the NYSE open. With no red news and no meaningful price action on the 8 am ESTcandle, the NYSE open is the one to watch... if you go to the 30-minute chart you will notice that while the 9:30 (EST) NYSE open candle was up it never took out the highs of the NY forex open candle or the Comex open candle... in addition, it never took out the highs of the London/Asian session... so by 10 am (30 min after the NYSE open) the upward bias was looking weak and if it broke lower price would likely go to the previous low around 1915, which it did. Most of the time Gold moves are done by 11 a.m. EST. Was there any other way to predict the move... not that I am aware of. BTW, it would be tough to trade NY session GOLD solely off higher TF charts... you need to drop down to 15/5 min.
  • #10
  • Last Post: Sep 27, 2023 8:01am Sep 27, 2023 8:01am
Quoting FHNathaniel
{quote} I am not that much expert at gold analysis but it seems the market is about to take the uptrend. Let’s see what happens!
Read my signature, it seems to me that you may be mistaken about the direction that is, the not an expert is correct, good luck.

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
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