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  • #180,541
  • Sep 15, 2023 10:02am Sep 15, 2023 10:02am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} It finished, the bulls may be strong at 0635 but eventually 0600 will be reached. Waiting for next week too!
Hopefully we will get another pattern pointing there exactly.
I don't think retracement is finished but I could be wrong, after Bfly market usually retraces 61.8.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #180,542
  • Sep 15, 2023 10:04am Sep 15, 2023 10:04am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} We are not going to 1.06 today but next week, so best thing is to wait for this retracement to finish and open position on Monday or Tuesday.
Interestingly, as they have bought today and will pay weekend swaps today for holding over the weekend (if they keep up the buys) then Monday will also be a buy. Once Asia buys on Monday it will be a one-way trip again to 1.0700 and slightly above before the short kicks in.

As for the low at 1.0631 If I am correct, London hasn't touched it so price will go for it. Problem is now most sellers are waiting for it so it may not come as soon as desired. In my opinion, 1.0685 is only the first hurdle but price will break it to touch higher points like 1.0700-20 region. Today no shorts for me like I said last night since Asia and London bought. NY might take us to 1.0700 tonight if they please.

Yearly pivot is 1.0576. We should go there at some point.
  • #180,543
  • Sep 15, 2023 10:11am Sep 15, 2023 10:11am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Interestingly, as they have bought today and will pay weekend swaps today for holding over the weekend (if they keep up the buys) then Monday will also be a buy. Once Asia buys on Monday it will be a one-way trip again to 1.0700 and slightly above before the short kicks in. As for the low at 1.0631 If I am correct, London hasn't touched it so price will go for it. Problem is now most sellers are waiting for it so it may not come as soon as desired. In my opinion, 1.0685 is only the first hurdle but price will break it to touch higher points...
I like the way you explain the moves according to the sessions, never a strength in my trading.
I am looking at yearly pp as well and the bottom for a good while is 1.0450, 1.27 extension weekly.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #180,544
  • Sep 15, 2023 10:38am Sep 15, 2023 10:38am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} Gosto da maneira como você explica os movimentos de acordo com as sessões, o que nunca é um ponto forte na minha negociação. Estou olhando para pp anuais também e o mínimo por um bom tempo é 1,0450, extensão semanal de 1,27.
Not for me either. I have been making consistent profits on forex for just over 2 years. and my knowledge about sessions is still very low. Explanations like his help a lot. (I'm glad my trading system doesn't depend on sessions)
  • #180,545
  • Sep 15, 2023 10:45am Sep 15, 2023 10:45am
Quoting sammy454515
{quote} Not for me either. I have been making consistent profits on forex for just over 2 years. and my knowledge about sessions is still very low. Explanations like his help a lot. (I'm glad my trading system doesn't depend on sessions)
First time I read one of my posts in my own language!! Funny!!
I don't think I use them either or at least very often but there were occasions, where if I thought a move will continue through the Asian session, I would let it run and maximise the profits, rather than trying to jump back on it.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #180,546
  • Sep 15, 2023 11:45am Sep 15, 2023 11:45am
Quoting erap
{image} {image}
King of playmoney

Showing account history will not help the community...

Best
Chriss
  • #180,547
  • Edited 12:28pm Sep 15, 2023 12:04pm | Edited 12:28pm
Quoting Endoephemera
{quote} I doubt the big mofos pay swap or that it is any consideration. I'll keep my shorts on and pocket my swap and Monday the 100 PiPs.
Don't "think", read about it. What we think about swaps doesn't change what it means and whom it affects. In the past when USD-Euro interest rate differential was huge, swaps were a great deal. Did you ever wonder why Wednesdays were almost always a sell on EURUSD? Because heavy swaps were paid on buys X3. Other days the swaps were X1. Also ever wondered why Fridays were always a short? Because weekend swaps were paid and it was almost X3 like Wednesdays. Now a buy on Wednesday or Friday guaranteed higher prices because, in my understanding, the movers needed higher prices to offset the huge swaps they paid. This then meant that Thursday (after a buy Wednesday) or Monday (after a buy Friday) price would shoot up to offset those swaps. With time they varied the times when price had to shoot up so that people didn't get a straitforward trade.

Here: kindly check this link so you don't work with assumptions: https://www.elibrary.imf.org/display...5988/ch005.xml
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  • #180,548
  • Sep 15, 2023 12:07pm Sep 15, 2023 12:07pm
Hi,
my outlook: still overall bullish.
I have open positions from 0700 and 0660 and did close a position from 0800 in loss (covered by hedge from USD/CHF). I will open new longs within the turquoise rectange.
Overall tp is between All-Time-Fibo ( 38.2 = 1200 and old highs = 1100).
Chart:
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Happy weekend @ all
Chriss
  • #180,549
  • Sep 15, 2023 2:04pm Sep 15, 2023 2:04pm
DX will goes down next week.
  • #180,550
  • Sep 15, 2023 2:07pm Sep 15, 2023 2:07pm
Quoting bigiivan
DX will goes down next week.
Yup
  • #180,551
  • Sep 15, 2023 3:23pm Sep 15, 2023 3:23pm
done for the week! Happy weekend all!

i will be on holiday for the next two weeks so yea green pips to all and enjoy!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #180,552
  • Sep 15, 2023 4:34pm Sep 15, 2023 4:34pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} I never use direct levels.. I always assume a zone in my mind.. Since it is the H1 chart we are talking about, I always give +/- 10 pips playing room.. So 1.0670 is actually an "area": 1.0660/80... Your level 1.0685 is not that far away and can be merged into the level I shared... To me all the same... and I never bother for some deviation... so should you. I hope it answers... Best wishes
yes

but it touched 1.0685
iam strong with great muscles
are you?
each day 10%,,,, https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/1371538
  • #180,553
  • Sep 16, 2023 2:25am Sep 16, 2023 2:25am
EU dropped for another one week and stayed above 1.0635 (monthly support) but without a strong bounce. If that last level doesn't hold then we can see it extending even below its last lines of defence at 1.0610/1.0590 to 1.0516/1.0482. Resistance on the daily chart (below) is at 1.0768.

Weekly volatility (range) - 97 pips

Significant news - US Housing Starts Number, US Interest Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless Claims

Daily with 10, 50, 100 & 200 ma's and monthly support and resistance levels
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Have a great rest of the weekend
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #180,554
  • Sep 16, 2023 3:03am Sep 16, 2023 3:03am
Friday evening I was near closing my shorts and enter long.
I saw some momentum to the upside but I waited for the last H4 bar confirmation and it was negative so finally I didn't touch anything.

This morning I zoomed out to have a better and clearer view of what's going on and this is what I got.

a) Since the peak of July 18, we are in a very strong bear trend, well, this is now obvious.
b) There was a first ascending triangle broken to the downside, sign of trend continuation.
c) Followed by a strong counter-trend that was a test of the previous low around 1.0925, some support there turned into resistance.
d) The bear trend resumed until some consolidation this week forming a flag which was again broken to the downside.
e) With that flag break, this week we made a lower low on a weekly closing basis.

Usually the break of a continuation flag has the same length as the previous movement to that flag which bring us to 1.0545

Finally, one single H4 bar confirmed what I clearly see this morning. This bear trend hasn't said it all yet so I think that as long as the momentum continues to be so weak, I will wait a bit before turning bull.

I see 2 relevant levels for this week, 1.07, previous support that should now be resistance and which could be tested, and 1.0545 as potential target before some reversal.

My 2 cents.
Good luck to all.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #180,555
  • Sep 16, 2023 4:32am Sep 16, 2023 4:32am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Don't "think", read about it. What we think about swaps doesn't change what it means and whom it affects. In the past when USD-Euro interest rate differential was huge, swaps were a great deal. Did you ever wonder why Wednesdays were almost always a sell on EURUSD? Because heavy swaps were paid on buys X3. Other days the swaps were X1. Also ever wondered why Fridays were always a short? Because weekend swaps were paid and it was almost X3 like Wednesdays. Now a buy on Wednesday or Friday guaranteed higher prices because, in my understanding,...
A "currency swap" is not the same as the "swap" retails are charged. A "currency swap" is a contract whereby two institutions exchange currencies at given conditions. It can be used for speculation or for hedging a position on the spot market or it is done as a commercial transaction on behalf of clients. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...swaps-work.asp
Also it is sure that the rate FX players are charged are far lower than the wildly huge rates charged to retails on their leveraged accounts.
Don't know if there's any statistical significance to rate differentials and price action on Thursday or Monday.
Practitioner of the cryptic trading arts
  • #180,556
  • Sep 17, 2023 1:06pm Sep 17, 2023 1:06pm
Just a little drop and I go short.
  • #180,557
  • Sep 17, 2023 4:05pm Sep 17, 2023 4:05pm
Today all I care is a H4 candle close above 1.0680... Until that happens, bears have the upper hand... but I wait, because I believe in bulls!

Happy new trading day and week to all
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #180,558
  • Sep 17, 2023 5:10pm Sep 17, 2023 5:10pm
Good evening, hope you're great. For tomorrow, I have 1.0691 as resistance, and 1.0642 as support;
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  • #180,559
  • Sep 17, 2023 7:07pm Sep 17, 2023 7:07pm
Hope everyone has a good week. I have a long position running from Friday at 0638. My other long positions from earlier in the week got slaughtered during ECB news, (one went out at BE, but the other two got roasted). Oh well, part of the game.

I think we'll see some bullish recovery this week. We've had nine straight weeks of bearish price action, so some bullishness is long overdue. Let's see how it plays out.

Cheers!
  • #180,560
  • Sep 17, 2023 11:02pm Sep 17, 2023 11:02pm
EU is ranging between 1.0687/45 and a drop may find support at 1.0630 or 1.0610. From the other a break of 1.0687 should quickly give 1.0700. I expect the ranging conditions to continue.

Daily volatility (range) - 45 pips

15 min
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Have a great week
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
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