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EURUSD only

  • #180,241
  • Edited 3:20am Sep 10, 2023 2:52am | Edited 3:20am
Quoting Orchestra
Hello everyone, I'd love some input on this last day of trading the EUR/USD (8th September 2023). Towards the end of this trading session we had a nice move up. However, i totally missed it as we had two prior rejections at VWAP (see screenshot). When the rally went from 1.07014 to 1.07435 i totally missed it as i had a short bias because of the two prior rejections. There was a little pullback to the level of the first rejection and then boom, it took off pretty hard. My question is... how do you catch these ? I'm still learning and would love...
Hi,

You will be disappointed because the answer is more psychological than technical.

What you experienced is simply cognitive dissonance.

Its definition, so you don't have to google it:
"...a state in which there is a difference between your experiences or behavior and your beliefs about what is true"

And the answer is in your question... "...i totally missed it as i had a short bias..."

I think that your short bias comes more from the fact that we are in a higher time frame down trend and you want to take an action against it, maybe you are consciously aware of it or not but that's the dissonance that creates a conflict and prevents you to take any proper action.

The difficulty trading small time frames is that you must totally ignore what happens in the higher ones to avoid "the bias" and acknowledge quickly when there is a change in trend in "your" time frame.

On the technical side, so maybe you are not completely disappointed by my answer , after the 2 rejections, there was a close above the previous high close, that's the simplest definition of an up trend, why didn't you trade it ? Because of your bias. For you, it wasn't true.

From there, what are the options ?

1) Build a bias only on the time frame that you are trading.
Problem 1: The smaller it is, the faster you will have to change your bias
Problem 2: Good luck ignoring what happens on the next higher time frame

2) Go to a higher time frame that is aligned with what your bias is and trade accordingly.
Problem 1: You will trade less (but for more pips)
Problem 2: It will challenge your patience

My 2 cents.

If that helps you, then it helps me!
Good luck!
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #180,242
  • Sep 10, 2023 3:11am Sep 10, 2023 3:11am
To illustrate what I just said...

The 4h chart shows a down trend lasting the whole week, maybe the one on which your bias was based on.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 40 KB


The trend is quite strong so it's still difficult to find counter trends but there are some...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Your missed trade

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #180,243
  • Sep 10, 2023 9:08am Sep 10, 2023 9:08am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} Hi, You will be disappointed because the answer is more psychological than technical. What you experienced is simply cognitive dissonance. Its definition, so you don't have to google it: "...a state in which there is a difference between your experiences or behavior and your beliefs about what is true" And the answer is in your question... "...i totally missed it as i had a short bias..." I think that your short bias comes more from the fact that we are in a higher time frame down trend and you want to take an action against it, maybe you...
You couldn't have dreamed of a better response ! Thank you, very insightful !
  • #180,244
  • Sep 10, 2023 4:17pm Sep 10, 2023 4:17pm
Good evening, hope you're great. For tomorrow, I have 1.0723 as resistance, and 1.700 as support;
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  • #180,245
  • Sep 10, 2023 4:33pm Sep 10, 2023 4:33pm
Quoting Orchestra
Hello everyone, I'd love some input on this last day of trading the EUR/USD (8th September 2023). Towards the end of this trading session we had a nice move up. However, i totally missed it as we had two prior rejections at VWAP (see screenshot). When the rally went from 1.07014 to 1.07435 i totally missed it as i had a short bias because of the two prior rejections. There was a little pullback to the level of the first rejection and then boom, it took off pretty hard. My question is... how do you catch these ? I'm still learning and would love...
I understand what you mean because when I started trading i used to trade on the 1hr timeframe for over 6 months and I worked because I needed more time to analyze and I had a bias, but now I trade the 5minute and it takes more experience because my bias is constantly changing and it takes experience to to go long, then fail and inmediately go short. That takes alotta skill I wanna show u how I was long and then I went short.

And how do you catch big moved? learning supply and demand has been key because this is actually the movement of the markets and in order to be more precise you also gotta study different techniques and know when to implement them and under what conditions, because sometimes price can zoom thru an area of interest that you had and that may totally confuse you or even make you doubt your strategy but this a game of probailitities and its precisely what normal people are not accustomed to. Its just a probability and that leads to your physchological strength to deal with these circumstances.

My advice advice is only trade when market conditions feel right for you, and if you feel confused, just close your charts and come back at a later time or look at other pairs because that when we start doing stupid things.

To catch high RR is make sure you are trading with the trend, and it takes a strong psychology to hold your position because not everybody can do that. I myself only aim for 1:3 rr and Im satisfied. The more precise you wanna be the different techniques you gotta study. The question would be, Are you willing to put in the work? Are you ready to give up you alot of your time to study learn and practice?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #180,246
  • Sep 10, 2023 4:57pm Sep 10, 2023 4:57pm
I'm in a long from 1.0707. TP 1.0810.
  • #180,247
  • Sep 10, 2023 6:32pm Sep 10, 2023 6:32pm
hello friends, taking my first EURUSD 5m timeframe trade of the week, it looked very nice and because of the qualities of the fractal bar, I as able to place a really small stop which is really important to me. Let's see how it goes, this is a textbook trade for me had all my confluences. Lets see how it goes.
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  • #180,248
  • Sep 10, 2023 6:35pm Sep 10, 2023 6:35pm
I notice many folks share entries but would you be so kind to also share your chart and type in why you entered? Many styles of trading but it would be nice if the members would be so kind so enlighten us with a bit of knowledge of their strategies,
  • #180,249
  • Sep 10, 2023 7:02pm Sep 10, 2023 7:02pm
my chart for now.

i would love to see a bounce before continuing the downward movement as long as pa under 0850
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #180,250
  • Sep 10, 2023 9:50pm Sep 10, 2023 9:50pm
Testing daily r1 and weekly pivot atm which is near 0730
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #180,251
  • Edited 11:27pm Sep 10, 2023 10:54pm | Edited 11:27pm
Eurusd opened with a gap up after the open but it soon may close it but it will chop around until a real break happens later in the week.

Daily volatility (range) - 47 pips

15 min
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Have a great week
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #180,252
  • Edited 11:53pm Sep 10, 2023 11:42pm | Edited 11:53pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Eurusd opened with a gap up after the open but it soon may close it but it will chop around until a real break happens later in the week. Daily volatility (range) - 47 pips 15 min {image} Have a great week
i hope it go up first before coming back down but there are so many barriers ahead

update: so 0730 didn’t cause much issue for the bull but i have resistance 0740 and 61 next
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #180,253
  • Sep 10, 2023 11:46pm Sep 10, 2023 11:46pm
yup me too waiting for it to go up so that i can short. entered a few along the way already though now in small red
  • #180,254
  • Sep 11, 2023 12:01am Sep 11, 2023 12:01am
Long already

Ready to Short for hedge and tight SL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #180,255
  • Sep 11, 2023 12:06am Sep 11, 2023 12:06am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i hope it go up first before coming back down but there are so many barriers ahead update: so 0730 didn’t cause much issue for the bull but i have resistance 0740 and 61 next
Yes, it's depressed, Friday tells the story
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #180,256
  • Sep 11, 2023 12:09am Sep 11, 2023 12:09am
Trading plan.
Sell rallies, starting with this one and aim at 1.06. This is good target and a potential bounce from there is likely.
Good luck.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #180,257
  • Sep 11, 2023 12:48am Sep 11, 2023 12:48am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i hope it go up first before coming back down but there are so many barriers ahead update: so 0730 didn’t cause much issue for the bull but i have resistance 0740 and 61 next
Today will most likely be a one-way traffic to the top. I would advise against selling. Price stormed up without closing the opening gap. That's a clue. Second clue is that if Asia buys/sells on a Monday or Friday, London and NY usually follow suit. There are exceptions with their own set of rules. Thirdly, the US Cpi forecasts seem to be too high, which tells me it might come in red. And if the ECB raises rates only God knows how high this might shoot up, as it could aim for monthly pivot again which sits at 1.0892.

Now, this DOES NOT change the monthly sell/red narrative until we get a daily, or better still, weekly close above the monthly pivot at 1.0892. I made the following post on Thursday or so and it's playing out.
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  • #180,258
  • Sep 11, 2023 12:52am Sep 11, 2023 12:52am
Quoting Niily
{quote} 1,074 held resistance as expected. Perhaps next week will be the price that determines the trend for the whole week. The actions are more and more like what I mean by slowing down the bear and attracting the bulls. Final.....
Price is still testing the key 1.074 area.
My axis today: above 1.07250 bulls prevail, below 1.07200 bears prevail.

Close new scalp long on Monday
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Keep the faith and keep going
  • #180,259
  • Sep 11, 2023 1:03am Sep 11, 2023 1:03am
Quoting fxcontest
Long already Ready to Short for hedge and tight SL {image}
TP all Long

Starting Short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #180,260
  • Sep 11, 2023 1:09am Sep 11, 2023 1:09am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Today will most likely be a one-way traffic to the top. I would advise against selling. Price stormed up without closing the opening gap. That's a clue. Second clue is that if Asia buys/sells on a Monday or Friday, London and NY usually follow suit. There are exceptions with their own set of rules. Thirdly, the US Cpi forecasts seem to be too high, which tells me it might come in red. And if the ECB raises rates only God knows how high this might shoot up, as it could aim for monthly pivot again which sits at 1.0892. Now, this DOES NOT change...
bull needa to take down 0740 first. I am hoping some bull move in the first half of the week ideally 08xx to load shorts, let see!

first attempt failed as expected, let see what happened when we re-attempt. Otherwise we likely to continue within the range(which may turn to bearish)
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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