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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #4,861
  • Jun 1, 2007 4:52pm Jun 1, 2007 4:52pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
You can use the 1H on other signals. When you get familiar with the rhythm of a certain pair you will recognize that a very high probability setup is occuring even before the 4H MACD gives the signal and the 1H will confirm it. But use this option only if you are sure you know the market motion. The advantage is that your stoploss gets smaller as you enter earlier.

This week was difficult. I got 52 pips on Tuesday and 30 pips today on EurUsd after NFP.
I always stay away of NFP, but just for ease my curiosity Phillip did you trade after NFP using your 5min intraday system or 4MACD one?
Thanks for your answer.
  • #4,862
  • Jun 1, 2007 5:12pm Jun 1, 2007 5:12pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
This week was difficult. I got 52 pips on Tuesday and 30 pips today on EurUsd after NFP.
You Rock!!!!

+82 pips is excellent!!! I love positive pips ....especially during difficult weeks like this past one. Your system sure does help us out by giving us the tools to see the difficult market conditions, and allowing us the capacity to plan our trades accordingly (which means, at times, no trading at all).

Hope you have a great weekend! And, as always, Thank you soooooooo much for all you do and have done!
  • #4,863
  • Jun 2, 2007 6:30am Jun 2, 2007 6:30am
Quoting mkain
I always stay away of NFP, but just for ease my curiosity Phillip did you trade after NFP using your 5min intraday system or 4MACD one?
Thanks for your answer.
I could not watch the NFP live. I went short at the close of the 16:00 candle. Price tested top Resistance 3rd time and MACD gave short signal below zero and NFP was as expected so no fireworks was on so I went in the direction of the 12:00-16:00 candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 Hour Strategy.jpg Size: 55 KB
  • #4,864
  • Jun 2, 2007 1:41pm Jun 2, 2007 1:41pm
Hello Philip (or other experienced traders on this system),

Please have patience to go through this all, and answer/help if you can.

My point/question/doubt is that following your (excellent) visualization of the market rhythm, I’m being kept out of the market, and missing the major moves. Before I was jumping the gun too quickly, and often entering losing trades, now I’m out…

This week there were big moves both on the Eur and Gbp, and I missed both because of my reading of the market, guided by your market rhythm analysis.

Note: I believe the time reference is the same as yours, since this is from a swiss broker as well.

On Eur:
29th of May:
- I have marked with a vertical line the beginning of the day.
- The 1st candle after that line (04h to08h) is a bullish one (pair is again finding support below), but MACD did not turn up – in fact it gave a more negative reading.
- Also the 8 and 21 EMA’s were very close so, even if MACD had turned upwards, as this would be a countertrend trade (89 is above so “mood” is bearish), the target would be the 21 which would not give a interesting trade, and with a bad R:R (around 8 pip from the close to the 21 and a SL of 16 to the 365 at least, more if the support below was used).
- One the 2nd candle after the vertical line (08h to 12h), price shoots up, through the 8 and 21 and it reaches the 89 area (“magic” like someone mentioned here).
- Here we (or at least I) have another problem…the 89 is close (about 12 pips away) and the SL would be huge (34 to the 21ema, or for a better SL 49 to the low of the candle). Unless we bet price is going to reach the 200…but 89 is a probable place to have resistance, since we are in bearish mode (the trendline there was drawn afterwards).
- We also have to consider price has gone up quite a bit already…so less probability to have strength to reach the 200. So I’m out again.
- But the price goes up another 40 pips…

Then it had a huge bear candle with an aggressive turnaround on the MACD…I would have entered on the 3rd candle after that, when the candles confirmed the down move, but I was sleeping then…just my luck…move on…

31st of May:
- The 2nd vertical line marks the beginning of the day.
- The 1st candle after that is a small bullish one, with a small tail above, which starts to indicate selling pressure. MACD gave a bullish signal, but price is too close to the 21…so wait for better times (I was sleeping then anyway).
- The 2nd candle after the vertical line, is also bullish but with a bigger uptail, signalling more selling pressure, and price was in the same situation – too close to the 21 for a worth countertrend, even with MACD signalling up (making a sort of a RB).
- Then price shoots up to the 89 area again …I’m getting frustrated here… Ends with a big tail on the up side…so when it closes, even with another MACD bull signal, I’m not keen on entering…
- But it still gave another try up…

Hell…I’m starting to think that maybe I should enter on every MACD signal.

On Gbp:
I’ll just bother you about one trade.
On the 31st of May (1st vertical line marked on the chart):
- The 3rd candle after the vertical line (12h to 16h) end with a huge up tail, signalling selling pressure, and close below the 365. Also several previous candles have up tails, and all closed below the 365. Sure looks like resistance here.
- So even with MACD round bottomish…I stayed out.
- Then…up we go…and a miss I get…
- There is also a 2nd vertical line there, with a similar situation, but just below the 89, and MACD also signalling up…but it was NFP day, so I was very much inclined to stay out.

So you see, I think I went by the rules…and was kept out. Now I believe Phillip and/or others took part of these moves…based on what? The H1?

Basicly I ask:
- Is my analysis wrong in anyway?
- Do you have any recommendation for me about cases like this?
- How is the H1 analysis? Phillip mentioned on the 5M thread that it uses 55SMA (instead of the 89?), does it use 21EMA and 8 EMA as well? And uses MACD the same way?

I think I will not post so much text in the future...don't want to bother with so many things...but I still have questions.

Thanks.

MD
Attached Images
  • #4,865
  • Jun 2, 2007 1:52pm Jun 2, 2007 1:52pm
Hi again,

How do we put images in the post, in a way that people can immediatly see them, and don't have to download them to the PC?


http://www.forexfactory.com/C:\Nereu...usd_29thmay_v2
  • #4,866
  • Jun 2, 2007 2:17pm Jun 2, 2007 2:17pm
Quoting MD27
Hi again,

How do we put images in the post, in a way that people can immediatly see them, and don't have to download them to the PC?


http://www.forexfactory.com/C:%5CNer...usd_29thmay_v2
If you post an image a post you will be able to see it inline.
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #4,867
  • Jun 2, 2007 2:47pm Jun 2, 2007 2:47pm
Quoting MD27
Hello Philip (or other experienced traders on this system),

Please have patience to go through this all, and answer/help if you can.

My point/question/doubt is that following your (excellent) visualization of the market rhythm, I’m being kept out of the market, and missing the major moves. Before I was jumping the gun too quickly, and often entering losing trades, now I’m out…

This week there were big moves both on the Eur and Gbp, and I missed both because of my reading of the market, guided by your market rhythm analysis.

Note: I believe the time reference is the same as yours, since this is from a swiss broker as well.

On Eur:
29th of May:
- I have marked with a vertical line the beginning of the day.
- The 1st candle after that line (04h to08h) is a bullish one (pair is again finding support below), but MACD did not turn up – in fact it gave a more negative reading.
- Also the 8 and 21 EMA’s were very close so, even if MACD had turned upwards, as this would be a countertrend trade (89 is above so “mood” is bearish), the target would be the 21 which would not give a interesting trade, and with a bad R:R (around 8 pip from the close to the 21 and a SL of 16 to the 365 at least, more if the support below was used).
- One the 2nd candle after the vertical line (08h to 12h), price shoots up, through the 8 and 21 and it reaches the 89 area (“magic” like someone mentioned here).
- Here we (or at least I) have another problem…the 89 is close (about 12 pips away) and the SL would be huge (34 to the 21ema, or for a better SL 49 to the low of the candle). Unless we bet price is going to reach the 200…but 89 is a probable place to have resistance, since we are in bearish mode (the trendline there was drawn afterwards).
- We also have to consider price has gone up quite a bit already…so less probability to have strength to reach the 200. So I’m out again.
- But the price goes up another 40 pips…

Then it had a huge bear candle with an aggressive turnaround on the MACD…I would have entered on the 3rd candle after that, when the candles confirmed the down move, but I was sleeping then…just my luck…move on…

31st of May:
- The 2nd vertical line marks the beginning of the day.
- The 1st candle after that is a small bullish one, with a small tail above, which starts to indicate selling pressure. MACD gave a bullish signal, but price is too close to the 21…so wait for better times (I was sleeping then anyway).
- The 2nd candle after the vertical line, is also bullish but with a bigger uptail, signalling more selling pressure, and price was in the same situation – too close to the 21 for a worth countertrend, even with MACD signalling up (making a sort of a RB).
- Then price shoots up to the 89 area again …I’m getting frustrated here… Ends with a big tail on the up side…so when it closes, even with another MACD bull signal, I’m not keen on entering…
- But it still gave another try up…

Hell…I’m starting to think that maybe I should enter on every MACD signal.

On Gbp:
I’ll just bother you about one trade.
On the 31st of May (1st vertical line marked on the chart):
- The 3rd candle after the vertical line (12h to 16h) end with a huge up tail, signalling selling pressure, and close below the 365. Also several previous candles have up tails, and all closed below the 365. Sure looks like resistance here.
- So even with MACD round bottomish…I stayed out.
- Then…up we go…and a miss I get…
- There is also a 2nd vertical line there, with a similar situation, but just below the 89, and MACD also signalling up…but it was NFP day, so I was very much inclined to stay out.

So you see, I think I went by the rules…and was kept out. Now I believe Phillip and/or others took part of these moves…based on what? The H1?

Basicly I ask:
- Is my analysis wrong in anyway?
- Do you have any recommendation for me about cases like this?
- How is the H1 analysis? Phillip mentioned on the 5M thread that it uses 55SMA (instead of the 89?), does it use 21EMA and 8 EMA as well? And uses MACD the same way?

I think I will not post so much text in the future...don't want to bother with so many things...but I still have questions.

Thanks.

MD
Hi MD27,

I do not trade the EU so I will not comment. As with regards to the GU, I use the MACD in conjunction with trendlines and the MAs. For me the trendlines and MACD are good enough with the ocassional evedient candle stick.

In the case above MACD has confirmed the signal with my daily trendlines.
Attached Image
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #4,868
  • Jun 2, 2007 2:57pm Jun 2, 2007 2:57pm
Just a closer look.

MD27, I had a similar problem with drawing my trendlines till pips showed me how to draw them. How I work it, when MACD gives a signal, I look for confirmation from the trendlines. Although, Phillip might not agree with this, but his MACD is better than him even during news time .

Once you get to draw your trendlines you will catch these moves or at least part of the moves.

See how the trendline is slopping down - price is closing down (playing games with your mind - MACD does not play games) - you can see how none of the candles have closed below the trendline.
Attached Image
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #4,869
  • Jun 3, 2007 4:23am Jun 3, 2007 4:23am
Hi,

Thanks aftab.

I was looking at that upper area as being more of a resistance area, because the "outer" channel TL is close by, and there was also an "inner" TL (that I have on my chart as you do) and that was acting as resistance.

What I see is that you have another "inner" TL (drawn from a previous peak I believe) that was acting as a support making a narrow channel on the upper part of the larger channel.

With that I see that if we believe in that support, than that MACD signal would be a good one.

So I guess I have to look even more to the TL drawing you guys do here (and possibly discuss wth some of you).

BUT!
I believe your post only addresses the GBP and on the situation afer second vertical line in my chart.

What about the first situation/ vertical line?
That 3rd candle after this TL (with long up tail), with 365 having offered resistance on the previous candles...made me stay out (even with MACD making a RB)...and miss the move.

Let's try that one image per post (thanks again aftab), with a new version of the chart with a couple TL more...

MD
Attached Image
  • #4,870
  • Jun 3, 2007 4:36am Jun 3, 2007 4:36am
Hi again...

One image per post...it worked aftab, thanks

As I am at it, I'll re-post the Eur questions but with the image showing (more user-friendly to visualize and answer).

My point/question/doubt is that following your (excellent) visualization of the market rhythm, I’m being kept out of the market, and missing the major moves.

On Eur:
29th of May:
- I have marked with a vertical line the beginning of the day.
- The 1st candle after that line (04h to08h) is a bullish one (pair is again finding support below), but MACD did not turn up – in fact it gave a more negative reading.
- Also the 8 and 21 EMA’s were very close so, even if MACD had turned upwards, as this would be a countertrend trade (89 is above so “mood” is bearish), the target would be the 21 which would not give a interesting trade, and with a bad R:R (around 8 pip from the close to the 21 and a SL of 16 to the 365 at least, more if the support below was used).
- One the 2nd candle after the vertical line (08h to 12h), price shoots up, through the 8 and 21 and it reaches the 89 area (“magic” like someone mentioned here).
- Here we (or at least I) have another problem…the 89 is close (about 12 pips away) and the SL would be huge (34 to the 21ema, or for a better SL 49 to the low of the candle). Unless we bet price is going to reach the 200…but 89 is a probable place to have resistance, since we are in bearish mode (the trendline there was drawn afterwards).
- We also have to consider price has gone up quite a bit already…so less probability to have strength to reach the 200. So I’m out again.
- But the price goes up another 40 pips…

Then it had a huge bear candle with an aggressive turnaround on the MACD…I would have entered on the 3rd candle after that, when the candles confirmed the down move, but I was sleeping then…just my luck…move on…

31st of May:
- The 2nd vertical line marks the beginning of the day.
- The 1st candle after that is a small bullish one, with a small tail above, which starts to indicate selling pressure. MACD gave a bullish signal, but price is too close to the 21…so wait for better times (I was sleeping then anyway).
- The 2nd candle after the vertical line, is also bullish but with a bigger uptail, signalling more selling pressure, and price was in the same situation – too close to the 21 for a worth countertrend, even with MACD signalling up (making a sort of a RB).
- Then price shoots up to the 89 area again …I’m getting frustrated here… Ends with a big tail on the up side…so when it closes, even with another MACD bull signal, I’m not keen on entering…
- But it still gave another try up…
Attached Image
  • #4,871
  • Jun 3, 2007 10:58am Jun 3, 2007 10:58am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I could not watch the NFP live. I went short at the close of the 16:00 candle. Price tested top Resistance 3rd time and MACD gave short signal below zero and NFP was as expected so no fireworks was on so I went in the direction of the 12:00-16:00 candle.
Hi, Phillp! I'm new to this forum and this thread and I like your 4H and 5m systems trying them for a few weeks and they work. I trade for a few years and lost two live accounts and going to open a third one. I hope with your systems I'm going to on the market.
My question is, you say that price the is probably going down, but it has a strong support at 365EMA and it tried it 3 times already. Did it prove that the support is too strong to be broken?
The 89 SMA is close too, so the price is between them and it should break one of them, why you decided that 89 has stronger resistance than 365?
What pattern showing short signal, is is a lower high?
  • #4,872
  • Jun 3, 2007 11:26am Jun 3, 2007 11:26am
Quoting MD27
Hello Philip (or other experienced traders on this system),

Please have patience to go through this all, and answer/help if you can.

My point/question/doubt is that following your (excellent) visualization of the market rhythm, I’m being kept out of the market, and missing the major moves. Before I was jumping the gun too quickly, and often entering losing trades, now I’m out…

This week there were big moves both on the Eur and Gbp, and I missed both because of my reading of the market, guided by your market rhythm analysis.

Note: I believe the time reference is the same as yours, since this is from a swiss broker as well.

On Eur:
29th of May:
- I have marked with a vertical line the beginning of the day.
- The 1st candle after that line (04h to08h) is a bullish one (pair is again finding support below), but MACD did not turn up – in fact it gave a more negative reading.
- Also the 8 and 21 EMA’s were very close so, even if MACD had turned upwards, as this would be a countertrend trade (89 is above so “mood” is bearish), the target would be the 21 which would not give a interesting trade, and with a bad R:R (around 8 pip from the close to the 21 and a SL of 16 to the 365 at least, more if the support below was used).
- One the 2nd candle after the vertical line (08h to 12h), price shoots up, through the 8 and 21 and it reaches the 89 area (“magic” like someone mentioned here).
- Here we (or at least I) have another problem…the 89 is close (about 12 pips away) and the SL would be huge (34 to the 21ema, or for a better SL 49 to the low of the candle). Unless we bet price is going to reach the 200…but 89 is a probable place to have resistance, since we are in bearish mode (the trendline there was drawn afterwards).
- We also have to consider price has gone up quite a bit already…so less probability to have strength to reach the 200. So I’m out again.
- But the price goes up another 40 pips…

Then it had a huge bear candle with an aggressive turnaround on the MACD…I would have entered on the 3rd candle after that, when the candles confirmed the down move, but I was sleeping then…just my luck…move on…

31st of May:
- The 2nd vertical line marks the beginning of the day.
- The 1st candle after that is a small bullish one, with a small tail above, which starts to indicate selling pressure. MACD gave a bullish signal, but price is too close to the 21…so wait for better times (I was sleeping then anyway).
- The 2nd candle after the vertical line, is also bullish but with a bigger uptail, signalling more selling pressure, and price was in the same situation – too close to the 21 for a worth countertrend, even with MACD signalling up (making a sort of a RB).
- Then price shoots up to the 89 area again …I’m getting frustrated here… Ends with a big tail on the up side…so when it closes, even with another MACD bull signal, I’m not keen on entering…
- But it still gave another try up…

Hell…I’m starting to think that maybe I should enter on every MACD signal.

On Gbp:
I’ll just bother you about one trade.
On the 31st of May (1st vertical line marked on the chart):
- The 3rd candle after the vertical line (12h to 16h) end with a huge up tail, signalling selling pressure, and close below the 365. Also several previous candles have up tails, and all closed below the 365. Sure looks like resistance here.
- So even with MACD round bottomish…I stayed out.
- Then…up we go…and a miss I get…
- There is also a 2nd vertical line there, with a similar situation, but just below the 89, and MACD also signalling up…but it was NFP day, so I was very much inclined to stay out.

So you see, I think I went by the rules…and was kept out. Now I believe Phillip and/or others took part of these moves…based on what? The H1?

Basicly I ask:
- Is my analysis wrong in anyway?
- Do you have any recommendation for me about cases like this?
- How is the H1 analysis? Phillip mentioned on the 5M thread that it uses 55SMA (instead of the 89?), does it use 21EMA and 8 EMA as well? And uses MACD the same way?

I think I will not post so much text in the future...don't want to bother with so many things...but I still have questions.

Thanks.

MD
Go to Page 289 Post 4335 and on for a summary of the 4 Hour MACD
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Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Eur Usd.zip   799 KB | 1,470 downloads
  • #4,873
  • Edited 11:47am Jun 3, 2007 11:33am | Edited 11:47am
Quoting alexfot
Hi, Phillp! I'm new to this forum and this thread and I like your 4H and 5m systems trying them for a few weeks and they work. I trade for a few years and lost two live accounts and going to open a third one. I hope with your systems I'm going to on the market.
My question is, you say that price the is probably going down, but it has a strong support at 365EMA and it tried it 3 times already. Did it prove that the support is too strong to be broken?
The 89 SMA is close too, so the price is between them and it should break one of them, why you decided that 89 has stronger resistance than 365?
What pattern showing short signal, is is a lower high?

It has been proven in the past that the MACD support the news most of the time. The Manufactoring Index was better than expected and with the NFP better(not much) than expected I felt that the short term move will favour the news and the MACD gave short signal so I took it on.
MACD move through zero and turn around through zero again was the signal. The MACD gave signal that included the NFP news. If the news was not out when the signal was given I would have stayed on the sideline.
Phillip
  • #4,874
  • Jun 3, 2007 1:21pm Jun 3, 2007 1:21pm
Can anyone say is there a head and sholders formation on the E/U 4H?
  • #4,875
  • Jun 3, 2007 1:43pm Jun 3, 2007 1:43pm
It looks like H&S on the price not on MACD.
  • #4,876
  • Jun 3, 2007 2:27pm Jun 3, 2007 2:27pm
Quoting alexfot
It looks like H&S on the price not on MACD.
I think if the price closes below 365MA we can expect a nice move down.
  • #4,877
  • Jun 3, 2007 2:40pm Jun 3, 2007 2:40pm
Like Phil said it would down to 1.3325.
  • #4,878
  • Jun 3, 2007 5:27pm Jun 3, 2007 5:27pm
Hi Phil,

Thanks a lot for answering.

I did hear your other recordings about the trades this week on eur and gbp (I've been follwoing this thread since mid May, and I'm reading it all the way through).

Also, as you may have noticed on my first post here, I did go to page 289, and read all the docs and listened to all the files that are in those lessons - all very good.

Even so, I think it's natural that somes questions come up to a new user of this system.

But we can only thank you for all the work you did and shared with us, and for all the excellent material you deliver and continuous support of the users of the system.

"When the playing field is between two major MA's, price may ignore the smaller MA's" - That, for me, was the key in your answer. I can't tell if this was referred on those lessons after page289 - if it is, I missed it.

So I thank you again for making this even more clear and logic.

In the coming weeks I will follow the market with your system in my eyes and mind. Let's see what happens.

Like many others here, I'll share my thoughts and questions, and probably get back to you with this H4/H1 interaction under your system rules.

Again, thank you very much.

"The guy on the thread "
MD
  • #4,879
  • Edited 4:44am Jun 4, 2007 12:55am | Edited 4:44am
Dear friends, I have made a document on the Phillip teaching of the market rhythm, which I find to be very useful. Maybe it will help someone else.
Of course any comments and corrections are WELCOME!
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1180936079
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc T.doc   27 KB | 2,134 downloads
  • #4,880
  • Jun 4, 2007 2:37am Jun 4, 2007 2:37am
Quoting ira
Dear friends, I have made a document on the market rhythm, which I find to be very useful. Maybe it will help someone else.
Of course any comments and corrections are WELCOME!
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1180936079
great ira,

your document certainly is helpful, multiple MA is one way to go, any advice we should take, about pullback, bounce back, go back, go through, continue etc ?
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