Fundamental Trading Journal

Right - I am going to start this again.
Will try to keep on track - everything will start from a macro perspective
No macro = no trade.

Still in this one?

I got out of it. Nice structure though.
Need to review all this again- have had other things on my plate.

So fundamentally - where are we at.
This game is always about confluence of levels

UK:

Employment - getting worse
Inflation -6.8- still too high
Inflation seems sticky
PMIs -getting really bad
No geopolitical news
10 year spreads - bid on the hourly.
Talk of halving inflation by the Chancellor- yet oil destined to hit $100++ a barrel
Risk reversals - look pretty bad against Cable in the months ahead.
BoE governor Bailey talking about inflation falling - and that the BOE are approaching the terminal rate.

The UK needs growth - where is it.
But we are at a key level at atm- plus we had high volume - iro the CAD cash rate meeting.
Reading through their statement - made pretty depressing reading.
They did give the US the thumbs up.

Also some of the emerging market - seem to be under stress.
Damocles: Our Early Warning Indicator of EM Exchange Rate Crises | Nomura Connects
All in all not good

However, traders - trade off levels. And we are aa key level.
Annual VWAP, the POC and the 50 pull-back- all 3 are lined up
Also the 10 year spread on the hourly seemed to get a bid- although they turned south today on the 3m
Price also stopped at 1.2500 a clear round number
Looking at the pound - its sell off appears over-exaggerated

US

Inflation - sticky at 3%
Fed- neutral (ish)
Employment - improved slightly
Business surveys - dropping
CPI data next week- lets see what these estimates are.
ISM services - highest increase in 6 months - odd that this makes the headlines in Trading Economics - but you can't even see it on the FF calendar
In addition - US money supply is shrinking
Why the US money supply is shrinking for the first time in 74 years (goldmansachs.com)

Below are some key levels of interest.

In trading should just monitoring the state of each economy- and where it sits in the current cycle, and then notice when it changes
Only then should we be looking at the structure on a chart.
Soley relying on a chart patterns - is what retail traders do - and 95% of them lose.
For instance - I know that the Aus and NZ ones are doing well. I could see that China are trying to address the issues they have.
Does a chart tell me what the GDP is of the UK or the PMI
A chart can tell you if there has been a lot of buying or selling.
People put levels on charts - but time is just as important - the sell off on Gold - only came from the FOMC meeting
Value is often wrong- and can just be viewed through the same lens as structure.
Once price has sold off - it is critical to keep a close eye on the news and structure- as everyone is short.

Here is an example - triple top, value is off on the NZDUSD. Yet we have strong Kiwi data - and a miss yesterday on US GDP and US home sales.
Also there is a cash rate meeting by the RBNZ next week - and in the last meeting they seemed pretty hawkish to me. Since then we have seen some strong data come through.