Thanksgiving phenomenon or not ? | Forex Factory

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Thanksgiving phenomenon or not ?

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 24, 2006 1:18am Nov 24, 2006 1:18am
From Reuters...

Quote
"The data is coming out stronger in the euro zone," said
Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, currency strategist at UBS. "The U.S. data
is on the weak side and if it cracks the Fed might need to cut
interest rates."
Ian Gunner, head of foreign exchange research at Mellon
Bank, said: "For the time being the news flow is favouring the
euro, if we close above $1.30 today the key will be if we reject
all of this as a Thanksgiving phenomenon or not."

Your opinions ?
  • #2
  • Nov 24, 2006 1:42am Nov 24, 2006 1:42am
USD is THANKING GBP, EUR and JPY by GIVING a lot of pips away!

Did you know that 80% of EURUSD positions are "short"?
According to contrarian statistics; the more short positions there are, long will dominate the move! No more short money is coming in as they are already there. So we saw the recent up move.
  • #3
  • Nov 24, 2006 2:07am Nov 24, 2006 2:07am
Quoting BurgerKing
USD is THANKING GBP, EUR and JPY by GIVING a lot of pips away!

Did you know that 80% of EURUSD positions are "short"?
According to contrarian statistics; the more short positions there are, long will dominate the move! No more short money is coming in as they are already there. So we saw the recent up move.






The Dollar came under preassure while Americans have been busy eating turkeys.


I look for opportunities to re-enter euro long positions in the event the EURUSD goes back to 1.28 or breaks above 1.30. This is in line with a forecast of a rise to 1.34 in the next 2 or 3 months.
  • #4
  • Nov 24, 2006 2:58am Nov 24, 2006 2:58am
Trader Psychology teaches me to be humble and accept losses. So I closed my GBPUSD shorts and USDJPY Longs for some losses - DARN! the recent 170 upmove was painful!

I have learned also from my first trading months NOT to trade against my loosing positions. At those instances, a looser is definitely pissed and will make bad judgements one after another. So I am stepping aside.

However, I am still huge in profit for this month.
  • #5
  • Nov 24, 2006 3:14am Nov 24, 2006 3:14am
Quoting BurgerKing
Trader Psychology teaches me to be humble and accept losses. So I closed my GBPUSD shorts and USDJPY Longs for some losses - DARN! the recent 170 upmove was painful!

I have learned also from my first trading months NOT to trade against my loosing positions. At those instances, a looser is definitely pissed and will make bad judgements one after another. So I am stepping aside.

However, I am still huge in profit for this month.
Take a bear, chill out
  • #6
  • Nov 24, 2006 3:15am Nov 24, 2006 3:15am
Quoting BurgerKing
Trader Psychology teaches me to be humble and accept losses. So I closed my GBPUSD shorts and USDJPY Longs for some losses - DARN! the recent 170 upmove was painful!

I have learned also from my first trading months NOT to trade against my loosing positions. At those instances, a looser is definitely pissed and will make bad judgements one after another. So I am stepping aside.

However, I am still huge in profit for this month.
I agree with your Trading Psy... But for sure a movement like that should have a retracement.... 1.30/1.29/1.28 perhaps before the last big bang of this year... The holiday return for US people should have an impact on monday...
  • #7
  • Nov 24, 2006 3:51am Nov 24, 2006 3:51am
Quoting BurgerKing
USD is THANKING GBP, EUR and JPY by GIVING a lot of pips away!

Did you know that 80% of EURUSD positions are "short"?
According to contrarian statistics; the more short positions there are, long will dominate the move! No more short money is coming in as they are already there. So we saw the recent up move.
Yes, I agree.
If 80% position were short then a little bull news can move price to north quickly. Why? according to my opinion, there are a huge panic traders closed their position which added power for price going up.

This is the art of trading!
  • #8
  • Nov 24, 2006 4:18am Nov 24, 2006 4:18am
Quoting BurgerKing
Trader Psychology teaches me to be humble and accept losses. So I closed my GBPUSD shorts and USDJPY Longs for some losses - DARN! the recent 170 upmove was painful!

I have learned also from my first trading months NOT to trade against my loosing positions. At those instances, a looser is definitely pissed and will make bad judgements one after another. So I am stepping aside.

However, I am still huge in profit for this month.

I was not in a trade when the move happened.
But you can be sure you were not the only one to take a loss; if 80 per cent of traders were short gbp and euro, they could not have sustained that 300 pip move in gbp alone in last couple of days. So there could be massive losses around.
  • #9
  • Nov 24, 2006 4:20am Nov 24, 2006 4:20am
Quoting BurgerKing
Trader Psychology teaches me to be humble and accept losses. So I closed my GBPUSD shorts and USDJPY Longs for some losses - DARN! the recent 170 upmove was painful!

I have learned also from my first trading months NOT to trade against my loosing positions. At those instances, a looser is definitely pissed and will make bad judgements one after another. So I am stepping aside.

However, I am still huge in profit for this month.
god..i wish i had learned to do that sooner!
  • #10
  • Nov 24, 2006 5:06am Nov 24, 2006 5:06am
welcome to the world of forex! Don't blink you might miss something.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #11
  • Nov 24, 2006 5:25am Nov 24, 2006 5:25am
Quoting Moe
welcome to the world of forex! Don't blink you might miss something.
During london morning sessions, I am away fetching my daughter from school nowadays. So I always miss such nice moves.

This is why NEWS TRADING is the 95% profit maker for me.
  • #12
  • Nov 24, 2006 5:43am Nov 24, 2006 5:43am
i think it will stay that range or above till end of the yr? possible?
  • #13
  • Nov 24, 2006 5:51am Nov 24, 2006 5:51am
Quoting BurgerKing
During london morning sessions, I am away fetching my daughter from school nowadays. So I always miss such nice moves.

This is why NEWS TRADING is the 95% profit maker for me.
this is where i make all of my money. lets see what next week bring.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #14
  • Nov 24, 2006 6:04am Nov 24, 2006 6:04am
I had a limit order for north or nov. 23 high but I only took out 10 pips from this move ... didn't think something like this can happen over night....
  • #15
  • Nov 24, 2006 6:10am Nov 24, 2006 6:10am
bah it didnt go beyond highs/lows maybe in half hour or so.... what do u guys think, i think we have some steam left
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #16
  • Nov 24, 2006 6:14am Nov 24, 2006 6:14am
Quoting Ghostpipper
bah it didnt go beyond highs/lows maybe in half hour or so.... what do u guys think, i think we have some steam left
Yes... some rest of turkeys steam...
  • #17
  • Nov 24, 2006 6:20am Nov 24, 2006 6:20am
haha
  • #18
  • Nov 24, 2006 6:42am Nov 24, 2006 6:42am
Quoting Ghostpipper
bah it didnt go beyond highs/lows maybe in half hour or so.... what do u guys think, i think we have some steam left
here comes da steam Toot Tooooooooooot !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! watch out $ shorts !!!!!
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #19
  • Nov 24, 2006 7:33am Nov 24, 2006 7:33am
Guys, not to toot my own horn or anything but check out my thread...let me know what you think.
  • #20
  • Last Post: Nov 24, 2006 10:13am Nov 24, 2006 10:13am
Hey moe...which sources do you rely on for news and what is your strategy for trading the news? Do you use a straddle?

thanks.
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