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Forex Gang Trade

  • #41
  • May 31, 2007 12:55pm May 31, 2007 12:55pm
The market is self correcting. Any advantage a group would have (in this case a group of small traders = minimal) the market would adapt to.

So unless you are talking about scalping, which is a losers game unless you are real good at it, any other trading strategy would be discovered by others who would then trade against the group.

Not to mention how would have everyone trade as one group. It sure seems like the majority (I would guess at least 60-65%) of posters on Forex Factory are either newbies paper trading or using micro accounts. Thats doesn't add up to a whole lot of firepower to move a market even in the deadest hours of the trading day. Maybe once in a blue moon but is that enough to get crazy over?

Sorry but it is pure fantasy. Better to try your luck at the lottery.
  • #42
  • May 31, 2007 1:12pm May 31, 2007 1:12pm
The only comment I would like to make, having worked in the City of London is that I was there when George Soros broke the GBP out of the stand it was maintaining re the european currencies. There wasn't a thing the Central Banks could do about it. The power of his hedge fund was greater than that of the Central Banks.

If One hedge fund can do that what chance do we have operating s a gang trade?
  • #43
  • May 31, 2007 1:29pm May 31, 2007 1:29pm
Quoting megamo
Yes, but its important to look at the reasoning behind that as well.. If a company calls the bank and says that I'd like to buy 1 billion euro's for a merger and acquisition (which is happening a lot lately and will happen a lot more later), the bank has to do nothing but buy a billion euros, its a transaction that has to happen regardless of technicals and i think in the overall market that may cause some moves, but not a move to change the direction of the currency..
I guess you don't see the 10 to 20 pip drops out of nowhere during off hours of the day...thats the banks or other large investors dropping a "Yard" at a time they think is best to take profit.

September of 1992, he risked $10 billion on a single currecy speculation when he shorted the British pound. He turned out to be right, and in a single day the trade generated a profit of $1 billion – ultimately, it was reported that his profit on the transaction almost reached $2 billion. As a result, he is famously known as the "the man who broke the Bank of England."
By leveraging the value of his fund, Soros was able to take a $10 billion short position on the pound which made him US$1 billion. This trade is considered one of the greatest trades of all time.
“Past performance is not indicative of future results”
  • #44
  • May 31, 2007 1:35pm May 31, 2007 1:35pm
It's so easy to make money in these markets by simply going with the flow--that is, following an existing trend. Why even bother trying to influence the market?

It seems to me this is exactly the mindset Mark Douglas cautions against in "Trading in the Zone." Forget about trying to make the market do what you want it to do. Instead, conform your trading to what the market is already doing.
  • #45
  • May 31, 2007 2:03pm May 31, 2007 2:03pm
You guys have shared many interesting views. None of which are stupid. I'm glad i opened this thread!

now, as george soros was mentioned above,


He (and some other large traders) realized that the GBP was quite overpriced.

he shorted it and some others follow (if they didn't follow then the BoE would stop the movement)

the herding effect took place and everyone, banks, small speculators, hedg funds started selling or liquidating their long positions..

the result, george soros rich as ever, bank of england broke.

that happened because of only $10Billion (leveraged)...that is the same as 10,000 forex traders trading 10 lots each...and that fall in the GBP was an extreme case.

now imagine 10,000 players armed to the teeth with ten lots each.

lol, i know i'm dreaming but imagine a cartel of forex traders.....Hedge funds have something like that (believe me, they do)
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #46
  • May 31, 2007 2:16pm May 31, 2007 2:16pm
Quoting gobigo12
I guess you don't see the 10 to 20 pip drops out of nowhere during off hours of the day...thats the banks or other large investors dropping a "Yard" at a time they think is best to take profit.

September of 1992, he risked $10 billion on a single currecy speculation when he shorted the British pound. He turned out to be right, and in a single day the trade generated a profit of $1 billion – ultimately, it was reported that his profit on the transaction almost reached $2 billion. As a result, he is famously known as the "the man who broke the Bank of England."
By leveraging the value of his fund, Soros was able to take a $10 billion short position on the pound which made him US$1 billion. This trade is considered one of the greatest trades of all time.
But there is also one big reason why this trade was successfull. Fixe rate of the different currencies in Europe. So strong currencies like RIP Mark was mixed with weak currencies like as well RIP italian Lira...

So attacking weak currencies forced the country to get out of this silly system and that's what happened...

It was an trade based on economic reality but of course having $10 leveraged billion by hand is.... handy
  • #47
  • May 31, 2007 2:58pm May 31, 2007 2:58pm
Quoting Mr demark
now imagine 10,000 players armed to the teeth with ten lots each.

lol, i know i'm dreaming but imagine a cartel of forex traders.....Hedge funds have something like that (believe me, they do)

Wow! It sounds like nice revolution. I want to be part of it.
  • #48
  • May 31, 2007 3:13pm May 31, 2007 3:13pm
There is so much money out there waiting for us to gang together and do something. If we do we will all lose - the benefits of course is that this can serve as a contrarian indicator or better yet, I will say that I am part of the group and only enter an opening position in the opposite direction at your stop loss area - your,..., i mean... our group's failure will be my great success. Just let me in on all the details.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #49
  • May 31, 2007 3:31pm May 31, 2007 3:31pm
It is said that $2 trillion change hands in the forex market daily.

Let's say that 10 major pairs account for 50% of the cash = $ 1trillion

Let's pick 1 pair = $100 billion.

Let's say this pair moves 100 pips this day = $1 billion / pip

Even if this logic is very, very, very wrong, by a factor of 1,000, we would need $1 million here.

Not idea if this is close to the truth. But if so, this thread is over.

Thoughts?
  • #50
  • May 31, 2007 3:40pm May 31, 2007 3:40pm
Quoting Mr demark
Lol. everytime i hear people saying it takes billions and billions to move the market i have to laugh. NOT true!
Laugh all you want. I said there are times when it takes billions.

Read "The New Market Wizards" then see what you think. Bill Lipschutz was short $3 billion. The market moved against him because of a speech. He hit it with another $300 million trying to back it down so he could get out, and the market just sucked it up and kept on. $300 milllion - no effect.

I'm quite sure Darkstar doesn't think he alone moves the market.

Good luck.
  • #51
  • May 31, 2007 3:46pm May 31, 2007 3:46pm
Quoting cesarnc
It is said that $2 trillion change hands in the forex market daily.

Let's say that 10 major pairs account for 50% of the cash = $ 1trillion

Let's pick 1 pair = $100 billion.

Let's say this pair moves 100 pips this day = $1 billion / pip

Not idea if this is close to the truth. But if so, this thread is over.

Thoughts?
You forgot to take in consideration the bid/ask and liquidity at any given time of the day. Forex as a whole(spot, futures, swaps, derivatives, forward contracts) is a 2 trillion market.

Even if its easy to move a pair as a gang, its useless and risky to move the market. A lot of you will suffer from the slippages and would become easy targets for stop hunters.

Anyway, its a very interesting and entertaining thread.
  • #52
  • May 31, 2007 3:52pm May 31, 2007 3:52pm
Quoting kihl
You forgot to take in consideration the bid/ask and liquidity at any given time of the day. Forex as a whole(spot, futures, swaps, derivatives, forward contracts) is a 2 trillion market.

Even if its easy to move a pair as a gang, its useless and risky to move the market. A lot of you will suffer from the slippages and would become easy targets for stop hunters.

Anyway, its a very interesting and entertaining thread.
you're right... and also, even if we move the market, say 2 pips, it won't inspire the whole world for a breakout.
  • #53
  • May 31, 2007 4:50pm May 31, 2007 4:50pm
Quoting Miguel
Sure there is. The gang name is called "Central Banks" "Fed reserve" and "Huge Funds"
Exactly!! and they sure don't like competition. However, they continue to eat it for breakfast. lol
  • #54
  • May 31, 2007 5:46pm May 31, 2007 5:46pm
Quoting blueruby
Laugh all you want. I said there are times when it takes billions.

Read "The New Market Wizards" then see what you think. Bill Lipschutz was short $3 billion. The market moved against him because of a speech. He hit it with another $300 million trying to back it down so he could get out, and the market just sucked it up and kept on. $300 milllion - no effect.

I'm quite sure Darkstar doesn't think he alone moves the market.

Good luck.
Oh gosh man, that was an extreme case. He had badluck because of liquidy and volume as was dicussed earlier in this thread by my friend.

so with everyone listening and trading the speech, 300M is worthless.

if market is quiete, however, then a 300M market order will prob cause some movement...why? cuz there is not enough liquidity to supply a 300M market order and server Millions will get filled several pips away...thus slippage....

now, the only hope after the slippage is to see whether the herd will follow in the same direction.

the 300M market participant would have to liquidate his position slowly so as not to lose his porfits.

THIS IS ALL HYPOTHETIC PEOPLE>> JUST KEEP THE VIEWS COMING
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #55
  • Edited 6:15pm May 31, 2007 6:01pm | Edited 6:15pm
I think you have seen "V for Vendetta" too many times...

Just kidding.

Forex is a $2 trillion market, we retail traders are just a tiny part of it and we FF members are a tiny part of retails traders.
  • #56
  • May 31, 2007 6:18pm May 31, 2007 6:18pm
Quoting Mr demark
Oh gosh man, that was an extreme case. He had badluck because of liquidy and volume as was dicussed earlier in this thread by my friend.

so with everyone listening and trading the speech, 300M is worthless.

if market is quiete, however, then a 300M market order will prob cause some movement...why? cuz there is not enough liquidity to supply a 300M market order and server Millions will get filled several pips away...thus slippage....

now, the only hope after the slippage is to see whether the herd will follow in the same direction.

the 300M market participant would have to liquidate his position slowly so as not to lose his porfits.

THIS IS ALL HYPOTHETIC PEOPLE>> JUST KEEP THE VIEWS COMING
Lol, hope(luck) is the last thing you need when you trade. Actually there is an almost riskless way to profit if you are able to move the market. Unfortunately you need privilege data not available to retail traders.
  • #57
  • May 31, 2007 7:04pm May 31, 2007 7:04pm
The ten most active traders are main banks and account for about 76% of the entire forex trading volume. Another 20% are other world banks and largest pension funds etc. The total volume of all the investment funds including professional traders with more then $5 Mio accounts is about 3%. That leaves about 1% for all the other small cap players like us. So you can see that the market only really moves when the top 10 want to play and there is no chance whatsoever you can compete against any of the top 10 if they want to move the market becuase they ARE the market and the rest are just flies on the camels back.

Its a paradox though becuase you can move the market 2 or 3 pips during the quitest Asia time with about 50 lots but thats becuase no one else is really actively trading. So forex is not a random event at all it depends where the top 10 WANT the market to go. Im sure this will come as a bit of a shock to some of you that thought you were all in this together on an equal footing

Top 10 Traders

1Deutsche Bank19.262UBS AG11.863Citigroup10.394Barclays Capital6.615Royal Bank of Scotland6.436Goldman Sachs5.257HSBC5.048Bank of America3.979JPMorgan Chase3.8910Merrill Lynch3.68
  • #58
  • May 31, 2007 7:06pm May 31, 2007 7:06pm
Quoting cesarnc
you're right... and also, even if we move the market, say 2 pips, it won't inspire the whole world for a breakout.
I'm really surprised,,,
I saw invitations like these every where i go in the net,,,
I don't why people still think that it's reasonable to manufacture a trend,,
In Addition, Idon't know why every body think that FED ECB or BOE take the techs in there account,,
Also I Don't know why the don't believe in the subject "Liquidity Trading" or "Volume Trading",,,
And why some of the traders think that a $10 Mil's can move the market more than 2 pips,,,
Add to what you said,,, let's say $100 Mil's Over $2 Tril's is only 0.00005...
I DON'T KNOW WHYYYYYY???
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #59
  • May 31, 2007 7:08pm May 31, 2007 7:08pm
Quoting Bolt
Top 10 Traders

1Deutsche Bank19.262UBS AG11.863Citigroup10.394Barclays Capital6.615Royal Bank of Scotland6.436Goldman Sachs5.257HSBC5.048Bank of America3.979JPMorgan Chase3.8910Merrill Lynch3.68
I don't know the exact rate,, but i think the corps you just mentioned plus the main central banks are about 80% of the money on the earth!!
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #60
  • Jun 1, 2007 12:00pm Jun 1, 2007 12:00pm
How can you move the market if you cant even move the members of FF? You cant even fully convince yourself of the idea, if you could, you would have done it already ... possible or not possible, you will never be the one to do it because you yourself dont even believe it is possible, nor are you probably willing to do what it really takes to move the market.

There are things you know for certain, and then there are things you think maybee are possible. Other Peoples Money will never follow "Maybee it is possible". And if you are looking for someone else to figure it out for you - forget it - they are long gone, already have a fund and have closed the doors to membership.

Now if you want to move the market in other ways, think outside the box. Flaunt your right to free speach and assembly and use it to cause a financial ruckus. Lets boycott all european products for whatever valid reason you can come up with or japanese or chinese or american - if everyone in FF did that and convinced one or two other people to do that, and they in turn convinced one or two,...well you get the point.

You say the big boys dont care about techs - ok - lets give them some fundies to think about - I personally think it is much easier to influence the market that way. They say the US Dollar is going to shit, lets make the euro go to shit - lets not vacation there for a whole decade, fuck it, lets just conquer the world and take what is ours. You think this sounds crazy - well who owns the US - It certainly isn't the people of the US - Its the banks - everything we have is owed ten times over - our insurance - well... who insures them. -

Wars for territory are won and lost phsically through fource and financially. We have lost our territory financially - we have payed for what was already ours and the interest we owe collectively only secures their future direct ownership of our assets, (the only way to collectively pay for all of this interest and principal is to devalue our money and send 99% of our people further down the shit hole.) And all of this was done while we smiled, ate, drank and celebrated our petty successes, all the while f**d raw dog in the a** by those that were granting us our means and shaking our hands.

But why blame anybody - there are two sides and you choose which side you want to be on - either you're getting f***ed or you are doing the F***ing.

Im a people person, as you can see, so I just sit on the sidelines and bitch and moan while the world goes around. I like to criticize and invent and do nothing about it, that way I can never fully be right, but more importantly never fully be wrong. I am a coward, I know I am being f***ed by all those that are here to protect me and my brothers and I accept it as "thats just the way it is".

Where have all the cross carriers gone. Where are our f***ing balls to look around and fight for what is rightfully ours, hiding behind these f***ing screens thinking we are going to move the market thrrough manipulation by pressing a couple of buttons. Lets move it for real damn it!!!!!

Just an Opinion
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
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