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Great GBP/USD Strategy for Swing Trades

  • #661
  • May 25, 2007 3:56am May 25, 2007 3:56am
Quoting mattfx
No other changes, stochs ignored
I am live testing, so will keep updated although this was the first signal since May 2nd
I see this as a very successful long term stategy
I've just entered this trade solely on the basis of the EMA crossover, ignoring stochastics (and RSI) which both indicated an overbought condition.

So far so good as GBPUSD is trading sideways and optimistic of an upward move.
  • #662
  • May 28, 2007 11:30am May 28, 2007 11:30am
Dear all traders and frens,

Lately i have found out that in order to filter bad trades for this system, one got to regconise the pattern of overall price actions.

You can easily spot if the market is moving sideways, trending or reversal.
Try to zoom out on a 4 hour chart and have a better view of the graph.

For example we have seen cable moving in range for quite few days now.
Once it break out of its range , we should be able to bank in some good pips.

Hope this helps.

VyNNeR
  • #663
  • Edited 2:54pm May 28, 2007 1:47pm | Edited 2:54pm
To Author and Vynner

I've tested this strategy.
Here rules're in pseudo-code:

Buy: ema4 > ema13 && ema13 > ema50 && stok > stod
Close Buy: ema4 < ema13
Sell: ema4 < ema13 && ema13 < ema50 && stod > stok
Close Sell: ema4 > ema13

In Buy and Sell last condition is a filter.

So, H4, GBP, SL 50, TP 200, Jan 1 to May end 2007, with filter:

http://yorsh2007.hotmail.ru/SWT-01-05-2007-GBP-FLT.gif

So, H4, GBP, SL 50, TP 200, Jan 1 to May end 2007, without filter:

http://yorsh2007.hotmail.ru/SWT-01-0...GBP-NONFLT.gif

The best result was in March:

http://yorsh2007.hotmail.ru/SWT-03-0...GBP-NONFLT.gif

And the worst in May

Maybe, I'm doing something wrong?
F.E. conditions should be not-in-the-same-time???
It's easily to correct, if it's meaningful.

Stochastic filter at D1.
A rose will bloom, it then will fade...
  • #664
  • May 30, 2007 7:16am May 30, 2007 7:16am
At first, I had great feeling about this strategy, not any more. If you look at a 4H chart, the entry is very very late most of the time, only we are lucky if the trend in very big. A better method should catch a trend at the first quarter or first half atleast, as 4H chart already leave lots of pips behind. If anyone happily see this strategy even in demo, please post your opinions. Vynner's other short term trading methods are according to his posts, some signal services . Of course you catch big pips (if you have the courage to stay that long with real money), and lose many times with stopping out, with this strategy. Waste of time. Please post any opinions on this, .

Quoting Depfy
To Author and Vynner

I've tested this strategy.
Here rules're in pseudo-code:

Buy: ema4 > ema13 && ema13 > ema50 && stok > stod
Close Buy: ema4 < ema13
Sell: ema4 < ema13 && ema13 < ema50 && stod > stok
Close Sell: ema4 > ema13

In Buy and Sell last condition is a filter.

So, H4, GBP, SL 50, TP 200, Jan 1 to May end 2007, with filter:

http://yorsh2007.hotmail.ru/SWT-01-05-2007-GBP-FLT.gif

So, H4, GBP, SL 50, TP 200, Jan 1 to May end 2007, without filter:

http://yorsh2007.hotmail.ru/SWT-01-0...GBP-NONFLT.gif

The best result was in March:

http://yorsh2007.hotmail.ru/SWT-03-0...GBP-NONFLT.gif

And the worst in May

Maybe, I'm doing something wrong?
F.E. conditions should be not-in-the-same-time???
It's easily to correct, if it's meaningful.

Stochastic filter at D1.
  • #665
  • May 30, 2007 9:43am May 30, 2007 9:43am
Hey yall...

I've been putting Vynner's trading technique to use and have scored whenever I did trade.

But, my personality is the type where I have to see profits come in on a daily basis; so I go for 10 pips daily. Truthfully, I have been able to double my account monthly. Four months ago, I blew my initial $300 startup account and it was at $100, then started using Vynner's technique and got it back up to $300 plus an additional $100 for $400 total in my account.

But, I knew that my personality didn't allow me to see profits sporadically with so much waiting time in between.

I have been using a daytrading technique, which I won't mention here because I don't want to pull peoples hopes up just to have them fall on there faces(hint: I only trade during european session), that allows me to get 10 pips per day. I have been using this certain technique daily and have never had a loss in the last 3 months with it. I have been doubling my account twice per month and I started with the $400. So, now my account is presently sitting at $25,000 this moment(I took out some money and went bought me a cheap labtop at Walmart).

I'm not bragging, but am trying to tell people that certain techniques work for certain people. I have found one that works daily and I found that 10 pips is a no brainer in addition to know that with a 10 pip profit daily, I'm exposed to the market half the time I would be exposed to the market if I were going for 15 or 20 pips daily. The less time I spend in the market, the less time I will have of loosing money in my estimation.

peace,

hilton

Quoting MegaPips
At first, I had great feeling about this strategy, not any more. If you look at a 4H chart, the entry is very very late most of the time, only we are lucky if the trend in very big. A better method should catch a trend at the first quarter or first half atleast, as 4H chart already leave lots of pips behind. If anyone happily see this strategy even in demo, please post your opinions. Vynner's other short term trading methods are according to his posts, some signal services . Of course you catch big pips (if you have the courage to stay that long with real money), and lose many times with stopping out, with this strategy. Waste of time. Please post any opinions on this, .
  • #666
  • May 30, 2007 11:44am May 30, 2007 11:44am
Thanks for your comment, hope this will show some hope on this thread.

Quoting currencytrader
Hey yall...

I've been putting Vynner's trading technique to use and have scored whenever I did trade.

But, my personality is the type where I have to see profits come in on a daily basis; so I go for 10 pips daily. Truthfully, I have been able to double my account monthly. Four months ago, I blew my initial $300 startup account and it was at $100, then started using Vynner's technique and got it back up to $300 plus an additional $100 for $400 total in my account.

But, I knew that my personality didn't allow me to see profits sporadically with so much waiting time in between.

I have been using a daytrading technique, which I won't mention here because I don't want to pull peoples hopes up just to have them fall on there faces(hint: I only trade during european session), that allows me to get 10 pips per day. I have been using this certain technique daily and have never had a loss in the last 3 months with it. I have been doubling my account twice per month and I started with the $400. So, now my account is presently sitting at $25,000 this moment(I took out some money and went bought me a cheap labtop at Walmart).

I'm not bragging, but am trying to tell people that certain techniques work for certain people. I have found one that works daily and I found that 10 pips is a no brainer in addition to know that with a 10 pip profit daily, I'm exposed to the market half the time I would be exposed to the market if I were going for 15 or 20 pips daily. The less time I spend in the market, the less time I will have of loosing money in my estimation.

peace,

hilton
  • #667
  • May 30, 2007 11:59am May 30, 2007 11:59am
Quoting currencytrader
Hey yall...

I've been putting Vynner's trading technique to use and have scored whenever I did trade.

But, my personality is the type where I have to see profits come in on a daily basis; so I go for 10 pips daily. Truthfully, I have been able to double my account monthly. Four months ago, I blew my initial $300 startup account and it was at $100, then started using Vynner's technique and got it back up to $300 plus an additional $100 for $400 total in my account.

But, I knew that my personality didn't allow me to see profits sporadically with so much waiting time in between.

I have been using a daytrading technique, which I won't mention here because I don't want to pull peoples hopes up just to have them fall on there faces(hint: I only trade during european session), that allows me to get 10 pips per day. I have been using this certain technique daily and have never had a loss in the last 3 months with it. I have been doubling my account twice per month and I started with the $400. So, now my account is presently sitting at $25,000 this moment(I took out some money and went bought me a cheap labtop at Walmart).

I'm not bragging, but am trying to tell people that certain techniques work for certain people. I have found one that works daily and I found that 10 pips is a no brainer in addition to know that with a 10 pip profit daily, I'm exposed to the market half the time I would be exposed to the market if I were going for 15 or 20 pips daily. The less time I spend in the market, the less time I will have of loosing money in my estimation.

peace,

hilton
currencytrader,

Congrats on your success. Would you mind starting a new thread and posting the link gere, to explain your "european session 10 pips daytrading technique?"

I am sure many would appreciate your kindness.
  • #668
  • May 30, 2007 12:36pm May 30, 2007 12:36pm
Hi all,

Been lurking around the forums at FF for a while and love the admosphere, this is also my first post.

I have read the Vynner trading system from post 1 to the end and if you look at all the back testing, and I have done back testing of my own, is that the system give's you an average of 150+ pips a month, if you take into account late exits which should have been executed earlier. Not bad at all if you consider the time span for a trade and what was mentioned earlier is that I am in for the long haul.

The only way I see it is that you take what the market gives you so in this system if the 4 EMA and the 13 EMA cross you are out, correct me if i'm wrong, so I do not understand why Megapips would TP 200. I would just like to ad what was discussed in a previous post and I have back tested this with success is to trade 2 accounts, take 20 pips in the same direction for the one and to let the other trade run.

Just my 2c

Thanks for a great forum
Schaune
  • #669
  • May 30, 2007 1:24pm May 30, 2007 1:24pm
Quoting VyNNeR
Dear all traders and frens,

Lately i have found out that in order to filter bad trades for this system, one got to regconise the pattern of overall price actions.

You can easily spot if the market is moving sideways, trending or reversal.
Try to zoom out on a 4 hour chart and have a better view of the graph.

For example we have seen cable moving in range for quite few days now.
Once it break out of its range , we should be able to bank in some good pips.

Hope this helps.

VyNNeR
I have found that this method works well if you don't force any trades. Like any system, you'll have losing trades, but if you consider the big picture like VyNNeR suggests, you'll have success. Look at longer term trendwalls, fib retracements and extensions, etc.

If you are trying to use this as your only trading style, you might have a hard time. This is only good for 2 or 3 trades a month, more or less, and it works as part of an overall trading regimen. I've tried to fine tune the entries using different methods, and had mixed results. That kind of defeats the purpose of this anyway, which as far as I can tell is to try and catch the trend and ride it up or down. This is actually a lot like a method I paid a lot of money to learn. It doesn't have all the bells and whistles and maybe produces fewer trades, but the concept is sound.

Just scroll through the 4 hour charts once a day until you find one that looks close to crossing. Check to see that the daily stoch is moving in the same direction as the impending cross, and determine if you are close to any significant support or resistance. Figure out when you think the cross is going to occur, come back to the chart then, and if everything looks good, just get in. Remember, it's not how many winners or losers you have, it's how much you make at the end. You could lose 3 out of 4 of these and still wind up a couple of hundred pips ahead.

Thanks VyNNeR for sharing this with us.

Richard
  • #670
  • May 31, 2007 3:03am May 31, 2007 3:03am
Quoting currencytrader
Hey yall...

I've been putting Vynner's trading technique to use and have scored whenever I did trade.

But, my personality is the type where I have to see profits come in on a daily basis; so I go for 10 pips daily. Truthfully, I have been able to double my account monthly. Four months ago, I blew my initial $300 startup account and it was at $100, then started using Vynner's technique and got it back up to $300 plus an additional $100 for $400 total in my account.

But, I knew that my personality didn't allow me to see profits sporadically with so much waiting time in between.

I have been using a daytrading technique, which I won't mention here because I don't want to pull peoples hopes up just to have them fall on there faces(hint: I only trade during european session), that allows me to get 10 pips per day. I have been using this certain technique daily and have never had a loss in the last 3 months with it. I have been doubling my account twice per month and I started with the $400. So, now my account is presently sitting at $25,000 this moment(I took out some money and went bought me a cheap labtop at Walmart).

I'm not bragging, but am trying to tell people that certain techniques work for certain people. I have found one that works daily and I found that 10 pips is a no brainer in addition to know that with a 10 pip profit daily, I'm exposed to the market half the time I would be exposed to the market if I were going for 15 or 20 pips daily. The less time I spend in the market, the less time I will have of loosing money in my estimation.

peace,

hilton
Hey dude, I'm all ears and eyes...I'm currently paper trading a few short and medium term systems that I've acquired from these threads.

I'd greatly appreciate if you could share your strategy with us so that I can see if it sits well with me too.

cheers
  • #671
  • May 31, 2007 3:08am May 31, 2007 3:08am
Quoting MegaPips
At first, I had great feeling about this strategy, not any more. If you look at a 4H chart, the entry is very very late most of the time, only we are lucky if the trend in very big. A better method should catch a trend at the first quarter or first half atleast, as 4H chart already leave lots of pips behind. If anyone happily see this strategy even in demo, please post your opinions. Vynner's other short term trading methods are according to his posts, some signal services . Of course you catch big pips (if you have the courage to stay that long with real money), and lose many times with stopping out, with this strategy. Waste of time. Please post any opinions on this, .
I shared your experience....got excited when I saw the entry...then watched as the price kept going (gradually) down, down, down.....until stopped out.
Ok, life goes on....one trade is not enough to fully test this system...so let's look for another entry, then another, and another....
  • #672
  • May 31, 2007 3:55am May 31, 2007 3:55am
Thanks Mikelath, will look forward to more trades. .




Quoting mikelath
I shared your experience....got excited when I saw the entry...then watched as the price kept going (gradually) down, down, down.....until stopped out.
Ok, life goes on....one trade is not enough to fully test this system...so let's look for another entry, then another, and another....
  • #673
  • May 31, 2007 9:48am May 31, 2007 9:48am
Hey yall,

I got 5 emails in my email box asking me how I trade the european session for 10 pips per day. There is one day a week where it doesn't work. But, instead of trading it and taking a loss on the chin, my system allows me to stay out.

For all of you folks who keeps emailing me, here's what you need to do(and this is what I did to help myself); instead of asking for more and more systems to test and trade, what you need to do is look at all the systems that are posted on this whole board. Secondly, look at what is working and what is not working, then take out those things that actually work in the real world of trading. Since I like to trade the gbp/usd, I looked at all the systems that delt with the gbp/usd ONLY! I took out what worked in all the systems, then I created my own system and personalized it to my personality.

So, even if I gave you my system, you would still not be able to trade it just like you're not able to satisfactorily trade the system(s) that you're trying to trade now. What you guys need to do is just look at what works for the currency pair that you want to trade and take those things out of every system that is posted on this board and then personalize what works for your personality.

Here's an example: I trade the 5 minute chart for the gbp/usd because it fits my personality(Vynner's trading technique worked for me but didn't fit my personality so I dropped it). So, what I did was I went to every daytrading system on this board, thread by thread, and tested what actually worked in the real world of trading for months. When I saw my results I went with it. Once this testing period was done, I then went with the big boys and started using what actually worked to my benefit. And, in 3 months I brought up my $400 account to $25,000 by going for 10 pips per day 4 days a week and sometimes even 5 days per week. I always double my money twice per month; but sometimes, I'll get unlucky and only be able to double my money in a 3 week period and then make 50% more on that amount of money on the 4th week.

Find something that works for who you are and then back test what works 4 out of 5 days during the week; even with big news on those days.

It can be done, but only the top 5% knows about it. The battle is won, nearly 100% of the time when you understand you. And, nobody knows you better than yourself, which is why systems that work half the time for someone doesn't work the other half; because systems don't understand a person.

I won't be online for a week because I'm moving to Honolulu, Hawaii from Missouri. I'll be back on line next week so if you guys want to post something, then by all means please do it....

peace,,

h.m
  • #674
  • May 31, 2007 9:55am May 31, 2007 9:55am
Quoting currencytrader
Hey yall,

I got 5 emails in my email box asking me how I trade the european session for 10 pips per day. There is one day a week where it doesn't work. But, instead of trading it and taking a loss on the chin, my system allows me to stay out.

For all of you folks who keeps emailing me, here's what you need to do(and this is what I did to help myself); instead of asking for more and more systems to test and trade, what you need to do is look at all the systems that are posted on this whole board. Secondly, look at what is working and what is not working, then take out those things that actually work in the real world of trading. Since I like to trade the gbp/usd, I looked at all the systems that delt with the gbp/usd ONLY! I took out what worked in all the systems, then I created my own system and personalized it to my personality.

So, even if I gave you my system, you would still not be able to trade it just like you're not able to satisfactorily trade the system(s) that you're trying to trade now. What you guys need to do is just look at what works for the currency pair that you want to trade and take those things out of every system that is posted on this board and then personalize what works for your personality.

Here's an example: I trade the 5 minute chart for the gbp/usd because it fits my personality(Vynner's trading technique worked for me but didn't fit my personality so I dropped it). So, what I did was I went to every daytrading system on this board, thread by thread, and tested what actually worked in the real world of trading for months. When I saw my results I went with it. Once this testing period was done, I then went with the big boys and started using what actually worked to my benefit. And, in 3 months I brought up my $400 account to $25,000 by going for 10 pips per day 4 days a week and sometimes even 5 days per week. I always double my money twice per month; but sometimes, I'll get unlucky and only be able to double my money in a 3 week period and then make 50% more on that amount of money on the 4th week.

Find something that works for who you are and then back test what works 4 out of 5 days during the week; even with big news on those days.

It can be done, but only the top 5% knows about it. The battle is won, nearly 100% of the time when you understand you. And, nobody knows you better than yourself, which is why systems that work half the time for someone doesn't work the other half; because systems don't understand a person.

I won't be online for a week because I'm moving to Honolulu, Hawaii from Missouri. I'll be back on line next week so if you guys want to post something, then by all means please do it....

peace,,

h.m
Thank you for your reply. Which are the 4 days you trade?
  • #675
  • May 31, 2007 10:39am May 31, 2007 10:39am
Hi all, First of all thanks for currencytrader for his encouraging posts. Here is a nice 5min system which can produce 10 pips or more a day, and risk is very less. Actually I started to do demo on it and so far positive. .

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=22680
  • #676
  • Jun 1, 2007 9:34am Jun 1, 2007 9:34am
Jeff,

You ask me "what are the 4 days I trade"?...

Well, to be frank and honest with you, it shouldn't make any difference. If a person is willing to trade the first 4 days of the week, then the 5th day is a no brainer.

My concern is not what days are the best to trade, because in reality there are no best days.

I let the market determine what the best days are. People who try to figure out what the best days are, are the very same people who place there assumptions above the reality of what the market does.

And, as we all know, the reality of this game is that NO ASSUMPTIONS SHOULD BE MADE BASED ON WHAT THE MARKET SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT DO.

The reality is that the market will do what it wants to do and if you understand the way your personality allows you to trade, then the only other thing to figure out is what works and what doesn't work in the PRESENT moment; and not what should work in the next hour.

As quagmire, the Jedi night, would say, "stay alert in the moment".

And, although Star Wars is pulp fiction, there are some truths that apply even to fiction.....

h.m

Quoting jeffreytp
Thank you for your reply. Which are the 4 days you trade?
  • #677
  • Jun 1, 2007 9:46am Jun 1, 2007 9:46am
Megapips,

With a handle name like that if you're not making 10 pips a day, I'll have to leap across these high lines and "pimp slap" ya..hehe...just kidding.

Seriously though, that was one of the threads that I looked at for the gbp/usd and found that it didn't fit my view of how I saw that market. But, what that thread did prove was that the market does make certain moves every day for the gbp/usd due to the volatility of that currency pair.

What I did was took a certain viewpoint from that technique and combined it with several dozen other gbp/usd daytrading techniques and created a system that worked for both my personality and my eyes.

h.m

Quoting MegaPips
Hi all, First of all thanks for currencytrader for his encouraging posts. Here is a nice 5min system which can produce 10 pips or more a day, and risk is very less. Actually I started to do demo on it and so far positive. .

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=22680
  • #678
  • Jun 1, 2007 10:18am Jun 1, 2007 10:18am
Thanks currencytrader for your reply, as you indicated, everyone's trading style should be different according to their knowledge, risk level and so many other factors. There cannot be any single system which fits all. Even big traders try to learn and search something new everyday. Thanks again.

Quoting currencytrader
Megapips,

With a handle name like that if you're not making 10 pips a day, I'll have to leap across these high lines and "pimp slap" ya..hehe...just kidding.

Seriously though, that was one of the threads that I looked at for the gbp/usd and found that it didn't fit my view of how I saw that market. But, what that thread did prove was that the market does make certain moves every day for the gbp/usd due to the volatility of that currency pair.

What I did was took a certain viewpoint from that technique and combined it with several dozen other gbp/usd daytrading techniques and created a system that worked for both my personality and my eyes.

h.m
  • #679
  • Edited 6:21pm Jun 4, 2007 10:30am | Edited 6:21pm
I have been testing the Linear Regression Indicator, LRI at 13 setting, on the current system with good results, all other indicators remain in place. By adding the LRI you assure yourself of better entries and exit. The LRI, which I have used for years, was not available on MT4 but a charitable FF sole gave it to me and I will try to post it here (first experience tell me if it does not work). As mentionned, the setting should be 13.

The LRI can be called a supercharged MA as it follows price action much more closely and indicates where price should be rather than averaging them, it is a predictive indicator. It works much like a Bol. band as the market crosses above or bollow the LRI. It can also be used as a signal line (ex: when it crosses a long term EMA as the 50 we are currently using).

I am including the indicator with a chart (save and open with Paint)

Meanwhile, I also include a definition of the LRI and some link for further study:

Linear Regression Indicator

The Linear Regression Indicator plots the trend of a security's price over time. That trend is determined by calculating a Linear Regression Trendline using the least squares method. This ensures the minimum distance between the data points and a Linear Regression Trendline.
Unlike the straight Linear Regression Trendline, the Linear Regression indicator plots the ending values of multiple Linear Regression trendlines. Any point along the Linear Regression Indicator will be equal to the ending value of a Linear Regression Trendline, but the result looks more like a Moving Average.
Unlike a Moving Average, the Linear Regression Indicator does not exhibit as much delay. As the Linear Regression Indicator is fitting a line to the data points rather than simply averaging them, the Linear Regression line becomes more responsive to changes in prices. The Linear Regression Indicator can be thought of as a forecast of the tomorrow's price plotted today. When prices are persistently higher or lower than the forecasted price, expect them to quickly return to more realistic levels. The Linear Regression Indicator shows where prices should be trading on a statistical basis and any excessive deviation from the regression line is likely to be short-lived.

http://ta-glossary.netfirms.com/taglossary-L.htm

NOTE: THE CURRENT LRI INDICATOR PROGRAM DOES NOT HOLD IT'S LINE TICKNESS SETTING, IF SOMEONE COULD CORRECT THIS, IT WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 linreg.mq4   2 KB | 604 downloads
  • #680
  • Jun 4, 2007 2:19pm Jun 4, 2007 2:19pm
i've been reading this system since the first time it posted. I've seen some good trades and some bad trades using this system. I think all system have both good trade and bad trade.

Vynner system has been really helpful for me to improving my own technique.

Thanks to vynner for sharing this.
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